|
Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 2, 2022 11:17:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Commissioner on Feb 2, 2022 17:59:32 GMT -5
Wright State When: Thursday, Feb. 3, 7:00 p.m. Where: Nutter Center, Fairborn, Ohio, just outside beautiful Dayton. TV: ESPN+ Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM
When the Titans aren't shooting themselves in their own feet, it seems like outside forces conspire against them. Last year, because of the uneven schedules caused by Covid, the HL developed an obscure, complex formula for seeding the Horizon tournament, which seemed to work against the Titans. This year, the league has abandoned that effort and will just go straight W-L percentage, which seems destined to work against the Titans. We have lost 5 conference games to Covid, all of them at home, and with the exception of Oakland--our local rival and biggest attendance draw of the year--all have been against teams wallowing the HL's second division. The Titans will enter Thursday's game at 5-3 in the league, but it's easy to figure the Titans would be 9-4 or 10-3 had the cancelled games be made up. Could Covid have cancelled our road games against Cleveland State, Wright State, Oakland, or a resurgent Northern Kentucky? No, of course not.
Oh well, there's nothing to do but win--if you have to win the league title on the strength of cancellations, you don't really deserve it. And the Titans have two huge road games this weekend that will probably determine if they get a first round bye in the HL tournament, at Wright State and NKU.
First up are the Raiders of Wright State. The defending regular season champs are currently in 3rd place in the conference at 9-4. Favored by many to repeat as champs, the Raiders' early season was a disaster. They lost on the road to a weak Marshall team, and dropped three very winnable holiday tournament games on a neutral floor, to Long Beach, James Madison, and George Washington. They weren't expected to beat Purdue, but nor did most people anticipate a 42-point pasting. Akron beat them in Dayton by 18 points, and the Raiders split their opening December HL games with Fort Wayne and Cleveland State. Things turned around after the Akron loss. The Raiders beat a weak Tennessee Tech team, then upset North Carolina State in Raleigh. Wright combined those wins with a favorable early conference schedule to win 7 in a row before they were stunned at Youngstown State in mid-January. The YSU loss was part of a 5 game road swing that the Raiders came out of with 3 wins, but they then lost at home to Cleveland State after opening a big early lead. In their last game, they beat Fort Wayne 75-63 at home. All that leaves the Raiders a game and a half behind Cleveland State and Oakland, but remember that they've also lost twice to Cleveland State, and trail Oakland by three in the loss column. Increasingly, the HL looks like a two-team race at the top, with Wright, NKU, and Detroit battling for the final two tournament byes.
The Raiders are led by junior guard Tanner Holden, a do-it-all type who leads the team in minutes, points, assists, steals, and free throw shooting, while grabbing a second best 6.7 rebounds per game. He's actually 12th in the country in scoring, averaging 20.9 per contest, and torched UIC for 38 points late last month. Holden shares the ball-handling duties with junior Trey Calvin, who is more of a true point and who averages 14 points. Both guards shoot over 80% at the stripe, helping to lift Wright State into the top 20 in the country in free throw percentage. Indeed, free throw shooting is a huge weapon for Holden-he leads the nation in free throw attempts, and as he makes 81% of his attempts, its no surprise that he leads the nation in points fro m the line. Meanwhile, the big wheel in the Wright State trike is 6-9 junior forward Grant Basile, who is 5th in the Horizon in scoring and second in rebounding, and leads the league in blocked shots. That a pretty heady trio to start with, but illuminates one of Wright's big problems this year--lack of depth.
The fourth regular starter is junior wing Tim Finke, whose three point percentage has dropped from 41 to 32% from last year to this. All four are averaging at least 32 minutes per game, with Basile the lowest of the four mainly because he often gets into some foul trouble. Finke's a solid enough payer, but with his numbers off from a year ago, he averages over 35 minutes per game because there's no reliable substitute on the bench. And in fairness, he's a very good defensive player, probably the best on the team. After trying CJ Wilbourn, and Keeton Norris early in the year, Coach Scott Nagy has settled on 6-9 freshman AJ Braun as the 5th starter, and the team is 8-4 with Braun starting vs. 3-6 against D-1 competition without him in the starting lineup.
The lack of depth hasn't been helped by injuries that have kept Cornell Grad transfer Riley Voss off the court since early January, and sophomore guard Alex Huigbeste since November. Huigbreste is out for the season. Voss could be back, but probably not this week. That leaves three players who see regular action off the bench--guards Andrew Welage and Keeton Norris, and forward CJ Wilbourn--but combined they average just 9 points and 4 rebounds.
A second weakness for Wright has been three point shooting. As noted, Finke's numbers are way off, but so are those for Basile, who has dropped from over 40% to just 24%, while taking twice as many attempts as a year ago. Actually, Calvin and Holden are both decent three point shooters, as is Norris, but of that trio, only Calvin fires them up regularly. Finke and Basile combine for almost 50 percent of the team's attempts, and that weighs the number down. The fact that it has been a problem for Wright this year doesn't mean it will be on Thursday--both Basile and Finke have put up good percentages in the past.
A third reason for Wright's disappointing season (relatively speaking) is defense. Last year the Raiders had the league's best defense, but this year they rank 8th in points allowed, and it's not just the fast pace at which the Raiders play--KenPom puts them at #290 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a bit surprising because the ingredients are there--Basile is a big presence and shot blocker underneath, Finke and Holden are good defensive ballplayers--but if that's what KenPom says, well...
This should be a fast-paced game. Wright State tends to have trouble with zone defense, so--sorry Tom--I expect to see the Titans mostly in zone. The Titans were short-handed for Monday's blowout of UM-Dearborn, with Phillips and Waterman out (plus Sylla). Phillips looks doubtful for Thursday--I don't know about Waterman, but if he's out we may not be able to take advantage of WSU's depth issues.
This is a big weekend. Except for the close loss at Cleveland State, the Titans have so far avoided the league's better teams. A pair of wins on the road would really mark the Titans as a threat in the HL tournament. A pair of losses, not so much. We really need at least a split to be taken seriously.
Wright State Starters G: #1 Trey Calvin, 6-0 Jr. (14.0 ppg, 2.9 apg, .363 3PtFG) G: #2 Tanner Holden, 6-6 Jr. (20.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, .393 3PtFG) G: #24 Tim Finke, 6-6 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.4 apg, .324 3PtFG) F: #00 Grant Basile, 6-9 Jr. (17.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.6 bpg, .241 3PtFG) C: #12 AJ Braun, 6-9 Fr. (7.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg)
Bench G: #4 Keeton Norris, 5-11 Fr. (2.7 ppg, .341 3PtFG) G: #22 Andrew Wellage, 6-6 Soph. (4.1 ppg) F: #5 CJ Wilbourn, 6-7 Jr. (2.1 ppg)
|
|
|
Post by rc on Feb 2, 2022 18:55:54 GMT -5
Thanks Commish, and yes I agree, we need a split this weekend.
|
|
|
Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 2, 2022 23:03:16 GMT -5
Wright State is favored by 3.5 points
|
|
|
Post by ptctitan on Feb 3, 2022 6:29:54 GMT -5
Looks real cold in the Dayton area.
|
|
|
Post by ptctitan on Feb 3, 2022 8:48:14 GMT -5
I have heard that tonight's game could be moved to Friday (tomorrow) night and NKU to Sunday if the projected bad winter weather creates dangerous conditions in Dayton later today. That could prevent officials from getting to the game. If this happens, Monday's game versus Rochester would be postponed to a later date in February. Right now, they still hope to play the game tonight.
|
|
|
Post by Commissioner on Feb 3, 2022 9:32:15 GMT -5
I have heard that tonight's game could be moved to Friday (tomorrow) night and NKU to Sunday if the projected bad winter weather creates dangerous conditions in Dayton later today. That could prevent officials from getting to the game. If this happens, Monday's game versus Rochester would be postponed to a later date in February. Right now, they still hope to play the game tonight. I had planned to drive over but the roads are really bad--pure ice. It's supposed to be worse over near Dayton. I'm not wimpy about winter storms--in fact, I like driving in heavy winter weather. But I wouldn't want to see people driving in this. Ice everywhere.
|
|
|
Post by larrytitan on Feb 3, 2022 9:33:27 GMT -5
Do you mean that the HL might actually Reschedule a game? Even if only for 24 hrs…..
|
|
|
Post by uofdfan1983 on Feb 3, 2022 9:43:58 GMT -5
No Noah in the photo. It ain't gonna be easy....
|
|
|
Post by ptctitan on Feb 3, 2022 10:12:06 GMT -5
No Noah in the photo. It ain't gonna be easy.... That was the Mike-Mike (Mike Davis Jr.) fried chicken posse. Not everyone on the team likes fried chicken.
|
|
|
Post by ptctitan on Feb 3, 2022 10:15:38 GMT -5
I have heard that tonight's game could be moved to Friday (tomorrow) night and NKU to Sunday if the projected bad winter weather creates dangerous conditions in Dayton later today. That could prevent officials from getting to the game. If this happens, Monday's game versus Rochester would be postponed to a later date in February. Right now, they still hope to play the game tonight. I had planned to drive over but the roads are really bad--pure ice. It's supposed to be worse over near Dayton. I'm not wimpy about winter storms--in fact, I like driving in heavy winter weather. But I wouldn't want to see people driving in this. Ice everywhere. Big Ten postpones tonight's game at OSU.
|
|
|
Post by udballer on Feb 3, 2022 11:40:07 GMT -5
No Noah in the photo. It ain't gonna be easy.... I think we'll be good either way... unless Matt Johnson is late to the bus and ends up benched for two games. In that scenario, we're in trouble.
|
|
|
Post by upbasketballfan on Feb 3, 2022 13:11:13 GMT -5
No Noah in the photo. It ain't gonna be easy.... I think we'll be good either way... unless Matt Johnson is late to the bus and ends up benched for two games. In that scenario, we're in trouble. We are a little weak on depth. If WS forces it inside and gets Willie in foul trouble we do not have much in the tank. We need Noah for the depth and the additional fouls inside. I do not like Koka’s movement in the zone. Will Phillips be available?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2022 14:13:51 GMT -5
Damn, it's been a tough day - I was so looking forward to tonight's game
FYI, the women's game tomorrow also rescheduled
|
|
|
Post by Commissioner on Feb 3, 2022 14:34:00 GMT -5
I'll bet the team is excited to get another cold, icy night in Dayton, the Anchorage of the farm belt.
|
|