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Post by Commissioner on Oct 29, 2020 7:54:37 GMT -5
Milwaukee
Strengths: Front court size; Te’Jon Lucas Concerns: 3 point shooting; defense; unproven bench; coaching
(There is some question about whether UTEP transfer Jordan Lathon gets a waiver to play this year. The Milwaukee roster lists him as sitting out the season; Jeff Goodman does not list him as having a waiver request either approved or pending. This preview, therefore, assumes he's sitting out the 2020-21 season.)
After the 2016 season, three Horizon coaches got the axe, even though all three were coming off winning seasons. At Wright State, Billy Donlon was let go, despite his 22-13 season (his 3rd 20-win season in four years). The Raiders hired Scott Nagy, and have risen higher since. For the others, it didn’t work so well. Detroit let Ray McCallum go after a 16-15 season, and have won just 35 games in 4 seasons since. And Milwaukee fired Rob Jeter after a 20-13 record. Like the Titans, the Panthers haven’t had a winning season since. LaVall Jordan inherited a massive rebuilding job, went 11-24, and skedaddled down to Butler. Pat Baldwin is 37-58 in three seasons since. That’s a .369 winning percentage post-Jeter, a number only a Titan fan might envy.
This season Baldwin has to be on the hot seat. There’s probably just two things that can save him—a winning season or, barring that, news that his 5-star recruit son, Patrick, Jr., has decided to follow the example of Ray McCallum and play for his father. Patrick is, in fact, even more highly rated than McCallum was, and is sitting on offers from Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, UCLA, Michigan, and just about anybody else that matters in college ball. He is rated the #1 or #2 prospect in the country by every major recruiting service. (Ray was barely in the top 25). Junior is just too good, I think, to choose Milwaukee. But for now, at least, Panther fans—and maybe Dad--can still hope. But what about Plan A—winning this year? The Panthers aren’t void of weapons, but I am very doubtful that they have enough.
The line-up starts with point guard Te’Jon Lucas, a second-team all-conference player last year. Last year he led the league in assists and steals per game, was top 5 in A/TO ratio and FT Percentage, while averaging 14.6 ppg. That's a real nice anchor for the lineup. But after that... ?
Lucas will probably be joined in the starting backcourt by senior Josh Thomas, who averaged 10 points last season as a 6th man early and a starter late in the season. Thomas will have to battle for the starting spot, though, with 6-5 swingman D’Andre Gholston, who comes to the Panthers from Kent State, via a year at Tallahassee CC. Thomas needs to improve on his 25% shooting from behind the arc, and watch his turnovers. Gholston was a dud at Kent but ranked the #34 juco recruit in the country last year. Either should be a respectable backcourt compliment to Lucas.
Baldwin also has three pretty good-looking freshmen guards in Donovan Newby, Kaleim Taylor, and Devon Hancock. Newby and Taylor should battle to be the back-up point guard. Since Lucas will probably play about 35 minutes per game, that’s not a huge role, but it will be an important one. My money is on the Chicago kid, Newby, who is no scorer but has a strong all-around floor game and is said to run the offense well. Taylor, though, is intriguing. He’s a bull at 6-3, 220 lbs., and shot 64% from the floor and 40% from three in high school, while averaging over 6 assists. He also averaged over 10 rebounds as a junior. But all that was done at a small school. Hancock should get some time at the #2 slot, especially if Gholston disappoints.
Up front Baldwin will call on a couple of sophs who distinguished themselves last year, C.J. Wilbourn and Courtney Brown. If the can each take a solid step forward from good freshmen years, Milwaukee could be quite competitive this season--but that's a big if. Wilbourn, at 6-7, 230 lbs., is the big power forward. Last year he started every game except senior night, and made the conference All-Freshman team despite unimpressive top line stats of 4.4 points and 2.9 rebounds. Brown, also 6-7 but 20 pounds lighter, moved into the starting lineup in mid-season, but overall put up very similar top line stats, 4.6 points and 2.9 rebounds. As suggested by the weight difference Brown—who’s hardly skinny—is more of a perimeter player than Wilbourn, and will shoot the three.
Coach Baldwin has a couple options for the last slot. Most likely is Amir Allen, a 6-8, 225 lb. senior center. After starting 30 games as a soph, a recurrent groin injury limited Allen to just 23 games last year. He was dropped from the starting lineup at the start of conference play, never to return, and played just 27 minutes total over the season’s final four games. When fit and on his game, Allen plays pretty good interior defense and is a fair rebounder and interior scoring option. It’s not clear how much of Allen’s drop in playing time was due to the injury, and how much due to losing the confidence of Coach Baldwin, but he’s still at least a more proven option than the alternatives. Allen probably plays when Baldwin wants strength in the middle. When he wants more scoring and movement, the nod probably will go to Vin Baker, a 6-9, 190 lb. transfer from Boston College. Baker played in 29 games as a freshman, but just 12 last year.
Along Wilbourn, Brown, Allen, and Baker, up front the Panthers have 6-7 juco transfer Tafari Sims, who was rated among the top 150 juco recruits by Juco Recruiting. Sims will make a bid to start in that 5th spot I’ve tentatively notched for Allen, and should get major minutes either way. Freshman Grant Coleman, a 6-7 all-stater, might also work his way into the mix. And the Panthers also have Joey St. Pierre, a transfer from D-2 Wisconsin-Parkside who is a walk-on at Milwaukee. Normally, I’d spend no time on a walk-on, but St. Pierre is a 6-10, 275 lb. monster who originally signed with UTEP out of high school. He left UTEP in October of his freshman year, citing a need to be closer to his family in Illinois, and ended up at Parkside. His stats at Parkside weren’t great but they weren’t bad, either—roughly 10 points, 5 rebounds per game, and 2 blocks per game, while shooting about 55% from the floor, in each of two seasons. St. Pierre may end up, like most walk-ons, riding the pine. But he seems like the rare walk-on who could be a contributor. Any time a guy of his size shows up in the Horizon, it merits a mention.
Lucas is a nice talent who, with a better team, would probably contend for HL Player of the Year Honors. There’s some good size here, and some promising freshmen and sophomores. On the other hand, the core group is not much changed from last year’s 12-19 club, except that they lost their leading scorer and three point shooter, Darius Roy. I think Baker and freshmen guards will be solid upgrades from last year’s bench, but they are definitely unproven at this point, and while Wilbourn and Brown both had very credible freshman campaigns, they’ll have to take a step forward if this team is going to go anywhere. Sims and Gholston will help, but neither is a game-changer. The team is very short of three point shooting, and was weak on defense last year. A middle-of-the-pack finish would be a good result.
Probable Starters PG: Te’Jon Lucas, 6-2 RS Sr. (14.6 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.3 rpg, 31.7% 3PtFG) SG: Josh Thomas, 6-4 Sr. (10.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg) SF: Courtney Brown, 6-7 Soph. (4.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 33.3% 3PtFG) PF: C.J. Wilbourn, 6-7 Soph. (4.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg) C: Amir Allen, 6-8 Sr. (3.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg)
Key Reserves: PG: Donovan Newby, 6-1 Fr. PG: Kaliem Taylor, 6-3 Fr. SG: Devon Hancock, 6-3 Fr. SF/SG: D’Andre Gholston, 6-5 Jr. (11.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 44.1% 3PtFG at Tallahassee CC) F: Tafari Sims, 6-7 Jr. (11.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg @ West Texas JC) F: Vin Baker, 6-9 RS Jr.. (1.3 ppg w/ Boston College in 2019)
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 30, 2020 7:41:01 GMT -5
Northern Kentucky
Strengths: Wings; ball movement; defense Concerns: Size and lack of front court depth; three-point shooting
In 5 short years, the Norse have established themselves as one the league’s dominant programs. They’ve won 95 games over the past 4 years, with two regular season titles and three conference tournament championships. But the Norse were hit hard by graduation (second team All-Conference selection Tyler Sharpe and third-team All Conference selection Dantez Walton) and transfers (third team All-Conference Jalen Tate and starting center Silas Adheke), and will have to scramble to stay near the top of the Horizon this year.
One guy the Norse are counting on to take it up a notch is former Titan signee Adrian Nelson, who, you may recall, decommitted from Detroit when Bacari Alexander was dismissed. Nelson has bided his time for two seasons, playing an effective but limited role on deep, talented, teams. This year, however, he is the only front court player on the roster with any D-1 experience, except for a few garbage minutes under the belt of 6-10 walk-on center David Wassler. Last year Nelson averaged 6.3 rebounds in 17.6 minutes per game. Lindy’s, that venerable but not always terribly accurate pre-season publication, has projected him as an all-conference selection this year, and that wouldn’t surprise. I was really pleased when Bacari signed Nelson. He is indeed a tough rebounder, and does lots of little things well that don’t always show up in the box score. With NKU’s top three scorers (Walton, Sharpe and Tate) from last year gone, we’ll have to see if Nelson can add a bit more offense to his game. Last year he averaged just 4.6 points. At Pickerington Central High School, as at NKU so far, he played on loaded teams that didn’t need him to score a lot, but my sense was that he could score when the team needed him to. This year, though, the Norse have little proven scoring, so we’ll have to see if he can take it up a notch. Though he hasn’t scored a lot in two seasons with the Norse, he’s been very efficient, hitting 68% of his field goal attempts last year, and 60% as a freshman. As those numbers suggest, his is a strictly inside game—he’s yet to throw up a even a single desperation three to beat the shot clock.
The Norse will also be counting on 6-8, 220 lb. redshirt freshman John Harge to deliver. Both Lindy’s and Three Man Weave have plugged Harge in as presumptive Freshman of the Year in the Horizon. It could happen. Harge is a very nice prospect. A year ago, I listed as one of “five freshman to watch” in the league, before a pre-season ACL injury sat him down for the year, so I like him, for sure. Still, the Norse are counting on an awful lot from a freshman recovering from knee surgery.
Horn will almost certainly use a three-guard lineup, because the only other scholarship forward/center on the roster is 6-8 freshman David Bohm, out of the Czech Republic via the Montverde Prep Academy in Florida. He played for the Czechs in FIBA U18 ball. Like a lot of the European (and American, I guess) big men, he likes to stand out on the perimeter and bomb threes. To be honest, I don’t expect much from him this year, but it can be hard to tell with these guys, and he should get his chances given the lack of size on the roster.
One of the guards is set: Trevon Faulkner is the club’s top returning scorer (11.9 ppg). The Norse need him to do better than last year’s 28.9% from three, however. The early favorite to start at another guard spot has to be 5-9 Junior Bryson Langdon. Langdon took advantage of injuries to Walton and Tate to start 22 games last year, and led the team with 3.3 assists per game, finishing third in the conference in assist/turnover ratio. He tossed in 7.6 points per game as well, but like Faulkner, needs to up his three-point shooting from year’s 30.1%.
There should be good competition for that final starting spot. Redshirt junior Paul Djoko is the senior man in the competition. The Frenchman Is a very good defender, but he’s got no offensive game (1.6 ppg last year, 1.7 as a freshman in 2019). He rarely even shoots, which is wise—his career 3-point percentage is 25.9%, his career FT mark 49.1. He has put it in when he gets close to the basket, a career 54% shooter from two. But when he’s out there, NKU is basically playing 4 on 5 when it has the ball—you don’t need to guard Djoko beyond making sure he doesn’t slip into the paint unwatched. NKU needs points a lot more this year than a year ago, so I think Djoko will be coming off the bench in defensive situations.
6-5 senior Adham Eleeda is another possibility. Eleeda played in 25 games last year, starting 1, after coming in from the strong juco program at Sheridan College. He was supposed to give NKU another long-range threat, but he made just 25.3% of his three point attempts. Eleeda averaged over 15 minutes a game last year, but unless he really picks up his three point shooting, it’s more likely he’ll see diminished playing time than that he’ll crack the starting lineup.
The more likely choice will be one of a couple newcomers. 6-5 Junior Darius Harding brings some size and 19.3 points per game at Motlow State CC to the fray. He’s also a good rebounder, which may make a difference. But I’ll go with another newcomer, Northern Arizona transfer Carlos Hines. Hines averaged 12.9 points and 4 assists for NAU in 2019. He also led the Lumberjacks in three point buckets, although, like too many NKU guards, his percentage was low—just .298. Still, at 6-4 he’s also got some size, he’s a proven scorer, which NKU needs, and though turnover prone, he can play the point, a plus. Indeed, if Hines can keep his turnovers under control to play the point full time, I think it’s likely we’ll frequently Faulkner, Harding and Hines in the lineup together, knocking Langdon to the bench.
A couple freshmen may also help out. Trey Robinson is a 6-6 guard from Cincinnati who had A10 and MVC offers. Marquis Warrick was a Kentucky all-state selection after putting up 23 points per game in high school and making 43% of his threes. Both should be long-term contributors, but what they’ll do this year is more up in the air. I do expect both to get meaningful minutes this season. As a side note, they’ve also got a walk-on, Noah Hupmann, who is definitely not ready to play this year, but who is really tall (7-1).
The Norse have a bunch of guys in the 6-3 to 6-6 size range, and you can win with that kind of line-up these days—the Norse basically did that last year, although they also had the big man Adheke. But this year the team is even smaller, and doesn’t return anyone with the proven performance that Walton, Sharpe, & Tate brought to last year’s club. They’re counting on a big step forward from Nelson, and serious help from the freshman Harge. I like both those guys, but objectively, neither has come close to doing what NKU will ask of them this year, and there are really are no other options if either doesn’t come through. The Norse make up for the lack of front court size somewhat with good-sized guards and coach Darrin Horn’s guard-oriented style—after all, they didn’t have much size last year, either. The Norse were not particularly strong in three-point shooting last year, and lost their two marksmen, Walton and Sharpe. Hines may or may not help with distance shooting, and there’s hope that Faulkner, Langdon, and Eleeda can all do better. If none of them can get above 30% that could create an opening for the freshman Warrick.
I think Horn is a good coach, and It’s hard not to favor a team that has done as well as Northern over the past 4 seasons. Probably for that reason some of the national publications are putting NKU near the top of the Horizon heap. But I really don’t see the Norse challenging for the regular season title in 2021--a second division finish is more likely.
Probable Starters PG: Bryson Langdon, 5-9 Jr. (7.6 ppg, 3.3 apg, 30.9% 3PtFG) SG: Trevon Faulkner, 6-3 Jr. (11.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 28.9% 3Pt FG) G: Carlos Hines, 6-4 RS Jr. (12.9 ppg, 4.0 apg, 29.8% 3PtFG at Northern Arizona in 2019) F: Adrian Nelson, 6-7 Jr. (4.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 68.4% FG) F: John Harge, 6-8 RS Fr.
Key Reserves: G: Paul Djoko, 6-4 RS Jr. (1.6 ppg) G: Adham Eleeda, 6-5 Sr. (3.4 ppg, 25.3% 3PtFG) G: Marques Warrick, 6-3 Fr. G/SF: Darius Harding, 6-5 Jr. (19.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg at Motlow State CC) G/SF: Trey Robinson, 6-6 Fr. F: David Bohm, 6-8 Fr.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 30, 2020 21:05:19 GMT -5
We'll go slightly out of alphabetical order here, on the very slim chance we'll hear something from the NCAA re Oakland's waiver requests in the next few days.
Wright State
Strengths: Front line; Scott Nagy Concerns: Who will play point; depth
Scott Nagy has won 71 games in 3 seasons as WSU coach, giving the Raiders 5 consecutive 20-win seasons for a total of 113 wins, more than any team in the conference over that span. They’ve won the last two regular season titles, and the tournament title the year before that. With 2020 Player of the Year Loudon Love returning, the Raiders will be a favorite for the league title again. The Raiders lost two all-conference players (Billy Wampler, 15.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 40.4% from three, Second Team AC; and Cole Gentry, 10.2 ppg, 40.3 from three, Third Team AC), however, from a team that was good but not especially deep. Also gone is Jordan Ash, a steadying influence off the bench last year after transferring in from Northwestern.
There's really no need to say more about Love (15.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg), the league's presumptive Player of the Year. He'll anchor the lineup. He is joined by two other returning starters, All-Freshman selection Tanner Holden (11.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), a 6-6 wing who started all but one game, a redshirt junior Jaylon Hall (7.8 ppg), a 6-5 guard.
Also back is another All-Freshman selection, Grant Basile, a 6-9 forward with a traditional low post game. Basile started 5 games last December when Love was injured, and averaged 13.8 points and 10 rebounds in those games, but Nagy put him back on the bench when Love returned. It will be interesting to see if Basile starts alongside Love this year, giving the Raiders a potentially very powerful 1-2 punch, or has to wait another season. I initially thought that Nagy would continue to bring Basile off the bench, but the rumors out of Dayton suggest Nagy is going to go “twin towers.” And as I thought about, it makes sense—go with your best. He can get Love and Basile plenty of rest and have one on the court at all times. And Nagy still has 6-7 James Manns off the bench. Basile likely starts.
The big question for WSU is who will play the point. Hall actually had more assists last year than point guard Cole Gentry. But although Hall is a good passer, he is no point guard, and had nearly two-and a half times more turnovers than Gentry. The job likely falls to Trey Calvin, who averaged 4.8 points and 1 assist last season as a true freshman, appearing in all 32 games. It was a decent freshman season, but he's going to have to get better, or Nagy will have to find someone else for this team to realize the potential of the Love/Basile/Holden front line. However, there aren't many candidates. Nagy has a trio of freshman guards, Alex Huibregtse, Andrew Welage, and Andre Harris (a redshirt freshman) as candates. But while all three are solid recruits, they’re all really off-guards. Same for Tim Finke, a transfer from Grand Canyon who could start, depending on how Nagy wants to configure things.
A lot of folks are really high on Finke—-Three Man Weave, for example, has him on their all-newcomer team. I’m a bit more skeptical. Finke was a hot commodity as a high school soph, getting offers from Ohio State, Illinois, Notre Dame, and many other power schools. But interest slackened during his junior year and tanked after a disappointing AAU season that summer. Things didn’t pick back up during his senior year, the offers fell away, and Finke ended up at Grand Canyon, playing for Dan Majerle. There he started OK—through the season’s first 11 games he averaged 4.9 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 38.9% from three. But for the middle third of the season, those numbers fell to 3.0 points and 2.6 rebounds; and for the final 11 games, he averaged just 1.8 points and 2.3 rebounds, while shooting 20% from three. And, to slice it further, for just the final 8 games, it was 1.5 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 14% from three. Finke might regain his mojo, but he looks to me like a guy who developed early and stalled out.
Manns, meanwhile, averaged about 8 minutes per game over 25 games last year. He can score—in a three game stretch last December against Indiana State, Southern, and Mississippi Valley State, he put up 58 points in 54 minutes of court time—-but he’s at best a lackadaisical defender, and at worst one of the poorest defenders in the league.
The Raiders have most of the key parts, to be sure, but somebody is going to have to step up and man the point. Nagy has been saying this is the deepest team he's had at WSU, but it's hardly obvious--Finke, and the inconsistent Manns, are pretty much it, unless the freshmen guards come through. Another possible weakness is three point shooting. Gentry and Wampler accounted for 55% of WSU’s three point baskets last year, and the returning players shot just 31% last year. Holden (42.4%) and Hall (36.2%) both hit a good percentage but didn’t shoot a lot. Calvin has to improve on his 25.4%. The potential shortage of three point shooting may get Manns his minutes regardless of his defense, or lack thereof. Last year he averaged 45% from three in 49 attempts. Finke is another possibility for three point scoring.
Love is good for 15 to 18 points and 8 to 10 rebounds per night. I love Tanner Holden—he’s one of those all-around gems who looks better and better as you look closer and closer. Basile is a potential star and Hall is solid. If the Raiders can fill the point adequately, this team could be very good. If not, well, point guard is a pretty important position, as Oakland found out last year when, lacking a reliable point guard, the Grizz ended up 6th, despite the league’s best front line. There’s enough at the Nutter to keep the Raiders a favorite, but put them down for first place in pencil, not ink.
Projected Starters: PG: Trey Calvin, 6-0 Soph. (4.8 ppg, 1.0 apg) G: Jaylon Hall, 6-5 RS Jr. (7.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 36.2% 3PtFG) G/SF: Tanner Holden, 6-6 Soph. (11.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.3 spg, 42.4% 3PtFG) F: Grant Basile, 6-9 RS Soph. (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) C: Loudon Love, 6-8 Sr. (15.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 1.5 bpg)
Other Key Players: G: Andre Harris, 6-3 RS Fr G: Tim Finke, 6-5 RS Soph. (3.5 ppg, 36.7% 3PFG at Grand Canyon in 2019) F: James Manns, 6-7 RS. Jr. (5.7 ppg, 44.9% 3PtFG)
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Post by ptctitan on Oct 31, 2020 6:19:43 GMT -5
Cole Gentry was the most underappreciated player in the HL for the past 3 seasons. He was the glue that held WSU together. When he was defended well or just had a bad game, WSU usually had trouble. When NKU stomped WSU in the 2019 HL finals, the Norse first half defense on Gentry put the Raiders in a big hole. Same in the semifinal game at Indy earlier this year. UIC's guards defended Gentry hard and they had a front line that could stay with Love. This is not a knock against Love, Holden or others. But they looked good because they were given the ball in the right spots because Gentry ran Nagy's offense well.
Also, the rest of the league, on balance, has improved and become bigger. WSU and NKU will not play as many games against teams where they possess a great disparity in talent, skill, and experience. This should make for a more competitive league offset by the quirkiness of the rumored HL schedule in which there are no home and home games. A lot may depend upon which teams you draw at home and which you draw on the road.
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Post by Commissioner on Nov 1, 2020 9:14:00 GMT -5
Youngstown State
Strengths: Experience, cohesiveness, rebounding Concerns: Depth; Proven 3 point shooting; stats suggest an overperforming team last year
This isn’t your father’s Youngstown State. The Penguins got, well, if not a home run, at least an extra-base hit when they hired Jerrod Calhoun to replace Jerry Slocum as head coach 3 years ago. Whether Calhoun negotiated it or YSU had determined to do so anyway, the school has also been devoting more resources to basketball. They’ve shown steady improvement under Calhoun, from 8 to 12 to 18 wins, and are poised to, ahem, is this even possible... contend for the HL title this year. Last year was the Penguins first winning season since 2013, and only their second winning season ever in conference play in 19 years in the Horizon. I’ve commented in the past the Penguins role in the Horizon was to finish last in basketball. Now they stand ready to upset the league’s center of gravity by actually contending.
YSU had considerable roster turnover in the offseason, but the team’s core stayed together. Darius Quisenberry, Naz Bohannon, Michael Akuchie, and Garrett Covington finished 1-4 on the team in minutes, scoring, and rebounding last year, with Quiz and Bohannon being 1-2 in assists.
Quisenberry, the point guard, is the star, a First Team All-Conference selection, and quite probably--take note Titan fans--the best junior guard in the league. He averaged 16.6 points and 4.2 assists last year, numbers upped to 18.2 and 4.8 during the Horizon season. He does just about everything but throw a mean underhanded curveball. Covington, a 6-5 wing, was an All-Defense selection last season for the second year in a row, and is capable of the occasional big game on the offensive end. Bohannan was the prize recruit of Calhoun’s first class. He’s an aggressive rebounder, finishing third in the league last year, and he’s a good passer with good hands. He also averaged 12.9 points per game last season in conference play. He’ll be joined up front by the 6-8 Akuchie, who after two years off the bench quietly emerged as a solid supporting cast member last year. He put up 9 points and 6 rebounds a game last season, and is one of the top 10 returning players in league conference play in rebounding, blocks, 3 point shooting, and free throw shooting.
For seniors Bohannon, Akuchie, and Covington, this season will their 4th playing together; Quisenberry joined the trio one year later. They know each other, and they play well together. The only real suspense in Youngstown is who will be the 5th starter.
To support the Big 4, Calhoun returns a couple of players from the back end of last year’s rotation, seniors Christian Bentley and Jamir Thomas, and adds a solid if unspectacular recruiting class. Although Bentley or Thomas could step into the starting lineup, it’s more likely we’ll see one of the newcomers there.
Calhoun typically plays a guard in that last spot, so that’s where we’ll look first. An interesting option is Greyson Kelley, who was a second team All-America at D-2 Shaw College last year, averaging 19.2 points, and shooting over 43 percent from three and almost 92 percent from the line. YSU needs three-point shooting—Quisenberry (31%) and Covington (25%) are at best average three point shooters, and while Akuchie knocked down 33 percent in conference play, his full season average was under 29 percent. Even if with the extra year of eligibility granted seniors, YSU is in a win-now mode, before Quisenberry turns pro, and Kelley seems a better bet than the freshmen. Can he step up from D-2? I think a D-2 All-American ought to be able to contribute at YSU. He doesn’t need to be an All-American, just a decent spot three point shooter who doesn’t get burned on defense.
The best of 4 freshmen guards is probably Alex Vargo, a first team All-Stater from West Virginia. He'll contend with Kelley for that 5th starting spot, and his size (6-5) will be a big advantage. Sheman Rathan-Mayes will challenge Bentley to be the back-up point guard. The other two--redshirt Daniel Ogoro and true freshman Myles Hunter--are wings. Either could see considerable court action. Up front, two freshmen should battle for time off the bench. Quincy, Michigan’s 6-8 William Dunn was a first team D-3 All-State selection three straight years. Chuck Traore, a native of the Ivory Coast, has a developed body at 6-8, 225 lbs., and had an offer from Winthrop, among others. But I expect Calhoun will play a pretty tight rotation this year, a Thomas, a 275 lb. senior, will carry most of the load. If Calhoun were to put Thomas in the lineup in place of Greyson (or some other third guard), then you've got to reconfigure things. But Calhoun has consistently used the three-guard lineup, and I don't think he'll change.
YSU’s 10-8 conference mark is a bit interesting, because the Penguins stat sheet isn’t that impressive. In conference play, YSU shot just 42.9%, to its opponents 46.1% (worst in the league). They were fourth in the league in three point shooting percentage, but 8th in opponents' three point shooting. They had a negative turnover margin (8th in the league), and though a good free throw shooting team, they didn’t get to the line a lot, and ended up making just 1 more free throw than their opponents. They had more shots blocked than they blocked shots, and had a negative ratio on steals, too. The one thing the Penguins did really well was rebound. They grabbed nearly 4 and a half rebounds more per game than their opponents in league play, a number putting them in the top 20 percent of teams nationwide. Could it be last year's 18 wins was a bit of a fluke? I don't think so, because I think the talent is there. But I'm also a stats guy, and I know that teams that overperform their stats tend to decline. We'll see.
The COVID-shortened season may prevent YSU from winning 20 games for the first time since 1998, but I’m going to guess that with post-season play, 20 is in the cards. This is a very experienced team and a team whose core members have played together from the start. They are well coached and should make a run for the Horizon title.
Probable Starters: PG: Darius Quisenberry, 6-1 Jr. (16.6 ppg, 4.2 apg, 3.6 rpg, 31.1% 3PtFG) SG: Greyson Kelley, 6-2 Sr. (19.2 ppg, 43.4% 3PtFg at Division 2 Shaw) G/SF: Garrett Covington, 6-5 Sr. (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 24.6% 3PtFG) F: Michael Akuchie, 6-8 Sr. (9.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 28.7% 3PtFG) PF: Naz Bohannon, 6-6 Sr. (11.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 51.7% FG)
Key Reserves: PG: Shemar Rathan-Mayes, 5-11 Fr. PG: Christian Bentley, 6-3 RS Sr. (2.6 ppg) SG: Alex Vargo, 6-5 Fr. SG: Myles Hunter, 6-5 Fr. F: William Dunn, 6-8 Fr. PF: Jamir Thomas, 6-8 Sr. (3.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg) PF: Cheick Traore, 6-8 Fr.
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Post by Commissioner on Nov 2, 2020 9:09:08 GMT -5
Oakland
Strengths: Backcourt; Free throw shooting; PR department Concerns: Lack of front court experience.
One begins to feel that things are wearing thin up in Rochester. The faux blacktop court was a cool gimmick for a while; now it’s increasingly just that weird shiny court that makes it almost impossible to watch games on the television or computer. Coach Greg Kampe has taken OU from a nothing D-2 program to D-1, then to the top of the Summit League, then over to the more competitive (at least at the time) Horizon, and made it one of the more competitive teams in the Horizon. But Kampe will turn 65 in early December. He’s still a good coach, but he seems a bit tired, and while still open and entertaining, his routine seems to be more rote than inspired anymore. It’s apparent that Kampe is never going to get a high-major job, or take OU to another, better conference, such as the Missouri Valley. It’s unlikely that OU becomes the dominant team in the Horizon in the next few years. The team has had losing seasons in five of the last 8 years, and last year slipped below .500 in the Horizon for the first time since its maiden season in the conference. It would be nice, I’m sure, to win an NCAA tournament game other than the play-in, or to lead OU to its first national ranking ever, but those goals seem out of reach for the coming year. One hears more and more rumbling—low but noticeable—among the OU faithful, that maybe it’s time for Kampe to hang ‘em up. And yet... the Coach already has 4 commitments for the Class of ’21, and a young squad this year that should be better next year. So maybe there’s one more mini “golden era” left in Kampe’s career. But before any chance of that, figure on at least one more season in waiting.
Oakland’s 13-man roster this year includes 6 freshmen, a sophomore guard who played in 14 games and averaged less than 4 minutes per game, a junior forward who has played 115 total minutes in two seasons, and a guard who began as a walk-on. But Kampe’s teams are never really bad—in twenty-one years in Division 1, he’s never fallen into the single digit win column (the Titans have had 5 such seasons in that time)—and OU will, at a minimum, be solid in the back court.
The team's star is Rashad Williams. Williams was an HL All-Freshman Team selection in 2019 with Cleveland State, when he led the league in three-point shooting at 40.8 percent. After transferring to Oakland, he waited until mid-January for the NCAA to approve his transfer waiver request, and after that it took him a while to find his stride. In his first 4 games he shot just 27.7% from the field. But in game 5 of his return he lit up the Titans for 37 points, and followed that with 34 against league powerhouse Northern Kentucky. For his last 11 games, he averaged 21.3 ppg, although his three point shooting was down from 2019, at just 33.3%. Williams can score in bunches, and he gets to the foul line regularly, where he averaged 85.5% last season.
Williams is usually listed as a point guard, but in each of his first 2 years he’s averaged more turnovers than assists. Better to get him off the ball. My guess is that the point will fall to 5-10 junior Jalen Moore, a third-team Juco All-America last season. Last year he averaged 22.3 points and 6.2 assists per game, with a nearly 2-1 assist/turnover ratio. As a freshman he put 19.3 points and 7.9 assists per game, with a better than 3/1 assists/turnover ratio. He also knocked down 41% of his threes as a freshman, and 37% last year. He is a very good free throw shooter (about 80%) and extremely good at getting to the line—he led the juco ranks in free throw attempts last year. He the type of player who has excelled in Kampe’s system, and I think will step right in.
If Moore does falter, however, Kampe can fall back on Kevin Kangu and Blake Lampman. Kangu, a 6-4 senior, averaged 3.5 assists last year and also had a solid assist/turnover ratio. But poor shooting (32.4% overall, just 25% from three) forced him from the lineup once Williams was cleared to play. Lampman, a sophomore, is the former walk-on, but he surprised last year, making the Horizon All-Freshman team. Lampman had a nice 3/1 assist/turnover ratio, but like Kangu, averaged just 5.1 points, despite averaging nearly 25 minutes per game. Lampman shot just 32% from three, respectable, but not especially good considering his main use was to provide 3-point shooting before Williams’s arrival. With Williams and Moore now on the roster, that isn’t going to help OU much. Despite the good A/TO ratio, Lampman is a spot-up three point shooter, not a point guard, so if Moore falters and Lampman gets the call, it probably means Williams at the point, where he is less effective, or another try for Kangu. That just emphasizes that Moore may be the key to this team’s success in 2021.
Trying to force their way into the rotation at guard are sophomore Emmanuel Newsome, who played in just 14 games last year, and freshman Joey Holifield. Newsome is the grandson of former Western Michigan star Manny Newsome, who was second in the nation in scoring in 1964 at over 32 points per game. No major role for Emmanuel, however-- he may be lucky to score 32 points this season. Holifield, an Ohio Division III all-stater, is more likely to see meaningful minutes. He’s a very solid recruit, and Kampe isn’t afraid to play freshman. Holifield averaged over 21 points in high school and handles the ball well enough to play point in short stretches. He starts with 4 guards ahead of him, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Holifield earn some minutes ahead of both Lampman and Kangu.
It’s up front where OU has some real question marks. The sure thing is power forward Daniel Oladapo, who averaged 9.2 points and 6.3 rebounds last year, while shooting a healthy 55 percent. But the only other returning front court player is 6-10 Babatunde Sowunmi, a nice young man who was vastly overhyped by Tony Paul and others when he signed with OU in the fall of 2017. In 33 games over two seasons, Sowunmi has averaged 0.5 points and 1.1 rebounds. But if he’s going to emerge this ought to be the year—he’s had two seasons to grow into a D-1 ballplayer, and there is literally no one in his way on this roster. I remain skeptical.
Of the newcomers, look for Western Illinois transfer Zion Young—if he gets a waiver. If he gets the waiver, he’ll start at small forward, and will add scoring and, more specifically, three-point shooting. His skill set should do well in the OU system. If Young isn’t cleared, look for 6-8 redshirt freshman Yusuf Jihad or 6-6 freshman Trey Townsend to get the call. Jihad is said to have a good offensive game, and Kampe has been touting Townsend. The final starter is likely to be 6-10 freshman Chris Conway. Conway reportedly had offers from DePaul and UAB, as well as several Horizon and MAC schools. He’s a bit skinny at 215 lbs., but again, there is nothing standing in his way at OU. I have him projected to the All-Freshman team.
OU looks a whole lot better with the veteran Young starting and the freshmen Jihad and Townsend coming off the bench. Two other freshmen forwards are Joseph Philpps and Micah Parrish. Parrish had a public offer from Detroit when he graduated in 2019, but went the prep school route for a year. I don't see him as ready for a meaningful rule this year. Philpps had an offer from Southern. He has the size and bulk to play this year, but probably needs a year or more just to get better. If the young forwards don’t come through, we may regularly see a 3-guard lineup.
As I said earlier, Kampe never puts a really bad team on the floor, but a third straight losing season seems a distinct possibility. True, in Williams, Moore, and the freshman Holifield, he’s got three guards who are well suited for his system. And don’t forget the free throw shooting ability of Moore and Williams—that’s potentially a lot of extra points, and with those two on the floor it will be very hard to catch Oakland by fouling. But up front, Kampe’s got Oladapo, and, unless Young is eligible, nothing else save Baba and the Five Freshmen (not a bad name for an early ‘60s folk group). A couple of those 6 will have to come through. Conway is a pretty good bet, but if Young isn't cleared to play, he's probably not enough. Someone else will need to deliver now. We’ll see.
Probable Starters: PG: Jalen Moore, 5-10 Jr. (22.3 ppg, 6.2 apg at Central Olney CC) SG: Rashad Williams, 6-2 Jr. (19.5 ppg; 32.3% 3Pt FG) SF: Zion Young, 6-5 Jr. (13.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 41.3% 3PtFG at Western Illinois) (Pending Waiver Approval) or Yusuf Jihad, 6-8 Fr. PF: Daniel Oladapo, 6-7 Jr. (9.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 54.9% FG) PF/C: Chris Conway, 6-10 Fr.
Important Reserves PG: Kevin Kangu, 6-4 Sr. (5.1 ppg, 3.5 apg) PG: Blake Lampman, Soph. (5.1 ppg, 32.2% 3PtFG) SG: Joey Holifield, 6-3 Fr. SF: Yusuf Jihad, 6-8 RS Fr. PF: Trey Townsend, 6-6 Fr. PF: Joseph Philpps, 6-8 Fr. C: Babatunde Sowunmi, 6-10 Jr. (0.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg) (I list Baba only because, well, you never know. And he is tall).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2020 13:24:49 GMT -5
Time to move on to our teams. In past years, I've often used these previews to explore issues I think are interesting, such as which Horizon teams seem to have the biggest home court advantage; do older teams do better than younger teams; how much a team can realistically expect to increase its wins from one season to the next, do teams tend to do better or worse in the first year under a new coach, etc. This year I've either run out of things I care to explore, or I'm just too busy. So the previews are pretty nuts and bolts this year: Here's what each team has, and what I expect. But it'll still help you get to know the players, which seems to get harder each year, between grad transfers, waivers, etc. I thought I'd start with the league's two new members, so first up is Purdue-Fort Wayne. Purdue-Fort WayneStrengths: Guards? Concerns: Will the new guys make threes?; turnover prone lineup; free throw shooting. Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne, IPFW, Fort Wayne, Purdue-Fort Wayne joins the Horizon this year, bringing with it a great geographic fit and a cool nickname and mascot. Talk about branding confusion, though--the Mastodons seem to change the common name of their school every few years. But at least, unlike a certain favorite team on this board, they’re not giving up a lot of tradition in the process. In fact, there’s really no tradition. Fort Wayne (sorry Mastodon PR department, but “Purdue-Fort Wayne” is both too much of a mouthful and too long to type over and over) joined the ranks of Division 1 just 18 seasons ago, in 2003. Their all-time D1 winning percentage is just .468, a few ticks better than IUPUI (.464) and, of course, a lot better than Youngstown (.386), but worse than any other team in the conference. They’ve never played in the NCAA. That said, they’ve been reasonably successful for the past decade. Under young Dane Fife (Fife was 25 when hired before the 2005-06 season), the Mastodons got to a winning record for the first time in 2010 and 2011, before Fife departed for an assistant gig at Michigan State. After a couple losing seasons, they rebounded to 25 wins under Tony Jasick in 2014, reaching the CIT. Under current head coach Jon Coffman, they had 5 more winning seasons in a row through 2019, playing in 3 more CITs and snagging an NIT bid in 2016. Their big win was an overtime upset of #3 Indiana in the fall of 2016, assuredly the last time the Hoosiers will ever play in Fort Wayne. Last year, however, the Dons slipped to 14-19, their first losing season since 2013 and their first losing season in six years under Coffman. They averaged 1151 fans in attendance, down from 1369 the year before. That was their third straight decline from just under 2000 in 2016. Their all-time peak was 3393 in 2006. For his first Horizon League season, Coffman returns 3 starters plus last year’s #7 and #8 men, and adds some intriguing transfers to the mix. The returning starters are 6-11 center/forward Dylan Carl, a kid Ray McCallum had recruited hard out of Alma HS; junior guard Jarred Godfrey, who led the team last year in scoring (15.6 ppg), assists (3.5 apg) and minutes played; and 6-4 sophomore guard Deonte Billups, who averaged 11.1 points and a team-best 5.8 rebounds after moving into the starting rotation midway through the year. That landed Billups on the Summit League’s all-newcomer team. Coffman’s other returning rotation players are 6-0 senior guard Demeirre Black (5.8 ppg) and 6-8 senior forward Cameron Bedford (4.2 rpg). Neither figures to move up to a starting role, but both will provide experience and depth on the bench. Rather, look for 6-8 St. Bonaventure transfer Bobby Planutis, a perimeter-oriented big, or 6-9 Ra Kpedi, a Vermont transfer, at power forward, and one of two juco transfers, 6-6 Bryce Waterman or 6-5 Demetric Horton (more likely the latter), at the small forward position. Planutis started 3 games at St. Bonaventure last year, after being a starter at Mount St. Mary’s as a freshman. Kpedi, started 6 games for an NCAA-bound Vermont team in 2019, before sitting out last year. Both Kpedi and Planutis could start, with Planutis at the #3 and Kpedi the #4, if Coffman wants a big lineup. But I’m guessing one of the two will be first big off the bench behind Carl and whichever of the two starts. The Mastadons are still hoping for a waiver to allow Loyola (Ill.) transfer Jalon Pipkins to play this season. I wouldn't expect him to start but if cleared, he would contribute off the bench. IPFW had the double whammy last year from deep—the Mastodons took a lot of three-point shots (66th in the nation) and missed most of them (271st in shooting percentage from deep). And that was before their best three point shooter, Matt Holba, graduated, and their next best, Brian Patrick, did the grad transfer thing, to DePaul. Both Godfrey and Billups were in the low 30 percent range last year, so they’ve got to get better or get some help. Planutis, Waterman, and Horton all have the potential to boost the outside game. Planutis, the St. Bonaventure transfer, hit less than 25 percent for the Bonnies last year, but as a freshman knocked down 49% at Mount St. Mary’s. Horton was a 43% three-point shooter in the juco ranks, and Waterman made 104 threes (also at a 43% clip) as a freshman last year at Pensacola State CC. We might note that the Mastodons were also a poor free throw shooting team (67%), with the departed Patrick (81%) and Holba (69%) their best among qualifiers. And Fort Wayne was also just 230th in the country in turnover margin—something they don’t seem to have addressed in the off-season. Of the top three guards, Godfrey had just 2 more assists than turnovers last year, and Black and Billups had negative ratios. The Dons have a couple of Michigan kids on the roster in addition to Dylan Carl. Matt Havey (Lansing) is a walk-on redshirt sophomore, and Jarvis Walker (Muskegon) is a freshman guard. I don’t look for the Dons to compete for the title or anything, but they’ve got size and a nice mix of seniors and underclassmen. I think there’s enough here to be competitive, especially if transfers Planutis, Kpedi, and Horton come through. Still, put them in the bottom half—perhaps well into the bottom half—in your projections. Probable Starters:PG: Jerrod Godfrey, 6-5 Jr. (15.6 ppg, 3.5 apg, 30.6% 3Pt FG) SG: Deonte Billups, 6-4 Soph. (8.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 32.4% 3PtFG). SF: Demetric Horton, 6-5 Jr. (15.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 43.0% 3Pt FG at Independence CC). F: Bobby Planutis, 6-8 RS Jr. (5.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 24.7% 3Pt FG at St. Bonaventure) C: Dylan Carl, 6-11 RS Sr. (6.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 57.7% FG) Key Reserves:PG: DeMierre Black, 6-0 Sr., (5.8 ppg) SG: Jalon Pipkins, 6-4 Sr. (3.4 ppg at Loyola) (Waiting clearance from NCAA)SF: Bryce Waterman, 6-6 Soph. (12.4 ppg, 43% 3PtFG at Pensacola CC) F: Cameron Benford, 6-8 Sr. (2.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) PF: Ra Kpedi, 6-9 RS Jr. (2.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg at Vermont in 2019). Waiver received
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Post by Commissioner on Nov 4, 2020 23:07:26 GMT -5
Detroit
Strengths: Antoine Davis; potential Concerns: A lot of transfers, a lot of question marks
Mike Davis starts his third season at the helm in Calihan, and Titan fans want to win. Detroit has lost 90 games over the past four years, more than in any other four-year period in the school’s 111 seasons of ball. We’ve had six losing seasons in 7 years, broken only by a 16-15 mark in 2016. The lowest career winning percentage of any Titan head coach without “interim” in his title (20 coaches in 111 years)? Bacari Alexander. The next lowest? Mike Davis.
Davis had a very late start in recruiting his first class in the summer of 2018, and was hindered in recruiting the 2019 class by a post-season, APR-triggered ban (although there are many of us concerned that the role of the ban has been overstated). Not surprisingly, Davis is intent on winning now. The Titans loaded up with three grad transfers, plus senior Matt Johnson from St. Bonaventure, who has gained a waiver to play this year. And the Titans also picked up one of the league’s most intriguing transfers—or perhaps most intriguing freshman, as he qualifies in both categories—in 6-11 Noah Waterman, who came over from Niagara. It all makes for a lot of question marks, and the Titans are, correspondingly, perhaps the league’s biggest wild card when it comes to making predictions. But the upside potential is there.
The Titans start, of course, with the coach’s son, junior guard Antoine Davis. Davis is one of the most exciting players in college basketball, and if the Horizon administration had an ounce of sense they’d instruct referees to call tight on blocking off the ball, giving Davis more room to get free and generate national headlines. (Of course, as a Titan fan, I want to assure readers I have no vested interest in that recommendation). And yet, after two seasons of leading the HL in scoring, even AD is a bit of a question mark. As a freshman, Davis made over 42% of his three point attempts in the season’s first 18 games. But once Greg Kampe showed the league how to defend Davis—just beat the hell out of him all game long—he made just 31.6% the rest of the season. Last year his three point shooting was just 32.4%. Davis is still a very valuable player with those numbers, but not a great one. So, was he just a freshman who was hot for half a year, or can we expect that three-point percentage to bounce back this year? Davis was bothered by a nagging injury on his shooting hand for most of last season, and also had to handle the ball constantly, as the Titans were without another dependable ballhandler after BJ Maxwell got hurt before the season opener (Alonde LeGrand was passable ballhandler, but his lack of scoring allowed opponents to further gang on AD). And the Titans lacked another consistent scoring threat. Are those problems fixed? The hand should be better; we know Antoine will put in the work—tens of thousands of shots during the off-season; we know he can make magnificent plays. I suspect his true three-point shooting ability is in that 40 percent range. Given the number of shots AD takes, that is a huge difference from 32 percent, and will matter greatly to the Titans’ fortunes.
As secondary notes on AD, Davis averaged 4.5 turnovers per game last year, and number which needs to come down (and may be in part attributable due to the ability of his then teammates, and to fatigue from the minutes he was forced to log as the primary target of every defense). On the plus side, his 90% free throw shooting, best in the Horizon and 7th best nationally, can be a real plus at all times, and especially late in close games.
Coach Davis made it a priority to get some backcourt help for AD this year, and the Titans hope they’ve found it in Idaho grad transfer Marquell Fraser, or possibly the St. Bonaventure transfer Johnson. The Titans also have a couple of first year point guards in redshirt freshman Jamail Pink and true freshman Kyle LeGreair. I don’t expect either to see major court time, but if Johnson comes up short, that could change.
I look for Fraser to start opposite AD. He’ll get help from senior Dwayne Rose, who was frightfully inconsistent last year, but closed the season strong, averaging over 12 points and 4 rebounds over the last 9 games while shooting 47% from three. Rose’s main strength is getting to the basket, but he needs to get better at finishing—he shot just 38% from two-point range last year. Brad Calipari is a decent spot three-point shooter (38% last season), but he’ll likely be crowded for playing time. One of those crowding him could be freshman Joey Liedel, who electrified Michigan high school crowds with his NBA range three-point shooting. I think Liedel, who played at a small school, probably rides the pine and learns the college game this year. But the kid has a high basketball IQ, is a hard worker, and he sure as heck can shoot the rock.
Up front things get really interesting. There’s Waterman, the 6-11 freshman forward who is also a transfer from Niagara. He played in 7 games for the Purple Eagles last year, but a season ending injury gave him a redshirt year. In the 5 games in which he played serious minutes (he made only a cameo in the season opener, and then was injured early in game 7) he averaged 8.8 points and 3.8 rebounds. That makes him about as experienced at the college game as a freshman can be. But perhaps most interesting about Waterman is that he was listed on Niagara’s roster last year as a guard. In high school, Waterman was sophomore 6-2 point guard, before a growth spurt shot him in size and in collegiate prospects. He’s basically got a guard’s skill set in that 6-11 frame. He’s not likely to be a heavy banger in the paint, but he’ll still be a tall target underneath, and a potentially huge match-up problem for opponents when he’s on the perimeter. Of course, all this depends on him getting a waiver to play right away.
The Titans shouldn’t have to shove Waterman right into the starting lineup. That’s because Davis snagged 6-11 Taurean Thompson out of the Big East. Thompson was a freshman starter at Syracuse in 2017, but transferred to Seton Hall after the season. (Seton Hall was later found to have tampered in recruiting Thompson, earning NCAA sanctions). After sitting a year as a transfer, he struggled in 2019, with his stats falling by roughly half in virtually every category. Then last year he completely disappeared, playing in just 1 game (4 minutes) all season. No injury was ever reported—he just wasn’t played at all. But Thompson is still a smart young man in a big-time body, and the Titans hope he can regain the mojo that made him a 4-star high school recruit and Syracuse starter. It will be interesting to see how much Coach Davis uses Thompson and Waterman together in a twin towers lineup.
The Titan staff is also high on another grad transfer, Bul Kuol from California Baptist. Kuol is a good outside shooter with some height. A lot of Titan fans were disappointed to see Marquis Moore transfer, and Kuol’s job will be to make them forget Moore.
Thompson, Kuol, and Waterman will join junior Chris Brandon, a Horizon All-Defensive team selection last year. Brandon is the conference’s #2 returning player in rebounding and blocks from last year’s conference play, and #1 in shooting percentage. (That last stat, though , reflects his limited offensive game, mainly lob dunks and put-backs). Brandon can be a very high energy player, but needs to develop consistency, both from game to game and within each game. The presence of Thompson and Waterman should allow 6-8 junior Willy Isiani to go back to his strength, which is spot up three point shooting. But the fact that Willy was forced to play an inside power forward last year, and work on those skills, may prove to be a boon for him and Titans, giving him a stronger all-around game and making him more useful off the bench. If Waterman’s waiver doesn’t come through, expect a bigger role for Willy.
The big question marks are the transfers. Will Waterman even be cleared to play this year (the team is still waiting on the NCAA as of this date), and if so, what can we expect? He’s young and slender. The Titans seem high on Johnson but his contributions at St. Bonaventure were minimal. How will Thompson, Kuol, and Fraser perform? All have serious potential, but something to prove. Thompson is the one whose performance is most likely to be the difference between contention and relegation to the second division.
Seven years out from the last NIT bid, 8 from the last NCAA bid, the Titans can’t afford another uncompetitive season, and they certainly don’t want to waste the career of Antoine Davis. The time to win is now. This is a team that really could finish anywhere from 1st to 12th. Most prognosticators have them closer to the bottom than to the top, and while I don’t argue with that directly, I like this team’s upside more than the most of the teams below the top of the league. A third or 4th place finish would be a huge step forward for the Titan program.
Probable Starters PG: Antoine Davis, 6-1 Jr. (24.3 ppg, 4.5 apg, 32.4% 3PtFG) G: Marquell Fraser, 6-3 RS Gr. (7.1 ppg, 1.9 apg at Idaho) SF: Bul Kuol, 6-7 RS Gr. (5.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 47.5% 3PtFG at Cal-Baptist) PF: Chris Brandon, 6-8 Jr. (6.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 63.4% FG) PF/C: Taurean Thompson, 6-11 RS Gr. (1 game in 2020; 4.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg in 2019 for Seton Hall)
Key Reserves G: Matt Johnson, 6-4 Sr. (1.7 ppg at St. Bonaventure) SG: Dwayne Rose, 6-4 Sr. (7.3 ppg, 44.8% 3PtFG) SG: Brad Calipari, 6-4 Gr. (6.1 ppg, 38.0% 3PtFG) F: Willy Isiani, 6-8 Jr. (4.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 30.6%3PtFG) F/C: Noah Waterman, 6-11 RS Fr. (6.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 42.9% 3PtFG in 7 games at Niagara) (waiver pending)
Antoine Davis Watch: Titan fans might also enjoy watching Antoine Davis move up the career record books this season. Here are a few career marks he could approach.
Davis currently is first on the Titans career list for points per game, at 25.2. To stay there—ahead of Dave DeBusschere—he’ll have to average about 24 points per game this year, depending on how many games the Titans play.
If he does no more than average 24 points per game, while playing a 28 game schedule, it will be enough to slip past #3 DeBusschere, #2 John Long, and every other Titan great except for Rashad Phillips, on the Titans all-time scoring list. He would need 806 points this year to catch Rashad, or about 26.9 points per game if the Titans get deep enough into the post-season to play 30 games.
He ought to slip into the top ten in career assists, but probably no higher. In a 30 game season, he would need to average just over 6 per game to catch #9 Ramsey Nichols. He'll knock Sleepy Roy Simms out of the top 10.
He’ll need to average over 2 steals per game to crack the top 10 in that category. That may be out of reach until next season.
He’s already 6th all-time for three point field goals. He needs 143 to catch Phillips, probably but not definitely out of reach this year. He should, however, pass #3 Josh McFolley and #2 Desmond Ferguson in the season opener (Davis has 233, Ferguson 235).
He should enter the Titans top 10 for career free throws, probably ending the season somewhere around 3rd or 4th, but with a big season could catch the current #2, 1950s era great and two-time All American Norm Swanson. Phillips is #1 and can't be caught this year.
He also currently has the highest free throw percentage in Titan history. To stay ahead of Archie Tullos, whom he leads by a fraction of a point, he’ll need to average 88.2 percent this year—a number which, we should note, would be the 5th best single season number in Titan history.
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Post by Commissioner on Nov 8, 2020 9:07:24 GMT -5
Putting it all together.
Historically, I've been smart enough not to ever try to predict the standings--I just talk about the team's various strengths and weaknesses, and maybe make predictions as to the general likelihood of contending or not. In the Horizon, which is always pretty crazy, it makes little sense to try to predict a precise order of finish. But people like predictions like that, and I think the previews this year have been a bit less inspired than in the past. So what the heck, here goes:
1. Wright State Why Here: It’s the easy and safe pick. WSU is the defending regular season champ, and they have the league’s presumptive best player in defending POY Loudon Love. Grant Basile and Tanner Holden look like rising stars. And they’ve got a superb coach.
Why Not Here: They need a point guard, or it may all be for naught. Last year Oakland had the league's best overall front line, but could never straighten out the point position and finished below .500. So Trey Calvin (or someone) must step up to the job. If I were ranking teams just by their point guard, as of today I’d have WSU at #12. That’s an awfully important spot to be last in the league.
2. Youngstown State Why Here: Darius Quisenberry may be the league’s best point guard, and Naz Bohannon its most underrated big. The top 4--Quiz, Naz, Garrett Covington, and Michael Akuchie—have played together for a long time.
Why Not Here: Well, first of all, it is Youngstown State we’re talking about. Their job in the Horizon is to finish at the bottom. Also, after the first 4, the rotation is a bit sketchy, and heavily reliant on freshmen.
3. UIC Why Here: Transfers. Maurice Commander, Teyvion Kirk, and Zion Griffin are an instant rebuild. If he can find more consistency, Braelin Bridges will be one of the league’s best bigs. The bench is strong. Coach Yaklich is a great defensive coach, and he’s got the right players for his style of ball.
Why Not Here: Well, for one, I’m awfully tempted to put them second. But if they drop lower, it will be because all the new players just couldn’t mesh quickly enough in this odd season with its short non-conference schedule.
4. Cleveland State Why Here: Coach Gates. I am really high on all four of Nagy, Calhoun, Yaklich, and Gates. Coaching matters. This team plays tough “D” and can steal some wins. Last year’s injury-riddled season will pay off this year, as the team is deep with players who got experience due to those injuries in front of them. Everybody who matters is back, and they’ve got some nice incoming talent in juco D’Moi Hodge and the league’s best recruiting class.
Why Not Here: They’re counting on players with no D-1 experience to provide scoring punch, and they lack a clear “go-to” guy for when the going gets rough.
5. Detroit Why Here: Because I’m a Titan fan. And somebody has to finish 5th. From here down, it’s pretty much a “pick-em.” But I think (hope?) Taurean Thompson is going to be the real deal, and I think (hope?) Noah Waterman will get a waiver to play. If these two things happen, this is a very realistic pick. Antoine Davis and Chris Brandon are quality players, and the Titans have a more experienced bench than most of the other teams from here on down. I think this team has more upside than any of these last 8 teams, and that’s why they’re here.
Why Not Here: Because I’ve let my loyalties blind me. Thompson hasn’t done a thing in college ball since the 2017 season. It increasingly looks as if Waterman won't have a waiver approved by the time the season starts. Given those two issues, it's likely Titans will have to rely again on Willy Isiani for interior offense and defense, and that's just not his strength. The Titans are also counting on transfers Kuol and Fraser to stay healthy—something neither has done especially well—and transfer Matt Johnson to contribute a lot more than he did at St. Bonaventure. This team has a high upside, but also a very low potential downside. This could be another long, cold winter in the northwest corner of Detroit.
6. Oakland Why Here: Why not here? You got a problem with Oakland? Because there’s really nobody else. Because I have some faith in Greg Kampe. Because Zion Young will be granted a timely waiver. Because juco Jalen Moore is the real deal.
Why Not Here: Because Young doesn’t get a waiver. Because Jalen Moore isn’t the real deal. Then this team falls fast in my estimation. Along with Detroit, I consider this one of the riskier picks here, but like UD, a team with a relatively high upside compared to the competition.
7. Robert Morris Why Here: RMU’s NET rank last year would have placed them third in the Horizon. The core group returns, we're bullish on Bramah, and there’s some nice looking freshman talent.
Why Not Here: RMU is the most overhyped team in the Horizon this year. What the heck is everyone doing picking them in the upper half of the league? They played last year in the NEC—a clearly inferior league even to the diminished Horizon. The Colonials played three HL teams last year, and lost to all three by double digits. Overall, they were 0-4 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games, 2-6 against Quadrant 3. Heck, they were only 4-3 when playing Quadrant 4 teams on the road. Their non-conference RPI would have placed 7th in last year's Horizon. With leading scorer Josh Williams gone, this team isn't as good as that team.
AJ Bramah is good, but he was only a 2d Team All-NEC player last year. Yet I’m hearing people talk about him as a POY candidate? As President-Elect Biden would say, C’mon man. Dante Treacy is a nice point guard, but not as good as Darius Quisenberry, Te’Jon Lucas, Antoine Davis, Rashad Williams, Jaylon Minnett, P.J. Pipes, Jerrod Godfrey, or Bryce Langdon, and possibly not as good as Maurice Commander, or Chris Beaudion. Which puts him... 11th? The team’s bench consists of 5 freshmen and a sophomore who played in 7 games last year. To be honest, I feel like I'm succombing a bit to peer pressure. 7th? Too high.
8. Northern Kentucky Why Here: This is another gutsy pick—the HL poll had them third, no one else lower than 7th. In the crazy Horizon, NKU could finish as high as 4th or 5th. But basically, they’re trading on their reputation and past success. They’ve been winners. Their track record causes people to give the benefit of a doubt to freshmen Harge, Warrick, and others. But they have no size, and are asking people like Harge, Warrick, Adrian Nelson and Trevon Faulkner to do stuff they’ve not come close to doing in the past.
Why Not Here: To finish even this high, a lot of guys—that is to say, pretty much every player—will have to do things they’ve never done before. Adrian Nelson has been a good player off the bench, but the operative phrase may be “off the bench.” And he’s the only front court scholarship player with literally any D-1 experience. The guards are good, but rebounds don’t collect themselves, and we’re asking under-sized freshmen to guard Loudon Love, Naz Bohannon, Al Eichelberger, Daniel Oladapo, AJ Bramah, Braelen Briges, Dylan Carl, and Taurean Thompson. Eh, no. As with Bob Morris, I feel like I'm succombing a bit to peer pressure to rank them even this high. On the other hand, I like Horn as a coach, and they do have a very good track record. So maybe I do have them too low.
9. Green Bay Why Here: Not a single player on the team taller than 6-3 has played as much as a minute of D-1 ball. There’s a decent first 3 in Amari Davis, PJ Pipes, and Josh Jefferson, but after that... 6-8 Terrence Thompson is a nice recruit, and Blayton Williams was good in the juco ranks. Just too much of a makeshift squad.
Why Not Here: Amari Davis. If Thompson and and one or two of the jucos come through, they'll be OK. Still, I don't see them much higher than this, and they could go lower.
10. Milwaukee Why Here: After Te’Jon Lucas, a lot of question marks. If Wilbourn and Brown don’t step it up a notch, and Gholston doesn’t do a lot more than he did at Kent State in 2019, then we’ve basically got an 11-win team that lost its top scorer from a year ago.
Why Not Here: Lucas is a first-tier point. If sophs Wilbourn and Brown build on solid freshman seasons, the team could go places. AJ Gholston was the #34 juco in the country and should be a good one.
11. IUPUI Why Here: This is basically the same team that went 3-15 in conference a year ago, minus Grant Weatherford. That should be reason enough to put them at the bottom. It's safe to put them here--nobody will laugh at me when they finish 5th, because nobody else had them that high.
Why Not Here: I’m sorely tempted to put IUPUI higher, maybe quite a bit higher, and originally did have them higher. At first glance, why not? Second team All-Conference selection Marcus Burk, former “6th Man of the Year” and last year’s #6 scorer in the league, Jalen Minett; the league’s top rebounder and All-Defense selection Elyjah Goss... But no defense, and not much else.
12. Purdue Fort Wayne Why Here: Just not a good-looking team.
Why Not Here: But not too homely... Godfrey is a good guard, Dylan Carl is tall, Ra Kpedi and Bobby Planutis are transfers with size and strength. And Jalon Pipkins recently got his waiver approved to play this year.
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