Post by Commissioner on Jan 21, 2019 10:55:37 GMT -5
This week could really start to separate teams in the HL--or bunch them up.
Current Horizon Standings (with tie-breakers)
1. Northern Kentucky 6-1
2. Oakland 5-2
3. Detroit 5-2
4. Green Bay 4-3
5. Wright State 4-3
6. Milwaukee 4-3
7. IUPUI 3-4
8. UIC 3-4
9. Youngstown 2-6
10. Cleveland State 0-8
Schedule:
GB and Milwaukee swing through the south to play NKU and WSU
Detroit and Oakland visit UIC and IUPUI
YSU visits CSU in a battle for the bottom.
At the bottom, YSU and CSU--especially the latter--need a win to stay in the running for a conference tournament slot.
At the top, if NKU holds serve they'll remain in first, and be at least two games up on everyone except possibly Detroit and Oakland.
It's in the middle that it really gets interesting. The Titans have a chance to really separate from the rest of the conference. If we can sweep on the road--doable against IUPUI and underperforming UIC--we can be in first place if NKU stumbles. But more importantly, perhaps, if NKU doesn't stumble and we sweep we'll be at least two games ahead of Green Bay and Milwaukee (plus we'd hold the tiebreaker over each), and three games up if either loses to Wright State. Any Wright State loss, meanwhile, leaves us 2 up (or 3 up if they're swept at home, which I think unlikely). If NKU, Wright State, and Detroit sweep, you'd see the top of the standings as:
NKU 8-1
Detroit 7-2
OU ?
Wright State 6-3
Green Bay 4-5
Milwaukee 4-5
IUPUI 4-5 or 3-6
UIC 4-5 or 3-6
YSU 3-6 at best
CSU last
With a 3 game lead and the tie breaker over all 6 of the bottom teams, I think we could start booking things for the first round Horizon League tournament home game. Of course, if Wright State loses to either or both of Green Bay or Milwaukee, we'll only be two up on the victorious Wisconsin teams, but also 2 or 3 up on Wright State--with the tie breaker again in our favor.
OTOH, if the Titans lose both-a distinct possibility-- we're 5-4, and conceivably tied with IUPUI and UIC or both, and either behind Wright State and/or Oakland or in a tie with some combo of Oakland, Wright State, Milwaukee, and Green Bay.
You could very realistically see these standings on Sunday:
NKU 7-1
UIC 5-4
IUPUI 5-4
OU 5-4
Wright State 5-4
Detroit 5-4
Milwaukee/Green Bay 5-4
Milwaukee/Green Bay 4-5
YSU 3-6
CSU 0-9
I suppose this is a long-winded way of saying the obvious--every game counts and if we keep winning, we'll be fine. But this weekend does give us a chance to place ourselves squarely in the top half of the league and likely to remain there.
Current Horizon Standings (with tie-breakers)
1. Northern Kentucky 6-1
2. Oakland 5-2
3. Detroit 5-2
4. Green Bay 4-3
5. Wright State 4-3
6. Milwaukee 4-3
7. IUPUI 3-4
8. UIC 3-4
9. Youngstown 2-6
10. Cleveland State 0-8
Schedule:
GB and Milwaukee swing through the south to play NKU and WSU
Detroit and Oakland visit UIC and IUPUI
YSU visits CSU in a battle for the bottom.
At the bottom, YSU and CSU--especially the latter--need a win to stay in the running for a conference tournament slot.
At the top, if NKU holds serve they'll remain in first, and be at least two games up on everyone except possibly Detroit and Oakland.
It's in the middle that it really gets interesting. The Titans have a chance to really separate from the rest of the conference. If we can sweep on the road--doable against IUPUI and underperforming UIC--we can be in first place if NKU stumbles. But more importantly, perhaps, if NKU doesn't stumble and we sweep we'll be at least two games ahead of Green Bay and Milwaukee (plus we'd hold the tiebreaker over each), and three games up if either loses to Wright State. Any Wright State loss, meanwhile, leaves us 2 up (or 3 up if they're swept at home, which I think unlikely). If NKU, Wright State, and Detroit sweep, you'd see the top of the standings as:
NKU 8-1
Detroit 7-2
OU ?
Wright State 6-3
Green Bay 4-5
Milwaukee 4-5
IUPUI 4-5 or 3-6
UIC 4-5 or 3-6
YSU 3-6 at best
CSU last
With a 3 game lead and the tie breaker over all 6 of the bottom teams, I think we could start booking things for the first round Horizon League tournament home game. Of course, if Wright State loses to either or both of Green Bay or Milwaukee, we'll only be two up on the victorious Wisconsin teams, but also 2 or 3 up on Wright State--with the tie breaker again in our favor.
OTOH, if the Titans lose both-a distinct possibility-- we're 5-4, and conceivably tied with IUPUI and UIC or both, and either behind Wright State and/or Oakland or in a tie with some combo of Oakland, Wright State, Milwaukee, and Green Bay.
You could very realistically see these standings on Sunday:
NKU 7-1
UIC 5-4
IUPUI 5-4
OU 5-4
Wright State 5-4
Detroit 5-4
Milwaukee/Green Bay 5-4
Milwaukee/Green Bay 4-5
YSU 3-6
CSU 0-9
I suppose this is a long-winded way of saying the obvious--every game counts and if we keep winning, we'll be fine. But this weekend does give us a chance to place ourselves squarely in the top half of the league and likely to remain there.