Post by Commissioner on Mar 10, 2021 12:48:19 GMT -5
Starting a post season thread. I'll start it with a post I made earlier under Cleveland State:
So, where does CSU get seeded? Let's face it, 16 seeds lose. 15 seeds lose. Since the 64/68 team format began:
16th seeds are 1-139
15th seeds are 8-132, plus 1-7 in the second round.
However, 14th seeds begin to win games. At this point, you're playing a higher seed that may be not be in the top 10, and that almost certainly has a few more weaknesses.
14th seeds are 21-119, that is, they win the first round game just over 15% of the time, with a 14th seed pulling off an upset a bit more than once every other year.
And 13th seeds are 28-111 in the first round. You can figure 1 to 2 teams on the 13th/14th lines will advance in an average year.
To avoid a 15th seed, CSU has to be ahead of 10 teams--6 16th seeds (remember the play in games) and 4 15th seeds.
CSU has 1 "Quad 1" win, the victory over Wright State. It's 1-3 in Quad 1 games (losses @ Toledo, @ Wright State, @ Ohio State). What's really damaging is the lack of Quad 2/3 wins--literally zero. They're 0-1 Quad 2 (@ Ohio U), and have 0 quad three games. Detroit is done, of course, but if the right combination of other teams' games could push UD from 162 to 160, CSU would pick up a couple Quad 3 games, at least. Realistically, 160 or 162 is mostly chance, but to a tired committee member just glancing at the sheet, I'm sure it would make CSU look better. (Stupid move by Horizon to re-seed--a Titan team that was seeded 3rd, had a bye, and then beat YSU, would be a pair of Quad 3 games for CSU). CSU was also hurt because beating Milwaukee and Oakland did almost nothing for their NET rank. Especially in the final, they needed to beat Wright State, Detroit, or at least NKU to improve their NET. For example, Oral Roberts jumped 14 places winning the Summit title last night. CSU jumped 2 winning the Horizon.
Here's who is likely behind CSU:
1) Appalachian State (Sun Belt): Don't let Appalachian's 17-11 record fool you: 4 wins were over non-D1 teams. For Committee purposes, they're 13-11, with a #210 NET, and no Quad 1-2 wins (but 7 in Quad 3).
2) America East Champ (Hartford, 14-8, NET 170, or UMass-Lowell, 11-11, #207). I think Hartford, if it wins, could beat out CSU for a seed, but probably won't. UMass Lowell will be behind CSU, I think.
3) MEAC Champ TBD
4) SWAC Champ TBD
Maybe Behind CSU?
1) Mount St. Mary's (NEC), 12-10, #161. 0-2 against Quad 1, but with a Quad 2 win (@ Bryant) and 3-3 in Quad 3 games.
2) Oral Roberts (Summit), 13-10, #158. No Quad 1/2 wins for ORU, but 5 in Quad 3.
If I had to guess, I'd say CSU is ahead of Mount St. Mary's but behind ORU.
Probably Ahead of CSU:
1) Drexel (Colonial): 12-7, #138.
2) Morehead State (OVC): 21-7, #122. 0-3 against Quad 1, 1-2 against Quad 2, but 6-1 against Quad 3.
That's only 7 teams so far, and probably just 5 or maybe 6. CSU needs a bunch of upsets in conferences where the favorite(s) would likely get a better seed, but other teams would not (e.g. the MAAC, WAC, Big Sky, Patriot, Southland).
At this point, I'd say a 15th seed looks likely, and a 16th more likely than a 14th.
So, where does CSU get seeded? Let's face it, 16 seeds lose. 15 seeds lose. Since the 64/68 team format began:
16th seeds are 1-139
15th seeds are 8-132, plus 1-7 in the second round.
However, 14th seeds begin to win games. At this point, you're playing a higher seed that may be not be in the top 10, and that almost certainly has a few more weaknesses.
14th seeds are 21-119, that is, they win the first round game just over 15% of the time, with a 14th seed pulling off an upset a bit more than once every other year.
And 13th seeds are 28-111 in the first round. You can figure 1 to 2 teams on the 13th/14th lines will advance in an average year.
To avoid a 15th seed, CSU has to be ahead of 10 teams--6 16th seeds (remember the play in games) and 4 15th seeds.
CSU has 1 "Quad 1" win, the victory over Wright State. It's 1-3 in Quad 1 games (losses @ Toledo, @ Wright State, @ Ohio State). What's really damaging is the lack of Quad 2/3 wins--literally zero. They're 0-1 Quad 2 (@ Ohio U), and have 0 quad three games. Detroit is done, of course, but if the right combination of other teams' games could push UD from 162 to 160, CSU would pick up a couple Quad 3 games, at least. Realistically, 160 or 162 is mostly chance, but to a tired committee member just glancing at the sheet, I'm sure it would make CSU look better. (Stupid move by Horizon to re-seed--a Titan team that was seeded 3rd, had a bye, and then beat YSU, would be a pair of Quad 3 games for CSU). CSU was also hurt because beating Milwaukee and Oakland did almost nothing for their NET rank. Especially in the final, they needed to beat Wright State, Detroit, or at least NKU to improve their NET. For example, Oral Roberts jumped 14 places winning the Summit title last night. CSU jumped 2 winning the Horizon.
Here's who is likely behind CSU:
1) Appalachian State (Sun Belt): Don't let Appalachian's 17-11 record fool you: 4 wins were over non-D1 teams. For Committee purposes, they're 13-11, with a #210 NET, and no Quad 1-2 wins (but 7 in Quad 3).
2) America East Champ (Hartford, 14-8, NET 170, or UMass-Lowell, 11-11, #207). I think Hartford, if it wins, could beat out CSU for a seed, but probably won't. UMass Lowell will be behind CSU, I think.
3) MEAC Champ TBD
4) SWAC Champ TBD
Maybe Behind CSU?
1) Mount St. Mary's (NEC), 12-10, #161. 0-2 against Quad 1, but with a Quad 2 win (@ Bryant) and 3-3 in Quad 3 games.
2) Oral Roberts (Summit), 13-10, #158. No Quad 1/2 wins for ORU, but 5 in Quad 3.
If I had to guess, I'd say CSU is ahead of Mount St. Mary's but behind ORU.
Probably Ahead of CSU:
1) Drexel (Colonial): 12-7, #138.
2) Morehead State (OVC): 21-7, #122. 0-3 against Quad 1, 1-2 against Quad 2, but 6-1 against Quad 3.
That's only 7 teams so far, and probably just 5 or maybe 6. CSU needs a bunch of upsets in conferences where the favorite(s) would likely get a better seed, but other teams would not (e.g. the MAAC, WAC, Big Sky, Patriot, Southland).
At this point, I'd say a 15th seed looks likely, and a 16th more likely than a 14th.