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Post by calihanmole on Jul 1, 2020 17:41:47 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree, ptc. We’re just not there on the public health front. And this isn’t any kind of political bias from me, I’m a conservative Republican and 3 time Trump voter. We are simply not ready to allow our athletic teams to travel and compete with others and then possibly bring pathogens back to campuses. I say this as someone who works and teaches at a P5 school. It’s only early July and the faculty around the country are just starting to use their power to fight back. I LOVE college basketball but I refuse to let it be used to possibly harm my students. This fight is just beginning but I promise you there will be no basketball until after fall semester at the earliest.
As for Pitino, I think he’s on the right track. Delay things until the New Year under the condition that things improve and we learn more about this. The only thing I’d change is to limit conference play up to 14 games and allow a few noncon games (close opponents only) so that each team plays roughly a 16 game season.
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Post by ptctitan on Jul 1, 2020 18:11:26 GMT -5
First, we will know a lot more by September than we know now. Second, unless the virus dies out on its own, there will never again be a time when anyone can travel with 100% certainty that they won't bring SARS-CoV-2 back to anywhere. Even flu vaccines now don't stop all permutations of the flu. Right now, 96%-97% of all these new cases don't need any hospitalization. What degree of certainty should be a minimum if for people under 65 years of age, the chance of dying is 0.05% and the chance of dying for the entire population is 0.26%? I'm asking a legitimate question - not making a rhetorical point. What is the threshold of safety required?
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Post by titantarheel on Jul 1, 2020 18:19:58 GMT -5
PTC’s optimistic DetMer posts > PTC’s epidemiology posts
**posted from my doomsday bunker that I haven’t left from since March, and un-ironically while I’m packing to go up north for the 4th
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Post by calihanmole on Jul 1, 2020 19:16:23 GMT -5
First, we will know a lot more by September than we know now. Second, unless the virus dies out on its own, there will never again be a time when anyone can travel with 100% certainty that they won't bring SARS-CoV-2 back to anywhere. Even flu vaccines now don't stop all permutations of the flu. Right now, 96%-97% of all these new cases don't need any hospitalization. What degree of certainty should be a minimum if for people under 65 years of age, the chance of dying is 0.05% and the chance of dying for the entire population is 0.26%? I'm asking a legitimate question - not making a rhetorical point. What is the threshold of safety required? The death rate really has nothing to do with it. The issues are: (1) hospitals and ICUs can be strained by increased cases which can lead to numerous other public health consequences (which will likely be much more probable once cold & flu season gears up), (2) universities exist first to educate students first, not throw balls around. Some cities have already reached ICU capacities. Universities are already taking a gamble by merely bringing back students to campus in 4 weeks. It’s going to be a really bad narrative already if COVID clusters happen in dorms and universities cause harm to their communities. Playing sports this fall makes that narrative much worse. Again, we exist primarily to teach and mentor these kids trusted in our care. I’ve already had numerous academic activities canceled this fall: moot court tournament, lecture series, community nonprofit arrangements where my undergrads do volunteer work. If we can’t do those things as an institution, I don’t see how we can say the basketball team gets to hop on a plane every week and play a team and possibly bring back pathogens to campus. All I’m saying is that it’s easy to look up stats and say, “it’s not that bad.” But when you work on a university campus and you care for these kids it’s very real. I’m OK with these plans to open campuses, but if we’re going to do it let’s be as responsible as we absolutely can be. My vote is for no fall sports. I feel confident that enough faculty and staff will petition their colleges to cancel sports by August, at which point all colleges and the ncaa will need to follow suit.
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Post by bigchuck on Jul 2, 2020 9:01:27 GMT -5
First, we will know a lot more by September than we know now. Second, unless the virus dies out on its own, there will never again be a time when anyone can travel with 100% certainty that they won't bring SARS-CoV-2 back to anywhere. Even flu vaccines now don't stop all permutations of the flu. Right now, 96%-97% of all these new cases don't need any hospitalization. What degree of certainty should be a minimum if for people under 65 years of age, the chance of dying is 0.05% and the chance of dying for the entire population is 0.26%? I'm asking a legitimate question - not making a rhetorical point. What is the threshold of safety required? The death rate really has nothing to do with it. The issues are: (1) hospitals and ICUs can be strained by increased cases which can lead to numerous other public health consequences (which will likely be much more probable once cold & flu season gears up), (2) universities exist first to educate students first, not throw balls around. Some cities have already reached ICU capacities. Universities are already taking a gamble by merely bringing back students to campus in 4 weeks. It’s going to be a really bad narrative already if COVID clusters happen in dorms and universities cause harm to their communities. Playing sports this fall makes that narrative much worse. Again, we exist primarily to teach and mentor these kids trusted in our care. I’ve already had numerous academic activities canceled this fall: moot court tournament, lecture series, community nonprofit arrangements where my undergrads do volunteer work. If we can’t do those things as an institution, I don’t see how we can say the basketball team gets to hop on a plane every week and play a team and possibly bring back pathogens to campus. All I’m saying is that it’s easy to look up stats and say, “it’s not that bad.” But when you work on a university campus and you care for these kids it’s very real. I’m OK with these plans to open campuses, but if we’re going to do it let’s be as responsible as we absolutely can be. My vote is for no fall sports. I feel confident that enough faculty and staff will petition their colleges to cancel sports by August, at which point all colleges and the ncaa will need to follow suit.. I don't know where to start. Hospitals are not full of Covid cases. They are busy because thousands of people delayed necessary health care during the months we were getting under control. Many of them are in ICU units because they delayed. There is so OLD information out there. I was in a major hospital in the Detroit area a couple of months ago. Because no one was there and visitors were not allowed I had plenty of time to talk to nurses. They told me some frightening tales of how bad it was for a few weeks. The recover room I was in had been a temporary ICU unit a month earlier. They all said they had learned a lot on how to treat and did not worry about a return to those conditions. The whole medical community is so much better prepared. Based on the current information we know that the death rate is much lower than believed previously. More treatments are available and young people are not getting seriously ill for the most part. I am the high risk group. I will make the choice if I attend the games. I know right now that I will attend any outdoor sports events this fall. indoors give me some pause, but the decision should be mine. I expect I would go to games and social distance in Calihan. Every college athlete should not be able to play if they want to without being penalized if they chose not to participate. But if they do not, I don't think the University owes them a free year of college. They could take a year off and return with full eligibility and the scholarship renewed. Ford Motor is not going to pay a worker to stay home when the plant is open. Most Universities are already under huge financial pressures and many ordinary students are taking time off due to money problems, why are scholarship athletes any different. Why should young people radically change their lives? Why should they miss so many of the social and life events that I look back at so fondly 50 years later? Our college students are adults who can make there own decisions. They don't always make good ones, but let's not pretend that they are facing a life or death decision for them. Reminds me of a comment from my college time. There were a lot of guys at U of D because it beat the hell out of Viet Nam. I never taught at a university, but lived for many years in Ann Arbor. The isolation of many University community members to the real world is palpable. Unlike the many college students, there are millions of young people carrying on with life cutting your grass, stocking your food stores, making sure your internet is working etc. They are doing so with common sense and NOT absolutely as safe as they can be. Life is not risk free. Let's live not in fear, but enjoying life experiences and our fellow friends and neighbors.
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Post by calihanmole on Jul 2, 2020 11:06:52 GMT -5
Chuck, we can disagree about the ICU issue. I acknowledge there has been some criticism about how ICU capacity has been reported, especially in Houston. However, one can’t deny that COVID does result in more ICU beds being needed and puts other strains on healthcare. And, I think it’s very reasonable to assume that as cold & flu season picks up, an outbreak of COVID in a certain city could be the difference in treating patients (COVID or others). Take Ann Arbor as an example. If UM calls back students to campus and there are COVID outbreaks, it looks very bad for the school. Sure, college kids are less likely to be hospitalized and need ICU care, but some inevitably will. Also, it’s not just about the students. It’s also about that 65 year old professor or that 42 year old staff member who has asthma.
You say you don’t know where to begin, but you never address my main point which is that universities are right now communicating to faulty and staff that virtually all academic events and programming (lectures from speakers, internships in the community, service opportunities, panels, debates) can’t take place. We are being told that we can have classes only and must wear masks everywhere at all times. Think about it. How can a university say that you can’t fly in three experts to have a panel discussion about an important and timely issue (exactly the kind of reason universities exists) but then also let 12 basketball players get on a plane and play a physical game of basketball against kids from another school possibly infected with COVID? In a philosophical sense, I agree with you. These young people shouldn’t have to bear all of this burden and live in fear. But, like I said, we are already taking a risk by opening campus. If we can’t do the academic stuff then we shouldn’t do the athletic stuff. And I’m pretty sure that most college presidents and trustees don’t want to risk being held responsible in their communities for adding to a huge public healthcare disaster and have to explain their decisions to still hold athletics. That might be forgivable if we simply called back students, wore masks, and constantly disinfected classrooms. Think about how different that narrative is if we also played football and basketball.
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Post by bigchuck on Jul 2, 2020 12:24:42 GMT -5
Calihanmole
My point was not to compare other activities to athletes, but to comment how one sided and absolute the Covid fighters are while they ignore or down play the other social costs, health costs and economic costs that society, especially our younger population is suffering. Decisions are being made based on old, biased or just wrong information. Decisions should not be made based on petitions circulated, but good data and a rational process. Decision must be made using valid current information and science.
For example ICU and hospitalizations usage numbers are being equated with the beginning surge of the virus. The hospitalizations for covid in Michigan is less than 10% of its April numbers and have not moved appreciably in 3 weeks. Those numbers also include patients that are in the hospital for other issues that tested positive for covid after they were admitted. Add that to the fact that it is far less likely that someone would go on a respirator because they have found that oxygen works far better that a respirator for patients that were previous placed on respirators in ICUs. No one mentions those numbers or facts.
Because the hospitals are now handsomely compensated for "COVID" cases they have an incentive to classify cases accordingly. There are also verified accounts of many admissions that would not have been if there was a shortage of beds. They would have been sent home for observation, but now are admitted and the hospitals receive $$. I am not saying this is wrong to do. I just saying there is far more capacity in the system than is being reported.
I believe that many of the cancelation of future events are premature and based on emotion and perceptions, not always realities of today or in the future when the decisions actually have to be made. That includes many of the campus activities you reference.
Isolate the old and vulnerable. Let that elderly professor Zoom his class into a classroom with a TA. There is no reason to fly three experts into a classroom for a panel discussion. I am participating in a national panel discussion via WebEx in two weeks. Normally we meet in Dallas. That makes sense, but you cannot equate doing that to a virtual Basketball game.
You did not address my question of how much risk of COVID is it worth to offset the other costs that are being suffered by many, especially our younger generation.
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Post by calihanmole on Jul 2, 2020 13:52:51 GMT -5
I don’t think we are as far apart as you think. I think most of what you say is true, but unfortunately not achievable on a policy front (isolating the elderly) or at in institutional level (telling old and at risk faculty and staff they need to work remotely - this gets further complicated when you consider some people are not at risk but have at risk partners and children at home).
As for your question about how much risk, that’s hard to say or quantify. For me, at the higher ed level, I’m willing to risk holding classes at college campuses but draw the line at athletics because it possibly brings more pathogens to our campus and community. Again, now looking at Notre Dame as an example, I feel that when we bring back roughly 8,000 undergrads and a few thousand grad students the first weekend of August we are taking an acceptable amount of risk. However, I think even the best college students will suck at social distancing and this thing is highly contagious. I know that your question is asking me about the level of risk compared to the ills of not resuming normalcy (depression, substance abuse, even suicide). I’m not sure how to answer that other than I think society should mostly resume. Play NBA games if they can, those guys get paid millions. But sending scholarship athletes that are already said by some to be exploited by colleges? You’re asking the question at 30,000 feet. I’m asking it as someone on the ground. I’m concerned about the possibility of even a few college students around the country dying or suffering long term health complications because of COVID. Maybe it won’t happen, but it could. I agree with you for the most part. I’ll add that life is fragile and we take risks all the time. In my 7 years at my current institution we’ve had four students die. You don’t forget those stories. My point is that it will be an absolute nightmare if a student dies from this thing on our campus or another campus. Again, I think it will look very bad for universities if we decided to also have sports this fall and some kids with unknown conditions die. I’m just saying we should probably punt and push all fall sports to winter and spring IF things improve. My impression is these decisions will start coming down by late July. I could be convinced that resuming sports this fall is worth the risk if we have a good couple weeks right now, but based on what I’m reading I don’t think that is likely.
Regarding basketball, a lot of colleges are ending the semester right before Thanksgiving. I’d be ok having games after that. Are those noncon games the first few weeks of November that important to you? I don’t think it’s worth the risk to bring COVID to campus so that these buy/cupcake games can be played.
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Post by bigchuck on Jul 2, 2020 15:19:31 GMT -5
We are not that far apart on the facts and maybe even the risk, but we are on the responsibility side of the equation. I do not want to mandate that the elderly professor teach remotely, just let him make the choice. I as a 73 year old with conditions can decide to isolate or not. I am making that choice every day. I am sure that not everyone agrees with my choices, but they are mine. I do not want my grandkids to stop living so I can see them more. I do not hug them as often and we do not spend much time indoors together. I do think it is worth the risk to see them keeping social distance and will go to the cookout this weekend with social distance. Others think I am crazy, but again my choice after I have educated myself to the risks of these decisions. I chose not to stop living and isolate. If I get the virus I have a risk of dying, but not a large risk, even being in the vulnerable population. Personal responsibility should play a bigger role in the process and should not mandated for the masses.
I do not want to mandate the athlete to compete, but we cannot not reward him or her if he does not compete. If the scholarship athlete does not play this season do they deserve a scholarship? The NBA player will not get paid. The actor in a theater will not get paid. I doubt the TA or lab assistant would receive their stipend. What makes an athlete different? They can come back on scholarship next year just like the student that has to take the year off because of their personal finances.
ND financial structure does not compare with most public or private schools. U of M submitted an athletic budget with a 69 million loss projected. The football coach made the news because he took a 10% pay cut after he received his 10% raise. What fantasy world are we living in that we believe things can return to normal next year if we don't make some very tough decisions this year? Liability is a concern, but hopefully congress will address that soon.
I do not know the details of UDM's finances and how they can continue operating if we have a wave 2. Besides loss of sports revenue many students may not return for financial reasons. Foreign students will not be back and they pay big dollars. Fixed costs for our campuses cannot be significantly reduced. The continued existence of many universities are a risk to be considered too.
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Post by calihanmole on Jul 2, 2020 15:31:35 GMT -5
Fair. I think you’re looking at it from the view as a fan or someone who generally is ok with economic growth at risks to the public good. I’m looking at it from a liability and public relations view. I don’t see congress granting universities liability for COVID, but I guess we will see.
The real issue, regardless of which one of us is right, is that the dominoes will likely eventually fall. Just like when the Ivy League canceled their bb tournament. They were ahead of things, and they raised the question as to whether or not others should be playing. Who’s to say how much the Ivy League really influenced that vs. actual COVID outbreaks, but you get what I’m saying. I suspect that by early August one P5 team will say no fall sports and the dominoes fall. Time will tell. I REALLY hope that cases and deaths go down, and that ICU capacity doesn’t become a problem. It’d be great to have fall sports, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Especially once the faculty around the country start petitioning.
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Post by calihanmole on Jul 2, 2020 15:39:31 GMT -5
Also, keep in mind what the perception will be in a few weeks. Cases are still rising (at least reported cases). People will likely gather for the Fourth of July holiday this weekend and we could see a really bad spike in late July, just as many campuses prepare for dorm move in. What’s a college president supposed to say if that happens and the nightly news every night just talks about COVID, ICU capacity, and more deaths? “We realize this pandemic is still bad and not over, but we feel our students are generally safe. Sure, they might get sick and strain your local hospitals. But, nearly half the COVID deaths are nursing home residents anyway. They had their lives. We’re playing football dammit!”
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Post by udballer on Jul 2, 2020 20:26:26 GMT -5
Good points all around.
I wonder why we don't just stop testing for COVID and keep the numbers right where they are? 😉
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Post by bigchuck on Jul 3, 2020 10:13:25 GMT -5
Also, keep in mind what the perception will be in a few weeks. Cases are still rising (at least reported cases). People will likely gather for the Fourth of July holiday this weekend and we could see a really bad spike in late July, just as many campuses prepare for dorm move in. What’s a college president supposed to say if that happens and the nightly news every night just talks about COVID, ICU capacity, and more deaths? “We realize this pandemic is still bad and not over, but we feel our students are generally safe. Sure, they might get sick and strain your local hospitals. But, nearly half the COVID deaths are nursing home residents anyway. They had their lives. We’re playing football dammit!” Maybe I just hope leaders would lead, analyze the true facts and not what tv news calls the truth. Trust that people are actually be able to understand a reasonable plan and that everything is not an absolute binary choice. Why do all college athletics have to be cancelled? Is a cross country at any more danger participating than being in class? Likewise a golfer, swimmer, tennis player, base ball (if catcher wore face shield)? Basketball would probably be among the most dangerous sports, maybe even more so than football where they could all wear face shields as may already do. I enjoyed some great English Premier Soccer games yesterday played in empty stadiums. Football could do that to eliminate crowds. Live streaming of sports events enables fans to enjoy without crowding into stadiums. It is so disappointing that everything is presented as a binary choice rather than analyzing the true spectrum of options that could be available. This is true whether analyzing college athletic or banning all of the items you stated ND has banned for the entire year. Just a rant because I know this issue is just systematic of a much larger in society today.
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Post by calihanmole on Jul 5, 2020 22:05:27 GMT -5
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Post by ptctitan on Jul 6, 2020 7:14:18 GMT -5
Although I understand any university's concern about student health, if 1 death is all it takes, then all universities should just fold their tents and dissolve. They offer little value to any student if a 1 death in 55,000 enrolled students is a reason to go and hide. That's patently absurd. The nation is currently experiencing a reported death rate from all causes that is significantly below the normal average death rate. Explain that anomaly smart university professors. Antibody tests suggest that anywhere from about 14 million to 50 million people in the USA already have experienced the virus. Antibody test results are also being counted by the CDC and States in its cumulative case numbers. So, we know how many people have had the virus; but we don't know how many people currently have the virus. We do know that the hospitalization rates for the virus are about 2.5% of newly positive test results. And we do know that the death rate is falling to such a small level that COVID will no longer meet the threshold of a pandemic in a few more days. Sounds to me like too many universities have become fat, dumb and happy on CARES money and other subsidies. I say this as a survivor of the flu during the 1968-69 pandemic.
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