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Post by Commissioner on Sept 15, 2021 21:06:58 GMT -5
Might as well start the previews. Going more or less in random order this year, as I feel like writing them. That puts Milwaukee up first. MilwaukeeMilwaukee fans spent almost 4 years wondering if it could really happen, and then it did—Coach Pat Baldwin’s eponymously named son, a consensus top 10 player in the Class of ’21, committed to the Panthers. The Horizon League has never seen anything like this—the closest was Ray McCallum signing with his father to play for the Titans over a decade ago. In the three major national scouting services—Rivals, Scout/247, and ESPN—McCallum was ranked, on average, as the #29 prospect in his class. Baldwin, by comparison, has an average rank of 6 from the three services. McCallum was among the best prospects in the country, but Baldwin among the highest elite. Here’s a little chart showing all Horizon players over the last 20 years who were signed and enrolled directly out of high school, and ranked in the ESPN top 100, Rivals top 150, or Scout/247Sports top 200. (Click on the chart to enlarge for easier reading). Boy did Rivals blow it on Theron Washington, eh? There are 17 players on the list. Dunham and Jones both became two-time all-Big East players. Matt Howard was a HL Player of the Year and led the Bulldogs to two Final Four appearances. Khyle Marshall, Jason Calliste, and Anton Grady were above average starters. Nored and Smith were solid starters, Hopkins less so. That still leaves six players, over a third of the list, that never did much of anything. I don't expect that to happen with Baldwin, who is much higher ranked, but it does show that projections are hardly a sure thing. One of the depressing things about this list is that Baldwin is the only player on it since Butler left the league after the 2012 season. That further emphasizes what a big deal his signing is for both Milwaukee and the Horizon. Most early prognosticators are picking Milwaukee to contend for the title, despite the Panthers' 5 consecutive losing seasons and 8th place finish a year ago. Are they expecting too much of Baldwin? Basketball, with its small rosters, is a sport where 1 player can turn a program around. But it ain’t automatic. For example, 6-10 Charles Bassey, ranked 6th, 9th, and 18th in the three scouting services, signed with Western Kentucky in 2018. Bassey was an excellent college player. He was CUSA Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in 2019, and Conference Player of the year in 2021 (injuries limited him to just 10 games in 2020), and eventually was a second round pick in this year's NBA draft. WKU was good with Bassey, winning 20 games or more all three years, but they never won the Conference tournament title, nor got an NCAA bid. And the Hilltoppers were a well-established program that had won 27 games the year before Bassey joined the team. Similarly, and closer to home, McCallum was a superb collegiate player before heading off to the NBA for a career that wasn’t long, but was a lot more than a cup of coffee. At UD, he was HL Freshman of the Year as a rookie, 1st team all-conference as a soph, and conference Player of the Year as a junior. But while the Titans made an NCAA and an NIT in his three years, they never won the league's regular season title—they finished 5th, 3rd, and 2nd in conference play—and exited both post-season tournaments in the first round. And Ray had some pretty good talent around him in the likes of Eli Holman, Chase Simon, Nick Minnerath, Jason Calliste, Juwan Howard, and Doug Anderson. So what to expect from Baldwin and Milwaukee? Baldwin is a considerably higher-ranked player than even McCallum, and the Horizon is a considerably less competitive league than it was a decade ago. Further, Milwaukee does have some serious talent around him, mainly double redshirt sophomore Deandre Gholston. Gholston averaged 16.8 points and 5.2 rebounds last year while shooting 37% from three. 6-4 Josh Thomas is another guard who can score (12.5 ppg last year), though he does most of his work getting to the basket. Yet a third big guard is UTEP transfer Jordon Lathon, a top 150 recruit in high school (he originally signed with Northwestern but was denied admission to the University). Lathon averaged just five points per game as a sophomore in 2020—he sat out last season—but scored in double figures as a freshman in 2019. It’s clear that Milwaukee has plenty of scoring threats besides Baldwin, and that should give the super-freshman some room to maneuver. The question is who will get the ball to Baldwin. Or maybe that’s not the question—Baldwin’s probably good enough to bring the ball up himself. Still, it’s good to have a point guard. If Te’Jon Lucas had returned for his extra year, one would be hard pressed not to pick Milwaukee for first. Instead, Lathon and sophomore Donovan Newby will battle for the role. The combo guard Lathon led UTEP in assists in 2020, while dramatically cutting his turnovers, so I expect him to take the job. Or maybe not—he’s had a number of minor injuries in his career, UTEP’s offense was inefficient with Lathon at the point, and Miners head coach Rodney Terry was visibly irritated with Lathon’s performance in the 2020 season. Newby, who started 5 games last year, is more of a true point guard, but he’s very suspect on defense. I’m guessing he’ll come off the bench for 15-20 minutes a game. 6-7 freshman Kyle Ross was a good recruiting catch for Coach Baldwin and could also see significant PT. So could Ypsilanti’s Markeith Browning, who is classified as a redshirt freshman after playing last year in the juco ranks. In the forecourt, Coach Baldwin has 6-7 Tafari Simms, who averaged almost 8 points per game last year off the bench. Then he’s got a couple of big transfers, 7-1 Moses Bol (a cousin of Manute Bol) from Central Florida, and 7-0 Samba Kane from San Francisco. Kane, who started his collegiate career at Illinois, averaged 2.7 points last year for the Dons after coming in from Indian Hills CC. Bol has not played since he was at Colby CC in the 2019 season. The two will probably share duties in the pivot. They won’t score much, but they won’t need to—their job will be to shut off and/or intimidate all those opposing guards who breeze past Newby and Lathon to get to the hoop. Vin Baker, a 6-9 forward who began at Boston College but, like Bol, hasn’t played in two years, may help out, but as a sophomore at BC he averaged just 1.3 points and 1 rebound, so keep your expectations reasonable. I’m not as down on Baldwin, Sr’s coaching ability as many HL observers, but in four years at Milwaukee he’s not had a winning season, and won just 40% of his overall games and 36% in conference, so the jury is, to say the least, still out. As for Jr.? I can see him putting up 29 points and 13 rebounds per game and leading this team to the Sweet 16. I can also envision him being good but not great—say 14 points and 7 rebounds—as Milwaukee finishes somewhere between 3rd and 6th. It’s tough to say—the Horizon League has never seen anything like this. Projected Starters: PG: Jordon Lathon, 6-4 RS Jr. (5.0 ppg, 3.1 apg with UTEP in 2020). SG: Josh Thomas, 6-4 RS Soph. (12.5 ppg) SF: Deandre Gholston, 6-5 2xRS Soph. (16.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 37.4% 3Pt) F: Patrick Baldwin, 6-9 Fr. C: Samba Kane, 7-0 RS Jr. (2.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg for San Francisco) Bench: PG: Donovan Newby, 6-1 RS Fr. (4.5 ppg, 1.8 apg, 39.4% 3Pt) SG: Kyle Ross, 6-7 Fr. SG: Markeith Browning, 6-4 RS Fr. (8.5 ppg at Coffeyville CC) F: Vin Baker, 6-9 2xRS Jr. (1.3 ppg w/ BC in 2019) PF: Tafari Simms, 6-7 RS Jr. (7.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg) C: Moses Bol, 7-1 Gr (5.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.2 bpg at Colby CC in 2019)
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 19, 2021 15:02:12 GMT -5
Youngstown StateIn 2021-22, Youngstown State will be looking to put together three consecutive winning seasons for the first time in nearly 37 years. Can the Penguins do it? Jarod Calhoun’s 6th place team loses Naz Bohannon and Darius Quisenberry, who were, by general acclamation, the team’s two best players. Bohannon, a second-team all-conference player on the strength of 16.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, moved to Clemson; Quisenberry, a first team all-conference selection in 2020 who was injured much of last year, moved on to A10 bottom-feeder Fordham. The early predictions are not good for YSU. But don’t count the Penguins out. First, I’m not sure how much the Penguins will miss Quisenberry. Quiz played in just 15 of the team’s 27 games last year. It’s true that YSU went 11-4 when Quisenberry played, and just 4-8 when he did not. But when he played, 6 of those wins (and also one loss) were over the 4 worst teams in the league; a 7th (and another loss) against 7th place IUPUI; and three came in non-conference play, against 4-14 Binghamton and over two non-D1 opponents. The only meaningful win in the bunch was at Northern Kentucky, and even that came during a stretch when the Norse were losing 4 of 5 and 8 of 11. Conversely, in the 12 games Quisenberry missed, all 8 loses came to teams that finished in the top half of the Horizon, including 6 to the league’s top 3 teams—Cleveland State, Wright State, and Detroit—and two to 5th place Oakland. When playing without Quisenberry against the bottom half the league and bad non-conference opponents—i.e., more like the schedule they played with Quisenberry—the Penguins were 4-0. So maybe the Penguins winning with Quisenberry had less to do with Quiz and more to do with the schedule. In fact, Quisenberry’s numbers were down across the board from 2020—fewer points, fewer rebounds, fewer assists, more turnovers, and much lower shooting percentages, including a dismal 25 percent from three (down from mediocre 32% and 31% in his 1st two seasons). This isn’t to say Quisenberry isn’t good. He was a very good player in the 2019 and 2020 seasons. But Calhoun has added a couple of transfer guards who can, I think, cover for the loss. Chris Shelton comes in from Hampton, where he averaged 9.8 points per game and a nation leading 48.6 percent from three-point land. No, he’s not the all-around player Quisenberry is, not even close, but from behind the arc he’s a big upgrade, and that's where the Penguins need an upgrade--they were 11th in the league in three-point shooting. Also joining the ‘Guins is Dwayne Cohill, a transfer from Dayton. Cohill was a 4-star recruit in high school, with offers from the likes of Ohio State and West Virginia. Cohill spent his first two seasons as a role player for the Flyers (63 games, averaging over 14 minutes a game). Last year he was expected to step up to a major role for Dayton, but an ACL tear caused him to miss the year. That leaves Cohill as a big “if,” but he certainly has upside that would make him a very suitable replacement for Quiz. Meanwhile, second year freshman Shemar Rathan-Mayes looks more than capable of handling the point after averaging 3.5 assists, with a better than two-to-one assist/turnover ratio last year. 6-5 Garrett Covington will start as a third guard. A three-time All-Defensive selection, Covington is also a solid contributor on offense, averaging 12.5 points last season. He’s a good enough three-point shooter (34%), and an excellent slasher and finisher at the rim, shooting 59 percent from two last season. A couple of second year freshmen, Myles Hunter and Alex Vargo, both started several games last year and played significant minutes. They’ll provide depth at guard and Hunter, in particular, could step into the lineup if Cohill doesn’t seize the opportunity. Worth watching is grad transfer Tevin Olison, a two-time NAIA All-American at Cumberlands, who was 6th in the NAIA last year in scoring and 8th in three-pointers made. It’s a big jump from the NAIA to mid-major D-1 hoops, but it has been done. Bohannon will be missed more than Quisenberry, but the Penguins aren’t completely disarmed in the forecourt. 6-8 Michael Akuchie chose to return for the bonus year after averaging 9.9 points and 8.3 rebounds last season. Akuchie’s season included a 23 point, 13 rebound against Fort Wayne, and a 24 rebound game against Robert Morris. He’s also an excellent defensive player. Akuchie will get support from 6-8, 275 lb. senior Jamir Thomas. Thomas averaged a little over 3 points and 3 rebounds in a little under 10 minutes per game in 2020, but missed last season due to injury. Adam Dunn, a 6-8, second-year freshman forward from Quincy, Michigan, looked good in spots and started a couple games last year. The Penguins really need at least one of Thomas or Dunn to take on a major role this year, as the only other bigs on the roster are a pair of true freshman, 6-9 Jacori Owens and 6-7 Josh Irwin. YSU has some big guards, and we should expect to see lots of 3 and even 4-guard lineups. I don’t see YSU contending, but I think they’ll be competitive and finish somewhere between 6th and 10th. With a favorable non-conference schedule, including a bunch of winnable games at home, the possibility of a third straight winning season is there. For your enjoyment, below the roster review, I’ve put a couple of tables—one showing the best 3 year conference record for each team in MCC/Horizon history, and the next showing the longest streaks without an NCAA appearance for current HL teams. Probable StartersPG: Shemar Rathan-Mayes, 5-11 RS Fr. (10.4 ppg, 3.5 apg, 33.9% 3Pt) SG: Dwayne Cohill, 6-2 RS Jr. (2.6 ppg at Dayton in 2020) G/SF: Garrett Covington, 6-5 Gr. (12.5 ppg,, 4.6 rpg, 34.1% 3Pt) F: Michael Akuchie, 6-8 Gr. (9.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg) PF: Jamir Thomas, 6-7 RS Sr. (3.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg in 2020) BenchSG: Chris Shelton, 6-4 RS Soph. (9.8 ppg, 48.6% 3Pt at Hampton) SG: Myles Hunter, 6-5 RS Fr. (6.2 ppg, 32.8% 3Pt) SG: Alex Vargo, 6-4 RS Fr. (4.8 ppg, 30.2% 3Pt) SG: Tevin Olison, 6-4 Gr. (23.0 ppg, 41.5% 3Pt at NAIA Cumberlands) G: Daniel Ogoro, 6-5 RS Fr. (2.3 ppg) F: William Dunn, 6-8 RS Fr. (3.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg) F: Josh Irwin, 6-7 Fr. F: Jacori Owens, 6-9 Fr. Best Three Year Win Percentage for each MCC/Horizon Team, Regular Season Conference PlaySchool | Years | Conf. W-L | W/L Pct. | Butler | 2008-10 | 49-5 | .907 | Xavier | 1993-95 | 34-4 | .895 | Milwaukee | 2003-05 | 40-8 | .833 | Loyola | 1983-85 | 35-7 | .833 | Valparaiso | 2015-17 | 43-9 | .827 | Detroit | 1997-99 | 35-9 | .795 | Green Bay | 1995-97 | 37-10 | .787 | Wright State | 2019-21 | 44-12 | .786 | Northern Kentucky | 2018-20 | 41-13 | .759 | Oakland | 2015-17 | 38-14 | .731 | Oral Roberts | 1982-84 | 29-11 | .725 | UIC | 2002-04 2003-05 | 32-16 | .667 | Cleveland State | 2009-11 2010-12 | 35-19 | .648 | St. Louis | 1989-91 | 25-15 | .625 | Dayton | 1990-92 | 23-15 | .605 | Oklahoma City | 1980-82 | 16-12 | .571 | *Marquette | 1990-91 | 16-12 | .571 | La Salle | 1993-95 | 20-18 | .526 | Northern Illinois | 1995-97 | 23-24 | .489 | Youngstown State | 2019-21 | 27-29 | .482 | IUPUI | 2019-21 | 31-52 | .373 | +Duquesne | 1993 | 5-9 | .357 | +Purdue-Fort Wayne | 2021 | 6-14 | .300 | +Robert Morris | 2021 | 3-12 | .200 |
*Only in league 2 years +Only in league 1 year Horizon League: Most Years Since Last NCAA Bid (D-1 only)School | Last Bid | Years Since Last Bid | Youngstown State | Never | 40 | Purdue-Fort Wayne | Never | 19 | IUPUI | 2003 (Summit) | 18 | UIC | 2004 | 17 | Oakland | 2011 (Summit) | 10 | Detroit | 2012 | 9 | Milwaukee | 2014 | 7 | Robert Morris | 2015 (NEC) | 6 | Green Bay | 2016 | 5 | Wright State | 2018 | 3 | Northern Kentucky | *2020 | 1 | Cleveland State | 2021 | 0 |
*Won conference tournament--no NCAA tournament held or bids officially issued.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 21, 2021 20:00:11 GMT -5
Wright StateScott Nagy has been at WSU for 5 seasons. Here are the best 5 year conference winning percentages for each Horizon team since the “big merge” with the Mid-Continent before the 1995 season: Each School's Best 5 Year Horizon Conference Regular Season W/L Record since 1995School | Years | W-L | W-L Pct. | Coach | Butler | 2007-11 | 75-13 | .852 | Todd Lickliter ('07); Brad Stevens ('08-11) | Milwaukee | 2002-06 | 63-17 | .788 | Bruce Pearl ('02-'05); Rob Jeter ('06) | Valparaiso | 2013-17 2012-16 | 65-19 | .774 | Bryce Drew ('13-'16); Matt Lotich ('17) Bryce Drew | Wright State | 2017-21 | 69-23 | .750 | Scott Nagy | Detroit | 1997-01 1998-02 | 53-19 | .736 | Perry Watson | Northern Kentucky | 2017-21 | 64-26 | .711 | John Brannen ('17-'19); Darrin Horn ('20-'21) | Green Bay | 1995-99 | 53-22 | .707 | Dick Bennett ('95); Mike Heideman ('96-'99) | Oakland | 2015-19 | 59-29 | .670 | Greg Kampe | Cleveland State | 2008-12 | 59-31 | .656 | Gary Waters | UIC | 2002-06 | 48-32 | .600 | Jimmy Collins | Loyola | 2003-07 | 39-41 | .488 | Larry Farmer ('03-'04); Jim Whitesell ('05-'07) | Youngstown State | 2017-21... | 38-54 | .413 | Jerry Slocum ('17); Jerrod Calhoun ('18-'21) |
Teams With Less Than 5 Years Post-MergerXavier (1 yr.) | 1995 | 14-0 | 1.000 | Skip Prosser | La Salle (1 yr.) | 1995 | 7-7 | .500 | Speedy Morris | No. Illinois (3 yrs.) | 1995-97 | 23-24 | .489 | Brian Hammel | IUPUI (4 yrs.) | 2018-21... | 26-44 | .371 | Jason Gardner ('18-'19); Byron Rimm ('20-'21) | Purdue- Ft. Wayne (1 yr.) | 2021 | 6-14 | .300 | Jon Coffman | Robert Morris (1 yr.) | 2021 | 3-12 | .200 ...... | Andy Toole |
Wright State raised more than a few eyebrows when it fired Billy Donlon after the 2016 season, in which the Raiders had won 22 games, their third 20-win season in four years. But under Scott Nagy, the Raiders have taken the next step, battling with Northern Kentucky to be the dominant regular season team in the Horizon. They’ve won 75% of their conference games since his arrival 5 years ago, and the last three regular season titles. The next step is to start winning the conference tournament. The Raiders won it in 2018, after finishing 2d in the regular season, but have been upset in each of the last three conference tournaments, including a collapse in last year’s semi-finals, when Milwaukee rallied from 24 points down with 6:30 left to knock the Raiders out of post-season play. Despite the loss of Conference Player of the Year Loudon Love, WSU is a, if not the, conference favorite in most of the press, and definitely has the talent not only to reach but to win a game or games in the NCAA tournament. This team looks a lot like last year’s, with the same strengths and weaknesses. That’s not a bad place to be—not only did they tie for the regular season title, but the Raiders were dominant when they won, and three of their six losses on the year were by two points. Four starters return: point guard Trey Calvin; shooting guard Tanner Holden, a first team all-conference selection last year who has a pretty good claim to being the league’s best all-around player; three-point marksman Tim Finke; and Love’s successor, forward Grant Basile, who was a second-team all-conference selection last year. The only big question is who will fill the 5th spot in the lineup. Nagy has several to choose from: 6-3 sophomore Alex Huibregtse, who averaged about 15 minutes a game last year as a true freshman, but was erratic at best; Cornell transfer Riley Voss, a 6-6 forward who reportedly has a good floor game but whose stat line in the Ivy was not very impressive; Milwaukee transfer CJ Wilbourn; 6-6 Andrew Welage, who saw limited action last year as a true freshman; and 6-8 freshman AJ Braun, the team’s top recruit. My guess is Voss, but we’ll see. The Raiders’ strengths are experience, a tenacious defense, and an extremely effective offense. Indeed, as good as Loudon Love was, the offense was even more efficient last year when he was not on the court. Basile is getting overlooked in pre-season all-conference projections. He brings Love’s inside game plus the ability to stretch defenses—he finished on 65% of his two-point attempts last year, but also hit 48% from three. Basile got better as the year went on, closing with a 35 point, 14 rebound performance in the conference tournament loss to Milwaukee. Holden, meanwhile, is just a terrific stat stuffer who can play 1, 2, or 3. Finke is a sizzling three-point shooter—41 percent last season—who rebounds and plays tough defense. The weaknesses, such as they are, are depth, and point guard play. That latter is not to bash Trey Calvin—he averaged 9.7 points on the season, and had a very solid 2.3/1 ratio of assists to turnovers in conference play. So point play is what we might call a “relative” weakness. Other teams should be so lucky. But Calvin is a bit unsteady, and a weak three-point shooter (32% last year, 29% career). And the only other point guard on the roster is 5-11 freshman Keaton Norris, younger brother of former Oakland Grizzly Braden Norris. Keaton, however, had no other D-1 offers when he committed to WSU in the early signing period. As for depth, the Raiders basically went 6 deep last year. The depth looks a bit better this year thanks to the arrivals of Voss and Wilbourn, but still a bit thin. I do think both Welage and Braun can be contributors, but I’m not high on Huibregtse, who didn’t impress me last year. Is there another weakness? Well, Wright State has not won a lot of big games under Nagy. The Raiders were 5th in the nation last year in average scoring margin—they blew people out when they won—but they were just 1-4 in games decided by two possessions or less (0-3 in games decided by one possession). Their collapse against Milwaukee in the conference tournament was one for the record books. They also lost in their conference tournament game in 2020, after winning the regular season, and lost their first round NCAA and NIT games in 2018 and 2019. In other words, they’ve struggled in close games and big games. Still, WSU looks awfully nice at a glance, with Basile, Holden, Finke and Calvin. They’ll be good, and they may be the HL team most likely to emerge with a shot at the Sweet 16. I suspect, though, that a second or even third place finish may be more likely than first. I’m not putting money on that. Wright State Probable Starters:PG: Trey Calvin, 6-0 RS Soph. (9.7 ppg, 3.5 apg) SG: Tanner Holden, 6-6 RS Soph. (15.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.7 apg,) SF: Tim Finke, 6-6 RS 2xRS Soph. (10.9 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 43.7% 3PFG) SF: Riley Voss, 6-6 RS Sr. (3.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg for Cornell in 2020) PF: Grant Basile, 6-9 2xRS Jr. (15.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 60.6% FG) Bench:PG: Keeton Norris, 5-11 Fr. SG: Alex Huibregtse, 6-3 RS Fr. (2.6 ppg, 1.4 rpg) SF: Andrew Welage, 6-6 RS Fr. (1.6 ppg, 1.5 rpg) F: C.J. Wilbourn, 6-7 RS Jr. (5.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg for Milwaukee) F: James Manns, 6-7 2xRS Jr. (3.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg) F: Brandon Noel, 6-8 RS Fr. C: AJ Braun, 6-9 Fr.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 24, 2021 8:11:29 GMT -5
Cleveland StateI opened the Wright State preview with a chart that showed each team's best 5 year conference W-L record since the 'big acquisition' by the Horizon (then called the MCC--Midwest Collegiate Conference) of the top portion of the Summit (then also called the MCC--Mid-Continent Conference) before the 1995 season. What that chart didn't make explicit is that WSU Coach Scott Nagy's conference record is the third best for a single coach over a 5 year period in that time, behind only Butler's Brad Stevens (73-17 from 2008-12) and Valpo's Bryce Drew (65-19 from 2012-16). Of course, coaches who compile such records over a 5 year period tend not to stay in the HL--they get snatched up by a bigger program. (In fact, Drew left Valpo for the SEC after the last year of that run; Stevens stayed one more year at Butler (in the Atlantic 10) before heading to the NBA). Nagy, obviously, is back for year six. Nagy seems like a long-termer. He's 55 years old. It will be interesting to see if he stays at WSU or moves on in the next year or two. After that, he'll be getting old for a first P6 job. But this is supposed to be the preview on Cleveland State. It's just that Dennis Gates still has me thinking about head coaches. Coaches, of course, are distributed along a bell curve. Most of them are clustered around the middle—some a bit better than average, some a bit worse, but basically, about average. Think Ray McCallum (who I would put to the right—the good side--of the bell curve’s apex, but generally in that big hump). Sometimes you get someone distributed pretty far out along the left end of the curve—Willie McCarter—and that's bad. Very rarely you hit the home run, or at least the triple, and get someone far along the right end of the curve—Dick Vitale, perhaps. When a mid-major hires a known quantity, it is almost by definition drawing from the big center hump of the bell curve. After all, it’s not going to hire someone whose track record as a head coach seems to put him on the far left end of the curve, and it can’t afford someone with a track record placing him on the far right end of the distribution. I’d put Mike Davis—a known quantity--definitely to the right of the center line on the bell curve, a good ways along the downward slope, but still within that big hump. Bacari Alexander—an unknown quantity as a head coach when hired—unfortunately ended up on the far left end of the curve. He'll probably never get a chance (and seems to have decided he's not interested in a chance) to prove that that was a fluke. Cleveland State went the unknown route two years ago, and appears to have gotten the big extra base hit with Dennis Gates. Gates took a squad that many thought wouldn’t win a game in 2020 and went 11-21, but more than that, the team was scrappy and competitive. Last year CSU improved by 10.5 games, to 19-8, tied for the regular season title, and won the conference tournament. Gates became only the second HL coach to be named conference Coach of the Year in each of his first two seasons in the league (the other was Bruce Pearl with Milwaukee in 2002 & 2003). The MCC/Horizon has now played 42 seasons of college ball, and 28 men have won the Coach of the Year Award. Ten of those won it in their first season in the conference, and another nine in their second (without double counting Gates and Pearl). Three more won it for the first time in their 3rd season. Only two first-time winners were past their 5th season. This surprised me when I first looked at the list. But when I thought about it a bit, it made sense, for several reasons. First, voters tend to like new coaches—they don’t seem to want to give the award every year to a Coach K or Izzo or Boeheim or Thompson--the Hall of Fame coaches who just win every year. Second, if you’re a first or second-year coach, there’s a good chance the team wasn’t very good before you took over (which is why the coaching job was open), and voters love a “turnaround” story. If your predecessor wasn't fired for a bad record, and you're at a mid-major like the Horizon, then it's likely that your predecessor did really well and got hired up to a high major, and you inherited a contender. Third, if you’re successful in the first 3 years, there’s a passable shot you win it—if you’re not successful within three years, you may not have job much longer. And finally, good coaches are just good coaches, usually right out of the box. Here are coaches who won the MCC/HL COY in their first or second season in the league: First Season:Dennis Gates, CSU - (2020) (also won in 2021) Bryce Drew, Valparaiso – (2012) Paul Biancardi, WSU – (2004) (a weird choice—see below) Bruce Pearl, Milwaukee – (2002) (also won in 2003) Thad Matta, Butler – (2001) Jimmy Collins, UIC – (1997) Mike Heideman, Green Bay – (1996) Skip Prosser, Xavier – (1995) Pete Gillen, Xavier – (1986) Ken Hayes, Oral Roberts – (1980) Second Season:Scott Nagy, WSU (2018) John Brannen, NKU (2017) Brad Stevens, Butler (2009) Brad Brownell, WSU (2008) Gary Waters, CSU (2008) Barry Collier, Butler (1991) Jim Crews, Evansville (1987) Dick Acres, Oral Roberts (1984) Bob Staak, Xavier (1981) Note that 14 of these 19 coaches were not only in their first or second year in the HL, but in their first job as a head coach. The exceptions are Prosser, Hayes, Nagy, Brownell, and Waters. Prosser was in his second job. His first had been a 1 year stint—the 1994 season at Loyola of Maryland, where he took the Grayhounds to their first NCAA bid ever, going from 2-25 the year before his arrival to 17-13 and a conference tournament title. (Despite the impressive nature of that accomplishment, he did not win NEC COY). Hayes was in his 12th season overall as a head coach, but his first at Oral Roberts. In his two prior jobs, he had won MVC COY in his first season (1969) at Tulsa. He eventually left Tulsa for New Mexico State, and won it again in his second season (1977) with the Aggies. Brownell had coached 4 years at UNC-Wilmington before taking the Wright State job. At Wilmington, he was CAA COY in his first season with the Seahawks. Gary Waters started at Kent State, a traditional bottom feeder in the MAC, and turned it into a conference power. He won his first COY awards in his 3rd and 4th years at Kent. Only Nagy had a long coaching career before winning his first COY award—he never won it in 8 years at South Dakota State, despite averaging over 23 wins a season with 3 NCAA appearances in his last 6 years there. As side notes, it’s hard to figure out why Brad Stevens didn’t win it his first season, 2008, when all he did was guide Butler to a 30-4 record, win the conference regular season and tournament titles, and finish with a #11 national ranking. But Brownell and Waters, whose teams tied for second place, shared the award. An even stranger winner was Wright State’s Paul Biancardi in 2004. The Raiders went just 14-14 overall, and tied for 4th in the conference. They had a solid but unspectacular improvement from the prior year’s 10-18, but it’s not like they were a traditional conference dog—under Ed Schilling they’d gone 18-11 and 17-11 in 2001 and 2002. Biancardi was selected over UIC’s Jimmy Collins, who guided the Flames to a 24-8 overall mark and an NCAA bid; Bruce Pearl, whose Milwaukee Panthers won the regular season title; and Tod Kowalczyk, whose Green Bay Phoenix improved by 8 games, to 17-11, in Kowalczyk’s second season, for a third place finish and the school’s first winning record in 5 years. Only two coaches won the award for the first time after their 5th season—Milwaukee’s Rob Jeter in 2011, his 6th season at the helm; and Butler’s Joe Sexson in 1984, his 7th season in Indy. Sexson’s pick is another idiosyncratic one—the Bulldogs were just 13-15 overall and finished 4th in league play. But mainly because Butler had been picked to finish last (though with a team recruited by Sexson) but finished 4th, he got the nod, sharing the award with second-year Oral Roberts coach Dick Acres, whose team won the regular season and tournament titles. Meanwhile, what is the longest anyone has coached in the league without ever being named MCC/Horizon COY? Here are the ten longest such careers: Jerry Slocum, Youngstown State – 12 seasons (‘06-‘17) Rich Grawer, St. Louis – 9 (‘83-‘91) Tod Kowalczyk, Green Bay – 8 (’03-’10) Greg Kampe, Oakland – 8 (’14-’21) Rollie Massimino, Cleveland State – 7 (’97-’03) Ed Schilling, Wright State – 6 (98-03) Steve McLain, UIC – 5 (’16-’20) Linc Darner, Green Bay – 5 (’16-’20) Howard Moore, UIC – 5 (’11-’15) Ricky Byrdsong, Detroit – 5 (‘89-‘93) Bigger picture: Massimino won his first COY at his first head coaching job, Villanova in 1977. That was his 4th year at the helm but his first in a conference, the ECBL (forerunner of today’s Atlantic 10). Steve McLain was in his second head coaching job at UIC. At Wyoming, he’d won the MWC COY in 2002, his 4th season. All the others on this list were in their first head coaching position. Note that Kampe won the GLIAC COY In his 4th year at OU; he was Summit COY in his first season in D-1 play in 2000. Of the 10 on this list, only two (so far, anyway), have ever gotten another shot at a head coaching job. Byrdsong left Detroit for Northwestern; Kowalczyk left Green Bay for Toledo, where he finally won a COY award last year, his 11th at Toledo and 19th overall. That's just really rare. For those wondering, Perry Watson won his first COY in 1998, his 5th with the Titans. Our only other winner, Don Sicko, won it in 1986, his 4th. Ironically, Sicko didn't win it with his best team (1985), and the bottom fell out on his term the year after he did win it. Anyway, it's well past time to move on to CSU. Gates did another great job this past off-season. First, he kept his defending league champs together, no small feat in today's environment. There’s no obvious reason that the players and coach who won the conference last year can’t repeat. The Vikes returning contingent is led by first team All-Conference selection and conference tournament MVP Torey Patton, Horizon Defensive Player of the Year Tre Gomillion, inconsistent but explosive D’Moi Hodge, a solid point guard in Craig Beaudion, and a pair of good Michigan kids in the front line, Al Eichelberger (a third-team All-Conference selection in 2020) and Spider Johnson, who joined Gomillion on last year’s All-Defensive team. Chris Greene, a 6-8 forward, averaged just 7 minutes a game last season, but he can score with the best and could play a bigger role if needed. Yalel Hill was a disappointment last year but shouldn’t be written off. Then there’s 7-2 Mabor Majok looming in the background. Majok’s contribution last year as a true freshman was minimal (0.8 points, 0.8 rebounds in 12 games), but he was rated a three-star recruit by some coming out of high school, and he is big. He's very, very big. Also very big is Anderson Mirambeaux, a 6-8, 300 lb. juco transfer who could contribute right away. No one on CSU seems to have obviously overperformed last season. Patton easily his best year, but it’s not like he came from nowhere (he averaged 11.7 points and 6.1 rebounds in 2020) and you don’t look at him and think “fluke.” If anything, I'd expect more improvement this year. Eichelberger played through injuries most of last year, and is likely to contribute more rather than less this year. Beaudion’s shooting percentages were up and his floor game perhaps stronger, but his top-line numbers—points, rebounds, and assists—were all down from 2020. Hodge was solid but not as good as many had predicted for one of the very top juco recruits in the country. The only player of any significance who chose not to return is freshman guard Alec Oglesby, who was 7th on the team in minutes played. Oglesby’s loss could hurt, because he was a 43% three-point shooter, and the lack of three point shooting—the Vikings were 10th in the league last year—was perhaps the team’s biggest weakness. But Gates added a couple of transfers who could make that up—Nathanael Jack hit 37% last year in limited action at Florida State, and Broc Finstuen averaged 7.5 points and made 34% of his threes in two years at Pacific. The only real warning signs would be teams that improve as much as CSU did last year—a 10.5 game improvement—sometimes tend to slip back toward the mean the following year. CSU also had a low points scored/points against ratio compared to its record—i.e., they won a lot of close games. We like to think of teams playing tough in the clutch, and there's probably some truth to that, but in really close games luck becomes a very important factor--did the ref miss the obvious charging call? Did the the ball rattle in or rattle out on the key shot? In fact, according to KenPom, the Vikings were the luckiest team in the nation last year, so there's a definite possibility of fall off. But such minor warning signs aside, it’s hard not to like this team. They’ve got a star (Patton), they’ve got depth, they’ve got size. They are a tough, scrappy team that doesn’t quit, they play good team defense, and they’re one of the oldest teams in college hoops, which usually is a benefit (something I looked at more in this preview from a few years ago). Oh, and they’re well-coached. It seems almost an injustice not to pick this team to finish first. Probable StartersPG: Craig Beaudion, 6-3 RS Sr. (9.3 ppg, 3.3 apg, 40.3% 3PtFG) SG/SF: Torey Patton, 6-5 RS Sr. (14.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.7 apg, 28.8% 3PtFG) SG/SF: Trey Gomillion, 6-4 RS Jr. (10.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.4 apg, 15% 3PtFG) SG/SF: D’Moi Hodge, 6-4 RS Jr. (10.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 29.9% 3PtFG) C: Deonte “Spider” Johnson, 6-9 RS Jr. (5.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 bpg) BenchG: Yahel Hill, 6-0 RS Jr. (3.1 ppg, 1.0 apg, 34.2% 3Pt FG) G: Jayson Woodrich, 6-7 RS Fr. (4.5 ppg) G: Franklyn Penn, 6-3 RS Sr. (5.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg in 2020; injured 2021) G: Broc Finstuen, 6-4 RS Sr. (11.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 33.3% 3PtFG w/ Pacific) G/SF: Nathanael Jack, 6-5 RS Sr. (3.6 ppg, 37.0% 3PtFG) PF: Al Eichelberger, 6-8 2xRS Sr. (6.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) PF: Anderson Mirambeaux, 6-8 RS Soph. (13.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg at Trinity Valley CC). F: Chris Greene, 6-8 RS Jr. (4.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg) C: Mabor Majok, 7-2 RS Fr (0.8 ppg, 0.8 rpg)
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Post by titantarheel on Sept 24, 2021 10:14:49 GMT -5
Commish - there's not enough chatter on this thread, but of course these are all EXCELLENT and great primers to get us all pumped (and educated) for the upcoming season. Thank you for the time to put in the research, and the time taken to put it all in fine prose.
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 24, 2021 11:18:25 GMT -5
Commish - there's not enough chatter on this thread, but of course these are all EXCELLENT and great primers to get us all pumped (and educated) for the upcoming season. Thank you for the time to put in the research, and the time taken to put it all in fine prose. I second that emotion.
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 26, 2021 4:44:01 GMT -5
The HL is very hard to pick this year because so many teams have made so many changes. A lot of these unknowns could break in favor of new contenders and against the usual suspects who have always contended. The influx of many bigs into the league on so many different teams could change the competitive balance. In recent years, the few teams with strong post players; e.g., McDonald at NKU, Love at WSU, Brechting/Hill-Mais at OU, could dominate the other 7 teams in the paint. This will no longer be the case in 2021-22. Rosters are more balanced. The disparity between the haves and have-not's has narrowed; and, in some cases no longer exists. Therefore, the weaknesses on the rosters of the perennial contenders can no longer be papered over by uneven physical mismatches at the post or on the wings.
Re: Cleveland State. I understand the inclination to make this team the favorite because it returns all key players from its conference championship year. I discount last year a bit because of the unbalanced league schedule. The Vikings played PFW 5 times. They won the 5th game at home because Al Eichelberger hit a banked 23+ foot desperation 3-point shot to send it to another OT. The season was that close to being a huge disappointment. They are carrying a 19-player roster. If the breaks in close games don't go the Vikes' way, will this long roster become a liability when few players get enough playing time? Or will Gates simply decide to turn every game into a FT contest by hacking every opponent because he has 2 other players to replace the disqualified?
Re: Wright State. Will the Raiders be better in close games without Love? He fouled out of the Milwaukee disaster and he was on the floor at the end of the home loss to Cleveland State. Basile showed a lot of energy and much improved talent last season. Their four returning starters are solid. This could be the first year that Nagy will play a team without 2 bigs who can play at the same time. That could be a good thing, though. IMO, Calvin needs to step up and improve his consistency.
Re: Milwaukee. It's all Baldwin, who would be a top 5 NBA pick if he were eligible. Can he and Gholston co-exist? I agree with Commissioner's assessment of the PG issue there. By the 6th or 7th game, will the league figure out a way to minimize Baldwin's impact like they did with Antoine Davis? The key to beating the Panthers may be to keep Gholston dissatisfied with his lack of touches and shots.
Re: Youngstown State. The loss of Bohannon to Clemson is more significant than the loss of Quisenberry. He made everyone around him better by creating space for their other bigs to rebound. He also was a good passer. His intensity lifted the 'Quins. On paper, none of the new players stands out as Bohannon's replacement. Can Akuchie contribute as much now that defenses can shift their focus away from Bohannon and onto him? Can Thomas step up and provide an improved inside presence for as many minutes as Bohannon gave them last year?
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 27, 2021 23:20:27 GMT -5
Northern KentuckyFor old-timers like the Commish, it seems that everybody is new to Division 1. In fact, over 150 schools have joined D-1 in the last 50 years (with about 20 teams leaving D-1 over the same period). Here are the schools that have earned at least 3 NCAA bids in their first 10 years in D-1, since 1972: School | 1st Year | NCAA Bids, 1st 10 yrs | Alabama Birmingham | 1980 | 7 | South Dakota State | 2009 | 5 | Missouri State | 1983 | 5 | North Carolina Central | 2014 | 4 | College of Charleston | 1992 | 4 | Alcorn State | 1978 | 4 | Old Dominion | 1977 | 4 | *Northern Kentucky | 2013 | 3 | Florida Gulf Coast | 2011 | 3 | Belmont | 2000 | 3 | Chattanooga | 1978 | 3 | Southern | 1978 | 3 | James Madison | 1977 | 3 | Virginia Commonwealth | 1974 | 3 |
*Includes 2020 (Won Conference Tournament; no NCAA tournament held) Northern Kentucky will try to move into “fourth place” on this list with another bid in this, it’s 10th season in D-1. And why not? From 2017-2020 the Norse averaged 24 wins a season, winning two regular season conference championships and qualifying for three NCAA and one NIT tournaments, before dropping to 14-11 in last year’s COVID shortened season. The preseason buzz in the HL this year seems focused on last year’s regular season co-champions, Wright State and Cleveland State, and Milwaukee, led by the Amazing Pat Baldwin. Detroit is also getting mention, with high-scoring Antoine Davis and a lot of buzz around the Titans’ strong finish last year. But don’t count the Norse out. NKU closed with a rush as well. After a 5-8 start, the Norse finished 9-3, including the last second victory over the Titans in the Horizon tournament. The Norse return their top 6 players in scoring and minutes played, and add to that mix Titan transfer Chris Brandon. This is a sneaky good team. NKU will play true three-guard line-up of Trevon Faulkner, Marques Warrick, and Bryson Langdon. Faulkner was a second team All-Conference selection last year, averaging 16.7 points and 5.7 rebounds. Faulkner shoots too many threes—he hit 27.5% last year after making 28.9% in 2020—but he’s very good at getting to the basket. Warrick was the league’s Freshman of the Year, and a third-team All-Conference selection, averaging a very efficient 15.8 points—he shot 53% from two; 36% from three, and 82% from the line. Langdon is a solid distributor (4 apg) who can score (10.7 points), though like Faulkner, he’s a questionable three point shooter. Faulkner, at 6-3, is the biggest of the three guards, and Langdon, at 5-9, one of the league’s shortest starters. But the Norse have a pair of rebounding machines in forwards Brandon and Adrian Nelson. Nelson, you’ll recall, originally signed with the Titans before de-committing when Bacari Alexander was fired—Brandon and Nelson could easily have been the Titans’ starting forwards this year. Nelson is the league’s top returning rebounder—he was 19th nationally last year. In addition, he does lots of little things well, and while he doesn’t score a ton (8.4 ppg), he is pretty much unstoppable when he gets the ball near the basket, finishing 4th in the country last year in field goal percentage. (I distinctly recall telling various Titan fans back in 2018, “you’ll be surprised by how good Nelson is.”) Brandon, of course, is a similar player, a tough rebounder and defender who shot an even more impressive 74% from the floor, though without enough attempts to qualify for the national leaders (with enough attempts, 74% would have led the nation). Coming over from Detroit, he’ll be comfortable with NKU’s frequent use of zone defense. Trey Robinson, who averaged 5.3 points last year as a freshman, gives the Norse a big (6-6), slashing guard off the bench. 6-9 David Bohm averaged 7.2 points last year as a freshman and and has star potential, though he’ll be coming off the bench this year. 6-7 Seybian Sims, a transfer from North Dakota, provides added depth up-front and should help remedy the Norse’s lack of perimeter shooting. Coach Darrin Horn signed a couple of good looking freshmen, Sam Vinson and Isaiah Mason, both of whom had a lot of mid-major interest and both of whom can score. The two will likely battle it out for the final spot in the rotation. Finally, while the Norse will not be a tall team on the court, they will be impressive in airports, thanks to 7-1 walk-on Noah Hupman, 6-10 walk-on David Wassler, and 7-0 freshman Imanuel Zorgvol of Suriname, whose picture is in Webster’s next to the word “project.” Last year the Norse lacked a rim protector in the paint. At 6-8, Brandon isn’t your classic guy in that role, but he’s a good shot blocker and will certainly make a difference—remember, he was an All-Defense selection in 2020. The Norse were dead last in the conference in three point shooting, and that will again be a problem unless Sims, Vinson or Mason seizes the role, or Faulkner or Bryson show dramatic improvement. But this is a really good team—well coached, deep, very efficient on offense, with tremendous scoring power in the back court and, in Brandon and Nelson, a pair of awesome rebounders who can score near the hoop. While everyone is focused on Cleveland State, Wright State, Milwaukee, and even Detroit, the Norse are very capable of slipping past all 4 to nab the title. Probable StartersPG: Bryson Langdon, 5-9 RS Soph. (10.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 27.3% 3Pt) SG: Marques Warrick, 6-2 RS Fr. (15.8 ppg, 36.1% 3Pt) Wing: Trevon Faulkner, 6-3 RS Jr. (16.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 27.5% 3Pt) PF: Chris Brandon, 6-8 RS Jr. (5.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 74.5% FG, with Detroit) PF: Adrian Nelson, 6-7 RS Jr. (8.4 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 68.8% FG) Key Bench PlayersPG: Sam Vinson, 6-3 Fr. SG: Trey Robinson, 6-6 RS Fr. (5.3 ppg, 29.0% 3Pt) SG: Isaiah Mason, 6-4 Fr. SF: Seybian Sims, 6-7 RS Jr. (6.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 35.7% 3Pt with North Dakota) F: David Bohm, 6-9 RS Fr. (7.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 30.4% 3Pt)
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 30, 2021 20:06:15 GMT -5
Robert MorrisIn 2013, Andy Toole’s Robert Morris Colonials won the Northeast Conference regular season championship, which got them an NIT bid after being upset by Mt. St. Mary’s in the conference tournament. There the Colonials got an unexpected home game against Kentucky—the Cats, planning to be off playing in the NCAA, had booked their arena—and cashed in with a 59-57 win. In 2014, the Colonials won the NEC regular season again, but again were upset by Mt. St. Mary’s. Back to the NIT they went, where they knocked off St. John’s in the opening round. In 2015 the Colonials finally won the NEC tournament, and then beat North Florida in an NCAA play-in game in Dayton, before losing badly to Duke in the main event. Together with a couple of NCAA appearances under Mike Rice in 2009 and 2010, and the catchy media fact that Toole was the youngest head coach in Division 1 when he took over in 2011, those wins gave the Colonials a bit of a buzz among NCAA hoops fans that still lingers. Although the Colonials won the NEC tournament in 2020 to gain a berth in the never held NCAA tournament, RMU hoops has struggled since 2015. Even with the 2020 season, the Colonials are just 82-104 over the last 6 seasons. And of course the first year in the Horizon was a disaster. With no fans in attendance due to Wuhan virus, the Colonials couldn’t show off their shiny new UMPC Center, nor even see what kind of attendance they could draw to a new facility (it actually opened for the 2019-20 season) in a new league. RMU had more virus problems and cancelled games than most teams, and its best player, AJ Bramah (21.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg), simply quit on the team, first for a week in January, then for good in early February. Despite the disappointing HL debut and the struggles of the last several seasons, Toole isn’t in any danger—his contract was extended through the 2026 season last year—but Robert Morris wants to get back on track. The UMPC Center at Robert MorrisOne encouraging thing is that teams that have moved up to the Horizon have seen a decline in their W-L record that first year in the league, but bounced back in the second (the exception was Valpo, whose conference mark declined in year 1 even though their overall record and ranking improved; Valpo then nosedived in their second Horizon season, before recovering in their third). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that doesn’t hold for schools “moving up” the conference ladder generally, though I didn’t want to do all the work to find out. For the small sample size of teams moving up to join the Horizon over the past 20 years, it works. School | Year | Conference | W-L Rec. | Conf W-L | KenPom Rank | Youngstown State | 2001 2002 2003 | Mid-Continent Horizon Horizon | 19-11 5-23 9-20 | 11-5 2-14 4-12 | N/A 283 256 | Valparaiso | 2007 2008 2009 | Summit Horizon Horizon | 16-15 22-14 9-22 | 9-5 9-9 5-13 | 148 119 226 | Oakland | 2012 2013 2014 | Summit Horizon Horizon | 16-17 13-20 16-17 | 10-6 7-9 11-5 | 149 200 194 | Northern Kentucky | 2015 2016 2017 | Atlantic Sun Horizon Horizon | 13-17 9-21 24-11 | 7-7 5-13 12-6 | 246 255 138 | IUPUI | 2017 2018 2019 | Summit Horizon Horizon | 14-18 11-19 16-17 | 7-9 8-10 8-10 | 198 284 191 | Purdue-Ft. Wayne | 2020 2021 | Summit Horizon | 14-19 8-15 | 6-10 6-14 | 261 280 | Robert Morris | 2020 2021 | Northeast Horizon | 20-14 4-15 | 13-5 3-12 | 207 303 |
Toole had brought in an excellent recruiting class to try to improve on last year’s disappointment. The new faces include a bevy of transfers: well-traveled guard Ferron Flavors from Oklahoma State; well-traveled guard Rasheem Dunn from St. John’s (both guards are on their 4th school); guard Michael Green, who averaged 16 points last year at Bryant; Jaron Williams, a double-digit scorer at Tennessee-Martin; Matt Acunzio, a 6-8 forward who had a solid freshman season last year at Toledo; 6-11 Brandon Stone from La Salle; forward Justin Winston, a starter at St. Bonaventure in 2020; and juco All-America forward Matt Mayers. The class also includes Tristian Jeffries, a nice-looking small forward from New Jersey. This is the biggest infusion of talent in the league. They’ll join three returning players: forward Kahliel Spear, who ripped the Titans for 22 points in the conference tournament; guard Kam Farris, the Colonials top recruit a year ago, who averaged 8.3 points as a true freshman; and guard Enoch Cheeks, who was a bit disappointing as a freshman last year but got some good experience. Toole’s challenge will be putting it all together, but these are certainly some nice pieces. I’m at a loss as to what Toole will try to do, so the rest of this is all guesswork. I’ll start by putting Jeffries and Cheeks deep on the bench. Jeffries has some real potential, but he’ll have to sit on it until the 5th year seniors, Flavors and Dunn, clear out. Cheeks is one of those guys who peaked early—he was getting those non-guaranteed offers from high majors including Arizona State as a high school soph, down to St. Bonaventure, GW, UMass, and Rhode Island as a junior, but ending up choosing between Bob Morris and Bryant as a senior. He had moments last year, including a 13 point, 7 rebound game against Milwaukee and 15 points against Oakland, but overall was inconsistent, and I suspect he’ll also be pushed aside this year by the transfers. But that leaves 10 fighting for playing time. I look for Green to seize the point, with Farris, a 46% three point shooter, and probably Dunn at guard in a three guard set up. Green is a weak three point shooter and turns it over too often, but he’s the best they’ve got, he’s very good at getting to the hoop, and he’s a very solid defender. Dunn has no 3 point shot, but is also good at getting to the hoop and can play the 1 or the 2. Flavors will get a bunch of time at the 2 spot, possibly dislodging Dunn or Farris to start, and the 6-6 Williams will be a valuable addition when Toole needs to get a bit bigger on the court, or wants more three point shooting. At forward, Spear is a gimme—he’s a solid rebounder, a rim protector (1.3 bpg last year), and averaged 10 points per game on 60% shooting. I’m guessing here, but I see the other spot going to Winston. Variously a three or four-star recruit out of high school (with offers from UConn, Pitt, and Minnesota, among many others) Winston started as a freshman at St. Bonaventure, but after playing just 18 minutes in the Bonnies first two games last year, left the team and eventually transferred to Bob Morris. A muscular 6-8, 225 lbs., he has the potential to be a dominant player in the Horizon paint. Mayers, an All-American at top juco program Hutchinson State, is another inside player and should back-up Spear and Winston. Brandon Stone is big and averaged about 11 minutes per game as a freshman at La Salle, but like Winston left his A10 team early last season and transferred to Morris. He’ll add depth, along with Acunzio. Last year, a lot of people seemed to think the Colonials would make a big splash in the Horizon. A majority of the preseason polls I tracked had the Colonials in the top 4 in the league. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/21892. As implied in the little chart up at the top of this post, that was probably always unrealistic. This year, the Colonials are flying below the radar—of the predictions I’ve seen so far, none have Robert Morris in the top half of the league, and a majority have them in the bottom third, with Athlon putting them last. With the Horizon as strong top to bottom as its been in a decade, Toole’s team may not crack the top half, but this is not a bottom feeder. Somewhere between 6th and 8th is very realistic, but I wouldn’t be shocked by a 3rd or 4th place finish. It’s a veteran team, an older team, with lots of guys who can score. Despite some recent struggles, Toole is a good coach. Beware the Colonials. Probable StartersPG – Michael Green, 5-11 RS Soph (16.0 ppg, 3.7 apg, 32.5% 3PtFG @ Bryant) SG – Kam Farris, 6-3 RS Fr (8.3 ppg, 46.1% 3PtFG) G – Rasheem Dunn, 2xRS Sr. (9.4 ppg, 4.0 apg @ St. John’s). PF – Kahliel Spear, 6-7 RS Jr. (9.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) PF – Justin Winston, 6-8 RS Soph (8.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg @ St. Bonaventure in 2020) BenchG – Ferron Flavors, 6-3 2xRS Sr (3.4 ppg @ Oklahoma St; 13.5 ppg, 43.9% 3Pt FG @ Cal Baptist in 2020) G/SF – Jaron Williams, 6-6 RS Jr. (10.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 36.6% 3PtFG @ Tennessee-Martin) G – Enoch Cheeks, 6-3 RS Fr. (4.9 ppg) SF – Tristian Jeffries, 6-6 Fr. PF – Matt Mayers, 6-8 RS Soph (17.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg @ Hutchinson CC) PF – Mattia Acunzo, 6-8 2xRS Fr (5.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg @ Toledo) C – Brandon Stone, 6-11 RS Soph. (3.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg @ La Salle in 2020)
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Post by Rogobob77 on Sept 30, 2021 20:52:50 GMT -5
At yesterday’s luncheon, Mike Davis mentioned about five or six Horizon teams that he thought would be the Titans’ toughest competition this upcoming season. He included RMU in that top tier and indicated they have an outstanding group of incoming players.
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Post by happy on Sept 30, 2021 22:13:53 GMT -5
Robert MorrisIn 2013, Andy Toole’s Robert Morris Colonials won the Northeast Conference regular season championship, which got them an NIT bid after being upset by Mt. St. Mary’s in the conference tournament. There the Colonials got an unexpected home game against Kentucky—the Cats, planning to be off playing in the NCAA, had booked their arena—and cashed in with a 59-57 win. 2013 was the last year the Detroit Titans went to the NIT and lost to Arizona State University. Hopefully we have an opportunity to make the tournament this year.
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Post by ptctitan on Oct 1, 2021 3:49:27 GMT -5
Robert MorrisIn 2013, Andy Toole’s Robert Morris Colonials won the Northeast Conference regular season championship, which got them an NIT bid after being upset by Mt. St. Mary’s in the conference tournament. There the Colonials got an unexpected home game against Kentucky—the Cats, planning to be off playing in the NCAA, had booked their arena—and cashed in with a 59-57 win. 2013 was the last year the Detroit Titans went to the NIT and lost to Arizona State University. Hopefully we have an opportunity to make the tournament this year. By "the tournament," I hope you mean the NCAA. The differences in "expert" opinions about the various HL teams are really cases of the knowns versus the unknowns. On paper, RMU has as many or more good players as NKU, Milwaukee, and even Wright State. The difference is that NKU and WSU have knowns in the form of their returning players with whom most HL fans are familiar. Baldwin is a known for Milwaukee because he is rated a top 10 incoming freshman and Gholston came on strong late last season. The sudden emergence of Cleveland State two years ago plus our strong finish last season after Waterman joined the rotation ought to inform "the experts" about teams like us and RMU. Even our surprisingly strong start in 2018-19 confounded "the experts." RMU is the HL team most likely to surprise the most to the upside in 2021-22. It doesn't take much improvement on any HL roster for that team to become a real competitive threat. I don't know if the HL is a two-bid league again; but the level of hoops played in 2021-22 likely will be the best since the era when Butler and Valpo were in their HL primes. IMO, this year's HL is the most underrated conference in D-1.
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Post by happy on Oct 1, 2021 5:58:54 GMT -5
2013 was the last year the Detroit Titans went to the NIT and lost to Arizona State University. Hopefully we have an opportunity to make the tournament this year. By "the tournament," I hope you mean the NCAA. The differences in "expert" opinions about the various HL teams are really cases of the knowns versus the unknowns. On paper, RMU has as many or more good players as NKU, Milwaukee, and even Wright State. The difference is that NKU and WSU have knowns in the form of their returning players with whom most HL fans are familiar. Baldwin is a known for Milwaukee because he is rated a top 10 incoming freshman and Gholston came on strong late last season. The sudden emergence of Cleveland State two years ago plus our strong finish last season after Waterman joined the rotation ought to inform "the experts" about teams like us and RMU. Even our surprisingly strong start in 2018-19 confounded "the experts." RMU is the HL team most likely to surprise the most to the upside in 2021-22. It doesn't take much improvement on any HL roster for that team to become a real competitive threat. I don't know if the HL is a two-bid league again; but the level of hoops played in 2021-22 likely will be the best since the era when Butler and Valpo were in their HL primes. IMO, this year's HL is the most underrated conference in D-1. Of course our GOAL every year should be to make the NCAA tournament. 🤩 Especially this hoops season since as your saying, 2021-22 likely will be the best since the era when Butler and Valpo were in their HL primes and don't know if the HL is a two-bid league again. Northern Kentucky has been a great replacement for Valpo. In my opinion, from The Commissioners previews, we look like a two-bid league this season however, with the major conferences taking over more of the invites, there is more uncertainty then in the past having a two-bid league.
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Post by motorcitysam on Oct 1, 2021 6:19:18 GMT -5
Robert MorrisIn 2013, Andy Toole’s Robert Morris Colonials won the Northeast Conference regular season championship, which got them an NIT bid after being upset by Mt. St. Mary’s in the conference tournament. There the Colonials got an unexpected home game against Kentucky—the Cats, planning to be off playing in the NCAA, had booked their arena—and cashed in with a 59-57 win. 2013 was the last year the Detroit Titans went to the NIT and lost to Arizona State University. Hopefully we have an opportunity to make the tournament this year. For awhile there, I was kind of hating Arizona State. Beat us in the 2013 NIT, crushed us in the regular season in December 2014, and stole Shaq McKissic from us in the class of 2015. Then they hired Bobby Hurley, so I really hate them now.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 4, 2021 7:59:31 GMT -5
Green BayYour Horizon League trivia of the day: What school has had the most All-Conference players (first or second team) since the Horizon (nee MCC) absorbed the top half of the Mid-Continent Conference in the spring of 1994? (No, it’s not Green Bay). You might be tempted by Butler, but remember, they were only in the league for 18 of the ensuing 27 years. It’s actually Wright State, which has had 19 first team all-conference players (the most of any school), and 17 second team selections (tied for the most of any school). But Green Bay does show up very well on the list, with 15 first team selections and 17 second teamers. Oakland has done quite well since entering the league, with 9 first team selections in 8 years—the highest “per season” average of any school. Kampe has a knack for promoting his players, which Tony Paul is always happy to oblige (and this is not to say OU hasn’t had some very good individual players). Despite winning just two regular season titles in the HL—isn’t that embarrassing?--the Titans look pretty good here, with 16 first teamers (tied with Butler for the most after Wright State) and 16 second team selections, for 32 total, tied with Green Bay for second most. The Titans also have the second most Player of the Year selections, after Butler. In fact, the Titans have had more players recognized with league honors than any other team in the MCC/Horizon since the league took on its modern shape with the absorption of the top half of the Mid-Continent/Summit. Here’s a little table: School | Yrs. in Conf. | 1st Team | 2d Team | Total All Conf | All D | All New/ Fr. | POY | DPOY | N/FOY | 6th POY | Wright State | '95-'21 | 19 | 17 | 36 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | Detroit | '95-'21 | 16 | 16 | 32 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | Green Bay | '95-'21 | 15 | 17 | 32 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Butler | '95-'12 | 16 | 12 | 28 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | Milwaukee | '95-'21 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | UIC | '95-'21 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 13 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | Cleveland State | '95-'21 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Loyola | '95-'13 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Oakland | '14-'21 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Valparaiso | '08-'17 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | Youngstown State | '02-'21 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Northern Kentucky | '16-'21 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Northern Illinois | '95-'97 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | IUPUI | '18-'21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Xavier | 1995 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | La Salle | 1995 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Robert Morris | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Fort Wayne | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Key 1st Team - First team all conference selections since 1995 2d Team - Second team all conference selections since 1995 Total - Total 1st/2d team all conference selections since 1995 All-D - All Defensive team selections since 1996 All New/Fr. - All Newcomer team selections (1995-2013), All Freshman (2014-2021) POY - Total Player of the Year selections since 1995 DPOY - Total Defensive Player of the Year selections since 2008 N/FOY - Total Newcomer of the Year (1995-2012)/Freshman of the Year (2013-2021) 6th POY - Total 6th Man of the Year selections since 2008Unfortunately for Phoenix fans, I don’t see anyone on the roster who is an especially likely candidate for post-season honors this year. After a subpar 8-17 mark last year, Green Bay’s top three players—Amari Davis, PJ Pipes, and Josh Jefferson—hit the transfer portal, and Terrance Thompson, last year’s most hyped recruit, headed off to the juco ranks after a disappointing season. The argument around Appleton, Suamico, and other northern Wisconsin metropolises is that second year coach Will Ryan now has his type of players, guys who buy into and understand Ryan’s system (more on that below). I’m dubious that that will compensate enough for the talent level to compete in the Horizon this year. The most likely player to garner post-season honors for Green Bay is junior Emmanuel Ansong (or, as I’ve classified people in these previews by eligibility remaining, he’s a redshirt sophomore). As an undersized, 6-4 forward without a three-point shot, Ansong was lightly recruited in high school and ended up signing with Ryan at D-2 Wheeling. After a strong freshman year there, he followed Ryan to Green Bay and is the club’s top returning scorer (10.4 ppg) and rebounder (5.3 rpg). It took a bit of time for him to adjust to D-1 play, but he was really kicking it at year-end, averaging 15.4 points and 7.6 rebounds while shooting 66% from the floor in Green Bay’s last 7 games. Ansong plays way above his size and is a very nice piece to build around. But he needs someone bigger to help inside on defense and on the glass. Ryan hopes he’s found that big man in 6-9, 230 lb. juco transfer Tutu Majok, who averaged over 10 rebounds a game at Bossier Parrish CC. Majok is a rim protector and a good passer—exactly the type of center who should make Ansong an even better player. But Majok is unproven at the D-1 level, and if he doesn’t rise to the occasion, the forecourt is all question marks behind him and Ansong. Cem Kirciman and Japannah Kellogg were both minor contributors last year. Both retain freshman eligibility. 6-8 Freshman Cade Meyer is a solid recruit who will get every chance to play. I see Meyer as a multi-year starter for Green Bay, but whether he ready for big minutes as a freshman is more questionable. Ditto for Brayden Daily, a 6-6 small forward (wing). Finally, walk-on Small forward Ryan Claflin started 11 games last year as a freshman, averaging 2.4 points. Obviously, somebody needs to step up—Majok is the most likely candidate. In the backcourt, Ryan starts with Lucas Steiber, a walk-on last year who ended up making the HL All-Freshman team. Steiber’s a nice quarterback, although he needs to improve both his outside shooting and his ability to finish at the rim. The other guards, like the forwards after Ansong, are all question marks. First, there’s a trio of transfers, none of whom looks like a sure winner. Mitch Listau is a shooting guard who comes over from Belmont, where he played regularly but in a limited role as a three point specialist, averaging 8 minutes per game in 2020 and 11 in 2021, with a career 2.9 scoring average. Nate Jenkins, another shooting guard, transfers in from Iowa State, which would be more impressive if he’d been a scholarship player there rather than a walk-on. He played more than many walk-ons, getting into 10 games last year at almost 5 minutes per game, but averaging less than a point per game. The third is Donovan Ivory, a young man with commitment issues. Ivory signed with UMass-Lowell and joined the team in the fall of 2019, but gave up his scholarship after one semester (playing a total of 17 minutes in 3 games) to transfer to Boise State as a walk-on. He became eligible for Boise last December, but after playing a total of 6 minutes in 3 games, left the team to transfer to Green Bay. Maybe he’ll stay put this time—like Listau and Jenkins, he’s a native Cheesehead, and may be ready to settle down. Other backcourt candidates are Blayton Williams, who joined the team from the juco ranks a year ago but missed the 2020-21 season with injuries, and juco transfer Randy Tucker, who gets on the floor to shoot threes (almost 60 percent of his shots at Vincennes CC came from behind the arc). Steiber’s likely back up at the point will be freshman Kamari McGee, another Wisconsin kid who led his high school team to a 25-0 state title. He’s said to be quick and explosive off the first step, and carries a 4.0 GPA. My sense is that McGee may be the best of the bunch, but I’m going to pencil him down as Steiber’s backup, at least to start the season. Ryan’s “system,” which has drawn a lot of attention, is the basic “swing” offense used by his father, former Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan. On defense, it’s the “pack line” made popular by former Green Bay and Wisconsin coach Dick Bennett, and kept in place later by Bo at Wisconsin. The swing offense is made to order for a small but effective inside player like Ansong, and the belief is that with Ryan having a full year to recruit his style of players (i.e., more players like Ansong), the team’s offense, one of the least effective in the league a year ago, will improve. Meanwhile, the “pack line” is a defense—a sort of sagging man-to-man aimed at stopping penetration—that is made to order for our Titans, with their strong three point shooting. The Titans shot 56% from behind the arc in sweeping the Phoenix last year. But it can cause real problems for teams with weak three-point shooting. That latter category likely includes projected contenders Milwaukee, Northern Kentucky, and Cleveland State, making the Phoenix a potentially dangerous opponent for some of the league's better teams. Still, overall, it just doesn’t look like the talent is there to escape a bottom third finish. As noted, Ansong is a nice piece—but that said, I’m not sure he’s one of the top 15 players in a rejuvenated Horizon. Steiber’s solid at the point, but several conference teams have point guards who are as good or better. And after those two, literally everything is a question mark. Of the conference projections I’ve seen so far, none have the Phoenix picked higher than 10th. I’d have to agree. Probable StartersPG – Lucas Steiber, 6-3 RS Fr. (3.8 ppg, 4.0 apg, 29.5% 3Pt) SG – Mitch Listau, 6-4 2xRS Soph. (3.1 ppg, 35.0% 3Pt. at Belmont) SF – Emmanuel Ansong, 6-4 RS Soph. (10.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) PF – Cade Meyer, 6-8 Fr. C – Tutu Majok, 6-9 RS Soph. (10.5 ppg, 10.5 rpg at Bossier CC) BenchPG – Kamari McGee, 6-0 Fr. SG – Nate Jenkins, 6-2 RS Soph (0.6 ppg at Iowa State) SG – Donovan Ivory, 6-6 RS Soph (played 6 minutes at Boise State) SG – Donavan Moore, 6-3 RS Soph (2.6 ppg in 7 games) SG – Blayton Williams, 6-3 RS Jr. (missed 2021 with injury) SG – Randy Tucker, 6-4 RS Soph. (8.5 ppg, 38.8% 3Pt at Vincennes CC) F – Japannah Kellog, 6-8 2xRS Fr (4.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg) F – Ryan Claflin, 6-6 RS Fr. (2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg) F – Cem Kirciman, 6-8 RS Fr. (1.6 ppg, 1.5 rpg) F – Brayden Dailey, 6-6 Fr.
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