Post by Commissioner on Aug 20, 2013 9:05:03 GMT -5
Here are Horizon teams ranked by last year's out-of-conference schedule strength, per Live-RPI.com, including both outgoing member Loyola and incoming member Oakland. The number after the school is the school's national ranking for non-con SOS:
[1. Oakland 20]
2. Detroit 22
3. Cleveland State 133
4. UIC 188
5. Valparaiso 219
6. Green Bay 243
7. Milwaukee 279
8. Youngstown State 290
9. Wright State 333
10. Loyola 340
Here are 2012 Horizon Non-Con SOS ranks:
1. Green Bay 21
2. Butler 28
[Oakland 47]
3. Cleveland State 54
4. Milwaukee 131
5. Valparaiso 170
6. Wright State 180
7. Detroit 207
8. Youngstown State 250
9. UIC 282
10. Loyola 339
Some points:
1. This does not include non-DI games. So you could, for example, view YSU's slate as even weaker, since they played 3 D-III opponents, or Detroit and Oakland as not quite so tough, since both played two D-III opponents.
2. Oakland's SOS is a huge upgrade over Loyola. Obviously, this year's schedules are different, but Oakland has scheduled even tougher. It's not at all inconceivable that when all is said and done they'll have played the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, whereas Loyola consistently played one of the 20 weakest schedules in the country.
3. Oakland's non-con schedule can be good for the Horizon, but not necessarily. Obviously, it moves the conference up the SOS rankings. Even if Oakland loses most or all of those games, it will probably help their RPI, because they'll get extra points for playing on the road, and because the biggest factor in RPI is opponent's W-L record, which will be very good. But unless they win 3 or 4 of those games, it will quite likely hurt other Horizon teams' RPIs.
Why is that? Because, as I've explained elsewhere ad nauseam, Opponents' W-L is the biggest factor in RPI (and also because the bonus for playing on the road doesn't carry through - that is, Oakland gets a bonus for playing on the road, but when UIC or CSU plays Oakland, they don't get a bonus because Oakland's non-conference losses were on the road). If Oakland goes 0-6 in its big games - a distinct possibility - this will be much worse for other Horizon teams' RPI than if it had gone 4-2 against weaker competition, with a couple games at home.
Suppose, for simplicity's sake, Oakland goes 8-8 in Horizon play, winning all its home games and losing all its road games. Let's further suppose it goes 1-5 in its "big 6" games, and 5-1 in its other non-conference games. Oakland's W-L pct. will be, of course, .500. Since each Horizon team plays Oakland twice, and split its games with Oakland, Oakland's W-L will be .5000, and it will factor twice into each other Horizon team's RPI. Now suppose Oakland played weaker competition in those 6 games, and went 5-1. Each Horizon team would get 2 games against a team (Oakland) with a W-L pct. of .6538. As opponent's W-L pct. is the biggest single factor in RPI, you can see how it will hurt each other team's RPI.
Of course, there are then lots of variables. If Oakland wins a 2 or 3 or 4 games, the added PR will be worth a lot to the league, and the effect on RPI will be less. Conversely, if Oakland played weaker competition but lost anyway - say losing by 4 at Northern Iowa rather than 15 at UNC; losing to Kent State at home by 2 rather than losing to UCLA on the road by 20, and so on - then the other Horizon schools will be better for Oakland getting blown away by high majors than losing narrowly to mid-majors. So there are lots of variables, and since we'll never know who else might have been scheduled and how Oakland might have done, we'll never know ultimately if other Horizon schools benefitted or not.
Of course there can be other benefits to the league from such a schedule as well - TV exposure; the impact of an upset; selling recruits on playing big time teams in big time arenas, etc. But we cannot assume that the Horizon's RPI benefits from Oakland's murderer's row scheduling philosophy.
4. That leads to an interesting point about the league. When Butler left, a lot of people thought that the Horizon would fall dramatically in the conference rankings, but it did not. The League's RPI actually increased from .4933 to .4963, and it moved from 13th to 12th in the conference RPI rankings. This was almost entirely the result of weak non-conference scheduling.
Notice the tremendous decline in SOS up and down the league (excluding Oakland, which was not in the league). At every rank, the SOS was stronger in 2012 than in 2013 - and sometimes a whole lot stronger. Except for Detroit, no other team in the conference last year was in the top 100 in non-conference SOS, only Cleveland State also made the top 150, and only UIC was also in the top 200. Wright State and Loyola were in the bottom dozen schools in non-con SOS, and YSU and Milwaukee in the bottom 20%. The Horizon ranked a dismal 29th of 32 conferences in non-conference SOS.
So how did the conference RPI go up? Mainly because the league kicked ass against those weak schedules. The league's non-conference winning percentage went from .4811 to .5304, a very significant increase. And this non-conference winning percentage was then recycled over and over through the league, as each time league members played their higher winning percentage factored into each other's opponents' winning percentage - which, remember, is the biggest component of RPI. Plus, the shiny W-L records - including wins over D-III teams - helped UIC, YSU, Green Bay and even WSU land spots in post-season play, since the CIT and CBI like the big win totals as much or more as RPI. And having 6 teams in post-season play got the league some attention.
What does this mean for 2013-14? It suggests that the Horizon's resilience post-Butler may have been illusory, the result of scheduling lots of patsies for a year. But maybe not. The Horizon was 3-16 last year against top 50 RPI squads. In 2012 it was just 2-19 against top 50 opponents. So we will see how our conference does this year, assuming tougher schedules (though it's not clear schedules will be tougher - Detroit's is definitely weaker, though, as noted, Oakland is a big upgrade over Loyola in scheduling. Nobody else has finalized a non-conference schedule, although Green Bay has a pretty good start with games against Wisconsin and Virginia (at home, no less) and the Great Alaska Shootout.)
5. Wright State almost certainly benefited from its weak non-con schedule in 2013. WSU, recall, was coming off a 12-19 season and 7th place finish in 2012. It had lost what it thought would be it's best returning player, Julius Mays, who transferred to Kentucky, where he led the Wildcats in minutes played. They had lost 6 of their top 8 rotation players and had no seniors. What was left was a collection of underclassmen, none of whom had shown much except Reggie Arceneaux and arguably Cole Darling. The weak non-conference schedule enable WSU to start off 8-3 before playing a team with an RPI in the top 150 on Dec. 22 (they lost to Cincinnati). That was their only top 150 RPI non-con game except for the bracket buster against Evansville, which they also lost. They then got a favorable early league schedule, opening with 3 straight at home, including two of the weaker teams, CSU and Milwaukee, before facing Loyola on the road. They won all 4. After that, WSU was just 6-7 until the post-season, when the played well, beating UD in the Horizon tournament and Tulsa and Richmond in the CBI. Absent that easy non-conference schedule, however, it's not certain they would have even made the CBI to get those Tulsa and Richmond wins. Almost certainly their weak non-con schedule allowed an inexperienced team to build confidence, get used to playing together, develop in ability, and pad their W-L record. And because Wright State benefited, in this case, at least, the Horizon benefited.
6. For good measure, and so you see that 2012 wasn't a fluke of stronger than usual schedules, here are the 2011 non-con SOS ranks:
1. Butler 17
[Oakland 23]
2. Cleveland State 65
3. Valparaiso 71
4. Milwaukee 113
5. Green Bay 117
6. Wright State 164
7. Youngstown State 245
8. Detroit 250
9. UIC 261
10. Loyola 335
[1. Oakland 20]
2. Detroit 22
3. Cleveland State 133
4. UIC 188
5. Valparaiso 219
6. Green Bay 243
7. Milwaukee 279
8. Youngstown State 290
9. Wright State 333
10. Loyola 340
Here are 2012 Horizon Non-Con SOS ranks:
1. Green Bay 21
2. Butler 28
[Oakland 47]
3. Cleveland State 54
4. Milwaukee 131
5. Valparaiso 170
6. Wright State 180
7. Detroit 207
8. Youngstown State 250
9. UIC 282
10. Loyola 339
Some points:
1. This does not include non-DI games. So you could, for example, view YSU's slate as even weaker, since they played 3 D-III opponents, or Detroit and Oakland as not quite so tough, since both played two D-III opponents.
2. Oakland's SOS is a huge upgrade over Loyola. Obviously, this year's schedules are different, but Oakland has scheduled even tougher. It's not at all inconceivable that when all is said and done they'll have played the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, whereas Loyola consistently played one of the 20 weakest schedules in the country.
3. Oakland's non-con schedule can be good for the Horizon, but not necessarily. Obviously, it moves the conference up the SOS rankings. Even if Oakland loses most or all of those games, it will probably help their RPI, because they'll get extra points for playing on the road, and because the biggest factor in RPI is opponent's W-L record, which will be very good. But unless they win 3 or 4 of those games, it will quite likely hurt other Horizon teams' RPIs.
Why is that? Because, as I've explained elsewhere ad nauseam, Opponents' W-L is the biggest factor in RPI (and also because the bonus for playing on the road doesn't carry through - that is, Oakland gets a bonus for playing on the road, but when UIC or CSU plays Oakland, they don't get a bonus because Oakland's non-conference losses were on the road). If Oakland goes 0-6 in its big games - a distinct possibility - this will be much worse for other Horizon teams' RPI than if it had gone 4-2 against weaker competition, with a couple games at home.
Suppose, for simplicity's sake, Oakland goes 8-8 in Horizon play, winning all its home games and losing all its road games. Let's further suppose it goes 1-5 in its "big 6" games, and 5-1 in its other non-conference games. Oakland's W-L pct. will be, of course, .500. Since each Horizon team plays Oakland twice, and split its games with Oakland, Oakland's W-L will be .5000, and it will factor twice into each other Horizon team's RPI. Now suppose Oakland played weaker competition in those 6 games, and went 5-1. Each Horizon team would get 2 games against a team (Oakland) with a W-L pct. of .6538. As opponent's W-L pct. is the biggest single factor in RPI, you can see how it will hurt each other team's RPI.
Of course, there are then lots of variables. If Oakland wins a 2 or 3 or 4 games, the added PR will be worth a lot to the league, and the effect on RPI will be less. Conversely, if Oakland played weaker competition but lost anyway - say losing by 4 at Northern Iowa rather than 15 at UNC; losing to Kent State at home by 2 rather than losing to UCLA on the road by 20, and so on - then the other Horizon schools will be better for Oakland getting blown away by high majors than losing narrowly to mid-majors. So there are lots of variables, and since we'll never know who else might have been scheduled and how Oakland might have done, we'll never know ultimately if other Horizon schools benefitted or not.
Of course there can be other benefits to the league from such a schedule as well - TV exposure; the impact of an upset; selling recruits on playing big time teams in big time arenas, etc. But we cannot assume that the Horizon's RPI benefits from Oakland's murderer's row scheduling philosophy.
4. That leads to an interesting point about the league. When Butler left, a lot of people thought that the Horizon would fall dramatically in the conference rankings, but it did not. The League's RPI actually increased from .4933 to .4963, and it moved from 13th to 12th in the conference RPI rankings. This was almost entirely the result of weak non-conference scheduling.
Notice the tremendous decline in SOS up and down the league (excluding Oakland, which was not in the league). At every rank, the SOS was stronger in 2012 than in 2013 - and sometimes a whole lot stronger. Except for Detroit, no other team in the conference last year was in the top 100 in non-conference SOS, only Cleveland State also made the top 150, and only UIC was also in the top 200. Wright State and Loyola were in the bottom dozen schools in non-con SOS, and YSU and Milwaukee in the bottom 20%. The Horizon ranked a dismal 29th of 32 conferences in non-conference SOS.
So how did the conference RPI go up? Mainly because the league kicked ass against those weak schedules. The league's non-conference winning percentage went from .4811 to .5304, a very significant increase. And this non-conference winning percentage was then recycled over and over through the league, as each time league members played their higher winning percentage factored into each other's opponents' winning percentage - which, remember, is the biggest component of RPI. Plus, the shiny W-L records - including wins over D-III teams - helped UIC, YSU, Green Bay and even WSU land spots in post-season play, since the CIT and CBI like the big win totals as much or more as RPI. And having 6 teams in post-season play got the league some attention.
What does this mean for 2013-14? It suggests that the Horizon's resilience post-Butler may have been illusory, the result of scheduling lots of patsies for a year. But maybe not. The Horizon was 3-16 last year against top 50 RPI squads. In 2012 it was just 2-19 against top 50 opponents. So we will see how our conference does this year, assuming tougher schedules (though it's not clear schedules will be tougher - Detroit's is definitely weaker, though, as noted, Oakland is a big upgrade over Loyola in scheduling. Nobody else has finalized a non-conference schedule, although Green Bay has a pretty good start with games against Wisconsin and Virginia (at home, no less) and the Great Alaska Shootout.)
5. Wright State almost certainly benefited from its weak non-con schedule in 2013. WSU, recall, was coming off a 12-19 season and 7th place finish in 2012. It had lost what it thought would be it's best returning player, Julius Mays, who transferred to Kentucky, where he led the Wildcats in minutes played. They had lost 6 of their top 8 rotation players and had no seniors. What was left was a collection of underclassmen, none of whom had shown much except Reggie Arceneaux and arguably Cole Darling. The weak non-conference schedule enable WSU to start off 8-3 before playing a team with an RPI in the top 150 on Dec. 22 (they lost to Cincinnati). That was their only top 150 RPI non-con game except for the bracket buster against Evansville, which they also lost. They then got a favorable early league schedule, opening with 3 straight at home, including two of the weaker teams, CSU and Milwaukee, before facing Loyola on the road. They won all 4. After that, WSU was just 6-7 until the post-season, when the played well, beating UD in the Horizon tournament and Tulsa and Richmond in the CBI. Absent that easy non-conference schedule, however, it's not certain they would have even made the CBI to get those Tulsa and Richmond wins. Almost certainly their weak non-con schedule allowed an inexperienced team to build confidence, get used to playing together, develop in ability, and pad their W-L record. And because Wright State benefited, in this case, at least, the Horizon benefited.
6. For good measure, and so you see that 2012 wasn't a fluke of stronger than usual schedules, here are the 2011 non-con SOS ranks:
1. Butler 17
[Oakland 23]
2. Cleveland State 65
3. Valparaiso 71
4. Milwaukee 113
5. Green Bay 117
6. Wright State 164
7. Youngstown State 245
8. Detroit 250
9. UIC 261
10. Loyola 335