Post by Commissioner on Feb 11, 2019 21:07:40 GMT -5
Milwaukee
When Thursday, February 14, 8:00 p.m. EST
Where Milwaukee
TV: ESPN+
Radio: AM 910 Superstation
The Titans' 93-84 victory over Milwaukee a month ago was the high water mark of the Titans' season--hopefully, only the high water mark to date. That win left the Titans at 5-1 in Conference play, tied for first with Northern Kentucky. Since then, UD has lost 6 of 7, dropping into a tie for 7th place with Youngstown State. This game marks the halfway point of the Titans 5 game road swing. Milwaukee also enters the game struggling--they've just completed their 5 game road swing, and it was brutal, with the Panthers losing all 5. We need to avoid that fate.
In the last month, the HL has pretty much reverted to it's predicted form. After a slow start Wright State, the preseason favorite, has won 7 of 8 to move into second place. On Thursday, they host Northern Kentucky in a battle for first place. UIC, the consensus pre-season choice to finish third, also started slow, but the Flames have now won 4 of 5 and sit in third place. Meanwhile, the Titans and Milwaukee, preseason picks for 10th and 8th, have slipped to 7th and 9th.
After this swing through the Cheese State, the Titans will have just 3 more games. Win both games this weekend--which is doable if the Titans play like the Titans of the first 2 weeks of January--and the Titans will be no worse than in sole possession of 6th place, with a spot in the conference tournament all but mathematically sealed, and a reasonable possibility to finish as high as third. Lose both--which is possible given our recent play-- and the Titans will leave the diary air, in a best case scenario, tied for 7th overall and tied with 9th place Milwaukee in the loss column, and realistically out of the picture to host a first round tournament game. In a worst case scenario, will have 9th place all to ourselves.
Milwaukee's rotation is the pretty much what we saw in January. The one likely change is that Will Sessoms has been displaced from the starting lineup in favor of Bryce Barnes, making Milwaukee small but quicker.
Probable Starters
PG: #20 Darius Roy, 6-2 Jr. (15.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 40.4% 3PtFG, 84.0% FT)
CG: #0 Bryce Barnes, 5-11 Jr. (6.5 ppg, 2.6 apg, 39.4% 3PtFG)
SG: #13 Jake Wright, 6-4 RS Sr. (9.2 ppg, 40.6% 3PtFG, 94.1% FT)
F: #01 DeAndre Abram, 6-8 RS Jr. (11.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 33.6% 3PtFG)
F: #12 Amir Allen, 6-8 Jr. (6.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 57.8% FG)
Bench
SG: #2 Bobby Arthur-Williams, 6-7 RS Jr. (2.8 ppg)
G: #25 Jamar Madge, 6-3 Fr. (1.4 ppg)
F: #11 Vance Johnson, 6-8 Sr. (9.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 88.6% FT)
F: #04 Will Sessoms, 6-8 Jr. (4.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
Coach Pat Baldwin sometimes starts Vance Johnson in place of Allen, and Bobby Arthur-Williams sometimes starts, too. He could decide to go big against us. Both Johnson and Allen were effective in the game at Calihan, combining for 26 points and 9 rebounds from the power forward spot. But their best player in that game was forward DeAndre Abram, who had a career high 31 points (6 of 13 from three), plus 7 rebounds. He was in the midst of a 4 game hot streak in which he averaged 22 points and 8 rebounds while shooting 52%. But in Milwaukee's current 5 game losing streak, he's averaged just 7.4 points while shooting 28%. Meanwhile, in January the Titans held the Panther guards in check, limiting Roy, Barnes, and Wright to a total of 23 points. The Titans, meanwhile, got 32 from Antoine and 18 from McFolley. King had a season high 16 points, and Chris Brandon had 7 points and 8 rebounds (and then disappeared from the rotation).
Milwaukee is a relatively deliberate team, and for the Horizon League, anyway, shoots relatively few threes. They are last in the league in turnover margin, but that's mainly because they don't force many turnovers. That said, they did turn it over 17 times at Calihan.
All I can think of to say for the Titans is that we need to move better without the ball, and hit the open man. If they're double teaming AD, someone is open. The Titans have just 17 assists total in our last 3 games, which probably has an endogenous relationship to our poor shooting (just 28% from three and 40% overall). Since the last Milwaukee game, Derrien King has pretty much disappeared, averaging just 4.7 points per game while shooting 26%. Josh McFolley, who was HL Player of the Week after scoring 47 points against Green Bay and Milwaukee in January, has averaged just 10 points. But of course, when you've lost 6 of 7, it's probably fair to say that most guys have been performing sub-par.
The Titans are really not a talented team--we have to keep reminding ourselves that they've already exceeded most expectations. But they've got enough, I think, to finish strong and make some noise in the conference tournament. This weekend will tell us a lot about whether they'll be in a favorable position to do that.
When Thursday, February 14, 8:00 p.m. EST
Where Milwaukee
TV: ESPN+
Radio: AM 910 Superstation
The Titans' 93-84 victory over Milwaukee a month ago was the high water mark of the Titans' season--hopefully, only the high water mark to date. That win left the Titans at 5-1 in Conference play, tied for first with Northern Kentucky. Since then, UD has lost 6 of 7, dropping into a tie for 7th place with Youngstown State. This game marks the halfway point of the Titans 5 game road swing. Milwaukee also enters the game struggling--they've just completed their 5 game road swing, and it was brutal, with the Panthers losing all 5. We need to avoid that fate.
In the last month, the HL has pretty much reverted to it's predicted form. After a slow start Wright State, the preseason favorite, has won 7 of 8 to move into second place. On Thursday, they host Northern Kentucky in a battle for first place. UIC, the consensus pre-season choice to finish third, also started slow, but the Flames have now won 4 of 5 and sit in third place. Meanwhile, the Titans and Milwaukee, preseason picks for 10th and 8th, have slipped to 7th and 9th.
After this swing through the Cheese State, the Titans will have just 3 more games. Win both games this weekend--which is doable if the Titans play like the Titans of the first 2 weeks of January--and the Titans will be no worse than in sole possession of 6th place, with a spot in the conference tournament all but mathematically sealed, and a reasonable possibility to finish as high as third. Lose both--which is possible given our recent play-- and the Titans will leave the diary air, in a best case scenario, tied for 7th overall and tied with 9th place Milwaukee in the loss column, and realistically out of the picture to host a first round tournament game. In a worst case scenario, will have 9th place all to ourselves.
Milwaukee's rotation is the pretty much what we saw in January. The one likely change is that Will Sessoms has been displaced from the starting lineup in favor of Bryce Barnes, making Milwaukee small but quicker.
Probable Starters
PG: #20 Darius Roy, 6-2 Jr. (15.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 40.4% 3PtFG, 84.0% FT)
CG: #0 Bryce Barnes, 5-11 Jr. (6.5 ppg, 2.6 apg, 39.4% 3PtFG)
SG: #13 Jake Wright, 6-4 RS Sr. (9.2 ppg, 40.6% 3PtFG, 94.1% FT)
F: #01 DeAndre Abram, 6-8 RS Jr. (11.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 33.6% 3PtFG)
F: #12 Amir Allen, 6-8 Jr. (6.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 57.8% FG)
Bench
SG: #2 Bobby Arthur-Williams, 6-7 RS Jr. (2.8 ppg)
G: #25 Jamar Madge, 6-3 Fr. (1.4 ppg)
F: #11 Vance Johnson, 6-8 Sr. (9.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 88.6% FT)
F: #04 Will Sessoms, 6-8 Jr. (4.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
Coach Pat Baldwin sometimes starts Vance Johnson in place of Allen, and Bobby Arthur-Williams sometimes starts, too. He could decide to go big against us. Both Johnson and Allen were effective in the game at Calihan, combining for 26 points and 9 rebounds from the power forward spot. But their best player in that game was forward DeAndre Abram, who had a career high 31 points (6 of 13 from three), plus 7 rebounds. He was in the midst of a 4 game hot streak in which he averaged 22 points and 8 rebounds while shooting 52%. But in Milwaukee's current 5 game losing streak, he's averaged just 7.4 points while shooting 28%. Meanwhile, in January the Titans held the Panther guards in check, limiting Roy, Barnes, and Wright to a total of 23 points. The Titans, meanwhile, got 32 from Antoine and 18 from McFolley. King had a season high 16 points, and Chris Brandon had 7 points and 8 rebounds (and then disappeared from the rotation).
Milwaukee is a relatively deliberate team, and for the Horizon League, anyway, shoots relatively few threes. They are last in the league in turnover margin, but that's mainly because they don't force many turnovers. That said, they did turn it over 17 times at Calihan.
All I can think of to say for the Titans is that we need to move better without the ball, and hit the open man. If they're double teaming AD, someone is open. The Titans have just 17 assists total in our last 3 games, which probably has an endogenous relationship to our poor shooting (just 28% from three and 40% overall). Since the last Milwaukee game, Derrien King has pretty much disappeared, averaging just 4.7 points per game while shooting 26%. Josh McFolley, who was HL Player of the Week after scoring 47 points against Green Bay and Milwaukee in January, has averaged just 10 points. But of course, when you've lost 6 of 7, it's probably fair to say that most guys have been performing sub-par.
The Titans are really not a talented team--we have to keep reminding ourselves that they've already exceeded most expectations. But they've got enough, I think, to finish strong and make some noise in the conference tournament. This weekend will tell us a lot about whether they'll be in a favorable position to do that.