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Post by Commissioner on Oct 5, 2014 20:35:01 GMT -5
Wright State 2014 Record: 10-6 Horizon (3rd place); 21-15 Overall (lost 2nd round of CIT) Returning Scoring 34.9% (9th); Returning Rebounding 30.3% (9th).
In the fall of 2012 Wright State was pretty much a consensus pick for last in Horizon pre-season polls. Instead, the Raiders surged to a 20 win season in which they reached the Horizon Tournament final and went on to the CBI, where they surprised Tulsa and Richmond before falling to eventual tourney champ Santa Clara.
After that surprising season, 2013-2014 was supposed to be Wright State’s year (at least WSU fans thought so (I thought a third place finish more likely) with a senior-laden team that included the top nine scorers from 2013, plus Butler transfer Chrishawn Hopkins. But the Raiders stumbled out of the gate, and against a creampuff non-conference schedule were just 5-7 (3-7 against D-I competition) by mid-December, including losses to North Carolina A&T and South Alabama. The Raiders eventually came around, winning 8 of 10 in the next month, although they didn’t win a road game until January 10. They finished the season third in conference play, and closed with six consecutive wins to again reach the Horizon final. Just when it appeared they might realize the lofty preseason predictions, the Raiders were ambushed by Milwaukee in the Horizon final, and had to settle for the CIT, where they lost to Ohio U. in the second round.
Unlike last season, this season the Raiders have been decimated by graduation. The Raiders lose their top scorer and rebounder AJ Pacher (11.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg), their best defensive player and #2 scorer Cole Darling (8.5 ppg), their #3 & 4 scorers Miles Dixon (8.5 ppg, 2.1 apg) and Jerran Young (7.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg), and their leader in minutes played, Matt Vest (7.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg). Then center Tavares Sledge (2.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg) got himself booted from the team this fall for unspecified rules violations. So it should be a grim season on the edge of Dayton, right?
Well, perhaps not. It’s fun to be a Raider because everybody gets to play. There are few coaches in the country who so regularly go deep into the bench as Billy Donlon. Even Darling and Pacher, both second team All-Conference players (Darling in 2013, Pacher last year) were basically high quality role players, rather than stars, in Donlon’s system. A plus side to this approach is that there are always experienced players to throw into the lineup, and newcomers are efficiently eased into minutes as they demonstrate the ability to handle them. True, the Raiders lose a higher percentage of scoring and rebounding than any other team in the league. But that fact notwithstanding, Wright has more experience than you might think for a team that suffered such heave losses, and with Donlon adding one of the league’s better recruiting classes, Wright State should again be competitive.
The key backcourt returnees are seniors Reggie Arceneaux, Kendall Griffin, and Hopkins. Arceneaux is a quick little guard who has been in and out of WSU’s starting lineup for three seasons now. Last year he played the fewest minutes of his three seasons, but also became a much more efficient player. He played much more under control than in the past, boosting his assist/turnover ratio and assists/minute totals, and emerging as a deadly shooter, hitting a league best 46.5% of his 3 point attempts and 91.9% from the foul line. Griffin is a strong defensive player, and Donlon likes defense. Hopkins was a bit of a disappointment last year but he did hit 44% of his three point efforts.
An important backcourt addition is 6-4 juco Joe Thomasson. Wright State’s strong recruiting class also includes three good high school guards. The problem is that Wright doesn’t need guards, it needs forwards. Thus on this guard-laden team the three—shooting guards Grant Evans and Grant Benzinger, and PG Justin Mitchell—will probably all play relatively minor roles. They’ve also got 5-10 sophomore point Mark Howell, who saw limited action in 20 games as a freshman.
In the forecourt, the loss of Sledge leaves the Raiders without much size. You can count on 6-6 junior JT Yoho to fill one of the forward spots, if he stays out of trouble (he’ll probably be suspended for a game or two to start the season after a recent DUI arrest). He’s a good three-point shooter, although his numbers were down last year, to 36.7% (and only 29.3 percent once conference play began) from 42.2% as a freshman. Yoho can get lazy on defense and isn’t a particularly strong rebounder, but he improved on both last year, and he can score.
The other spots are open, but WSU needs size and I look for Donlon to start 6-9 juco Michael Karena in the middle. The New Zealander’s numbers were not impressive last year–-just 4 points and 2.1 rebounds per game at South Plains JC—but he had some solid mid-major offers and a fair amount of high major interest, so scouts obviously see something in him that doesn’t show in the stats. Besides, Donlon really doesn’t have any other options. Karena averaged less than 10 minutes per game at South Plains, however, and with Sledge gone, he’ll be asked for a lot more time than that. We’ll see if he’s up to it. Donlon also has 6-7 soph Steve Davis, who started twice last season, but Davis shot just 34% and really ought to be backing up Yoho. He’s not the answer to the lack of size in the middle. Beyond Yoho, Karena, and Steve Davis, Donlon will have to look to freshmen. Rod Davis, a 6-8, 225 lb. forward from Florida, is probably the best of the lot and likely to play a major role off the bench. In an ideal world they might redshirt skinny 6-9, 210 lb. Parker Ernsthausen, out of Dayton, but despite his skinny frame he’s got talent and they may feel they need him this year. A third big freshman, 6-9, 240 lb. Zach Lett, is more of a true center but lacks the skill set of the other two and is unlikely to contribute much as a freshman.
Thomasson may be the key for WSU. Out of high school he originally verbaled to Oklahoma State, but later switched to WSU. He failed to qualify and Donlon stashed him out at little known State Fair CC, where he put up big numbers and was ranked as the #48 juco player in the nation by 247 Sports (CBS). He should be an impact player. If he steps in like the guy once recruited by Oklahoma State and Missouri, WSU could be a contender, too. My guess is Donlon will use a three guard lineup with Thomasson starting along with Griffin and Arceneaux at the point. Hopkins will get 20 minutes plus while backing up all three. All four are can play a competent point, and Wright State won’t turn it over much.
That’ll leave Yoho backed by Davis at forward, with Karena at center, with one or more of the freshmen – probably Rod Davis—to back him up. The freshman guards will get some minutes, too. At times we’ll probably see four guards on the floor.
Donlon always goes deep into the bench and uses lots of lineup combos. His teams are also marked by tenacious perimeter defense. I don’t see that changing. Another trademark of the Donlon era is soft non-conference schedules, and that isn’t changing either – the Raiders have just 3 games against teams that finished above 150 in RPI last year, and two of those are league arranged games against Belmont. Don’t knock it, though. The non-conference schedule will give them a chance to work the new guys in and pad win totals. They’re in that pack of teams with Detroit, Valpo, and probably Milwaukee and Oakland, that will battle for spots 3 through 7 in the final standings. A respectable conference showing – say 7-9 - could assure the Raiders enough wins for a CBI or CIT bid at season’s end, given that soft non-con schedule.
Probable Starters G – 5-9 senior Reggie Arceneaux (7.1 ppg, 2.2 apg, .465 3P%) G – 6-4 senior Kendall Griffin (5.1 ppg, 2.1 apg). G – 6-4 junior Joe Thomasson (17.4 ppg, 6.2 apg at State Fair CC) F – 6-6 junior JT Yoho (7.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, .367 3P% C - 6-9 junior Michael Karena (4 ppg, 2.1 rpg at South Plains JC)
Other Key Players G – 6-2 senior Chrishawn Hopkins (5.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, .441 FG %) F – 6-7 soph Steve Davis (2.7 ppg) F – 6-8 freshman Rod Davis
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Post by parkerj on Oct 6, 2014 9:11:28 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 6, 2014 12:12:28 GMT -5
From the preview: "Mondy had a knack for forcing turnovers, leading three different conferences in steals per game throughout his career." That's a great trivia question. I'd bet my house he's the first player to lead three different conferences in steals. I wonder, though, if there's ever been a player who led three different conferences in any statistical category.
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Post by parkerj on Oct 7, 2014 10:53:32 GMT -5
From the preview: "Mondy had a knack for forcing turnovers, leading three different conferences in steals per game throughout his career." That's a great trivia question. I'd bet my house he's the first player to lead three different conferences in steals. I wonder, though, if there's ever been a player who led three different conferences in any statistical category. Haha, yeah I thought that was pretty cool. At first I had read that he was the nation's leader in total steals one of those years, but Basketball Reference disagreed with that. I have no idea. Given that the graduate transfer is a relatively new phenomenon, it'd probably take a situation like Mondy's or a guy transferring to play better competition two times
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Post by parkerj on Oct 7, 2014 10:56:15 GMT -5
Probable StartersC - 6-9 junior Michael Karena (4 ppg, 2.1 rpg at South Plains JC) Huh, so that's how you dealt with their size issues...I feel like none of the options make any sense
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Post by motorcitysam on Oct 7, 2014 11:15:36 GMT -5
Probable StartersC - 6-9 junior Michael Karena (4 ppg, 2.1 rpg at South Plains JC) Huh, so that's how you dealt with their size issues...I feel like none of the options make any sense I think Karena is going to be a contributor in the HL. There are question marks about him, but he is very athletic. His junior year at South Plains he played behind several front court players who ended up D1 schools including SMU and DePaul. His sophomore year was derailed by a bad ankle injury early in the season, and it seems as if he never got back into the flow. Tubby Smith at Texas Tech liked Karena enough to have him on campus for unofficial visits, and Iowa was taking a hard look at him before he got hurt. He maintained a lot of mid major interest through the year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he's going to have an impact, despite his pedestrian JUCO stats.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 8, 2014 8:29:45 GMT -5
Youngstown State 2014 Record: Horizon: 6-10 (T 7th); Overall 15-17 Returns 40.7% of scoring (8th); 54.4% or rebounding (7th)
I have a confession to make. The kind of deep, dark secret normally saved for, well, the confessional: I feel sorry for Jerry Slocum, and I kinda like the guy. There, I’ve said it.
OK, back from the “Hail Marys.” I know the criticisms of Slocum as a game coach (such as losing to Oakland in last year’s Horizon tournament on an inexcusable coaching blunder); as a team coach (such as when Marcus Keene broke Ryan Weber’s nose last year with a punch in practice); and as a grouch (I’ve never seen a shot of him smiling and yes, I recall his churlish response when little-used freshman Gabriel Dos Santos scored in the final seconds of a rout in Youngstown two seasons ago). Well, hey, I recall Eli Holman punching out some fellow students in a bar. Who wouldn’t be a bit grouchy when you’re losing by 40, even if it is a bit unfair to be angry at an 18 year old getting a rare chance to play for, well, playing? What coach doesn’t make game mistakes now and then? At least he’s not having to visit the county lockup regularly, like the coach at one Horizon school in Ohio.
Let’s be honest - Slocum has a nearly impossible task at YSU; certainly the toughest job in the league. He’s got to recruit kids to a small city that probably has a worse reputation, and less scenery, than Detroit. The University has no particular academic reputation, no standout programs to attract bright young kids. His is the only Horizon school where basketball is not the primary sport, and indeed football dominates the entire Mahoning Valley community. The school has no basketball tradition to draw on at all, at least not since being a small college power in the 1960s. In the four years immediately proceeding Slocum’s arrival, YSU had won a total of 27 games, losing 86 (and at least 20 all four seasons). And Slocum himself is 62 years old—the odds of him getting a better coaching job, even if he were to rip off back-to-back Horizon titles, are virtually nil. In fact, no one who has been head coach of the Penguins has ever gotten another D-I head coaching job, and this is a program that started in 1927. So this is it for the renaissance man from tiny King’s College, who dutifully toiled away at the small college level for three decades before getting a chance at DI. Even the school’s official web bio admits that what marks Slocum’s tenure is “patience, determination and resiliency,” which is another way of saying, “don’t blame this guy, our program sucks.”
And in fact, with patience, determination, and resiliency, Slocum has slowly, slowly made progress. The back-to-back winning seasons in 2012 and 2013 were YSU’s first since the 1983-1985 seasons. It’s 2013 CIT bid was it’s first since joining D-I in 1981. And he has slowly but steadily improved the caliber of recruit going to YSU, opening pipelines to Florida and the Detroit area.
And with that background we come to the first season in the post-Kendrick Perry era. Perry is the greatest player in Penguin history, and that’s not a loss this program can take lightly. YSU also lost forward Kamren Belin (11.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg) to graduation. But at least those losses were expected. The unexpected was the loss of guard Ryan Weber, who understandably decided to transfer after his teamnonmate Keene broke his nose. Weber was coming into his own at the time of the incident – in the previous three games he had scored 59 points on 19 of 36 shooting. He missed a few games and had a couple rough games when he first came back, but closed the season by averaging 19 ppg in his last 4 games. But after the season ended, he wasted little time in transferring to Ball State, a big blow to YSU’s future.
And yet, strangely, I’m a bit bullish on Youngstown State this year. Let me add a quick qualifier – “bullish” in a relative sense. I’d still have to pick YSU to finish 8th (which seems to be the consensus of the professional prognosticators), just because I’m not sure who’ll they’ll beat out other than UIC. But I’m pretty sure they will beat out someone to finish higher than 8th,, and I may be alone in not being shocked by the idea of a top 5 finish. I just think they are likely to be better than most seem to think. First, they have some real good recruits who could help out right away. But mainly, the Penguins have two veteran players I really like.
The first is junior forward Bobby Hain, one of the Florida boys that Slocum has been getting with some regularity. Last year Hain averaged 11.1 points and 7.7 rebounds on the season, but his numbers in conference play were even better, at 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds. He shot 50.9% for the year and 53% in conference play. He is remarkably sure-handed, with the fewest turnovers per minute played of any big man (by which I mean center or power forward) in the league. With Oakland’s Corey Petros and Green Bay’s Jordan Fouse, he was one of three big men in the league with more assists than turnovers. As a freshman, Hain showed talent but was inconsistent, as summed up in the season’s first two games, in which he had 19 points and 11 rebounds against George Washington, followed by 0 and 0 against Georgia; and in the season’s last two games, in which he had 11 points in the first round of the CIT, and 0 in the second round. Last year, however, he found that consistency, scoring between 10 and 18 points in 17 of YSU’s final 20 games, and also grabbing at least 5 rebounds in 17 of those 20 contests. He averaged 10.9 rebounds in the season’s final 10 games, and turned seven “double-doubles,” more than any Horizon player except Petros. With the team’s top three scorers gone, Hain will carry the offensive load, and could be poised for a monster season.
The other player I like is senior point guard DJ Cole. How good is Cole? He’s the guy who pushed Kendrick Perry out of the point guard slot (or, more pessimistically but perhaps more realistically, the guy whose development allowed Kendrick Perry to move to the wing). Last season Cole built on a solid sophomore campaign by improving his numbers in pretty much every category—points, assists, rebounds, steals, turnovers, and mostly shooting percentage, from inside the arc, from three points, and from the stripe. In conference play, Cole hit a blistering 47% of his three point attempts, was second in assists (to Kahlil Felder) at 5.3 per game, and tied with Felder and Charlie Lee for the best assist/turnover ratio in the conference. Last year, with Perry, Belin, and Weber to handle the scoring, Cole still averaged 8.3 ppg. I think he’s capable of putting quite a few more points on the board this year.
The rest of the lineup isn’t nearly so impressive, but it’s not so empty as some seem to think. For the #2 guard, Slocum can choose from Marcus “floats like a butterfly, stings at the Beeghly” Keene, or juco additions Osandai Vaughn and Shaun Stewart. Keene was a nice recruit for YSU out of Warren, Texas, a suburb of San Antonio, where he averaged 25 points as a senior, with his repeated late game heroics causing local papers to coin the phrase “Keenesanity!” His diminutive size (5’8” as a junior) made him available, and the fact that he grew a couple inches as a senior was icing on the cake. Keene started well, averaging over 10 points per game through November, including 20 against Massachusetts. But Keene’s playing time was already dropping fast by the time he had his last big game, a 14 point effort at St. John’s in late December. By late January, in the 5 games prior to punching out Weber, he had played just 33 minutes total, scoring 11 points. After the Weber incident, he was suspended for the season.
Given Keene’s falling stock last season, I have to give the edge to one of the jucos, probably Stewart. Stewart signed with North Carolina A&T out of high school, and played in 12 games, averaging 1.9 points, as a freshman. That doesn't scream "Horizon League starter," but Stewart moved last season to Cloud (Ks.) CC, where he had a huge year, averaging 21.7 points and nearly 6 rebounds. Granted juco ain’t D-I, but Stewart can score. Vaughn, however, is an option, too – he averaged over 19 ppg at Cape Fear CC last season. Jalon Plummer, a 6-5 sophomore from Romulus, is a deep option on the bench.
Meanwhile, look for Ferndale’s Shawn Amiker, another one of Slocum’s Michigan recruits, to start at the wing. Amiker is a slasher, a deadly finisher when he gets to the rim. He’s not a three point shooter (just 8 attempts last season) and not an especially good ball handler. Amiker averaged under 6 points last season, but has shown the ability to score on occasion, with 20 and 25 point games last season.
At the other forward, Slocum is likely to go with one of two talented freshmen from Florida, 6-8, 200 lb. Bryce Nickels, or 6-7, 205 lb. Sidney Umude. Both players were recruiting coups for Slocum, and they would both see plenty of action even if Slocum had other options. Nickels chose YSU over offers from Georgia Tech and George Mason; Umude picked the Penguins over Murray State, Louisiana Tech, and a host of other mid-majors. ESPN rated them both as 3-star recruits. Nickels is a bit more polished and I think will get the starting role, but that will be decided in practice in the next few weeks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see either perform at the level that Valpo’s Alec Peters did last year, and that was quite good. (They are both more inside players than Peters, though). For bench help (or if it turns out both freshman flop), Slocum can call on senior Fletcher Larson, who averaged 12 minutes a game last season.
It's interesting to me how much this year's YSU and Oakland teams are alike. Each features a strong point guard (the league's top two last year in assists) and post player (#1 & 3 last year in rebounds, averaging 11 to 13 points). Each has an adequate veteran to put into the #3 slot. OU hopes St. John's transfer Matt Hooper will score from the shooting guard position; YSU has a couple of high scoring jucos it will try there. OU hopes at least one of the upperclassman forwards, McCune or Hill, will deliver, while YSU relies on a couple of well-regarded freshmen to fill that slot. Overall YSU is a bit weaker among the starters, but has a touch more depth.
In the end, I kinda like this YSU team, at least relative to most other observers. It’s got lots of question marks, but pretty much every Horizon team does this year. I don’t know if Slocum can get the offensive production he wants out of the jucos or Keene. I don’t know if Umude or Nickels are ready to produce as freshmen. But at least Slocum has options. And if he’s a bit thin up front, well, Slocum never goes deep into the bench anyway.
Wish Slocum luck and remember, somebody has to be the head basketball coach at Youngstown State: there but for the grace of God go you. Besides, if you can’t wish good luck to a program that has never threatened anybody in the Horizon, who can you send off with well wishes?
Probable Starters PG – 5-11 senior DJ Cole (8.3 ppg, 4.6 apg; .377 3P%) SG – 6-0 junior Shaun Stewart (21.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.1 apg at Cloud CC) SF – 6-5 senior Shawn Amiker (5.6 ppg, .611 FG%) PF – 6-10 junior Bobby Hain (11.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, .509 FG%) PF - 6-8 freshman Bryce Nickels
Other Key Players G – 5-11 sophomore Marcus Keene (6.5 ppg, 2.2 apg) G – 6-4 sophomore Osandai Vaughn (19.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg at Cape Fear CC) PF – 6-7 freshman Sidney Umude PF/C – 6-8 senior Fletcher Larson (1.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg)
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Post by motorcitysam on Oct 8, 2014 14:45:36 GMT -5
Oakland2014: Horizon 7-9 (T-5th); Overall 13-20. Returns 50.1% of scoring (5th); 68.9% of rebounding (2nd) Except for the loser of the Hill/McCune battle (or Williams, if Hill and McCune both start), OU’s bench essentially consists of what were, for the most part, lightly recruited freshmen. Jalen Hayes, an injury RS freshman, is the best of the bunch and likely to see considerable time at forward. In fact, don’t be shocked if he grabs the starting spot away from Hill and McCune. Femi Olujobi is a freshman forward from Long Island, a modestly hot prospect at one time who wasn’t much recruited after a knee injury and then a broken tibia in high school. OU hopes that those injuries made Olujobi overlooked diamond. At center, they’ll hope 6-10 RS freshman Artis Cleveland is ready, but he’s still a project. Cleveland originally signed with Mississippi Valley State but transferred to OU before ever playing there. At guard, redshirt freshmen Nick Daniels and Collin Weaver will be called on when Felder and Hooper, respectively, need a blow. Weaver’s supposed to be a three-point specialist, and, as with Bader, OU was his only D-I offer. We’ll see if lightning strikes twice. Probable 2015 starters:PG – 5-9 sophomore Kahlil Felder (9.5 ppg, 6.4 apg, 3.9 rpg) SG – 6-6 RS junior Max Hooper (3.2 ppg for St. John’s). F - 6-6 RS senior Ralph Hill (2.5 ppg) F – 6-6 senior Dante Williams (7.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg) C – 6-10 senior Corey Petros (13.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg) Other Key Players:F – 6-8 junior Tommie McCune (5.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg) F - 6-7 RS Freshman Jalen Hayes F- 6-8 freshman Femi Olujobi C – 6-10 RS freshman Artis Cleveland G- 6-3 RS freshman Collin Weaver G – 6-1 RS freshman Nick Daniels I'm reading on social media that Nick Daniels broke his foot again. Poor guy.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 13, 2014 7:47:36 GMT -5
Detroit 2014: 6-10 (7th place) Horizon; 13-19 overall Returns 74.1% of scoring (1st); 60.1% of rebounding (4th)
The Titans preview is always the hardest, because most readers are already pretty familiar with the Titans. I try to think of something to say that might be new to Titan fans. So I'll start this year with a little general talk about how much one should reasonable expect a team to improve. The Titans were, after all, just 13-19 last year, 6-10 in conference. While hopes are high this season, the Titans need to improve a lot just to contend. Leaving aside the particulars of this team, how likely is that?
These are the 25 biggest improvements in overall record, and then in conference play, in the Horizon since 2000:
Overall Improvement 1. Milwaukee 2014: 8-24 to 21-14: +11.5 2. Detroit 2010: 7-23 to 20-14: + 11 3. Cleveland State 2008: 10-21 to 21-13: + 9.5 3. Cleveland State 2011: 16-17 to 27-9: + 9.5 5. Loyola 2002: 7-21 to 17-13: + 9 6. Green Bay 2004: 10-20 to 17-11: + 8 6. UIC 2013: 8-22 to 17-15: + 8 8. Wright State 2007: 13-15 to 23-10: +7.5 8. Butler 2007: 20-13 to 29-7: +7.5 8. Wright State 2013: 13-19 to 21-12: + 7.5 8. Loyola 2013: 7-23 to 15-16: + 7.5 12. Green Bay 2014: 18-15 to 24-7: + 7 13. Wright State 2001: 11-17 to 18-11: +6.5 13. Milwaukee 2003: 16-13 to 24-8: + 6.5 13. Cleveland State 2005: 4-25 to 9-17: +6.5 13. Valparaiso 2011: 15-17 to 23-12: +6.5 13. Youngstown State 2012: 9-21 to 16-15: +6.5 13. Cleveland State 2014: 14-18 to 21-12: + 6.5 19. Milwaukee 2000: 8-19 to 15-14: +6 19. UIC 2002: 11-17 to 20-14: + 6 19. Loyola 2006: 13-17 to 19-11: +6 22. Milwaukee 2005: 20-11 to 26-6:+5.5 22. Youngstown State 2007: 7-21 to 14-17: + 5.5 22. Milwaukee 2008: 9-22 to 14-16: +5.5 22. Green Bay 2009: 15-15 to 22-11: +5.5 22. Valparaiso 2010: 9-22 to 15-17: +5.5
Improvement in Conference Play 1. Cleveland State 2008: 3-13 to 12-6: +8 1. Youngstown State 2012: 2-16 to 10-8: +8 3. Green Bay 2004: 4-12 to 11-5: +7 3. Detroit 2010: 2-16 to 9-9: +7 3. Cleveland State 2014: 5-11 to 12-4: + 7 6. Loyola 2002: 2-12 to 9-7: + 6 6. Wright State 2004: 4-12 to 10-6: +6 6. Cleveland State 2005: 0-16 to 6-10: +6 9. Wright State 2007: 8-8 to 13-3: +5 9. Valparaiso 2010: 5-13 to 10-8: +5 9. UIC 2013: 3-15 to 7-9: + 5 9. Loyola 2013: 1-17 to 5-11: + 5 13. Loyola 2005: 4-12 to 8-8: +4 13. Butler 2006: 7-9 to 11-5: +4 13. Green Bay 2009: 9-9 to 13-5: +4 13. Wright State 2013: 7-11 to 10-6: + 4 13. Green Bay 2014: 10-6 to 14-2: + 4 13. Milwaukee 2014: 3-13 to 7-9: + 4 19. Cleveland State 2000: 6-8 to 9-5: +3 19. UIC 2000: 2-12 to 5-9: +3 19. Milwaukee 2002: 7-7 to 11-5: +3 19. Youngstown State 2007: 4-12 to 7-9: +3 19. Butler 2010: 15-3 to 18-0: +3 19. Milwaukee 2011: 10-8 to 13-5: +3 19. Cleveland State 2011: 10-8 to 13-5: +3
Some observations: • Combining the two lists, there are 34 teams total, or about 2 teams a year that improve by at least 5.5 games overall or 3 games in conference play. About half those teams had records better than last year’s Titans in the year before their improvement. • That means that there are 17 teams - just over one per season - that improved by both 5.5 games overall and 3 games in conference in one year. • A three game improvement in conference would put the Titans at just 9-9. A five and a half game overall improvement would leave the Titans at 19-14 on the season. While obviously the Titans could be better, that latter number strikes me as a pretty realistic top assessment. I do think the Titans could be 4-5 games better in conference play. • No team appears on a list in consecutive years, except for Valpo, which went from 9-22 overall in 2009 to 15-17 in 2010 and to 23-12 in 2011. That bodes poorly for those hoping for better records from Milwaukee, Cleveland State, and Green Bay, which each appeared on both lists last season. Of course, Green Bay doesn’t need to get better to win it all. • Of 23 teams that improved by more than 5 games overall between 2000 and 2013, only 8 improved at all the following season. The biggest such improvement was 6.5 games by Valpo in 2011. Cleveland State improved by 3.5 games in 2009; UIC by 3 games in 2003; Milwaukee by 2.5 games in 2009; Butler by 2 games in 2008; Loyola by 1 game in 2007; YSU in 2013 and Milwaukee in 2001 by just half a game. • Of 22 teams that improved by 3 or more games in conference play, only four -Valpo in 2011, Butler in 2007, Milwaukee in 2003 (all two games better), and Detroit in 2010 (+1) improved again the next season. Recognizing that each team is different, these last three bullets are more reasons I am not high on Milwaukee this year. Teams that improve as Milwaukee did last year rarely improve their record again the next season. • Improvement of 5 or more games in conference, the minimum I think the Titans would need to have a shot at the regular season title, has occurred on average two to three times every 3 years (12 times in 15 years total). It happened once last year, twice in 2013, and once in 2012. • In the 8 seasons included in which the league has had 9 teams playing 16 conference games, the league champ has averaged 13 wins. Reaching 13 conference wins would require a 7 game improvement, which has occurred just 5 times in the 15 years – but three times in the last five seasons. • The Titans would need to improve by 7 wins overall, or a minimum of 6.5 games, to get to 20 wins. That has happened 18 times in the 15 seasons, but 5 times in the last two seasons.
Sum that all up, it seems likely but by no means certain that one Horizon team will probably put up that type of 3 game improvement in conference, and 7 games overall, in 2015. If I were to name the Horizon team most likely to show that type of improvement, it would have to be Detroit, probably followed by Valpo. So that’s good. But for the Titans to be that team, several players will have to step up.
Detroit loses 4 seniors from last year’s 7th place team, including its top two rebounders. The most important loss is forward Evan Bruinsma (12.5 points, 7.7 rebounds). Center Ugochukwu Njoku was also a contributor this year, averaging just 4.1 points but 5.8 rebounds. Jermaine Lippert started a few games but averaged just 9 minutes and 1.8 points per game, and Olumide Solanke rarely played. You can see from Bruinsma's and Njoku's numbers that the Titans have a lot of rebounding to replace, and Bruinsma was the team's only reliable scorer after Juwan Howard. But I was a bit surprised to see, when I calculated the figures, that the Titans actually have a higher percentage of scoring returning than any other Horizon team (and a lot more than any team except Green Bay), and a higher combined scoring/rebounding percentage than any team except for Green Bay. And the Titans have as much incoming talent as any team in the league. This explains why most preseason publications are slating the Titans for the top 4 in the league (six of eight so far have placed the Titans 3rd or 4th).
But the Titans’ talent does not configure neatly. Detroit has a slew of combo guards, guard/forwards, and forward/guards, but no classic point guard and not much bulk in the front line. Both a look at the roster, and the word filtering out of Titans practices suggest that Detroit is aiming to play a fast, run and gun style that takes advantage of their raw talent and the squad’s depth. But such small teams typically rely on high shooting percentages to make it work, and Detroit was not a good shooting team last year, finishing dead last in the Horizon in three point shooting and overall shooting percentage, and ahead only of last place UIC in 2 point shooting percentage. Furthermore, UD's highest percentage shooters were the graduates Lippert, Njoku, and Bruinsma. And Coach Ray McCallum has tended to favor teams with a more classic lineup, including a big, true center when possible- I don't know if he's ever really had the small, run and shoot team. In the end, the Titans probably have the least predictable lineup in the Horizon, and it will be a challenge for the coaches to find the right mix from a talented bunch.
The Titans got a little head start on finding the right mix with a 4-game trip to Canada this summer, where the Titans won all 4 games, if not with ease, then without a great deal of drama. The Titans experimented with numerous lineups on the trip so it didn’t give us a huge idea of what the coaches might be thinking, beyond our own observations of who did what.
The one given for the Titans is Juwan Howard, who averaged 18.3 points last season. Howard is the only player who is among the top 10 returning conference players in points, rebounds, and assists per game. He and Green Bay’s Jordan Fouse are the only two among the top 10 returning players in both blocks and steals. After Kiefer Sykes, Howard is the leading preseason contender for Player of the Year. He's the rock, and a good one to build around.
The Titans’ other returning starters are sophomore guards Jarod Williams and Matthew Grant. Entering the season, I rank Williams as the surest things on the Titans after Howard. Williams cracked the starting lineup 4 games in to last season, and went on to be selected to the Horizon All-Freshman team. Watching the Titans’ Canada games on TV, I thought Williams looked especially good. He seemed confident that he could do what he wanted to do when he wanted to do it, and asserted himself as the team’s floor general. Williams averaged 12.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on the trip, while shooting 57% from the floor. His running mate Grant moved into the starting lineup midway through last season, giving the Titans a starting backcourt of true freshmen for the first time in over 30 years. He is the Titans top returning scorer (7.9 ppg) after Howard.
I won’t be at all surprised, however, if junior Carlton Brundidge gets the nod to start with Williams. A top 100 recruit in high school, “CB” fell behind Trey Burke at Michigan, and then transferred to Detroit after his freshman year. Last year CB’s season went through three stages. Through the Titans first 8 games, CB averaged 10.9 ppg, but he took over 10 shots a game to do it, hitting just 35% from the floor. I’m not a big fan of pop psychiatry, but during this period, my impression was that CB was pressing, putting too much pressure on himself to pick of the slack for the semi-expected early departure of Ray McCallum and the unexpected early departure of Jason Calliste, and perhaps to prove himself as that “top 100” recruit who had signed with Michigan. After that, although CB stayed in the starting lineup a few more games, his minutes were cut and he entered phase two of the season. Over the next 15 games, he seemed totally out of sorts, uncertain and tentative. He shot a lot less, and averaged just 5.6 points per game, shooting under 33% and having his four highest turnover games of the season. During the last 5 games of this phase, he scored a total of just 15 points on 6 of 24 shooting. This phase ended against UIC, when he scored 2 points in a season low 11 minutes of action. Two nights later CB scored 15 points in an 86-78 loss to Cleveland State, launching the final segment of his season. Over the final 9 games, CB averaged 9 points on fewer than 6 shots per game, hitting 52% from the field. He also knocked down his last 18 free throw attempts of the season. This strong finish, and his new slimmed down look, gives me hope Carlton has his groove back. Brundidge does most of his damage driving through traffic in the lane, but to do that effectively he needs to connect on a higher percentage of three pointers (.286 last year). Otherwise defenders back a half step off him and Brundidge’s first step is not quick enough to pass that first man. He also needs to hit free throws – he gets to the line far more than the other Titan guards, but until his late spurt, his free throw percentage last season was hovering below 60 percent. Whoever starts at the 2-guard, both Grant and Brundidge will get major minutes.
To go with the three combo guards, the Titans have a slew of #2/#3 players. Senior Brandan Kearney was a national top-150 recruit out of high school. His defense helped him break into Michigan State’s rotation late in his freshman season. As a sophomore, he was averaging 17 minutes a game, but was apparently dissatisfied with his lack of an offensive role and decided to transfer mid-season. But as I’ve noted elsewhere, the mid-season transfer is a tough move – you come in when everybody else has been playing in games for 6 weeks, putting you a step behind, and by the time the rust is off the season is almost over. Kearney joined Arizona State last December but averaged just 6 minutes a game, in part due to the surprisingly strong play of freshman Egor Koulechov and juco transfer (and brief Titan verbal commit) Shaq McKissic. Disillusioned, Kearney returned to Detroit. At 6-6, with a good three point shot and enough ball-handling ability to play the point in a pinch, Kearney could be a match-up nightmare in the Horizon. But mainly, expect Kearney to be called on to shut down the other big shooting guards/wings in the league, such as OU’s Max Hooper, Wright State’s Joe Thomasson, and Milwaukee’s Austin Arians.
Red shirt freshman Paris Bass is a 6-7 G/F with a 7 foot wingspan, who handles the ball well enough there’s been some talk of him playing the point (though that is unlikely). Bass was considered a run-of-the-mill mid-major prospect as his senior year began, but he just kept growing as a senior and began dominating play in the spring semester. Still, it was thought that Bass, who was young for the Class of ’13, would likely go prep for a year to fill out his gangly frame and make sure his academics were in order. A big summer on the AAU circuit brought him a bunch of offers, including high mid-majors such as Rhode Island and Illinois State, and had high majors including UConn and Memphis eyeing him for their class of 2014. The word among mid-majors was to get him in 2013, because if he went prep for a year, he’d have high majors all over him for 2014. Detroit got him, but he ended up redshirting anyway. He’ll be good. The Sporting News has predicted him as Horizon Freshman of the Year. Of course TSN has also predicted the Titans to finish 8th, far and away the worst of any publication so far – so take the bitter with the sweet.
Also available is 6-5 junior Anton Wilson, who averaged 7 points per game last season while hitting 40% of his three-point attempts. Wilson was at one time a Rivals 150 recruit in high school, though his stock dropped as a senior. He’s a streak shooter, and how much he plays this year will depend on him knocking down the shots. When he’s on, he’s got a beautiful stroke. In December 6-7 Colorado transfer Chris Jenkins joins the Titans. Jenkins was red-shirted as a freshman, and then enrolled in school for a few days last fall before deciding to transfer. The result of those few fall classes in Boulder was to cost Jenkins a semester of eligibility – his transfer sit out year didn’t begin until spring semester. Jenkins was a first team All-Stater and a three star recruit at UD Jesuit high, but by the time he’s eligible in December it will be two and a half years without playing in regular season games. The staff is said to be very high on Jenkins, but we’ll say it again – that mid-season transfer is tough, and it will likely take Jenkins a while to reach his stride.
For classic forwards, besides Howard, the Titans have 6-6, 223 lb. senior Patick Onwenu, who averaged 4.3 points and 4 rebounds last season. Onwenu was very impressive in Canada, averaging 15.5 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in under 20 minutes per game, while shooting 57%. The Titans also landed both of Michigan’s 2014 first team Class A All-State forwards this year in 6-6, 231 lb. Aaron Foster Smith (23 points and 12 rebounds at Taylor Truman) and 6-6 242 lb. Jaleel Hogan (16.8 points, 13.6 rebounds at Mt. Pleasant). Both will have a chance to earn minutes right away. Foster-Smith has generally been a slightly higher rated prospect, but Hogan’s bulk may get him more playing time as a frosh. If Hogan played more above the rim, he’d be at Michigan State. Foster-Smith has a complete game.
Finally, the Titans have two skinny centers who should both get playing time. Patrick Ackerman is a 6-10 transfer from Penn State. Ackerman is tall but thin - he'll not provide a strong low post presence. 6-9 Youssoupha Kane joins the Titans from Western Nebraska CC, where he averaged 10 points and 8 rebounds. While both should get minutes, the Titans will often not have a center on the floor.
On paper, the talent is there, but most of these guys have not yet lived up to the scouting reports. Kearney, Wilson, and Brundidge were all Rivals 150 players in high school, but have yet to establish themselves as more than adequate bench players. Ackerman played just 83 minutes in two seasons at Penn State; Jenkins not at all in one at Colorado. I wouldn’t be surprised if the freshmen forwards get 10 or minutes a game this year, but I wouldn’t expect it. The redshirt frosh Bass will get PT, but we’ll have to see what he does with it. Onwenu probably won a starting spot with his performance in Canada, but he’s going to be asked to do quite a bit more than he’s done in the past.
For the Titans to make major improvement, the guards need to shoot better, especially from behind the arc. Brundidge actually has the 7th highest shooting percentage in conference play of returning Horizon players, but he shot just 28.6% from behind the line on the season. Grant, whose three point shot was supposed to be a strength, hit just 30.8% of the three-point attempts, and Williams was a dismal 24.5%. All three shot even worse on threes in conference play.
The Titans have players who will cause a lot of match up problems; they shoot free throws well; they have depth; they have Juwan Howard. Whether that’s enough to contend we will have to see. For now, put them in that mosh of teams (with Valpo, Oakland, Milwaukee, and Wright State) who will contend for spots 3-7 in the conference standings, with the Titans more likely near the top of that group.
Likely Starters: G - 6-2 soph Jarod Williams (7.7 points, 2.0 assists) G - 6-2 junior Carlton Brundidge (7.5 ppg). F - 6-6 senior Juwan Howard (18.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, .344 3P%; 83.9% FT) F – 6-6 senior Patrick Onwenu (4.3 ppg, 4 rpg) C - 6-10 junior Patrick Ackerman (transfer, Penn State)
Other Key Players G – 6-1 soph Matthew Grant (7.9 points) G/F – 6-7 RS freshman Paris Bass G – 6-6 senior Brandan Kearney (1.2 ppg at Arizona State) G/F – 6-7 RS sophomore Chris Jenkins (transfer, Colorado) G/F – 6-5 junior Anton Wilson (7.0 ppg; 40.2% 3P%)
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Post by parkerj on Oct 13, 2014 20:08:53 GMT -5
Very interesting info regarding the improvement of teams. I could definitely see detroit making a big jump with the return of a lot of its top players.
One thing that doesn't bode very well for you guys is that a lot of the top improvements have come from teams that recently changed coaches.
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Post by motorcitysam on Oct 13, 2014 20:20:16 GMT -5
Very interesting info regarding the improvement of teams. I could definitely see detroit making a big jump with the return of a lot of its top players. One thing that doesn't bode very well for you guys is that a lot of the top improvements have come from teams that recently changed coaches. That's true. On the other hand, Coach McCallum was the coach when Detroit make it's big jump on the above list, so we know he had led a team to a big turnaround before. We're counting on a lot of players with no or limited D1 experience. That's the big question mark, in my mind. Should be an interesting season, though.
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Post by motorcitysam on Oct 13, 2014 20:25:12 GMT -5
Excellent preview on the Titans, Commish. Appreciate all the research you did for it. Really interesting point about the returning scoring.
I think the team is going to be better as the year goes on, and will hopefully late season in time for the HL tournament.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 13, 2014 21:33:25 GMT -5
I don't normally pick an order of finish - I figure that's a fool's game. But this year I'll play the fool. At the Top:1. Green Bay - An easy pick. Even with the loss of Alec Brown, the Phoenix return more rebounding than any team in the league, and more scoring than any team but Detroit. They've got the league's best player in Sykes, its best defensive player in Fouse, and some good talent that should step up this year to fill the few graduations that occured. 2. Cleveland State - Before Sebastian Douglas succumbed to a career-ending knee injury, and Bryn Forbes to the sweet entreaties of Tom Izzo, CSU was a too-trendy pick to win the Horizon. Despite those losses, they should still be a pretty solid second. Anton Grady, Charlie Lee and Trey Lewis are three all-conference quality players. The Mosh PitTeams three through seven - maybe even 3 through 8 - really are a "pick 'em" in the Horizon. 3. Valparaiso - Earlier today I was feeling really optimistic about the Detroit and figuring what the heck, I'll pick them for third. It's not like anyone else has a whole lot better claim to it. But now I'm feeling pessimistic - that's what a few hours on a rainy day will do to ya sometimes. Valpo always seems to play a bit better than their personnel. Milwaukee fans seem to think I "hate" their team, but I don't at all. I hate Valpo, at least if by "hate" you mean what I think most fans really mean when they use the term - that is, I fear, respect, and really want to beat Valpo. It's a good rivalry. In an important respect, Valpo is quite a bit like Detroit: both teams are counting on players to improve a lot (Adekoya, Carter, Fernandez, Peters for Valpo; Williams, Grant, Brundidge, Onwenu for Detroit); on transfers to have an immediate impact (Nickerson for the Crusaders; Ackerman, Kearney, Jenkins for Detroit); and on freshman to solidify the bench (the Canadian guards for Valpo, the Michigan forwards for UD). That's a lot of question marks, but in each case I think there are real reasons to believe that that improvement will be forthcoming. 4. Detroit - My gut is feeling 5th right now, but I'll go with 4th as a good home town fan. Tomorrow morning they might be third again - or 6th. 5. Milwaukee - I'll be generous and put Milwaukee 5th. You see, it's not that I "hate" the Panthers. It's that when a team returns 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and the conference tournament, you feel obligated to explain why you're not picking them high. Athlon, Lindy's, ESPN, Blue Ribbon, TSN, and SI blogger Jay Parker all pick the Panthers for the second division, too. Why is that? The reason is that last year's season looks like a fluke, born of a cushy non-con schedule and a well-timed late season run. The stats tell us that Milwaukee was a bad shooting team (247th nationally in FG%), a bad rebounding team (266th in rebounding percentage), and a bad ballhandling team (269th in turnovers per possession). That they won with those numbers is a tribute to the Panthers. But it gives us reason to doubt that they'll be better, or even as good this year. They actually allowed more points than they scored even though they finished 21-14. That is really rare. When you point this kind of thing out, people get all huffy and talk about "the eye test." Well, the "eye test" is important (we'll come back to that shortly). But stats - at least when properly used and understood - are merely the contemporaneous, objective recording of people watching the game. And those objective recordings are, well, usually pretty objective. Someone says - to jump to another sport - "Mickey Tettleton hit a lot of home runs for the Tigers, but they were always with the basis empty," and you can look at the stats and see if that's true. Surprise - it's not. He hit more home runs with men on base than usual. Memory is often much less reliable than the contemporaneous records. People like to say "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics," but what they really mean is either a) the person using statistics doesn't know how to properly use them; or b) the speaker doesn't understand statistics; or c) the speaker understands he has been had and seeks to divert attention away from the evidence. And what about that "eye test"? Well yeah, it matters a lot. Statistics and the eye test usually work in tandem, frankly. When they don't, it's a tip to look deeper. What are you missing on the floor? What aren't the stats showing? The eye test is by no means always, or even usually, or even most of the time, superior. Give me the guy who made 46% of his three pointers with an ugly shot over the guy who just looked great shooting 27%. Give me the dull team with no turnovers or the team with "ooh" and "aah" passes and lots of turnovers. And if we want to talk "eye test" with Milwaukee last year, well, for a good 5 weeks, from mid-January until late February, they were probably the worst "eye test" team in the Horizon. I mean, they looked awful, going 3-7 and losing games by 24, 22, 19, 16, 15, and 13 points, and looking every bit as bad as those scores suggest. And after all that, another set of stats shows us that teams that improve by 11 games one year - as the Panthers did - usually slide back a bit the next year. There are reasons for that I won't go into here, but the astute observer can figure them out. And the Panthers did lose their top two scorers, so it's not like they had no serious losses. Phew. All that for the Panthers? Well, I wanted to get that stats stuff off my chest. They do have a trio of really nice players in Matt Tiby, Steve McWhorter, and Austin Arians, and they did win 20 games last year. They'll be OK. But they're not a top flight team. 6. Wright State. Don't quite know what to make of the Raiders, but they're really weak inside unless juco Michael Karena comes through. If they hadn't booted Tavares Sledge, I'd probably pick them ahead of Milwaukee. But they're also a good candidate for 8th. 7. Oakland. I was going to pick OU higher, but the injury to Nick Daniels, who is out until at least late November, and suspension of Artis Cleveland make me wonder. Daniels has the same injury as last year, and last year his 8 week recovery ended up being a full year out of action. Don't know when or if Cleveland returns - his suspension is "indefinite." This was already a thin team. I really like PG Kahlil Felder, and have to concede Corey Petros is a very effective presence in the middle. In fact, I've got them listed 7th, but I'm sitting here thinking they'll beat out Wright State. Just too lazy to change the order now. The Bottom:8. Youngstown State. Go Guins! 9. UIC. Everybody is picking them for last, so if recent history is any guide they'll mow down their non-con opponents and stay in the Horizon race until late. All-Conference First Team:Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay Juwan Howard, Detroit Corey Petros, Oakland Kahlil Felder, Oakland Anton Grady, Cleveland State Second Team:Bobby Hain, Youngstown State Alex Peters, Valparaiso Jordan Fouse, Green Bay Trey Lewis, Cleveland State Charlie Lee, Cleveland State Keep an Eye On: Greg Mays, Carrington Love, Green Bay; Steve McWhorter, Austin Arians, Matt Tiby, Milwaukee; Marc Brown, UIC; Vashil Fernandez, Keith Carter, Valparaiso; Jarod Williams, Carlton Brundidge, Detroit; Reggie Arceneaux, Chrishawn Hopkins, Joe Thomasson, Wright State; DJ Cole, Youngstown State; Marlin Mason, Cleveland State. All Defensive TeamJordan Fouse, Green Bay Brandan Kearney, Detroit Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay JJ Panoske, Milwaukee Charlie Lee, Cleveland State All Freshman TeamParis Bass, Detroit Bryce Nickels, Youngstown State Jalen Hayes, Oakland Rod Davis, Wright State Lance Whitaker, UIC
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Post by parkerj on Oct 13, 2014 22:27:15 GMT -5
Copycat
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