Post by Commissioner on Jan 28, 2019 20:01:17 GMT -5
The Horizon season is half over.
Here are the basic standings, with tie-breakers. The number in parens is how much each team is ahead or behind it's number of home games. That doesn't really vary from the standings because right now everybody has played almost the same number of home games--4 or 5. But it still gives a bit better idea of who the schedule favors. So for example, you see that while Wright State trails NKU by 2 games in the standings, if it can just hold serve at home, it only needs to pick up 1 game on the road to tie the Norse. Or that while Green Bay, Milwaukee, and UIC are tied at 4-5, not only does Green Bay hold the tie breaker over the other two, but it also has more home games remaining.
1. Northern Kentucky 8-1 (+3)
2. Wright State 6-3 (+2)
3. Oakland 6-3 (+2)
4. IUPUI 5-4 (+1)
5. Detroit 5-4 (0)
6. Green Bay 4-5 (0)
7. Milwaukee 4-5 (-1)
8. UIC 4-5 (-1)
9. Youngstown State 2-7 (-2)
10. Cleveland State 1-8 (-4)
NKU is playing very good ball right now. They played a weak non-con schedule and lost their only really meaningful non-conference games, so they're not in contention for an at-large bid (I suppose if they won out and lost in the conference tournament finals, they'd at least be in the discussion, but it would still be tough. They'd be 29-5 but with no top 100 wins and at least 3 bad losses.) But on the plus side, NKU's NET ranking is now #93. (Their RPI is up in the 70s, but unfortunately that criteria has gone by the board.) Lunardi now has them a #13 seed. If they go through the second half of the season with the same 8-1 record as the first half, and win the tournament, they'd again be 29-5. That could very well get them a #12 seed, conceivably even 11, probably no worse than 13. That would likely be the best result for the Horizon, though obviously fans of every other team would rather see a different HL tournament champ.
Don't look now but here comes Wright State. The pre-season fave had a disappointing non-conference record and a slow conference start, but since getting blasted by the Titans, they've won 5 of 6, with the lone loss a narrow, 4-point defeat at Northern Kentucky. This week they are at UIC and IUPUI. If they can sweep on the road, they'll then have 5 straight home games.
Otherwise Detroit has exceeded everyone's expectations, but are they starting a long fade or can they recover? UIC, a consensus choice for 3rd, is the big disappointment. I'd say IUPUI, Green Bay, and Milwaukee are less than their fans might have hoped, but certainly not by much, and probably not at all vis what a non-partisan observer might have thought, except maybe I'd swap the Phoenix with IUPUI in the standings. YSU and CSU both have their work cut out to avoid missing the league tournament, with YSU's loss to Cleveland State last Saturday really damaging their chances. They do hold the tie breaker over Milwaukee if they can catch the Panthers.
Here would be my not particularly well thought out "awards" halfway through the conference season, in alphabetical order:
First Team All Conference
Sandy Cohen, Green Bay
Antoine Davis, Detroit
Xavier Hill-Maas, Oakland
Loudon Love, Wright State
Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Second Team All Conference
Tyree Appleby, Cleveland State
Jaevin Cumberland, Oakland
Tarkus Ferguson, UIC
Cameron Justice, IUPUI
Jalen Tate, Northern Kentucky
All Freshman
Antoine Davis, Detroit
Braden Norris, Oakland
Skyelar Potter, Wright State
Darius Quisenberry, Youngstown State
Rashad Williams, Cleveland State
All Defense
D'Andre Abram, Milwaukee
Tarkus Ferguson, UIC
Loudon Love, Wright State
Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Jalen Tate, Northern Kentucky
Player of the Year: Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Freshman of the Year: Antoine Davis, Detroit
Defensive Player of the Year: Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Coach of the Year: (Tie), John Brannon, Northern Kentucky and Mike Davis, Detroit.
My two cents.
Here are the basic standings, with tie-breakers. The number in parens is how much each team is ahead or behind it's number of home games. That doesn't really vary from the standings because right now everybody has played almost the same number of home games--4 or 5. But it still gives a bit better idea of who the schedule favors. So for example, you see that while Wright State trails NKU by 2 games in the standings, if it can just hold serve at home, it only needs to pick up 1 game on the road to tie the Norse. Or that while Green Bay, Milwaukee, and UIC are tied at 4-5, not only does Green Bay hold the tie breaker over the other two, but it also has more home games remaining.
1. Northern Kentucky 8-1 (+3)
2. Wright State 6-3 (+2)
3. Oakland 6-3 (+2)
4. IUPUI 5-4 (+1)
5. Detroit 5-4 (0)
6. Green Bay 4-5 (0)
7. Milwaukee 4-5 (-1)
8. UIC 4-5 (-1)
9. Youngstown State 2-7 (-2)
10. Cleveland State 1-8 (-4)
NKU is playing very good ball right now. They played a weak non-con schedule and lost their only really meaningful non-conference games, so they're not in contention for an at-large bid (I suppose if they won out and lost in the conference tournament finals, they'd at least be in the discussion, but it would still be tough. They'd be 29-5 but with no top 100 wins and at least 3 bad losses.) But on the plus side, NKU's NET ranking is now #93. (Their RPI is up in the 70s, but unfortunately that criteria has gone by the board.) Lunardi now has them a #13 seed. If they go through the second half of the season with the same 8-1 record as the first half, and win the tournament, they'd again be 29-5. That could very well get them a #12 seed, conceivably even 11, probably no worse than 13. That would likely be the best result for the Horizon, though obviously fans of every other team would rather see a different HL tournament champ.
Don't look now but here comes Wright State. The pre-season fave had a disappointing non-conference record and a slow conference start, but since getting blasted by the Titans, they've won 5 of 6, with the lone loss a narrow, 4-point defeat at Northern Kentucky. This week they are at UIC and IUPUI. If they can sweep on the road, they'll then have 5 straight home games.
Otherwise Detroit has exceeded everyone's expectations, but are they starting a long fade or can they recover? UIC, a consensus choice for 3rd, is the big disappointment. I'd say IUPUI, Green Bay, and Milwaukee are less than their fans might have hoped, but certainly not by much, and probably not at all vis what a non-partisan observer might have thought, except maybe I'd swap the Phoenix with IUPUI in the standings. YSU and CSU both have their work cut out to avoid missing the league tournament, with YSU's loss to Cleveland State last Saturday really damaging their chances. They do hold the tie breaker over Milwaukee if they can catch the Panthers.
Here would be my not particularly well thought out "awards" halfway through the conference season, in alphabetical order:
First Team All Conference
Sandy Cohen, Green Bay
Antoine Davis, Detroit
Xavier Hill-Maas, Oakland
Loudon Love, Wright State
Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Second Team All Conference
Tyree Appleby, Cleveland State
Jaevin Cumberland, Oakland
Tarkus Ferguson, UIC
Cameron Justice, IUPUI
Jalen Tate, Northern Kentucky
All Freshman
Antoine Davis, Detroit
Braden Norris, Oakland
Skyelar Potter, Wright State
Darius Quisenberry, Youngstown State
Rashad Williams, Cleveland State
All Defense
D'Andre Abram, Milwaukee
Tarkus Ferguson, UIC
Loudon Love, Wright State
Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Jalen Tate, Northern Kentucky
Player of the Year: Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Freshman of the Year: Antoine Davis, Detroit
Defensive Player of the Year: Drew McDonald, Northern Kentucky
Coach of the Year: (Tie), John Brannon, Northern Kentucky and Mike Davis, Detroit.
My two cents.