Horizon 2022: Taking stock after non-conference play
Dec 26, 2021 22:18:02 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner on Dec 26, 2021 22:18:02 GMT -5
All the Horizon non-conference games are done. A couple conference games have been played, too, and those have given a quick start to Oakland, Detroit, and Youngstown State, which all won a pair on the road, and Cleveland State, which, playing at home, knocked off two other pre-season favorites (and in recent years, the league's two dominant teams), Wright State and Northern Kentucky. But serious conference play begins next week, and it's time to review and see how things are stacking up.
In the order of their pre-season rank in the Horizon League poll (I used KenPom for non-conference SOS--formulas for that determination vary quite a bit):
1. Cleveland State. Record 6-3; NCSOS 121; NET 163; RPI 216.
Cleveland State is probably the only team in the league that hasn't lost any games I really think it should have won. The Vikings lost a tough road match up at BYU, and in overtime at Oklahoma State. They also lost to Ohio U. at home. Ideally they would have won at least one of the Oklahoma State/Ohio U. games--probably the latter--but none of those are bad defeats. But equally, their non-conference wins are pathetic--3-9 Canisius, 1-14 Coppin State (by just 3 points), and a couple of non-D1 teams, all at home. Beating Wright State and Northern Kentucky at the start of the month marks them as the team to beat though. Those two haven't been good, but they were expected to be good, and they have been the dominant teams in the league of late.
Point guard Craig Beaudion has missed the last 7 games and is probably out for the year. Al Eichelberger has yet to play. Meanwhile, the team is currently on COVID protocols, resulting in the cancellation of their games at Duke and Kent State. The Vikings play four of their next 5 on the road, but those are largely against weak sisters, including IUPUI and Bob Morris. At this point you have to figure CSU, the defending champ, is the conference favorite, by simple default.
1. Wright State. Record 4-7; NCSOS 155; NET 261; RPI 271.
Just when it appeared safe to give up on Wright State, the Raiders rose up and smote North Carolina State in Raleigh. It's not just that the Raiders had been losing--they'd been losing bad--by 44 to Purdue, by 28 to Akron--and losing to some bad teams--by 11 points to 4-8 George Washington (NET 268); by 9 points to 2-7 Long Beach State (NET 269), by 8 to 5-6 Marshall (NET 209). Their prior wins were over Lake Erie, 1-10 Tennessee Tech, and 5-6 Purdue-Fort Wayne.
It's hard to see why WSU opened so poorly. Obviously, they miss Loudon Love more than many, including me, thought they would. Defenses no longer collapse around Love and the three point shooters are less open for kick-outs--Grant Basile's three point shooting is down from 40% to 18%; Tim Finke's from 42% to 30%. They are lacking in any depth, and Coach Nagy can't figure out who his 5th starter should be--he's tried 5 different players there in 11 games. Mostly, though, they just seem to have played rather listless ball.
They finally showed some intensity in the win over NC State, which gives them a touch of positive momentum to end non-conference play. It looks like Nagy may have settled on freshman AJ Braun in that 5th spot. In Basile and Tanner Holden, they have two of the league's best players. The schedulers are also smiling on the Raiders--their next 4 are at home, against Green Bay, Milwaukee, IUPUI, and UIC. They could easily win all 4 and be 5-1 in conference play when they travel to Northern Kentucky on January 10. Unless they drop a couple in this home stand (UIC and Milwaukee are most likely--it's really hard to see them losing to Green Bay or IUPUI) I guess I'd still be looking at them as one of the favorites.
3. Northern Kentucky. Record 4-7; NCSOS 200; NET 267; RPI 286.
Northern Kentucky's only D-1 wins so far have come at home against Canisius and Eastern Michigan, the latter by one point. In addition to losing at Cleveland State, they lost by double digits at Fort Wayne. Like Nagy at Wright State, Coach Darren Horn hasn't been able to decide on a 5th starter, trying 4 players in the slot. His star, Trevon Faulkner, has improved his three point shooting but his other numbers are down across the board. The decline has been even sharper for his other star, last year's All-Freshman selection Marquis Warrick.
On the plus side, Adrian Nelson is solid, and freshman Sam Vinson has proven to be the real deal. Vinson leads the team in minutes played. But as I thought my be the case, Chris Brandon has been a bit of a redundancy to Nelson. He's been OK, but is averaging under 17 minutes, because you don't usually need two players like he and Nelson on the floor at one time. Like their travel partner, Wright State, the Norse get some nice scheduling, with UIC, Green Bay, IUPUI, and Milwaukee at home for the next four games, then Wright State at home. But if they don't make a move in these next two and a half weeks, they're unlikely to do so later.
4. Milwaukee. Record 3-8. NCSOS 164; NET 324; RPI 340. Milwaukee completes a trio of teams that have been huge disappointments this year. But in Milwaukee's case, I'm inclined to blame the prognosticators as much as the team. The high predictions for Milwaukee were based almost entirely on the arrival of Patrick Baldwin, Jr., a consensus top 6 player in the high school class of 2021. I'm not saying I predicted the debacle that has ensued so far, because I didn't. But I did express a cautionary note in my preview: "I can also envision [Baldwin] being good but not great—say 14 points and 7 rebounds—as Milwaukee finishes somewhere between 3rd and 6th." Baldwin is averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds, and perhaps I should have said "between 5th and 9th." Even in basketball--a sport where one person can really make a difference--it's hard for one person to turn a team around. The nature of the modern game, and the depth of talent, is such that it is hard for one player to truly dominate on the court. Even the most dominant collegians in history only made their teams good, not great, unless they had some major talent alongside them. And even the best high school prospects usually don't become immediate superstars. The load placed on young Baldwin was probably unfair.
That said, I don't write Milwaukee off. I don't see them winning the league, but they could cause other teams some real problems. Baldwin has missed 4 games, and when playing is shooting just 40.8% overall and 32.6% from three. I expect both numbers to improve, and his game generally to become more consistent. D'Andre Gholston has been, as expected, Baldwin's wing man, but while Gholston is also averaging 15 points per game, his numbers are down across the board. The same is true for Josh Thomas, who has also lost time to injury. I think both will contribute more in conference play. A couple of 7-0 transfers, Moses Bol and Samba Kane, have been non-factors, and UTEP transfer Jordon Lathon hasn't added a whole lot either. But I expect Milwaukee to shoot better (they currently rank 312th in the nation in FG percentage and 284th in three-point percentage). A pleasant surprise has been Joey St. Pierre, a 6-11 walk-on transfer from D-2, who is grabbing rebounds and providing the interior defense expected from the more heralded Kane and Bol.
Milwaukee's only wins are against NAIA St. Xavier, 4-10 North Dakota, and 2-9 Robert Morris. They'll do better, but dreams of a Sweet 16 are a thing of the past. Now a finish in the first division would probably be greeted with a sigh of relief. And who knows--maybe all this means they'll have PBJ for another season.
5. Detroit. Record 4-7. NCSOS 36; NET 225; RPI 218. Come to think of it, the Titans have been disappointing, too. That's teams 2 through 5 in the preseason poll that simply haven't pulled the weight expected of them. The Titans were considered by some a dark horse to take it all. Despite a disappointing non-conference season--the Titans played a brutal non-conference schedule but lost to all of the good teams they played, all on the road--I actually think the Titans look like a better bet for a top-three finish than before the season started, if only because Wright State and NKU have looked so much weaker than expected. Detroit is another team that has yet to click on all cylinders, with Noah Waterman missing several games and struggling to find any rhythm when he has. DJ Harvey has been in the same boat, Jordan Phillips has been absent, and then there was the failed Prince Oduro experiment. I think all the Titans really need to be a very good team is a third consistent scoring threat along Antoine Davis and Madut Akec, and it is likely that Waterman, Matt Johnson, or perhaps Harvey will emerge as that threat. The Titans are another team that benefits from the schedule--having pocketed a pair of conference road wins, our guys now have 5 straight at home and are well-positioned for a quick start. After these five comes a tough stretch with 9 of 11 on the road, but the Titans then finish with 4 straight at home, including the favorite, Cleveland State, and presumed contenders NKU and Wright State. The downside is that if the Titans don't do well in these next five, it will be tough to get back in the race. Or maybe all those non-conference games on the road will prove their worth.
6. Oakland. Record 7-4. NCSOS 9. NET 69. RPI 23. We owe at least a little to our despised northern neighbors, who have been the conference's only pleasant surprise in the non-conference season. Oakland's overtime win over Oklahoma State is the conference's best this year, as is its W-L record and its healthy NET and RPI rankings. They're 2-0 in conference and play the next 4 at home. The Griz have to be considered a contender, and perhaps even the favorite now over Cleveland State.
Unlike some Titan fans, I've never been an OU hater, but I have to admit, Oakland has gotten on my nerves this year. It's been a very good start for OU--no doubt about that, and I envy them their wins over OSU and Toledo and another top 100 NET/RPI team, Vermont. But there's just been too much "oh this team is special" stuff for my taste. OU's start has been good, not great. Oklahoma State is a good team, not a great one (NET 75, RPI 90; taken to OT by Cleveland State). Contra Tony Paul, the MSU/OU game did not have "NCAA implications," unless you were desperately wondering whether Oakland, should they win the conference tournament, would be seeded 15th, or have a shot at a #14 seed. Oakland lost to Alabama--unlike OSU, a ranked team--by 26 points. One week later Iona, which is 10-2, beat Alabama. Davidson (9-2) also beat Alabama. There are a bunch of other mid-majors--Belmont, Wagner (6-2 with a road win at VCU and a #42 NET rank), Murray State, Monmouth, and several more, who have had more impressive non-conference seasons and better wins than Oakland. The Oakland PR machine is impressive but getting a bit ridiculous.
Nevertheless, Oakland deserves to be ranked as one of the favorites, based on what they've done on the court. I retain some skepticism, however. This is basically a four-man team of Jamal Cain, Jalen Moore, Trey Townsend, and Micah Parrish. These four have scored well over 80% of the team's points--in the MSU game they scored literally every Oakland point. Antoine Davis leads the nation in minutes per game, but Townsend is second, Moore sixth, and Cain 17th. Parrish is in the top 100--he'd be in the top 30 but for the Toledo game, where he picked up 5 fouls in under 17 minutes, and his average over the past 7 games would be 12th. St. Bonaventure is the only other school with 3 players in the top 50 (7th, 18th, and 47th) and no other schools have 4 players in the top 100. Of course, this doesn't mean they can't continue to play major minutes, or do so in a tournament setting--OU swept three decent mid-majors in three days to win the Gulf Coast Showcase in November. And Kampe does things--like pull his players off the foul line--to save their legs during games. His top players have always played a lot of minutes. Still, you have to wonder how far a team with so little depth can go. An ankle sprain for Moore, a case of Covid for Cain, and this team could be in trouble. Or maybe I'm too pessimistic--Zion Young has averaged over 6 points per game since missing the first 5 games of the year, and when Parrish got in foul trouble at Toledo, Blake Lampman stepped up and scored 18 points.
We might also note that OU's three point shooting has been way off this year--they currently rank #344 in percentage, even as they continue to take more than most teams. Moore is at 24.2%, down from 34.9% a year ago. Townsend is at 21.7%, down from 33.3%. Parrish is at 25%, down from 34.9%. And even Jamal Cain, an early leader for HL POY, is shooting just 30.6%, versus 37.7% in four years at Marquette. If these guys at all begin to revert to the norm, OU could be very tough. After this over-hyped but good start, anything less than a top-three finish will be a major disappointment--indeed, if one buys the hype, perhaps that can be said of anything less than top one finish.
7. Youngstown State. Record 7-4; NCSOS 339; NET 194; RPI 262.
Youngstown State has used the non-conference season to prove that they can do something that could serve them very well in conference play--beat bad teams. The teams they've beaten, which include one non-D1 opponent, are 14-51 against D-1 competition. Before the season began, I suggested that the Penguins, playing that very cushy schedule, could easily go 7-2 in non-conference play. And I think they would have, had their best player, Garrett Covington, not been hurt in the season's third game. That was the first game of YSU's hosted tournament, so they had to play the next two days without Covington, and narrowly lost to Niagara and SIUE. After that, they got 10 days to reset themselves, and proceeded to win 5 straight (against weak competition) before dropping their final non-conference game at West Virginia. That left the Penguins at 5-4 in non-con play, plus with road wins against Milwaukee and Green Bay in the December conference openers.
Tevin Olison, a grad transfer from NAIA Cumberland, has stepped up to average over 12 points, with three 20-point games; after a slow start to the season Dwayne Cohill, an oft-injured transfer from Dayton, has averaged 13.8 points and 5.6 rebounds over the last 5 games. YSU visits Detroit and Oakland this coming week, which should tell us much about their possibilities. My guess is that that 7th-place pre-season prediction is about right--they'll beat the bad (or perhaps, given it's the Horizon, I should say the "worst") teams, and lose to the not quite as awful teams.
8. UIC. Record 4-7; NCSOS 173; NET 274; RPI 281.
I'm glad the Titans got their road game at UIC out of the way early, because I think UIC could be a better team than they've let on. They led Dayton for the first 12 minutes of the second half, before a 7-minute scoring drought did them in. Similarly, they led Loyola for almost all of the first 27 minutes of the game. They nearly beat Oakland, and lost to DePaul in the final minute. UIC"s big problem has been the complete lack of an inside game, but that may be changing as 6-11 Marcus Larsen, a transfer from Incarnate Word who missed the team's first 7 games due to injury, starts to round into shape. Still, a second division finish looks likely.
9. Purdue-Fort Wayne. Record 5-5; NCSOS 338; NET 296; RPI 325.
Fort Wayne managed to eek out a .500 record in non-conference play, thanks to their game with Michigan being cancelled, and wins over D-3 Earlham and a trio of teams--Austin Peay, SE Missouri State, and Southeastern Louisiana--that are a combined 6-23 against D-1 competition. Losses at Minnesota and Florida Gulf Coast are no embarrassment, but a 21 point loss at SIUE and a loss to Western Michigan on a neutral floor are troubling. Ultimately, this year's Mastodons look a lot like last year's Mastodons--not a very good team, but a team with lots of three-point shooting that, if the shooters are hot, can shock anybody on any given night. Perhaps the most dangerous team likely to finish in the Horizon's bottom half.
10. Robert Morris. Record 2-9; NCSOS 30; NET 325; RPI 316.
Last year Bob Morris was a trendy first division pick in the pre-season, but the adjustment to the HL was harder than many thought, and the Colonials finished last in the conference. It's seems funny that just a year ago I could say that the Horizon was, for all its faults, a significantly better conference than the Northeast Conference from which RMU came. Whether that remains true I'm not so sure. Coach Andy Toole brought in a bunch of transfers who looked good on paper, but have almost uniformly disappointed. They've played a solid non-conference schedule and have had a bunch of injuries, but even factoring that in, I don't see RMU making any noise in the conference race.
11. Green Bay. Record 2-9; NCSOS 49; NET 323; RPI 300.
Green Bay is as bad as most figured they would be. It should be noted that they lost close ones--four points or less--to Indiana State, UNC-Greensboro, and Florida International. None of them are world beaters, but all have a NET on the right side of 200. So maybe there is hope. The Phoenix have got no juniors and just one senior on the roster. Wait til next year.
12. IUPUI. Record 1-10; NCSOS 336; NET 356; RPI 355.
Note that IUPUI has managed to go 0-10 against a D-1 schedule ranked 336th in the country (their lone win is over D-3 Spalding).
I think Oakland (based mainly on this year's non-conference season) and CSU (based mainly on being the defending champ and not screwing up royally in non-conference play) merit standing as the favorites. Detroit is as good a dark horse as anyone. I still fear Wright State and Northern Kentucky, but at this point I'd take the Titans over either. Milwaukee, Youngstown State, and maybe UIC can also fight for the middle of the pack.
In the order of their pre-season rank in the Horizon League poll (I used KenPom for non-conference SOS--formulas for that determination vary quite a bit):
1. Cleveland State. Record 6-3; NCSOS 121; NET 163; RPI 216.
Cleveland State is probably the only team in the league that hasn't lost any games I really think it should have won. The Vikings lost a tough road match up at BYU, and in overtime at Oklahoma State. They also lost to Ohio U. at home. Ideally they would have won at least one of the Oklahoma State/Ohio U. games--probably the latter--but none of those are bad defeats. But equally, their non-conference wins are pathetic--3-9 Canisius, 1-14 Coppin State (by just 3 points), and a couple of non-D1 teams, all at home. Beating Wright State and Northern Kentucky at the start of the month marks them as the team to beat though. Those two haven't been good, but they were expected to be good, and they have been the dominant teams in the league of late.
Point guard Craig Beaudion has missed the last 7 games and is probably out for the year. Al Eichelberger has yet to play. Meanwhile, the team is currently on COVID protocols, resulting in the cancellation of their games at Duke and Kent State. The Vikings play four of their next 5 on the road, but those are largely against weak sisters, including IUPUI and Bob Morris. At this point you have to figure CSU, the defending champ, is the conference favorite, by simple default.
1. Wright State. Record 4-7; NCSOS 155; NET 261; RPI 271.
Just when it appeared safe to give up on Wright State, the Raiders rose up and smote North Carolina State in Raleigh. It's not just that the Raiders had been losing--they'd been losing bad--by 44 to Purdue, by 28 to Akron--and losing to some bad teams--by 11 points to 4-8 George Washington (NET 268); by 9 points to 2-7 Long Beach State (NET 269), by 8 to 5-6 Marshall (NET 209). Their prior wins were over Lake Erie, 1-10 Tennessee Tech, and 5-6 Purdue-Fort Wayne.
It's hard to see why WSU opened so poorly. Obviously, they miss Loudon Love more than many, including me, thought they would. Defenses no longer collapse around Love and the three point shooters are less open for kick-outs--Grant Basile's three point shooting is down from 40% to 18%; Tim Finke's from 42% to 30%. They are lacking in any depth, and Coach Nagy can't figure out who his 5th starter should be--he's tried 5 different players there in 11 games. Mostly, though, they just seem to have played rather listless ball.
They finally showed some intensity in the win over NC State, which gives them a touch of positive momentum to end non-conference play. It looks like Nagy may have settled on freshman AJ Braun in that 5th spot. In Basile and Tanner Holden, they have two of the league's best players. The schedulers are also smiling on the Raiders--their next 4 are at home, against Green Bay, Milwaukee, IUPUI, and UIC. They could easily win all 4 and be 5-1 in conference play when they travel to Northern Kentucky on January 10. Unless they drop a couple in this home stand (UIC and Milwaukee are most likely--it's really hard to see them losing to Green Bay or IUPUI) I guess I'd still be looking at them as one of the favorites.
3. Northern Kentucky. Record 4-7; NCSOS 200; NET 267; RPI 286.
Northern Kentucky's only D-1 wins so far have come at home against Canisius and Eastern Michigan, the latter by one point. In addition to losing at Cleveland State, they lost by double digits at Fort Wayne. Like Nagy at Wright State, Coach Darren Horn hasn't been able to decide on a 5th starter, trying 4 players in the slot. His star, Trevon Faulkner, has improved his three point shooting but his other numbers are down across the board. The decline has been even sharper for his other star, last year's All-Freshman selection Marquis Warrick.
On the plus side, Adrian Nelson is solid, and freshman Sam Vinson has proven to be the real deal. Vinson leads the team in minutes played. But as I thought my be the case, Chris Brandon has been a bit of a redundancy to Nelson. He's been OK, but is averaging under 17 minutes, because you don't usually need two players like he and Nelson on the floor at one time. Like their travel partner, Wright State, the Norse get some nice scheduling, with UIC, Green Bay, IUPUI, and Milwaukee at home for the next four games, then Wright State at home. But if they don't make a move in these next two and a half weeks, they're unlikely to do so later.
4. Milwaukee. Record 3-8. NCSOS 164; NET 324; RPI 340. Milwaukee completes a trio of teams that have been huge disappointments this year. But in Milwaukee's case, I'm inclined to blame the prognosticators as much as the team. The high predictions for Milwaukee were based almost entirely on the arrival of Patrick Baldwin, Jr., a consensus top 6 player in the high school class of 2021. I'm not saying I predicted the debacle that has ensued so far, because I didn't. But I did express a cautionary note in my preview: "I can also envision [Baldwin] being good but not great—say 14 points and 7 rebounds—as Milwaukee finishes somewhere between 3rd and 6th." Baldwin is averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds, and perhaps I should have said "between 5th and 9th." Even in basketball--a sport where one person can really make a difference--it's hard for one person to turn a team around. The nature of the modern game, and the depth of talent, is such that it is hard for one player to truly dominate on the court. Even the most dominant collegians in history only made their teams good, not great, unless they had some major talent alongside them. And even the best high school prospects usually don't become immediate superstars. The load placed on young Baldwin was probably unfair.
That said, I don't write Milwaukee off. I don't see them winning the league, but they could cause other teams some real problems. Baldwin has missed 4 games, and when playing is shooting just 40.8% overall and 32.6% from three. I expect both numbers to improve, and his game generally to become more consistent. D'Andre Gholston has been, as expected, Baldwin's wing man, but while Gholston is also averaging 15 points per game, his numbers are down across the board. The same is true for Josh Thomas, who has also lost time to injury. I think both will contribute more in conference play. A couple of 7-0 transfers, Moses Bol and Samba Kane, have been non-factors, and UTEP transfer Jordon Lathon hasn't added a whole lot either. But I expect Milwaukee to shoot better (they currently rank 312th in the nation in FG percentage and 284th in three-point percentage). A pleasant surprise has been Joey St. Pierre, a 6-11 walk-on transfer from D-2, who is grabbing rebounds and providing the interior defense expected from the more heralded Kane and Bol.
Milwaukee's only wins are against NAIA St. Xavier, 4-10 North Dakota, and 2-9 Robert Morris. They'll do better, but dreams of a Sweet 16 are a thing of the past. Now a finish in the first division would probably be greeted with a sigh of relief. And who knows--maybe all this means they'll have PBJ for another season.
5. Detroit. Record 4-7. NCSOS 36; NET 225; RPI 218. Come to think of it, the Titans have been disappointing, too. That's teams 2 through 5 in the preseason poll that simply haven't pulled the weight expected of them. The Titans were considered by some a dark horse to take it all. Despite a disappointing non-conference season--the Titans played a brutal non-conference schedule but lost to all of the good teams they played, all on the road--I actually think the Titans look like a better bet for a top-three finish than before the season started, if only because Wright State and NKU have looked so much weaker than expected. Detroit is another team that has yet to click on all cylinders, with Noah Waterman missing several games and struggling to find any rhythm when he has. DJ Harvey has been in the same boat, Jordan Phillips has been absent, and then there was the failed Prince Oduro experiment. I think all the Titans really need to be a very good team is a third consistent scoring threat along Antoine Davis and Madut Akec, and it is likely that Waterman, Matt Johnson, or perhaps Harvey will emerge as that threat. The Titans are another team that benefits from the schedule--having pocketed a pair of conference road wins, our guys now have 5 straight at home and are well-positioned for a quick start. After these five comes a tough stretch with 9 of 11 on the road, but the Titans then finish with 4 straight at home, including the favorite, Cleveland State, and presumed contenders NKU and Wright State. The downside is that if the Titans don't do well in these next five, it will be tough to get back in the race. Or maybe all those non-conference games on the road will prove their worth.
6. Oakland. Record 7-4. NCSOS 9. NET 69. RPI 23. We owe at least a little to our despised northern neighbors, who have been the conference's only pleasant surprise in the non-conference season. Oakland's overtime win over Oklahoma State is the conference's best this year, as is its W-L record and its healthy NET and RPI rankings. They're 2-0 in conference and play the next 4 at home. The Griz have to be considered a contender, and perhaps even the favorite now over Cleveland State.
Unlike some Titan fans, I've never been an OU hater, but I have to admit, Oakland has gotten on my nerves this year. It's been a very good start for OU--no doubt about that, and I envy them their wins over OSU and Toledo and another top 100 NET/RPI team, Vermont. But there's just been too much "oh this team is special" stuff for my taste. OU's start has been good, not great. Oklahoma State is a good team, not a great one (NET 75, RPI 90; taken to OT by Cleveland State). Contra Tony Paul, the MSU/OU game did not have "NCAA implications," unless you were desperately wondering whether Oakland, should they win the conference tournament, would be seeded 15th, or have a shot at a #14 seed. Oakland lost to Alabama--unlike OSU, a ranked team--by 26 points. One week later Iona, which is 10-2, beat Alabama. Davidson (9-2) also beat Alabama. There are a bunch of other mid-majors--Belmont, Wagner (6-2 with a road win at VCU and a #42 NET rank), Murray State, Monmouth, and several more, who have had more impressive non-conference seasons and better wins than Oakland. The Oakland PR machine is impressive but getting a bit ridiculous.
Nevertheless, Oakland deserves to be ranked as one of the favorites, based on what they've done on the court. I retain some skepticism, however. This is basically a four-man team of Jamal Cain, Jalen Moore, Trey Townsend, and Micah Parrish. These four have scored well over 80% of the team's points--in the MSU game they scored literally every Oakland point. Antoine Davis leads the nation in minutes per game, but Townsend is second, Moore sixth, and Cain 17th. Parrish is in the top 100--he'd be in the top 30 but for the Toledo game, where he picked up 5 fouls in under 17 minutes, and his average over the past 7 games would be 12th. St. Bonaventure is the only other school with 3 players in the top 50 (7th, 18th, and 47th) and no other schools have 4 players in the top 100. Of course, this doesn't mean they can't continue to play major minutes, or do so in a tournament setting--OU swept three decent mid-majors in three days to win the Gulf Coast Showcase in November. And Kampe does things--like pull his players off the foul line--to save their legs during games. His top players have always played a lot of minutes. Still, you have to wonder how far a team with so little depth can go. An ankle sprain for Moore, a case of Covid for Cain, and this team could be in trouble. Or maybe I'm too pessimistic--Zion Young has averaged over 6 points per game since missing the first 5 games of the year, and when Parrish got in foul trouble at Toledo, Blake Lampman stepped up and scored 18 points.
We might also note that OU's three point shooting has been way off this year--they currently rank #344 in percentage, even as they continue to take more than most teams. Moore is at 24.2%, down from 34.9% a year ago. Townsend is at 21.7%, down from 33.3%. Parrish is at 25%, down from 34.9%. And even Jamal Cain, an early leader for HL POY, is shooting just 30.6%, versus 37.7% in four years at Marquette. If these guys at all begin to revert to the norm, OU could be very tough. After this over-hyped but good start, anything less than a top-three finish will be a major disappointment--indeed, if one buys the hype, perhaps that can be said of anything less than top one finish.
7. Youngstown State. Record 7-4; NCSOS 339; NET 194; RPI 262.
Youngstown State has used the non-conference season to prove that they can do something that could serve them very well in conference play--beat bad teams. The teams they've beaten, which include one non-D1 opponent, are 14-51 against D-1 competition. Before the season began, I suggested that the Penguins, playing that very cushy schedule, could easily go 7-2 in non-conference play. And I think they would have, had their best player, Garrett Covington, not been hurt in the season's third game. That was the first game of YSU's hosted tournament, so they had to play the next two days without Covington, and narrowly lost to Niagara and SIUE. After that, they got 10 days to reset themselves, and proceeded to win 5 straight (against weak competition) before dropping their final non-conference game at West Virginia. That left the Penguins at 5-4 in non-con play, plus with road wins against Milwaukee and Green Bay in the December conference openers.
Tevin Olison, a grad transfer from NAIA Cumberland, has stepped up to average over 12 points, with three 20-point games; after a slow start to the season Dwayne Cohill, an oft-injured transfer from Dayton, has averaged 13.8 points and 5.6 rebounds over the last 5 games. YSU visits Detroit and Oakland this coming week, which should tell us much about their possibilities. My guess is that that 7th-place pre-season prediction is about right--they'll beat the bad (or perhaps, given it's the Horizon, I should say the "worst") teams, and lose to the not quite as awful teams.
8. UIC. Record 4-7; NCSOS 173; NET 274; RPI 281.
I'm glad the Titans got their road game at UIC out of the way early, because I think UIC could be a better team than they've let on. They led Dayton for the first 12 minutes of the second half, before a 7-minute scoring drought did them in. Similarly, they led Loyola for almost all of the first 27 minutes of the game. They nearly beat Oakland, and lost to DePaul in the final minute. UIC"s big problem has been the complete lack of an inside game, but that may be changing as 6-11 Marcus Larsen, a transfer from Incarnate Word who missed the team's first 7 games due to injury, starts to round into shape. Still, a second division finish looks likely.
9. Purdue-Fort Wayne. Record 5-5; NCSOS 338; NET 296; RPI 325.
Fort Wayne managed to eek out a .500 record in non-conference play, thanks to their game with Michigan being cancelled, and wins over D-3 Earlham and a trio of teams--Austin Peay, SE Missouri State, and Southeastern Louisiana--that are a combined 6-23 against D-1 competition. Losses at Minnesota and Florida Gulf Coast are no embarrassment, but a 21 point loss at SIUE and a loss to Western Michigan on a neutral floor are troubling. Ultimately, this year's Mastodons look a lot like last year's Mastodons--not a very good team, but a team with lots of three-point shooting that, if the shooters are hot, can shock anybody on any given night. Perhaps the most dangerous team likely to finish in the Horizon's bottom half.
10. Robert Morris. Record 2-9; NCSOS 30; NET 325; RPI 316.
Last year Bob Morris was a trendy first division pick in the pre-season, but the adjustment to the HL was harder than many thought, and the Colonials finished last in the conference. It's seems funny that just a year ago I could say that the Horizon was, for all its faults, a significantly better conference than the Northeast Conference from which RMU came. Whether that remains true I'm not so sure. Coach Andy Toole brought in a bunch of transfers who looked good on paper, but have almost uniformly disappointed. They've played a solid non-conference schedule and have had a bunch of injuries, but even factoring that in, I don't see RMU making any noise in the conference race.
11. Green Bay. Record 2-9; NCSOS 49; NET 323; RPI 300.
Green Bay is as bad as most figured they would be. It should be noted that they lost close ones--four points or less--to Indiana State, UNC-Greensboro, and Florida International. None of them are world beaters, but all have a NET on the right side of 200. So maybe there is hope. The Phoenix have got no juniors and just one senior on the roster. Wait til next year.
12. IUPUI. Record 1-10; NCSOS 336; NET 356; RPI 355.
Note that IUPUI has managed to go 0-10 against a D-1 schedule ranked 336th in the country (their lone win is over D-3 Spalding).
I think Oakland (based mainly on this year's non-conference season) and CSU (based mainly on being the defending champ and not screwing up royally in non-conference play) merit standing as the favorites. Detroit is as good a dark horse as anyone. I still fear Wright State and Northern Kentucky, but at this point I'd take the Titans over either. Milwaukee, Youngstown State, and maybe UIC can also fight for the middle of the pack.