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Post by Commissioner on Aug 17, 2018 8:55:02 GMT -5
I'll start posting these probably in early September. Was doing a little research into our teams this week, and looking over team rosters, I don't think the HL will be quite as bad as I had at first thought.
Oakland, Milwaukee, and Detroit are the only 3 teams that clearly seem to have less talent than a year ago, and Detroit did so poorly with its talent that that may not matter. Unfortunately, not many teams obviously improved a bunch. But I think last year's top 3--NKU, Wright State, and UIC--should all be pretty good again. CSU and YSU are making some progress. IUPUI could be better than people think, and Green Bay should be a bit better.
You ever play a video game and immediately blow yourself up? Or blunder in the first few moves of a chess game? Or get wiped out 6-0, 6-1 in tennis? You have the feeling that you barely got warmed up, and you want to start again immediately? That's how I feel after the Bacari years. Even though this season looks pretty grim, I've rarely been so eager for a season to get underway. I want to start erasing the stain of the last two years immediately.
Note there is a separate thread, another annual, where I have begun collecting published predictions for the HL's 2018-19 season.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 3, 2018 17:41:13 GMT -5
It's Labor Day weekend. The college hoops season officially starts on November 6, which I 'm pretty sure is the earliest start date ever. Blue Ribbon is scheduled to be released next week, and I assume most of the other traditional publications--Athlon, Street & Smith's, etc. will also be out in the next 2-3 weeks. We'll start seeing some of the web sites as well, and then the traditional sports news networks. Here, I'll start publishing Horizon team previews every few days or so. I always end with the Titans, so this year I'll just go in the order of last year's finish, which puts the Titans last. ;-( Let's start, though, by simply reviewing the top returning Horizon players in individual stat categories. I'm using conference play only numbers, which smooths out most of the scheduling differences, eliminates games with non-DI teams, and probably better reflects where players were at the end of last season, especially mid-year transfers and freshmen. Scoring | Avg. | 1. Drew McDonald, NKU | 17.1 | 1. Sandy Cohen, GB | 17.1 | 3. Louden Love, WSU | 14.9 | 4. Marcus Ottey, UIC | 14.6 | 5. Tyree Appleby, CSU | 11.2 | 6. Josh McFolley, UD | 11.2 | 7. Stefan Kenic, CSU | 10.4 | 7. Kam Hankerson, GB | 10.4 | 9. Mark Hughes, WSU | 10.2 | 10. Tarkus Ferguson, UIC | 9.8 |
How's this for awful--the league lost 21 of its top 30 scorers last year--10 of them as transfers out or early departures to the pros.Rebounding | Avg. | 1. Drew McDonald, NKU | 10.6 | 2. Loudon Love, WSU | 10.6 | 3. Naz Bohannon, YSU | 9.0 | 4. Jordan Blount, UIC | 8.1 | 5. Evan Hall, IUPUI | 7.3 | 6. Tarkus Ferguson, UIC | 6.0 | 7. Sandy Cohen, GB | 5.7 | 8. Manny Patterson, GB | 5.1 | 9. Vance Johnson, UWM | 4.4 | 10. D.J. McCall, IUPUI | 4.1 |
Again, 21 of the top 30 from last year gone, incluidng 9 transfers/early departures.Assists | Avg. | 1. Tarkus Ferguson, UIC | 5.9 | 2. Tyree Appleby, CSU | 4.4 | 3. Nick Rogers, IUPUI | 3.1 | 3. Kasheem Thomas, CSU | 3.1 | 5. Kam Hankerson, GB | 3.0 | 6. Cole Gentry, WSU | 2.9 | 7. Mark Hughes, WSU | 2.9 | 8. Drew McDonald, NKU | 2.4 | 8. Sandy Cohen, GB | 2.4 | 10. Marcus Ottey, UIC | 2.2 |
17 of the top 30 in assists gone, including 8 transfers/early departures. Notice that Ferguson, Cohen, and McDonald are among the top 10 returnees in all 3 major stat categories.Blocks | Avg. | 1. Loudon Love, WSU | 1.2 | 2. Cole Long, UD | 1.1 | 3. Tarkus Ferguson, UIC | 1.1 | 4. Evan Hall, IUPUI | 0.9 | 5. Kam Hankerson, GB | 0.8 | 6. Jalen Tate, NKU | 0.7 | 6. Sandy Cohen, GB | 0.7 | 8. Drew McDonald, NKU | 0.5 | 8. Dantez Walton, NKU | 0.5 | 8. DJ McCall, IUPUI | 0.5 | 8. Marcus Ottey, UIC | 0.5 | 8. Vance Johnson UWM | 0.5 |
Wow, look who's #2. Long was #9 overall last year in the league--very commendable--but you can deduce from that that, here, too, a lot of league leaders are gone.Steals | Avg. | 1. Sandy Cohen, GB | 1.8 | 2. Cole Gentry, WSU | 1.6 | 3. Josh McFolley, UD | 1.5 | 4. Mark Hughes, WSU | 1.4 | 5. DJ McCall, IUPUI | 1.3 | 6. Jordan Blount, UIC | 1.3 | 7. Tyler Sharpe, NKU | 1.2 | 8. Jalen Tate, NKU | 1.2 | 8. Garrett Covington, YSU. | 1.2 | 10. Tyree Appleby, CSU | 1.1 |
FG Percentage | Pct. | 1. Loudon Love, WSU | .545 | 2. Marcus Ottey, UIC | .531 | 3. Jordan Blount, UIC | .508 | 4. Godwin Boahen, UIC | .482 | 5. Drew McDonald, NKU | .481 | 6. Sandy Cohen, GB | .478 | 7. Kam Hankerson, GB | .462 | 8. Josh McFolley, UD | .456 | 9. Jalen Tate, NKU | .456 | 10. Stefan Kenic, CSU | .442 |
3 Point FG Pct. | Pct. | 1. Godwin Boahen, UIC | .508 | 2. Marcus Ottey, UIC | .463 | 3. Tyler Sharpe, NKU | .438 | 4. Jaylen Minnett, IUPUI | .429 | 5. Kam Hankerson, GB | .412 | 6. Stefan Kenic, CSU | .397 | 7. Drew McDonald, NKU | .386 | 8.Sandy Cohen, GB | .384 | 9. Cole Gentry, WSU | .379 | 10. Josh McFolley, UD | .376 |
Free Throw Pct. | Pct. | 1. Marcus Ottey, UIC | .841 | 2. Mark Hughes, WSU | .837 | 3. Stefan Kenic, CSU | .817 | 4. Tyree Applebe, CSU | .806 | 5. Drew McDonald, NKU | .771 | 6. Kasheem Thomas, CSU | .745 | 7. Sandy Cohen, GB | .726 | 8. DJ McCall, IUPUI | .717 | 9. Tarkus Ferguson, UIC | .717 | 10. Jaylen Hall, WSU | .692 |
Josh McFolley shot .771 in conference play but did have enough attempts to qualify.Minutes | Avg. | 1. Sandy Cohen, GB | 33.4 | 2. Cole Gentry, WSU | 32.6 | 3. Drew McDonald, NKU | 32.2 | 4. Naz Bohannon, YSU | 31.9 | 5. Mark Hughes, WSU | 30.6 | 6. Tarkus Ferguson, UIC | 29.9 | 7. Loudon Love, WSU | 29.5 | 8. DJ McCall, IUPUI | 29.2 | 8. Marcus Ottey, UIC | 28.2 | 10. Kam Hankerson, GB | 26.8 |
22 of last year's top 30 in minutes played have left, including 7 who left early or transferred.
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 3, 2018 19:22:12 GMT -5
Good stuff, Commish.
That Tarkus Ferguson is a stat sheet stuffer.
Man, the conference lost a lot of production.
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Post by kevinudm on Sept 3, 2018 20:45:10 GMT -5
Commish, it's pretty amazing that you've listed nine categories for top returning players, 90 slots in total … and not a single player from Oakland U made the list. I've always been impressed with their coach Greg Kampe (reluctantly, but deservedly). But last year he had a lot of star power and underperformed. I'm curious to see how he does this year when he is seemingly starting from scratch.
I look forward to reading your team previews.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 6, 2018 20:12:23 GMT -5
First preview...
Northern Kentucky
2018: 22-10 Overall, RPI #111 15-3 Conference (1st place, lost in tournament quarterfinals) Lost first round NIT
Losses: Lavone Holland, 13.8 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.2 rpg, 34.8% 3Pt, 2nd Team All-Conference Carson Williams, 12.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 60.8% FG (transfer) Jordan Garnett, 6.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg Mason Faulkner, 5.6 ppg, 2.3 apg, 35.6% 3Pt (transfer) Jeff Garrett, 4.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg (transfer)
Returns: 44.2 % of minutes 46.3 % of points 45.7 % of rebounds John Brannen is building a powerhouse and positioning the Norse to be the next team to move up and out of the Horizon, if they choose to do so. The Norse have won 46 games in the past two years, with a regular season title and NIT bid last year, and a tournament title and corresponding NCAA bid in 2017. They play in the league’s nicest facility, the 9400 seat BB&T Arena, and last year drew an average of 4625 fans per game, second best in the conference. By allowing Cincinnati to use the BB&T last year during renovation of the Fifth-Third Arena in Cincinnati, the Norse won themselves a pair of home games with UC in the next four seasons—the type of games that are almost impossible for mid-majors to schedule any more. They're hosting their own MTE this year, and will end up with 8 home games in non-conference play.
But this year’s Norse also epitomize one of the difficulties mid-majors face these days—transfers. At the close of last season, NKU looked to lose just two players—all conference guard Lavone Holland and starting forward Jordan Garnett. But three transfers have since depleted the roster.
The most significant is Carson Williams, whose defection appears to have been quite unexpected. Williams, a 6-6, 230 lb. power forward, is a classic Horizon League player. He’s too small to play high major at the position that matches his skill set, but he’s very effective at this level. Kentucky’s Mr. Basketball in 2016, he was on the Horizon All-freshman team in 2017 and followed up with a similar season last year. For his career he has made a remarkable 60.5% of his field goal attempts, and is a good rebounder. Williams actually lost his starting spot late last season to Dantez Walton, but continued to play more minutes than Walton, and there was no reason to think he wouldn’t be a key player this season. But Williams asked for his release after the season ended, eventually moving over to Western Kentucky. I’m not sure he gains much if anything from the move. If he wants a return trip to the NCAAs, WKU’s CUSA is also a one-bid league these days, and probably a bit tougher to win. As noted, NKU is drawing good crowds, and will have a home game next year with UC. It’s facilities match those of any CUSA school. But the bug got in Williams’ ear, and he’s gone.
Williams departure might have opened more PT for redshirt senior Jeff Garrett, but Garrett (4.3 points, 3.3 rebounds in just 9 minutes per game) decided to take the grad-transfer option and leave—or rather, it appears that Brannen pushed him out. Garrett was Brannen’s first recruit at NKU, following him over from Alabama, where he’d spent his freshman year as a redshirt. Garrett has been a role player for NKU, but an effective one at times. Nevertheless, his playing time dropped late in the year and he did not play in the Norse’s NIT game at Louisville.
Finally, Mason Faulkner also left. A big-time scorer in high school (36 ppg as a senior) Faulkner never fully found his stride at NKU. Still, with Holland’s graduation he was heir apparent to be the starting point guard this year. But he’s dropping down to play at Western Carolina in the Southern Conference.
Transfers and early departures are walloping mid-majors around the country, but the Horizon was definitely hit hard. In addition to NKU’s loss of Williams (NKU’s #2 returning scorer and rebounder), Faulkner (top returning assist man), and Garrett, other clubs are also facing major losses:
Oakland: Isaiah Brock (top returning scorer and rebounder) Wright State: Everett Winchester (two-time freshman of the week) UIC: Dikembe Dixon (top returning scorer) Green Bay: Sukhjot Bains (16 minutes per game) IUPUI: TJ Henderson (top returning scorer, #2 returning assists) Milwaukee: Jeremiah Bell (top returning scorer, #3 returning assists, 2nd team All-Conference); Brock Stull (#2 returning scorer, #2 returning rebounder, top returning assists); Bryce Nze (#3 returning scorer, #1 returning rebounder); August Haas (#2 returning assists); Jeremy Johnson (averaged over 20 minutes for first 12 games, then was mysteriously shutdown—speculation illness) Youngstown State: Braun Harfield (#2 returning scorer, #3 returning rebounder, top returning assists); Devin Haygood (#2 returning rebounder); Tyree Robinson (#3 returning scorer); Jeremiah Ferguson (15 minutes per game) Cleveland State: Evan Clayborne (10 minutes per game) Detroit: Kameron Chatman (#1 returning scorer and rebounder, #3 returning assists, 2nd team All-Conference); Corey Allen (#2 returning scorer, rebounder, and assists); Jermaine Jackson, Jr. (10.7 ppg, top returning assists, All-freshman team); Jack Ballantyne (12 minutes per game); (the Titans also lose Tariiq Jones, but it appears he's just not up to the academic side of things, and may lose backup center Malik Eichler).
Putting it in the conference context, 4 of the top 5 “returning” scorers and three of the top 5 “returning” rebounders aren’t returning. Five teams prematurely lost their top returning scorer. I don’t know what the answer is for this, and there may be none. Kids have a right to play.
Anyway, for NKU the result is a team that will be thinner than anticipated, but still one of the favorites to win the conference.
A major reason for that will be center Drew McDonald (17 ppg, 9.6 rpg), two-time first team All-Conference selection. As noted above, 6-5, 210 lb. Dantez Walton actually took Carson Williams’ spot in the starting lineup late last year as a wing guard/forward. NKU is more active with Walton in the lineup than with Williams. 6-5 redshirt sophomore Jalen Tate should be at the small forward. Tate was selected last year to both the Horizon All-Freshman and All-Defense teams. Walton also has a rep as a good defensive player.
The early departures of Wiliams and Garrett will open time at small forward for onetime Titan signee Adrian Nelson. Losing Nelson was to me the most painful point of Bacari Alexander’s departure. To help McDonald and beef up the inside game, Brannen will hope to see improvement from 7-0 sophomore Chris Vogt, a 3-star recruit and Kentucky Mr. Basketball finalist in 2017. Vogt, however, played just 50 minutes last year, mainly against the Norse’s two non-DI opponents, Berea and Wilmington. Vogt is Kentucky’s all-time high school leader in blocked shots, and it would be nice for NKU to at least get 10 to 12 minutes of good defense out of him each game. Brannen also has Silas Adheke, a 6-9 juco from Nigeria. Adheke had offers from Kansas State and a bunch of MVC schools out of high school. He signed with Evansville, redshirting for a year, but then sought his release. Rather than sit a second year as a transfer, he went the juco route and will have three years of eligibility remaining. Despite his impressive physique and many offers, Adheke has not dominated either in high school (he averaged 8 points and 6 rebounds his final season) or in the juco ranks, so it will be interesting to see what he produces.
The biggest question for NKU will be at the point, where Holland averaged over 30 minutes per game last season. Even with Mason Faulkner’s departure, Brannen has a couple options here. One is freshman Trevonn Faulkner (no relation). This Faulkner averaged 27 points and 9 rebounds last season and was named Kentucky’s Mr. Basketball (if you’re trying to keep track, you’ll see that Brannen has signed two state Mr. Basketballs in three years at the helm, and two other Mr. Basketball finalists). The other is Norfolk State transfer Zaynah Robinson, a second team All-MEAC player in 2017 who sat last season with a back injury. A grad transfer, Robinson is immediately eligible. I suspect that Faulkner could claim the starting spot by year-end, but Robinson gives Brannen a nice insurance policy. RS freshman Paul Djoko could be another option.
At the shooting guard, junior Tyler Sharpe averaged 10 points per game over the final third of last season. Bryant Mocaby, a 6-5 freshman, may also see spot duty as a three-point specialist.
The Norse should be a good defensive team, and if Vogt and Adheke come through inside, an excellent one. Although McDonald’s ability to shoot threes is part of what makes him such a potent weapon, three point shooting is a likely weakness for this club. Sharpe hit 38% last year, but was streaky; no other returning player is a threat, and Robinson hit just 33% his last year at Norfolk State. The Norse have little depth outside of unproven freshmen and sophs. And of course someone needs to step up at the point. But that said, I expect NKU to be one of the favorites in the Horizon, with McDonald the presumptive Player of the Year. The Norse's non-conference schedule is weak except for the game at Cincinnati. That will make it tough to contend for an at large bid to the NCAA, but a 25 win season is a distinct possibility.
Probable Starters: PG: Zaynah Robinson, 5-11 Gr. (13.5 ppg, 4.5 apg at Norfolk State in 2017) SG: Tyler Sharpe, 6-1 Jr. (6.7 ppg, 38.0% 3Pt) SF: Jalen Tate, 6-5 RS Soph. (5.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) F/G: Dantez Walton, 6-5 Jr. (5.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg) C: Drew McDonald, 6-7 Sr. (17.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg)
Key Reserves: PG: Trevonn Faulkner, 6-4 Fr. SF: Adrian Nelson, 6-6 Fr. PF: Silas Adheke, 6-9 RS Soph. (7.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg in juco) C: Chris Vogt, 7-0 Soph. (0.9 ppg, 0.6 rpg)
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 11, 2018 16:05:30 GMT -5
Here's our second Horizon preview:
Wright State
2018 25-10 overall, RPI #98 14-4 in Conference (2nd place; won conference tournament) Lost in NCAA first round
Losses: Grant Benzinger, 14.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 36.9% 3Pt, 1st team All-Conference Justin Mitchell, 11.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg (left team after first week in January) Everett Wincheester, 8.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg (transfer) Tye Wilburn, 2.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg (transfer) Trey Stacey, walk-on
Returns: 63.7% of Minutes 60.7% of points 56.2% of rebounds
In 2016, Wright State fired Billy Donlan after a 22-win season, his third 20-win season in 4 years. Scott Nagy was brought in from the Dakotas with a single mission—to get WSU over the hump and back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007. Nagy got the job done in year two, winning 25 games and the Horizon tournament last year. With relatively few losses Wright State will be a, if not the, conference favorite in 2018-19.
Before turning to the 2018-19 season, however, let’s look for a moment at one factor of the 2018-19 season—luck. In recent decades, statisticians across most sports have devised measures to determine how many games a team would be expected to win based on the points (runs, goals, whatever) it scores vs. what it allows. You can figure, for example, that a team that outscores its opponents by an average score of 70-65 should win x percentage of its games. Deviation from that is attributed to “luck.” Now, that’s not entirely accurate, of course—deviation may be due to better coaching at key moments, to skill sets that matter more in close games (e.g. free throw shooting) and less in blowouts, or to “clutch” play (though most statisticians agree that the importance of “clutch” play, if it exists at all, is vastly overrated by fans). Still, it’s not a bad starting point for predicting improvement or decline. A team that won more games than expected due to luck is likely to decline the next season, and conversely a team that lost more than expected is likely to improve. Messing this up, of course, are changes in personnel and the development of players. But I’ve actually found that it seems to work pretty well when we fans start evaluating how they’ll do in the coming season.
Here are the Horizon 2018 teams ranked from luckiest to unluckiest (per KenPom), with their national ranking among last year’s 351 D-I teams:
1. Wright State (27th) 2. Cleveland State (96th) 3. IUPUI (101st) 4. Oakland (145th) 5. UIC (204th) 6. Youngstown State (205th) 7. Detroit (208th) 8. Milwaukee (241st) 9. Green Bay (258th) 10. Northern Kentucky (332nd)
What you might note first that on the whole, Horizon teams were unlucky. Assuming things revert to the mean, that’s a good sign for the Horizon heading into the 2018 non-conference season. As for the conference race itself, of the two teams most consider the leading contenders this season, last year Wright State was the luckiest (and one of the luckiest in the country), and Northern Kentucky the least lucky (and one of the unluckiest in the country). This suggests that if each team had returned exactly the same personnel, the Norse would get better and the Raiders worse, thus expanding NKU’s edge over Wright State. Just something to think about as we look forward to 2018-19. And it's kind of nice to think our Titans "should" have won 9 or 10 games. :-(
Of course, the teams aren't exactly the same as last year. So let’s look at Wright State going forward for 2018-19.
Things start with Loudon Love, last year’s Freshman of the Year in the Horizon and the league’s best big man after NKU’s Drew McDonald. Love averaged 14.9 points and 10.6 rebounds in conference play last year. Wright State will be solid across the front, with skinny 6-11 senior Parker Ernsthausen lining up next to Love, and the small forward/third guard spot manned by 6-6 Billy Wampler, a transfer from Drake, and 6-5 Jaylon Hall, who averaged 9.2 ppg last year as a freshman. Wampler, who has the great nickname “Billy Buckets,” will be expected to take up the three point shooting and scoring slack left by the graduation of All-Conference small forward Grant Benzinger. The starting guards should be junior Cole Gentry at the point and senior Mark Hughes at the #2 slot. Hughes is a good ballhandler who can man the point if needed, and made the Conference All-Defensive team last year.
There’s not a lot of depth on this club, but Nagy tends to use only a 7/8 man rotation anyway, with that 8th man getting no more than 8 to 10 or so minutes per game. Still, he could use a freshman or two to come through to fill the bottom of the rotation. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they took one on the chin in April when Jeremiah Davenport, Greater Cincinnati Player of the Year, failed to qualify. He’ll attend a prep school this year, and may or may not—more likely not—re-sign with WSU. Remaining possibilities include 6-7 redshirt freshman James Manns and 6-8 true freshman Grant Basile in the front court, and redshirt freshman Tyler Mitchell and true frosh Skyelar Potter and Malachi Smith in the backcourt. I don’t know that much about any of them. Basile was lightly recruited but his father is a high school coach, often a good sign. There’s almost no other depth at the 4/5 spots, so he's perhaps the most likely one of this bunch to play. Potter was the 18th-ranked player in Kentucky this year, and is likely to be a contributor over time, but probably not much this year. Smith had some solid offers (Denver, Missouri State) and played on the Illinois state champions this past season, where he was second fiddle to the state’s Mr. Basketball. Another possibility is senior Alan Vest, but I wouldn’t count on it—Vest has never played major minutes and he was still not practicing in later summer due to off-season surgery. It’s on the depth chart that the unexpected transfer of two-time freshman of the week Everett Winchester hurts.
But that potential lack of depth aside, Wright State, along with Northern Kentucky, is one of two healthiest programs in the Horizon, with respectable attendance numbers, quality playing facilities, and, in the last two years, wins. They return a healthy percentage of their scoring and rebounding. They’ll be a favorite in 2018-19.
Probable Starters PG: Cole Gentry, 5-10 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 2.6 apg, 36.8% 3Pt, 81.4% FT) G: Mark Hughes, 6-4 Sr. (9.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 34.4% 3 Pt., 83.1% FT) SF: Billy Wampler, 6-6 RS Jr. (9.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg at Drake in 2017) PF: Parker Ernsthausen, 6-11 RS Sr. (5.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg) C: Loudon Love, 6-9 RS Soph. (12.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 53.3% FG, 1.0 bpg)
Key Reserves G/F: Jaylon Hall, 6-5 Soph. (9.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg) G: Malachi Smith, 6-3 Fr. F: Grant Basile, 6-8 Fr. F: James Mann, 6-7 RS Fr.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 11, 2018 16:16:24 GMT -5
Good stuff, Commish. That Tarkus Ferguson is a stat sheet stuffer. Man, the conference lost a lot of production. Green Bay's Sandy Cohen among the top 10 returnees in every category.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 17, 2018 6:17:14 GMT -5
Our third preview:
UIC 20-16 overall, RPI 208 12-6 in Conference (3rd place; lost in quarterfinals of conference tournament)
Losses: Dikembe Dixson, 14.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg Tai Odiase, 9.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.1 bpg, Conference Defensive Player of the Year Clint Robinson, 4.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg
Returns: 63.6% of minutes 65.4% of points 58.8% of rebounds
Steve McClain arrived at UIC in the spring of 2015 and it’s been a blur of activity ever since. He’s snatched three star players away from high majors (for example, Dikembe Dixson, who chose UIC over offers from Tennessee, South Carolina, and Memphis State, among others; K.J. Santos, who preferred UIC to Oklahoma State and other high majors; and Greg Egboigboden). He’s seen his star recruits leave early (Dixson for the pros; Santos to transfer to Missouri; Egboigboden to bail on his LOI for Illinois). He’s pushed some pretty fair players out the door, such as Michael Kolawole, a conference All-Freshman selection in 2016, now at Lamar. And he’s taken a team that averaged fewer than 10 wins per season over the prior six years from 5 to 17 to 20 wins.
Last year UIC finished third in the conference, contending for the title through the final weekend of play, and after a disappointing early exit from the conference tournament, the Flames won three games to reach the final of the CIT, where they lost to Northern Colorado. I think UIC fans will expect at least that much this year, and UIC is likely to be a top 3 pick in the conference in the pre-season magazines. (It’s a sign of the rapid decline of the Horizon that UIC finished third last year with a #208 RPI).
McClain loses Dixson and conference Defensive Player of the Year Tai Odiase, who had also developed as a solid low post threat over the years. He also loses power forward Clint Robinson, who provided meaningful front-line depth. A year ago in these predictions I suggested that UIC’s talent was likely at its peak, and that may be the case. Or it may not.
Many UIC fans (and others) think the departure of Dixson may be a case of addition by substraction. I’m not generally a believer in that theory. More often than not, losing your top scorer hurts. But in this case, there may be something to it. Though he did lead the team in points per game, Dixson’s raw numbers were way down from his freshman and injury-abbreviated sophomore years. More importantly, the offense often seemed to flow better in his absence. Dixson is what some call a “volume shooter,” which is usually to say, a “bad shooter who shoots a lot.” Last year he hit just 39% overall and 31% from three. And UIC made its little CIT run without him. Meanwhile, McClain has signed a bunch of big jucos and freshmen to try to fill the rebounding and interior defense void left by the graduation of Odiase and Robinson. There’s no question about UIC’s guard play, so he only needs a couple signees to pan out to put a pretty solid team on the floor.
Guard play is UIC’s strength. The Flames’ 4 guard rotation of juniors Tarkus Ferguson, Marcus Ottey, Godwin Boahen, and Dominique Mathews is the best in the league. Any of the first three can man the point, though it typically falls to Ferguson, who led the Horizon in assists last year, if he’s in the game. Boahen is the best three-point shooter of the bunch (indeed he led the Horizon in 3 point percentage), but Matthews and Ferguson—both of whom made the All-Frosh team in 2017--can also make the trey. Ottey is UIC’s top returning scorer. Ferguson is really this team’s leader—the Flames went 1-6 against D-I competition last year when Ferguson was out of action.
I’m guessing McClain uses a three guard lineup most of the time, with Ferguson, Ottey, and either Boahen or Mathews starting. Mathews was losing playing time late last year and it's logical to see him as the #4 guy in that bunch. But Mathews would give the Flames a bit more size, and allow McClain to bring Boahen off the bench when they need that 3 point shooting lift--so I'm going to list him as the final starter. It won’t matter a whole lot—they’ll all get minutes, and those will be adjusted depending on who plays best during the season. If McClain does go with a 3-guard lineup much of the time, which could open up some minutes for Jamie Ahale, a 6-5 sophomore who averaged over 11 ppg last season at Mineral Area JC, or Deon Ejim, a 6-7 freshman shooting guard.
In the front line, redshirt soph Jordan Blount, the team’s leading rebounder a year ago, will need to step up his scoring inside and stop taking threes (14 for 67 last year). The quiet man in the Flames’ lineup, Blount was one of two Flames (Odiase the other) who started all 36 games last year. McClain will need to find someone to support Blount up front, and has several candidates, but none are overly impressive. Michael Diggins, a 6-8 soph, played in all 36 games last year and showed talent at times. He’s a good bet to start if none of the jucos step up. 6-11 center Isaac Bassey comes to UIC from juco powerhouse State Fair, but he averaged fewer than 4 points and 4 rebounds there. A smaller but better bet may be 6-8 Ron Howaard, who averaged 9 points, 7 boards, and 1.3 blocks at Shawnee CC last year. There’s also 6-9 freshman Brandon John, a Canadian not to be confused with Michigan signee Brandon Johns. John is unlikely to start but should see some minutes.
In the depleted Horizon, UIC should again be a factor in league play. If they can come up with some inside scoring, they will be a very tough team to beat. And with all of their key players set to return in 2020, things look pretty good for the Flames.
Probable Starters G – Tarkus Ferguson, 6-4 Jr. (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, 33.6% 3PtFG) G – Marcus Ottey, 6-2 Jr. (13.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg,1.8 apg, 34.2% 3PtFG) G – Dominique Matthews, 6-3 RS Jr. (7.8 ppg, 33.8% 3PtFG). F – Jordan Blount, 6-8 RS Soph. (6.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) F – Ron Howard, 6-8 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg JUCO)
Other Key Players G – Godwin Boahen, 5-11 Jr. (8.9 ppg, 2.1 apg, 42.7% 3PtFG) SG – Jamie Ahale, 6-5 Soph. (11.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg JUCO) SG – Deon Ejim, 6-7 Fr. F – Michael Diggins, 6-8 Soph. (3.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 51.4% 3PtFG (35 attempts)) F – Jacob Wiley, 6-7 Soph. (1.7 ppg, 1.6 rpg) F – Brandon John, 6-9 Fr. C – Isaac Bassey, 6-11 Jr. (3.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg JUCO)
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 17, 2018 18:10:56 GMT -5
Yeah, this is the rare case where I think you can actually say addition by subtraction when it comes to your top scorer. From afar, Dixson appeared to be a "me first" type of person. I remember when he had his college announcement decision at his high school, he complained that none of his teammates showed up to support him. Didn't sound like he was that good of a teammate.
Ferguson and Ottey should be a handful for the rest of the HL backcourts.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 23, 2018 6:40:16 GMT -5
The first official day for full practice is Tuesday. Meanwhile, in a little gym to the north... Oakland201819-14 overall, RPI #180 10-8 in Conference (4th place; lost in semifinals of conference tournament) Losses:Kendrick Nunn, 25.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.8 apg, 39.4% 3PtFG; Conference Player of the Year Jalen Hayes, 18.8 ppg ,8.1 rpg, 1st team All-Conference Martez Walker, 17.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, Conference All-Defense team Nick Daniels, 8.5 ppg, 3.9 apg, 37.3% 3PtFG Isaiah Brock, 5.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg Chris Palombizio, 2.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg Julius Palmer, 1.1 ppg, 1/7 rpg Tom Cotter and Chris Gilbert, scrubs Returns:16.6 % of Minutes 8.6 % of points 13.5 % of rebounds OK, first things first. Here are Stats for Four Players: Player/Stat | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | 3Pt % | FT% | Player A | 37.1 | 17.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 46.2 | 33.3 | 77.9 | Player B | 30.5 | 14.1 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 42.3 | 38.3 | 75.9 | Player C | 32.0 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 37.3 | 33.3 | 78.3 | Player D | 34.8 | 14.3 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 38.6 | 36.9 | 88.8 |
Which of these four do you put on the All-Conference team? Would it help if I told you that Player A made the Conference All-Defensive team (B, C, & D did not)? Anyway, these four players are last year’s Martez Walker, Jeremiah Bell, Cameron Morse, and Grant Benzinger. Benzinger made the Horizon 1st Team All-Conference, Bell and Morse the Second Team. Player A—Oakland’s Martez “Melonhead” Walker—played the most minutes, scored the most points, had the best shooting percentage, and made the All-Defensive team, but was left off the All-Conference honors. Walker, we might also note, was fifth in the league in scoring on a team on which he was only the #3 option of offense. I thought that leaving Walker off was some of the worst voting I’ve seen for all-conference teams—and somewhat strange given that he’d been second team all-conference as a junior. Well, I suppose the fate of the world won't hinge on this injustice.. OU has won 67 games in the last three years, but the period still seems a bit disappointing. In 2016, led by third-team All American Kay Felder, they won 21 games in the regular season and finished second in the Horizon, but after pulling the old double bye they lost to Wright State in their first game in the Conference Tournament, and settled for an 8-team tournament called the "Vegas 16" as their post-season. But they were beautifully set up for the 2017 season, built around Felder. They put together a non-conference schedule with 8 home games, including one with Georgia, and a trip to the Great Alaska Shootout. But it was not to be: Felder decided to enter the draft rather than return . OU still had an excellent season, beating Georgia and winning their last nine regular season games to finish the regular season at 24-7, but they again failed to win a game in the conference tournament, being upset by Youngstown State in the quarter finals. In the NIT, they beat Clemson on the road before losing at Richmond. OK, so 2018 was going to be the year. The Grizzlies returned every roster player but one, and in his place they substituted former Illinois standout Kendrick Nunn. They were also a mature and very veteran team, with four fifth-year seniors, plus Afghan War vet Isaiah Brock. They were a near unanimous preseason choice to win the Horizon. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/thread/648/2017-horizon-predictions-summary-chart. The Grizzlies even received a couple votes in the preseason AP poll, and were widely regarded as a mid-major to watch. But things went wrong almost from the start. Center Brad Brechting was sidelined with a foot injury for the entire season. With Brechting out, Kampe perhaps should have reconsidered his decision to redshirt junior forward Xavier Hill-Maas, but he left Hill-Maas on the bench all year, and OU short in the front court. All-Conference forward Jalen Hayes missed the first few games due to a bizarre NCAA ruling, and Martez Walker missed a couple games and was hobbled in others. Prize freshman James Beck was limited to 19 games by injuries. Finally, point guard Brailen Neely was lost for the season at the start of February with a torn lateral in his left knee. The Grizzlies got blown out in their non-conference P5 games and lost on the road to Eastern Michigan and Toledo, then lost 3 of their first 4 in conference play and eventually finished 4th. Although Oakland won a game in the Horizon conference tournament for the first time, they then lost in hideous fashion to Cleveland State in the semi-finals. The battered Grizzlies chose not to play in the CIT or CBI, finishing with a solid but still very disappointing 19-14 mark and mediocre #180 RPI. And now the rebuilding begins. Few teams lose as much from one season to the next as Oakland is losing this year. They lose their top 5 players in scoring and rebounding, and return less than 20 percent of their minutes played from last season. And yet, thanks to some solid additions and the expected return of Brechting and Hill-Maas, OU could again be a factor in the collapsing Horizon league, which is a total mess after the top three of Wright State, Northern Kentucky, and UIC,. The key guy, for a team that lost over 90% of its scoring, is probably Kamari Newman, a 6-4 shooting guard who comes back to Michigan after starting out at George Mason. A 2016 All-Stater from Detroit East English, Newman had a solid enough freshman year at GMU in 2017, but simply got caught up in a numbers game as GMU had signed a number of promising guards. The Grizz need the Detroit native to improve on his 33% three point shooting at Mason and emerge as a major scoring threat. Newman will join point guard Brailen Neely in the backcourt. Neely was leading the league in assists at the time of his injury, and he’ll run the offense again. It would help if he could develop as a scoring threat—he’s averaged under 3.5 ppg in two seasons, shooting 37% from the field and 29% from three—but he can definitely dish it off. Since neither Neely nor the club’s big men are scorers, Oakland will hope to get added scoring punch from sophomore wing James Beck, who, as noted, missed much of last season. Sophomore guard Stan Scott can also score, though he’s not a three point threat. Oakland also has a couple of freshman guards, Braden Norris and Kenny Pittman, who are decent recruits but unlikely to play major roles this year, though the WOTS is that Norris has looked good in summer workouts. Up front OU will be bolstered by the return of Hill-Maas from his redshirt year, and Brechting from his injury redshirt year. Hill-Maas is a wide-body, 6-7 245 lb. power forward. He’ll have to pick up the slack on the boards left by the unexpected transfer of Isaiah Brock. His offense comes mainly from putbacks. Brechting is 6-11 center who has shown occasional flashes but simply failed to develop consistently, then missed last season with the foot injury. They’ll be bolstered by another transfer, 6-9 forward from Jordan Nobles from Eastern Michigan. Despite his height, the slender Nobles is really a perimeter player who will be expected to provide a three point threat. Given OU’s shortage of three point shooting, I’m going to predict Nobles to start, allowing Kampe to have Hill-Maas as some muscle off the bench when Brechting needs a breather. The two most intriguing newcomers are freshman guard Tray Maddox and 6-10, 245 lb. freshman center Babatunde Sowunmi. Maddox was a Class A first team All-State selection, but he was passed over by a lot of teams on the recruiting market because it was assumed he would play football in college. The always opportunistic Kampe kept after him and got him. Explaining his unexpected choice of hoops over the gridiron, Maddox said, “"I want to be able to walk when I'm 40 years old. Before my shoulder injury [in high school], I never really thought about it, but after the injury, all those things came into play. In college football, you're putting body parts at risk." I expect he’ll get minutes from day one. Sowunmi is a true question mark. When Sowunmi committed to OU in October, the News’ Tony Paul ran a story that made him sound like the next coming of LeBron James. www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2017/10/10/oakland-lands-6-11-248-pound-center-nigeria/106499494/ . Paul wrote “Sowunmi’s impact should be immediate.” Color me very skeptical—I’m going to list him as a key reserve, but it wouldn’t shock me if he played Olumide Solanke minutes this year, or even was redshirted. There’s no doubt that he’s a great kid—high school valedictorian, class president, captain of both the football and basketball teams—but whether he’s a real contributor or an “airport” player remains to be seen. He played high school ball at a tiny Christian school in Georgia. There he was an All-State selection of the Georgia Independent School Association, a consortium of private schools in the state, but that was for its AA division, which is for the smallest schools it has (it has no Class A, only AA and AAA) and consists of just 27 schools. And they name a 15 player all-state team. So that all-state recognition is kind of like being a Class B All-County choice in much of Michigan. He did not make even Honorable Mention All-State for the Atlanta Journal Constitution, USA Today, or the Basketball Coaches Association. And at the time he committed—which, admittedly, was early--he had no other D-I offers, although schools including Louisville and Auburn had given him a look, as they’ll do with 6-10 guys. So Sowunmi was a good player against outmanned competition, and a guy worth a shot for a mid-major. I'm skeptical he'll have immediate impact. But if Paul's right, Oakland could just compete for the league title. So the Grizzlies are short of proven scoring; their three point shooting relies on Newman and Nobles, neither of whom has ever held down a starting position; and they’re counting on 3 big men—Brechting, Hill-Mass, and Sowunmi—who didn’t play a minute in college ball last year. For all that, in the mess that is the bottom two-thirds of the Horizon, OU could do OK. Beck and Maddox should be real good players around whom Oakland will build for the future. I think Newman will do very well in the Horizon. Brechting may finally break out. Neely can’t score but he runs the offense well. The early prognosticators are generally placing them in the middle of the Horizon pack. It's too bad we're in no position to take advantage of OU's many question marks. Given the state of the Titans, we’ll have to hope they don’t add to their 8-2 dominance of the series since they joined the conference. Probable StartersPG – Brailen Neely, 5-9 Jr. (4.0 ppg, 5.5 apg) SG – Kamari Newman, 6-4 RS Soph. (4.7 ppg for George Mason in 2017) SF – James Beck, 6-7 Soph. (3.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg) F – Jordan Nobles, 6-9 Gr. (4.7 ppg, 38% 3Pt for Eastern Michigan) C – Brad Brechting, 6-11 RS Jr. (3.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg in 2017) Key ReservesG – Tray Maddox, 6-4 Fr. G – Stan Scott, 6-3 Soph. (2.3 ppg) PF – Xavier Hill-Maas, 6-7 RS Jr. (5.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg in 2017) C – Babatunde Sowunmi, 6-10 Fr.
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 24, 2018 17:48:26 GMT -5
Good stuff on Oakland, Commish. It would be ironic if this year they surpassed expectations after falling short of preseason predictions the past few years.
Babatunde is a mystery, but some people have a lot of confidence in him showing up big this season.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 29, 2018 16:28:48 GMT -5
Our Fifth Team Preview
IUPUI 11-19 overall, RPI # 292 8-10 in Conference (tie 5th place; lost in quarterfinals of conference tournament)
Losses: Aaron Brennan, 12.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg T.J. Henderson, 10.8 ppg, 2.1 apg, 35.7% 3Pt (transfer) Ron Patterson, 10.3 ppg, 36.5% 3Pt Maurice Kirby, 4.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg Noah Thomas, Evan Borgman, walk-ons
Returns: 52.5% of minutes 43.7% of points 47.7% or rebounds
IUPUI was the consensus last-place team in last year’s Horizon media predictions, including the Horizon League Poll, but the Jaguars surprised in their first season in the conference, finishing 5th with an 8-10 record. IUPUI loses its top three scorers from that team, but they’ll reload quickly as a pair of D-I transfers become eligible this year, another returns from injury, and a couple of decent-looking jucos also join the Jags. The Jags finished 5th a year ago. Though I don’t think they’ve got the horses to challenge NKU, Wright State, and UIC for the title, they're potentially good enough to finish in the upper half of the league again.
As noted, the Jags are excited about two transfers. The first is Camron Justice, a 4-star recruit out of high school, the 2015 Kentucky Mr. Basketball, and a McDonald’s All-American. Justice signed with Vanderbilt and seemed to be hitting his stride in late November of his freshman year, scoring 22 points and shooting eight of 15 from the floor over the course of a Thanksgiving week tournament against Wake Forest, St. John’s, and Kansas. But a groin injury sidelined him for several games (he missed Vandy’s 50 point romp over Detroit that year) and he was never able to re-establish himself in the rotation. He transferred after playing just 65 minutes in the fall of 2016. The 6-3 guard should be a solid scorer in the Horizon.
Two second transfer is 7'1" Ahmed Ismail, who comes over from Manhattan, where he started 19 games in the 2017 season. Titan fans may recall his 11 rebound, 4 block performance in Manhattan’s November, 2016 win at Calihan Hall. He'll join IUPUI’s front line alongside senior Evan Hall, the team’s leading rebounder last year. Jaguars coach Jason Gardner may also call on 6-6 small forward/guard D.J. McCall, another senior and a starter in 27 games last year, and 6-7 Elyjah Goss, who averaged nearly 14 minutes a game last year as a freshman. Further down the bench he’s got a pair of freshman, 6-7 Jack Hanson and 6-10 Brandon Kenyon. Jacoby Kemp, who spent a redshirt year at Missouri before playing last year at Salt Lake CC, was a late summer addition, apparently replacing Mike Sagay. Sagay, a 6-7 Boston College transfer who was expected to play a major role this year for IUPUI, was suddenly dropped from the roster in the late summer and eventually transferred to a D-III school.
Gardner also has options at guard. In addition to Justice and McCall at the two spot, the Jags have depth at the point. Redshirt junior Nick Rogers, last year’s starter at the point, returns and is joined by Grant Weatherford. Weatherford started out at Purdue, played a year at the juco Midland College, and then joined IUPUI before last season. Weatherford didn’t play last year due to injuries, but he is expected to be ready this year. He is said to be an outstanding perimeter defender. Sophomore Jaylon Minnet, who played in all 30 games last year and knocked down over 40% from three, is a solid combo guard. Minnet could well start, but either way he’ll get lots of minutes. Also joining the team is 6-2 Trevor Johnson, a juco who was not eligible last season. This was all enough firepower at guard to convince TJ Henderson, the team’s #2 scorer last season, that he wasn’t going to play a key part on the 2019 Jags, and to transfer out.
Horizon fans continue to dis IUPUI, but don’t be surprised if IUPUI again exceeds those low expectations. They’ve got size, depth, experience, and age—and at the mid-major level, having older players often helps a lot. They’ve got a couple guys who can shoot the three, and the combination of Weatherford on the perimeter and Ismail filling the middle should make them a solid defensive club. The big problems for IUPUI is that somebody needs to score, but I expect Justice, Minnet, or someone else will step up. The last two additions to the Horizon, Oakland and Northern Kentucky, have been quite successful. I don’t see IUPUI doing that well, but don’t scoff at the Jags.
Probable Starters PG – Nick Rogers, 6-1 RS Jr. (5.1 ppg, 3.0 apg, 34.7% 3Pt%) SG – Camron Justice, 6-3 RS Jr. (1.7 ppg at Vanderbilt in 2017, 35.5% two year 3Pt FG%) SF – D.J. McCall, 6-6 Sr. (7.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.0 apg) PF – Evan Hall 6-7 Sr. (7.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) C – Ahmed Ismael, 7-1 RS Sr. (3.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.1 bpg at Manhattan in 2017)
Key Reserves PG – Grant Weatherford, 6-2 RS Jr. (6.9 ppg, 3.2 apg at Midland College in 2017) G – Jaylen Minnet, 6-1 Soph. (7.1 ppg, 40.5% 3 Pt FG) F – Elijah Goss, 6-7 Soph (3.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg) F – Jacoby Kemp, 6-9 Jr., (4.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg at Salt Lake CC).
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 7, 2018 11:19:31 GMT -5
On to Milwaukee... Milwaukee16-17 overall, RPI # 227 8-10 in Conference (tie 5th place; lost in semifinals of conference tournament) Losses:Jeremiah Bell, 14.1 ppg, 2nd Team All-Conference (transfer) Brock Stull, 13.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.1 apg (transfer) Bryce Nze, 10.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg (transfer) Brett Prahl, 9.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg August Haas 3.8 ppg, 2.8 apg (transfer) Jeremy Johnson, 5.0 ppg (left team) Alex Prahl, Seth Dittmer, Sam Burkhart, scrubs Returns:23.7 % of minutes 23.1 % of points 20.9 % or rebounds I’ve been to Milwaukee a few times, and found it a very pleasant city. It’s got some real nice urban residential areas, pleasant suburbs, college campuses, and some lovely areas along Lake Michigan. It’s got pro sports, cultural opportunities, a decent airport, and easy access to Chicago if you really need something more. No one ever nicknamed Milwaukee “the mistake by the Lake.” I mention this because the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee might have a pretty decent basketball program if it could just convince people to stay in the city. Back in 2016, Milwaukee completed a decent season with a 20-13 record, including a big win at big brother Wisconsin. The Panthers only finished 5th in the Horizon, but they could certainly have gone to the CBI or CIT if they wanted, and apparently both players and fans wanted. AD Amanda Braun, however, nixed any post-season, and fired coach Rob Jeter after the season (Like a lot of Milwaukee fans, Braun apparently had had unrealistic expectations about the team that year, see udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/4753.) At that point, all hell broke loose. The Panthers’ three best returning players—Jordan Johnson, Akeem Springs, and Austin Arians—decided to transfer, and their ultimate destinations—respectively, UNLV, Minnesota, and Wake Forest, where all three became major contributors—tells you how good the Panthers might have been in 2017. Add in the graduation of All-Conference forward Matt Tiby and a couple lesser graduations and transfers, and the Panthers entered 2017 minus their top 6 scorers and assist men, and top 5 rebounders from the 2016 team, and returned just 1 player who averaged more than 10 minutes per game. Milwaukee did, however, replace Jeter with the right Michigan Assistant, LaVall Jordan. Jordan’s depleted 2017 squad acquitted itself well. It’s 11-24 record was bad, but probably better than should have been expected, and the Panthers were competitive throughout the season. They even sent a scare through the Horizon brass when they advanced all the way to the finals of the Horizon League tournament, where they fell to Northern Kentucky by just 6 points. And then Jordan left, after one season, for his alma mater Butler. Enter former Northwestern Assistant Pat Baldwin. The Panthers were a schizo team last season, scoring non-conference wins at Iowa State and a 17 point whupping over eventual Final 4 participant Loyola, but losing to at home to Concordia-St. Paul and 13-19 Montana State. Still, they were again competitive for the most part, and closed by winning 7 of 12 in the final third of the season. And then everybody left again. For the second time in three years, the Panthers’ top three returning players—this time Brock Stull, Jeremy Bell, and Bryce Nze—all decided to transfer up, this time to Minnesota, UAB, and Butler, respectively. August Haas, who started most of the last two years at the point, also transferred out. And once again, Milwaukee was left in rebuilding mode, rather than the contention mode it expected. With only 3 returning scholarship players from last year’s lineup, Baldwin will rely on a pretty good looking group of jucos and transfers to keep the Panthers competitive. Let’s start though, with the trio of returnees. They are junior point guard Bryce Barnes, who was squeezing Haas out of playing time at the end of last season; senior forward Vance Johnson; and sophomore shooting guard Carson Newsome. All three should get minutes this year, indeed all three may start. But what will make or break the club are the newcomers. The new additions include a pair of good shooting guards, grad transfer Jake Wright, from Miami of Ohio, and junior DeAndre Abram from George Mason. Wright is a career 39% shooter from three-point range and a career 84% free throw shooter. Abram had a decent freshman season at GMU in 2016, starting 13 games and averaging 6.6 points, but got squeezed out by GMU’s freshman class in 2017, which included a number of good shooting guards. Pencil in Wright as the starter but expect Abram to play regularly. There are no other three point shooters on this roster, so these guys have to deliver. Also in the mix is juco arrival Bobby Arthur-Williams. The sophomore, Newsome, is going to have to shoot better (37% overall, 28% from three) if he wants to keep his playing time. Abram, Williams, and Newsom are all big guards who can help on the boards, fill the small forward slot, and cause some match-up problems against smaller guards around the league. Reinforcements also arrive at the point in the form of Darius Roy, a juco transfer who began his career at Mercer. Roy led Connors State to the NJCCA Elite 8, and could push Barnes for the starting spot at the point. The top front court addition is Amir Allen, who played last season at Northern Oklahoma, a juco located in Tonkawa. The 6-8 Allen had some nice offers, including St. Bonaventure, Iona, South Florida, Buffalo, and Bradley. He’s a strong inside player. 6-8 Will Sessons, another juco, will also vie for playing time. Milwaukee’s final addition this year is the team’s star recruit, freshman guard/forward Shae Mitchell. Mitchell was rated a 4-star recruit by ESPN, but he didn’t develop a lot his final two years of high school and the ESPN ranking is almost certainly too high. But he is a very good player, and nice catch for Baldwin. I expect Mitchell to play right away, though I'm probably being overly optimistic in predicting him to start right away. Baldwin’s job is to meld this crew into a cohesive and competitive unit in 2018-19, and then wait. The only senior on the roster this year is Vance Johnson, and next year a pair of potential impact transfers becomes available, 6-10 Harrison Henderson from USC, and guard Te’Jon Lucas from Illinois. Possibly waiting in the class of 2021 is Patrick Baldwin, namesake and son of Coach Baldwin and generally rated a top 10 player in his class. If he were to play for dear ole' Dad, he’ll likely best Ray McCallum as the highest rated Horizon recruit in the quarter century or so since everyone started rating these things. But even if his development stalls (which may make it more likely he'll become a Panther), he’ll be a good player. So the future in Milwaukee looks pretty good—if they can just convince people to stay around town. It's not a bad city. Really. Probable StartersPG – Bryce Barnes, 5-11 Jr. (6.5 ppg, 1.8 apg) SG – Jake Wright, 6-4 Gr. (5.4 ppg, 40.8% 3Pt FG at Miami of Ohio) SF – Shae Mitchell, 6-6 Fr. PF – Vance Johnson, 6-8 Sr. (4.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg) PF – Amir Allen, 6-8 RS Soph. (11.8 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 63% FG at Northern Oklahoma CC) Key ReservesPG – Darius Roy, 6-2 Jr. (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg at Connors State CC) SG – Bobby Arthur-Williams, 6-7 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg at Redlands CC) SG – DeAndre Abram, 6-8 RS Jr. (3.4 ppg with George Mason in 2017). SG – Carson Newsome, 6-5 Soph. (6.0 ppg) C – Will Sessoms, 6-8 Jr. (10.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg at Lee College (juco)).
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Post by motorcitysam on Oct 7, 2018 18:48:46 GMT -5
Milwaukee is a fine town. I have enjoyed all of my visits there. If some of those JUCO players work out, look for Milwaukee to be really tough in 2019-20.
Milwaukee (and Cleveland State) are vivid examples of the negative impact transfers have on mid majors, particularly where the high majors swoop in and take their pick of talent after a mid major coach has already developed.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 11, 2018 18:43:01 GMT -5
Green Bay 13-20 overall, RPI # 302 7-11 Conference, (7th place, lost in quarterfinals of conference tournament)
Losses Khalil Small, 18.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 3.3 apg; 1st team all-conference David Jesperson, 8.4 ppg. 4.0 rpg Sukhjot Bains, 3.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg (transfer)
Returns 62.9% of minutes 61.6% of points 64.3% of rebounds
This, his fourth season at the helm, could be a hot one for Green Bay coach Linc Darner. In the spring of 2015, he inherited a 24-9 team, and while that team graduated Horizon Player of the Year Kiefer Sykes and All-Conference forward Greg Mays, there was a lot of talent left in Jordan Fouse, Karen Kanter, Charles Cooper, Carrington Love, Khalil Small, and Kenneth Lowe. A late season rush, winning 8 of their last nine, got Green Bay a 23-12 record and an NCAA tournament bid, but if that team had lost to Valpo in the Conference tournament semis (a game they won in overtime), it would have been nothing more than a typical--or even less than typical--Todd Kowalcyk/Brian Wardle season. The next year they dropped to 18-14 with a first round HL tournament loss, and then last season they were 13-20 overall (3 of those wins over D-III or NAIA teams), with their worst conference record since 2003.
I would think this is, if not a "make or break" year, close to it for Darner. This is now his team—his first set of recruits, from the truncated 2015 recruiting season, are seniors, and his first full class are juniors. He needs to reverse the trend and show some progress.
But progress looks like a decent bet. Last year’s Phoenix were an unlucky team (see Wright State preview), in the bottom 25% nationally for luck. Despite their 13-20 record, Green Bay actually outscored its opponents on the season, suggesting they could have won another 4 to 5 games last year. And despite the loss of all-conference selection Khalil Small, there is some decent talent here. Add to that the recurring theme of this year’s previews recurs: the Horizon has no dominant team, and most the league is a jumble of question marks. The teams that figure out how to put things together, or get improvement from unexpected sources, can rise quickly to the top, and Green Bay could definitely be one of those teams.
The Phoenix will likely be built around a couple of smooth offensive players, Sandy Cohen and Kameron Hankerson. Cohen, a Marquette transfer, averaged 16.1 points and 5.7 rebounds after becoming eligible for the second semester last season. The 6-6 senior is a likely all-conference selection who can do a bit of everything—score inside, knock down the periodic three, play ‘D’, handle the ball, and assume the 2, 3, or 4 slot—even the point in a pinch—on the floor. Hankerson, a 6-5 junior shooting guard from Novi, began to come into his own last year, culminating with a 36-point performance against our Titans in the HL tournament. He averaged 10.7 points for the year, but 12.7 over the last 14 games of the season.
After Cohen and Hankerson, guessing who will start and who will play is a bit like predicting the Horizon League order of finish this year. Darner has a slew of jucos and transfers coming on, so how it shakes out is anybody’s guess. But remember, one of the fun things about being on Linc Darner’s roster is that everybody gets to play.
Perhaps the most likely player to nail down another starting role is sophomore forward Manny Patterson. The 6-8 soph averaged 6 points and 4.9 rebounds last year. Another soph, PJ Pipes, will likely start at the point. Like Patterson, he had a solid but unexceptional freshman year in 2017-18. The last starting spot seems likely to go to 6-8 redshirt junior Cody Schwarz, a three point shooter who transferred from San Jose State. In two seasons at San Jose, Schwarz hit 36.4% of his three point attempts, but he lost playing time the second year. I'm less sold on Schwarz than most, however, and could easily see someone else--most likely 6-7 senior TJ Parham--claim that spot.
Darner has several other entering transfers/jucos who could break into the starting lineup. And in some ways, again, it doesn’t matter a ton who starts because Darner will go 9, 10 or even 11 deep in the rotation.
So look for these guys to get plenty of playing time:
Jayquan McCloud: If his name seems vaguely familiar, it’s because this is Jayquan’s second go-around in the Horizon. McCloud actually started as the prize recruit of Murray State’s Class of ’14, but he complained of homesickness and left school before the season started. He transferred to Milwaukee, where he became eligible in the second semester of his sophomore year, but after playing in 18 games, left the team “for personal reasons” in late February. It might be noted that his playing time had dropped from an average of 18 minutes per game in his first dozen games to just 5 minutes per game in his last six. McCloud appears to have sat out the 2016-17 season only to resurface last year at Highland CC in Illinois, where he averaged over 15 points, shooting better than 50% overall and 40% from three. If he’s got his head together, he can contribute right away; some think he’ll start.
Trevian Bell: 6-6 Sophomore guard hit 38% from three last year.
Jevon Smith: 6-4 guard shot 59% in juco last year. He played his freshman year at D-I Mississippi Valley State.
Hunter Crist: A 39% shooter from three as a freshman last year. Crist needs to get his fouls under control—he averaged 2.4 fouls in under 15 minutes per game last year, which makes it hard to stay on the floor.
Josh McNair: An inside player who shot 61% last year in the juco ranks.
Shanquan Hemphill: Another 60% shooter in juco last year. Best of all, he’s nicknamed “Tank!”
You’ll notice right off the bat that the Phoenix have a lot of high percentage shooters. Green Bay led the league in three pointers and three-point percentage a year ago, and should extend those margins this season. Darner’s formula during his successful runs in the D-III and D-II ranks was to come at the opposition in waves, speed up and down the court, and shoot well. Although he got his first Green Bay team to the NCAA, this is really the first team he’s had truly built to his principles. Darner has vowed to press more and pick up the tempo this year—a remarkable pledge given that Green Bay had the 6th shortage average length of possession in the country last year, and played the 23rd fastest overall tempo, according to KenPom.
This team has enough to finish in the Horizon’s upper division, and as noted at the outset, it may be imperative for Darner that it do so. Barring a complete catastrophe, I wouldn’t see Darner being shown the door, but if he can’t win this year, 2020 will likely be a make or break season.
Probable Starters PG: PJ Pipes, 6-2 Soph. (7.2 ppg, 1.9 apg) SG: Kam Hankerson, 6-5 Jr. (10.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 38.7% 3PtFG) G/F – Cody Schwarz, 6-8 RS Jr. (3.9 ppg, 40.5% 3PtFG at San Jose State, 2017) SF: Sandy Cohen, 6-6 RS Sr. (16.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 34.9% 3PtFG) PF: Manny Patterson, 6-8 Soph. (6.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg)
Key Reserves G – Jay’Quan McCloud, 6-2 RS Jr. (15.4 ppg, 51.4% FG, 42.4% 3PtFG at Highland CC) G – Jevon Smith, 6-4 Jr. (13.2 ppg, 59.7% FG, 40.9% 3PtFG at Iowa Western CC) G – Hunter Crist, 6-3 Soph. (3.9 ppg, 38.8% 3PtFG) G/F – Trevion Bell, 6-6 Soph. (4.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg) F: TJ Parham, 6-7 Sr. (5.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 35.1% 3PtFG) F – Josh McNair, 6-6 Jr. (14.2 ppg, 60.9% FG at Otero JC) F – Tank Hemphill, 6-6 Jr. (14.2 ppg, 60.4% FG at Florida Southwestern State CC)
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