Post by Commissioner on Apr 9, 2024 19:05:38 GMT -5
This will be a long post, best read, if at all, on the computer rather than your phone. The question is, where does Antoine Davis rank among all-time Titan greats.
Four years ago, after his sophomore season, I put him 19th, just behind Tony Tolbert. As I noted at that time, rankings are always subject to some degree of whim--there are players I'd rank higher now than I than did, and Players I'd rank lower. But Antoine is, to me, one of the particularly difficult ones.
You might read this post, from when I created that top 100 list, to consider the type of criteria I used: udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/20758/thread.
Let's first look at the cold, statistical record. On the Titan all-time lists, AD ranks:
#1 in games played;
#1 in points scored;
#1 in scoring average;
#1 in field goals made;
#1 in 3 point field goals made;
#1 in free throws made;
#1 in free throw percentage;
#3 in assists;
#5 in steals;
#10 in assists per game;
#12 in three point percentage;
In NCAA history, he ranks
#2 in points scored
#1 in 3 point field goals
In terms of Titan single season performances, AD ranks:
Minutes played: 1st (2023), and 8th (2019)
Minutes per game: 1st (2021), 3rd (2019), 4th (2023), 6th (2022), and 7th (202)
Points: 1st (2023), 3rd (2019), 7th (2020), and 9th (2022)
Points per game: 2nd (2023), 4th (2019), 7th (2020), 8th (2021), and 9th (2022)
Field goals made: 1st (2023, tied with Terry Duerod) and 8th (2019, tied with Bill Ebben)
3 Pointers made: 1st (2023), 3rd (2019), 4th (2022), (6th 2020), and 9th (2021).
3 Point Percentage: 5th (2023), 8th (2019; and 9th (2022).
Free throws made: 6th (2023)
Free throw percentage: 1st (2021), 4th (2023), 5th (2020), 7th (2022), and 9th (2019).
We should also note that AD shows up pretty well in some of the modern, "sabermetric"-type stats, such as "offensive win shares" (4 of the top 10 Titan seasons since this stat began being recorded in 1996; the best is Rashad in 2001, followed by AD in 2023); 4 of the top 10 seasons for "efficiency rating"--take that, you who criticize AD as a mere "volume shooter,"--since this stat was first recorded in 2010 (AD's 2023 season ranks #1, followed by Ray McCallum's 2013); the second best "+/- box" (for 2023; first is Ray's 2013--this stat recorded since 2011). Maybe you like these types of stats, maybe you don't, maybe you've never heard of them, but AD shows up pretty well.
If you just look at that raw data, you'd likely think: "Has to be greatest ever." But I don't think anyone really thinks that.
Some other markers:
He was a 5x (!) 1st team all-conference selection, and 2x conference Player of the Year--Rashad is the only other 2x Titan winner of POY, and only other 3x Titan First Team All-Conference selection. He was AP Honorable Mention All-American in 2021 and 2023, and Basketball Writers Assn 3rd Team selection in 2023. That makes him the first Titan to be a "teamed" All-America by one of the NCAA recognized awards since Terry Tyler was a 3rd team Helms selection in 1978, and the first Titan to gain All-American recognition twice since Dave DeBusschere.
So surely, combined with the raw data, he's got to be one of the Top 5--or at least top 10, right? I mean, he's the friggin' NCAA #2 all-time scorer, and #1 all-time in three pointers. But I'll bet many, perhaps most of us, wouldn't put him in the top 5, or even the top 10. For reference, here was the Top 10 as I ranked them in 2020:
1. Dave DeBusschere
2. Spencer Haywood
3. John Long
4. Terry Tyler
5. Bill Ebben
6. Rashad Phillips
7. Guy Sparrow
8. Norm Swanson
9. Dorie Murrey
10. Terry Duerod
So we come to all the "buts" and qualifiers:
1. He got a 5th season of eligibility. Do I give him credit for that? How much? AD was able to play 144 games as a Titan, first on the all-time list. Second are Rashad and Terrell Riggs, who despite long conference tournament and post-season tournament runs, played in just 129 games. But surely longevity and more games has to count for something.
2. He didn't win. But how fair is that? I mean, doesn't the supporting cast matter? Dave DeBusschere won with the Titans, and he won with the Knicks. But he didn't win with the Pistons. Was he not very good those years? Yeah, in the end, winning is what it is all about, not individual stats and honors. But it is a team game. And just look at the Titans. Sure, Jayden Stone wasn't supported with anyone this year as talented as Josh McFolley, Bol Kuol, Madut Akec, Noah Waterman or Matt Johnson, but Stone is a pretty good player and the Titans went 1-31. Pro sports are full of guys who for years were recognized as good, but knocked because their teams didn't win. Then they get traded to a better team, and suddenly they're in the championship. Matt Stafford, anyone? Still, winning was at least a secondary criteria when I ranked them, and it certainly doesn't count in AD's favor.
3. The schedule. Mike Davis had a rep for playing tough schedules, but actually, the Titans' schedules the past 6 years were not strong. We played good non-conference schedules, but very few ranked teams. But the main culprit was simply a weak Horizon. Basketball Reference ranks strength of schedule back to 1950. One can quibble with their methodology, and you have to note that they simply don't include non-D1 games, which the Titans often played in past years (and frankly, in the 1950s right through the very early 80s, it was common for even strong D-1 programs to play multiple non-D1 opponents each year, sometimes as many as 5 or 6. In 4 years at UD, for example, Dick Vitale's teams played 18 games against non-D1 opponents. His teams still were very good, but winning 4-5 games a year against non-D1 teams didn't hurt the W-L record. (Of course, back to point 2--shift three defeats into wins against non-D1 teams, and AD would have closed with 3 straight winning seasons).
Anyway, you want to know the 3 weakest Titan schedules since 1950, per Basketball Reference? They are, in order from the weakest, 2021, 2022, and 2023. (BTW, 2024 is the 4th weakest). Titan schedules grew generally weaker after the MCC sort of fell apart and was reconstituted in the mid-1990s, but they were still pretty competitive with historic Titan schedules--especially given fewer non-D1 games, which as noted, Basketball Reference doesn't count in its ratings. But after Butler left the HL and the league rapidly declined, they grew significantly weaker. (For those interested, 14 of the 15 toughest Titan schedules were played between 1952 and 1971; the outlier was Don Sicko's under-appreciated 1985 team, which played the 5th toughest schedule of Titan teams since 1950).
Well, no matter how you cut it, AD wasn't facing the calibre of competition that DeBusschere, Haywood, Ebben etc. or even Willie Green and Ray McCallum, were up against.
4. I noted 4 yrs ago that I give a lot of emphasis to post-season awards, because I figure that--for all the flaws and errors of post-season award voting--for the most part it still represents the reasonably-educated assessment of people whose job involves following the game. But I don't really think anyone thinks AD was among the 15 best players in the country in 2023--the Writers named him a third team selection just as sort of a career tribute--"well done, young man." Still honorable mention was probably deserved--AD was probably in the 40 or 50 best players in the country.
5. The bad stats. AD took a lot of shots, and his overall shooting percentages aren't bad, but they really aren't great. Then there's the turnover stats.
Anyway, AD's stats certainly mark him as one of the greatest Titans, but for these and perhaps other reasons, he just doesn't seem on par with the older legends.
If I were re-ranking today, I'd probably stick by my Top 10, shown above, and also my 11 and 12 picks (Ray McCallum, Willie Green). I'd probably slot AD in the #13 position, ahead of players like Archie Tullos, Dick Dzik, and Charlie North. It seems kind of weird, that a little school like UD, with a lot of history but not anything like that of the typical P6 school, should have the NCAA's #2 All-Time scorer, and just rank him #13, but call it the eye test or whatever you want, I think the others rate higher.
By the way, here were my second 10 from 2020. I'd probably have most of these guys--I think at least 8--still in the second 10 today, although I'd probably move these rankings around were I to re-do them today.
11. Ray McCallum
12. Willie Green
13. Archie Tullos
14. Dick Dzik
15. Joe Kopicki
16. Charlie North
17. Jermaine Jackson, Sr.
18. Tony Tolbert
19. AD
20. Frank Russell
What do others think? Where does AD rank in the pantheon of Titan greats?
Four years ago, after his sophomore season, I put him 19th, just behind Tony Tolbert. As I noted at that time, rankings are always subject to some degree of whim--there are players I'd rank higher now than I than did, and Players I'd rank lower. But Antoine is, to me, one of the particularly difficult ones.
You might read this post, from when I created that top 100 list, to consider the type of criteria I used: udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/20758/thread.
Let's first look at the cold, statistical record. On the Titan all-time lists, AD ranks:
#1 in games played;
#1 in points scored;
#1 in scoring average;
#1 in field goals made;
#1 in 3 point field goals made;
#1 in free throws made;
#1 in free throw percentage;
#3 in assists;
#5 in steals;
#10 in assists per game;
#12 in three point percentage;
In NCAA history, he ranks
#2 in points scored
#1 in 3 point field goals
In terms of Titan single season performances, AD ranks:
Minutes played: 1st (2023), and 8th (2019)
Minutes per game: 1st (2021), 3rd (2019), 4th (2023), 6th (2022), and 7th (202)
Points: 1st (2023), 3rd (2019), 7th (2020), and 9th (2022)
Points per game: 2nd (2023), 4th (2019), 7th (2020), 8th (2021), and 9th (2022)
Field goals made: 1st (2023, tied with Terry Duerod) and 8th (2019, tied with Bill Ebben)
3 Pointers made: 1st (2023), 3rd (2019), 4th (2022), (6th 2020), and 9th (2021).
3 Point Percentage: 5th (2023), 8th (2019; and 9th (2022).
Free throws made: 6th (2023)
Free throw percentage: 1st (2021), 4th (2023), 5th (2020), 7th (2022), and 9th (2019).
We should also note that AD shows up pretty well in some of the modern, "sabermetric"-type stats, such as "offensive win shares" (4 of the top 10 Titan seasons since this stat began being recorded in 1996; the best is Rashad in 2001, followed by AD in 2023); 4 of the top 10 seasons for "efficiency rating"--take that, you who criticize AD as a mere "volume shooter,"--since this stat was first recorded in 2010 (AD's 2023 season ranks #1, followed by Ray McCallum's 2013); the second best "+/- box" (for 2023; first is Ray's 2013--this stat recorded since 2011). Maybe you like these types of stats, maybe you don't, maybe you've never heard of them, but AD shows up pretty well.
If you just look at that raw data, you'd likely think: "Has to be greatest ever." But I don't think anyone really thinks that.
Some other markers:
He was a 5x (!) 1st team all-conference selection, and 2x conference Player of the Year--Rashad is the only other 2x Titan winner of POY, and only other 3x Titan First Team All-Conference selection. He was AP Honorable Mention All-American in 2021 and 2023, and Basketball Writers Assn 3rd Team selection in 2023. That makes him the first Titan to be a "teamed" All-America by one of the NCAA recognized awards since Terry Tyler was a 3rd team Helms selection in 1978, and the first Titan to gain All-American recognition twice since Dave DeBusschere.
So surely, combined with the raw data, he's got to be one of the Top 5--or at least top 10, right? I mean, he's the friggin' NCAA #2 all-time scorer, and #1 all-time in three pointers. But I'll bet many, perhaps most of us, wouldn't put him in the top 5, or even the top 10. For reference, here was the Top 10 as I ranked them in 2020:
1. Dave DeBusschere
2. Spencer Haywood
3. John Long
4. Terry Tyler
5. Bill Ebben
6. Rashad Phillips
7. Guy Sparrow
8. Norm Swanson
9. Dorie Murrey
10. Terry Duerod
So we come to all the "buts" and qualifiers:
1. He got a 5th season of eligibility. Do I give him credit for that? How much? AD was able to play 144 games as a Titan, first on the all-time list. Second are Rashad and Terrell Riggs, who despite long conference tournament and post-season tournament runs, played in just 129 games. But surely longevity and more games has to count for something.
2. He didn't win. But how fair is that? I mean, doesn't the supporting cast matter? Dave DeBusschere won with the Titans, and he won with the Knicks. But he didn't win with the Pistons. Was he not very good those years? Yeah, in the end, winning is what it is all about, not individual stats and honors. But it is a team game. And just look at the Titans. Sure, Jayden Stone wasn't supported with anyone this year as talented as Josh McFolley, Bol Kuol, Madut Akec, Noah Waterman or Matt Johnson, but Stone is a pretty good player and the Titans went 1-31. Pro sports are full of guys who for years were recognized as good, but knocked because their teams didn't win. Then they get traded to a better team, and suddenly they're in the championship. Matt Stafford, anyone? Still, winning was at least a secondary criteria when I ranked them, and it certainly doesn't count in AD's favor.
3. The schedule. Mike Davis had a rep for playing tough schedules, but actually, the Titans' schedules the past 6 years were not strong. We played good non-conference schedules, but very few ranked teams. But the main culprit was simply a weak Horizon. Basketball Reference ranks strength of schedule back to 1950. One can quibble with their methodology, and you have to note that they simply don't include non-D1 games, which the Titans often played in past years (and frankly, in the 1950s right through the very early 80s, it was common for even strong D-1 programs to play multiple non-D1 opponents each year, sometimes as many as 5 or 6. In 4 years at UD, for example, Dick Vitale's teams played 18 games against non-D1 opponents. His teams still were very good, but winning 4-5 games a year against non-D1 teams didn't hurt the W-L record. (Of course, back to point 2--shift three defeats into wins against non-D1 teams, and AD would have closed with 3 straight winning seasons).
Anyway, you want to know the 3 weakest Titan schedules since 1950, per Basketball Reference? They are, in order from the weakest, 2021, 2022, and 2023. (BTW, 2024 is the 4th weakest). Titan schedules grew generally weaker after the MCC sort of fell apart and was reconstituted in the mid-1990s, but they were still pretty competitive with historic Titan schedules--especially given fewer non-D1 games, which as noted, Basketball Reference doesn't count in its ratings. But after Butler left the HL and the league rapidly declined, they grew significantly weaker. (For those interested, 14 of the 15 toughest Titan schedules were played between 1952 and 1971; the outlier was Don Sicko's under-appreciated 1985 team, which played the 5th toughest schedule of Titan teams since 1950).
Well, no matter how you cut it, AD wasn't facing the calibre of competition that DeBusschere, Haywood, Ebben etc. or even Willie Green and Ray McCallum, were up against.
4. I noted 4 yrs ago that I give a lot of emphasis to post-season awards, because I figure that--for all the flaws and errors of post-season award voting--for the most part it still represents the reasonably-educated assessment of people whose job involves following the game. But I don't really think anyone thinks AD was among the 15 best players in the country in 2023--the Writers named him a third team selection just as sort of a career tribute--"well done, young man." Still honorable mention was probably deserved--AD was probably in the 40 or 50 best players in the country.
5. The bad stats. AD took a lot of shots, and his overall shooting percentages aren't bad, but they really aren't great. Then there's the turnover stats.
Anyway, AD's stats certainly mark him as one of the greatest Titans, but for these and perhaps other reasons, he just doesn't seem on par with the older legends.
If I were re-ranking today, I'd probably stick by my Top 10, shown above, and also my 11 and 12 picks (Ray McCallum, Willie Green). I'd probably slot AD in the #13 position, ahead of players like Archie Tullos, Dick Dzik, and Charlie North. It seems kind of weird, that a little school like UD, with a lot of history but not anything like that of the typical P6 school, should have the NCAA's #2 All-Time scorer, and just rank him #13, but call it the eye test or whatever you want, I think the others rate higher.
By the way, here were my second 10 from 2020. I'd probably have most of these guys--I think at least 8--still in the second 10 today, although I'd probably move these rankings around were I to re-do them today.
11. Ray McCallum
12. Willie Green
13. Archie Tullos
14. Dick Dzik
15. Joe Kopicki
16. Charlie North
17. Jermaine Jackson, Sr.
18. Tony Tolbert
19. AD
20. Frank Russell
What do others think? Where does AD rank in the pantheon of Titan greats?