Post by Commissioner on Sept 9, 2017 7:59:13 GMT -5
Last year, as part of my Wright State preview, I did a little quick and dirty analysis of which of the various outfits that predict the Horizon League standings has been most accurate. I had just three years worth of data. Here is the key part:
Here were last year's "standings," based on the same formula--1 point for each spot a team is incorrectly projected, low score wins:
1. CBS Sports ................. 8
2. Horizon League Poll ... 10
2. Mid Major Madness ... 10
2. Catch & Shoot ............ 10
2. Three Man Weave....... 10
6. Athlon ......................... 12
6. NBC Sports ................ 12
6. NW Indiana Times ...... 12
9. Hi Def Hoops .............. 14
10. USA Today ............... 16
11. H League Hoops ...... 17
12. Blue Ribbon ............. 18
12. Sports Illustrated ...... 18
14. Sporting News ......... 19
15. Lindy's ..................... 20
15. Arena Fanatic .......... 20
17. Ken Pomeroy ........... 24
Some quick observations:
1. CBS has only done specific top-to-bottom rankings the last two years, but it has been the most accurate each time. Moreover, it's two efforts are the two most accurate of any in the 4 years for which I have records.
2. Pomeroy has been really good twice and really bad twice.
3. The Horizon League Poll is consistently one of the most accurate -- which is reassuring, in a way, since these are the people who should be most familiar with the league.
4. Blue Ribbon and Lindy's are consistently among the poorer annual predictions.
5. After two good years, Sports Illustrated did very poorly last year.
There are now just 7 sources for which I have top-to-bottom predictions for 4 years (ESPN drops out, as it didn't do full top-to-bottom last year). Those 7 rank as follows:
1. Horizon League Poll ... 60
2. NBC Sports ................ 62
3. Athlon ......................... 64
4. Sporting News ........... 71
5. Lindy's ....................... 72
5. Pomeroy .................... 72
7. Blue Ribbon .............. 74
So, look for the CBS and Horizon League Poll predictions to come out, then put your money down.
There were 8 preseason prognosticators for which I have full, top-to-bottom predictions for each of the last three years. Here are the “standings” for these based on a very simple measure of accuracy – they get 1 point for each position a team finishes that differs from the prediction. Low score wins, like in Cross Country. The tie breaker (the # in parens) is the number of teams that the predictor slotted in its exact spot (including Horizon tiebreakers) at year end (so a higher score is better for the number in parentheses). The second tiebreaker is the best seasonal ranking for any one year.
1. Ken Pomeroy 48 (6)
2. NBC Sports 50 (4)
3. Horizon League Official Poll 50 (4)
4. ESPN 50 (4)
5. Athlon 52 (5)
6. Sporting News 52 (3)
7. Lindy’s 52 (3)
8. Blue Ribbon 56 (1)
The best over the past two years, by the way, is Sports Illustrated. Last year SI slotted 5 teams right into the correct slot, the best effort of any predictor in any of the seasons. But their overall score last year was third best, behind CBS and Ken Pomeroy. They were the second most accurate in 2015. But I don’t have full top-to-bottom predictions from them for the 2014 season.
The best last year was CBS Sports, which slotted just 4 teams correctly, to SI’s 5, but overall was closer to the mark than SI. Last season was the first time CBS ranked the entire conference from 1 to 10, and their performance was the best single season prediction effort of any of the 48 predictions from 28 different predictors over the 3 years. The worst prediction for any one year came from a blog site called “Your Daily Dose of Hoops” for the 2014 season. That site is still around, but has smartly refrained from Horizon League predictions since. Of the 8 prognosticators with a full three year track record, the worst single season predictions came for the 2015 season, a three way tie of Lindy’s, Blue Ribbon, and, somewhat surprisingly, Ken Pomeroy.
1. Ken Pomeroy 48 (6)
2. NBC Sports 50 (4)
3. Horizon League Official Poll 50 (4)
4. ESPN 50 (4)
5. Athlon 52 (5)
6. Sporting News 52 (3)
7. Lindy’s 52 (3)
8. Blue Ribbon 56 (1)
The best over the past two years, by the way, is Sports Illustrated. Last year SI slotted 5 teams right into the correct slot, the best effort of any predictor in any of the seasons. But their overall score last year was third best, behind CBS and Ken Pomeroy. They were the second most accurate in 2015. But I don’t have full top-to-bottom predictions from them for the 2014 season.
The best last year was CBS Sports, which slotted just 4 teams correctly, to SI’s 5, but overall was closer to the mark than SI. Last season was the first time CBS ranked the entire conference from 1 to 10, and their performance was the best single season prediction effort of any of the 48 predictions from 28 different predictors over the 3 years. The worst prediction for any one year came from a blog site called “Your Daily Dose of Hoops” for the 2014 season. That site is still around, but has smartly refrained from Horizon League predictions since. Of the 8 prognosticators with a full three year track record, the worst single season predictions came for the 2015 season, a three way tie of Lindy’s, Blue Ribbon, and, somewhat surprisingly, Ken Pomeroy.
Here were last year's "standings," based on the same formula--1 point for each spot a team is incorrectly projected, low score wins:
1. CBS Sports ................. 8
2. Horizon League Poll ... 10
2. Mid Major Madness ... 10
2. Catch & Shoot ............ 10
2. Three Man Weave....... 10
6. Athlon ......................... 12
6. NBC Sports ................ 12
6. NW Indiana Times ...... 12
9. Hi Def Hoops .............. 14
10. USA Today ............... 16
11. H League Hoops ...... 17
12. Blue Ribbon ............. 18
12. Sports Illustrated ...... 18
14. Sporting News ......... 19
15. Lindy's ..................... 20
15. Arena Fanatic .......... 20
17. Ken Pomeroy ........... 24
Some quick observations:
1. CBS has only done specific top-to-bottom rankings the last two years, but it has been the most accurate each time. Moreover, it's two efforts are the two most accurate of any in the 4 years for which I have records.
2. Pomeroy has been really good twice and really bad twice.
3. The Horizon League Poll is consistently one of the most accurate -- which is reassuring, in a way, since these are the people who should be most familiar with the league.
4. Blue Ribbon and Lindy's are consistently among the poorer annual predictions.
5. After two good years, Sports Illustrated did very poorly last year.
There are now just 7 sources for which I have top-to-bottom predictions for 4 years (ESPN drops out, as it didn't do full top-to-bottom last year). Those 7 rank as follows:
1. Horizon League Poll ... 60
2. NBC Sports ................ 62
3. Athlon ......................... 64
4. Sporting News ........... 71
5. Lindy's ....................... 72
5. Pomeroy .................... 72
7. Blue Ribbon .............. 74
So, look for the CBS and Horizon League Poll predictions to come out, then put your money down.