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Post by Commissioner on Feb 25, 2022 8:05:06 GMT -5
Alright, someone smarter than me break it down where things are at after tonight’s action… Cleveland State (15-5): #1 seed. First round bye. Purdue-Fort Wayne (14-6): Guaranteed first round bye. Clinches #2 seed with a win at Detroit. If they lose, they would fall behind NKU and WSU if those teams win their respective games against YSU and RMU. So 2-4 seed. Northern Kentucky (13-6): Guaranteed first round bye. Clinches at least a #3 seed by beating YSU. An NKU win and PFW loss gives them the #2 seed. If they lose, they would fall behind WSU if WSU beats Robert Morris. So 2-4 seed. Wright State (14-7): Clinch at least a #4 seed by beating RMU. If they win they will catch PFW and/or NKU if either team loses. If they lose, they will fall behind Detroit after we beat PFW. Wright State would have the anomaly of leading us by a half-game in the traditional standings (finishing 6 games over .500 to our 5 games over .500), but at 14-8 would have a .636 winning percentage to our .647. Still, it's RMU at home, so unfortunately for us, WSU looks pretty good for a top 4 seed. But they could finish anywhere from 2 to 5. Detroit (10-6): With a win and a WSU loss, Titans claim #4 seed and the final bye. If Titans win and WSU wins, Titans finish 5th and host IUPUI in the first round. If Titans lose, they will finish 5th (if both OU and YSU lose), 6th if one of OU/YSU win, and 7th if both win. The #6 seed will host Green Bay in the first round. The #7 seed hosts Robert Morris in the first round. Oakland (11-7): Will finish between 5th and 7th. OU win and UD loss gets them 5th. OU win and UD win, or OU loss and YSU loss, gets them 6th. OU loss and YSU win puts them 7th. Youngstown State (12-8): Like OU, will finish between 5th and 7th. To get 5th, they need to upset NKU and have both UD and OU lose. If the win and only one of OU/UD win, they finish 6th. If they lose, or if they win and both OU and UD win, they finish 7th. UIC (8-10): #8 seed. Will host Milwaukee in first round. Milwaukee (8-13): #9 seed. Robert Morris (5-15): #10 seed. Green Bay (3-16): #11 seed. IUPUI (1-15) #12 seed. I think our most likely scenario is a #5 seed, hosting IUPUI and then playing at either PFW or WSU.
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Post by JDetroitTitan on Feb 25, 2022 8:44:07 GMT -5
Alright, someone smarter than me break it down where things are at after tonight’s action… Cleveland State (15-5): #1 seed. First round bye. Purdue-Fort Wayne (14-6): Guaranteed first round bye. Clinches #2 seed with a win at Detroit. If they lose, they would fall behind NKU and WSU if those teams win their respective games against YSU and RMU. So 2-4 seed. Northern Kentucky (13-6): Guaranteed first round bye. Clinches at least a #3 seed by beating YSU. An NKU win and PFW loss gives them the #2 seed. If they lose, they would fall behind WSU if WSU beats Robert Morris. So 2-4 seed. Wright State (14-7): Clinch at least a #4 seed by beating RMU. If they win they will catch PFW and/or NKU if either team loses. If they lose, they will fall behind Detroit after we beat PFW. Wright State would have the anomaly of leading us by a half-game in the traditional standings (finishing 6 games over .500 to our 5 games over .500), but at 14-8 would have a .636 winning percentage to our .647. Still, it's RMU at home, so unfortunately for us, WSU looks pretty good for a top 4 seed. But they could finish anywhere from 2 to 5. Detroit (10-6): With a win and a WSU loss, Titans claim #4 seed and the final bye. If Titans win and WSU wins, Titans finish 5th and host IUPUI in the first round. If Titans lose, they will finish 5th (if both OU and YSU lose), 6th if one of OU/YSU win, and 7th if both win. The #6 seed will host Green Bay in the first round. The #7 seed hosts Robert Morris in the first round. Oakland (11-7): Will finish between 5th and 7th. OU win and UD loss gets them 5th. OU win and UD win, or OU loss and YSU loss, gets them 6th. OU loss and YSU win puts them 7th. Youngstown State (12-8): Like OU, will finish between 5th and 7th. To get 5th, they need to upset NKU and have both UD and OU lose. If the win and only one of OU/UD win, they finish 6th. If they lose, or if they win and both OU and UD win, they finish 7th. UIC (8-10): #8 seed. Will host Milwaukee in first round. Milwaukee (8-13): #9 seed. Robert Morris (5-15): #10 seed. Green Bay (3-16): #11 seed. IUPUI (1-15) #12 seed. I think our most likely scenario is a #5 seed, hosting IUPUI and then playing at either PFW or WSU. UIC is not able to play in the HLT (I thought) so does that mean who ever gets them gets a bye? or the HLT going to change it up because of them and move their ranking to last?
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Post by JDetroitTitan on Feb 25, 2022 8:51:27 GMT -5
Cleveland State (15-5): #1 seed. First round bye. Purdue-Fort Wayne (14-6): Guaranteed first round bye. Clinches #2 seed with a win at Detroit. If they lose, they would fall behind NKU and WSU if those teams win their respective games against YSU and RMU. So 2-4 seed. Northern Kentucky (13-6): Guaranteed first round bye. Clinches at least a #3 seed by beating YSU. An NKU win and PFW loss gives them the #2 seed. If they lose, they would fall behind WSU if WSU beats Robert Morris. So 2-4 seed. Wright State (14-7): Clinch at least a #4 seed by beating RMU. If they win they will catch PFW and/or NKU if either team loses. If they lose, they will fall behind Detroit after we beat PFW. Wright State would have the anomaly of leading us by a half-game in the traditional standings (finishing 6 games over .500 to our 5 games over .500), but at 14-8 would have a .636 winning percentage to our .647. Still, it's RMU at home, so unfortunately for us, WSU looks pretty good for a top 4 seed. But they could finish anywhere from 2 to 5. Detroit (10-6): With a win and a WSU loss, Titans claim #4 seed and the final bye. If Titans win and WSU wins, Titans finish 5th and host IUPUI in the first round. If Titans lose, they will finish 5th (if both OU and YSU lose), 6th if one of OU/YSU win, and 7th if both win. The #6 seed will host Green Bay in the first round. The #7 seed hosts Robert Morris in the first round. Oakland (11-7): Will finish between 5th and 7th. OU win and UD loss gets them 5th. OU win and UD win, or OU loss and YSU loss, gets them 6th. OU loss and YSU win puts them 7th. Youngstown State (12-8): Like OU, will finish between 5th and 7th. To get 5th, they need to upset NKU and have both UD and OU lose. If the win and only one of OU/UD win, they finish 6th. If they lose, or if they win and both OU and UD win, they finish 7th. UIC (8-10): #8 seed. Will host Milwaukee in first round. Milwaukee (8-13): #9 seed. Robert Morris (5-15): #10 seed. Green Bay (3-16): #11 seed. IUPUI (1-15) #12 seed. I think our most likely scenario is a #5 seed, hosting IUPUI and then playing at either PFW or WSU. UIC is not able to play in the HLT (I thought) so does that mean who ever gets them gets a bye? or the HLT going to change it up because of them and move their ranking to last? I guess doing a google search before I chime in would help answer my question: www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/horizon-league-slams-illinois-chicago-but-will-allow-flames-to-play-in-its-conference-tournament-after-all/
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 25, 2022 9:38:36 GMT -5
Bad as they've been, Milwaukee has wins over Northern Kentucky, Wright State, and Oakland. Should be a crazy tournament.
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Post by uofdfan1983 on Feb 25, 2022 10:51:57 GMT -5
Commish, 2 questions: 1. If UIC's ban had stuck (the League should have maintained the ban, in my opinion) leaving 11 teams would that have changed the structure of the first 2 rounds and given us a Quarterfinal Home Game (assuming we finish #5)? 2. If both U-D and NKU win tomorrow, we will finish .003 percentage points behind them and get seeded lower than them even though we beat them twice (is that correct?) If so, even one more home game vs. GB or UIPUWHEE would have given us a better winning percentage and thus given us a bye/Quarterfinal Home Game over NKU. In a normal season, we would have the tie-breaker with NKU.
Once again, elements beyond our control put us in a tough situation. Arguably, our only major League blemish (that's assuming we beat UPWPUPUPU tomorrow) that is hard to ignore is losing on the road to a bad GB team. Wondering if anyone in the Top 4 has a blemish that large on their record.
The only solution is to suck it up and take care of business ourselves. Really hoping AD, Waterman & Isiani are 100% by Tuesday and that maybe/somehow Akec could give us even 5-10 minutes by Thursday Night.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 25, 2022 11:10:12 GMT -5
Commish, 2 questions: 1. If UIC's ban had stuck (the League should have maintained the ban, in my opinion) leaving 11 teams would that have changed the structure of the first 2 rounds and given us a Quarterfinal Home Game (assuming we finish #5)? 2. If both U-D and NKU win tomorrow, we will finish .003 percentage points behind them and get seeded lower than them even though we beat them twice (is that correct?) If so, even one more home game vs. GB or UIPUWHEE would have given us a better winning percentage and thus given us a bye/Quarterfinal Home Game over NKU. In a normal season, we would have the tie-breaker with NKU. Once again, elements beyond our control put us in a tough situation. Arguably, our only major League blemish (that's assuming we beat UPWPUPUPU tomorrow) that is hard to ignore is losing on the road to a bad GB team. Wondering if anyone in the Top 4 has a blemish that large on their record. The only solution is to suck it up and take care of business ourselves. Really hoping AD, Waterman & Isiani are 100% by Tuesday and that maybe/somehow Akec could give us even 5-10 minutes by Thursday Night. The first question is beyond even my nerd-dom. The second is indeed how I understand it, and yes, we've been royally screwed. Of course, if the league used a magic formula like last year (when its use penalized us) we'd probably nab a seed above NKU.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 25, 2022 11:19:32 GMT -5
I think sans UIC, a 5th place finish would have resulted in a first round bye, but no quarterfinal home game (those would have still gone to the top four finishers). I believe what was proposed for an eleven-team field was a first round where the bottom six seeds would be paired in the preliminary round, the three winners joining the 5th seed as road teams for the quarterfinals.
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Post by fan on Feb 25, 2022 12:36:28 GMT -5
This team on any given night has the ability to beat every team in the league. The team is playing well and seems to be peaking at the right, so they could win the league and go to the dance. But with the team's weak W/L record they could get boxed into a play-in game, but if these games are still played in Dayton this could be a chance to see UDM play in the NCAA Tourney.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 25, 2022 12:43:16 GMT -5
This team on any given night has the ability to beat every team in the league. The team is playing well and seems to be peaking at the right, so they could win the league and go to the dance. But with the team's weak W/L record they could get boxed into a play-in game, but if these games are still played in Dayton this could be a chance to see UDM play in the NCAA Tourney. A play-in game might in some ways be better than getting clobbered in a 1 versus 16 mismatch. And if you win the play-in game and move on for the next game, it doubles the league’s NCAA revenue shares compared to a one-and-done outcome.
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Post by fan on Feb 25, 2022 13:17:31 GMT -5
I think your right, same thing with not having a bye in the HL, a first game win will add to the W/L record. I did realize the play-in games get a full $ share.
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Post by uofdfan1983 on Feb 25, 2022 13:32:44 GMT -5
So, a Play-In Win earns a full $$ share same as any other NCAA Tourney Win?
I've heard the Horizon gives the representative school 50% of the earnings, and the remaining schools split the other 50% ?? (that's after our lovely useless bunch in Indy HQ take their cut first). Of course that money is passed out in chunks over several years to each school. Anyone know if UIC is cut off from funds from this year's earnings? I would assume so, but since they're not screaming from the tallest tree about it, maybe not...
I used to feel sorry for the teams from those crappy leagues who had to be in the Play-In. I remember worrying about getting at least a #12 seed, which is usually what you need to have a realistic chance at an upset. Now that our League has become one of "those" crappy leagues, I just want in the Tourney and would be fine with a Play-In Game. It would be a real chance to win a game, make at least a tiny notch on the national scene, showcase our All-America candidate....and maybe give the guys who still have a year left a taste of the Big Time that might leave some of them wanting to come back next year, have a solid season front-to-back and give themselves a decent chance to make some "real" noise in the traditional Thurs/Fri opening round.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 25, 2022 14:01:42 GMT -5
So, a Play-In Win earns a full $$ share same as any other NCAA Tourney Win? I've heard the Horizon gives the representative school 50% of the earnings, and the remaining schools split the other 50% ?? (that's after our lovely useless bunch in Indy HQ take their cut first). Of course that money is passed out in chunks over several years to each school. Anyone know if UIC is cut off from funds from this year's earnings? I would assume so, but since they're not screaming from the tallest tree about it, maybe not... I used to feel sorry for the teams from those crappy leagues who had to be in the Play-In. I remember worrying about getting at least a #12 seed, which is usually what you need to have a realistic chance at an upset. Now that our League has become one of "those" crappy leagues, I just want in the Tourney and would be fine with a Play-In Game. It would be a real chance to win a game, make at least a tiny notch on the national scene, showcase our All-America candidate....and maybe give the guys who still have a year left a taste of the Big Time that might leave some of them wanting to come back next year, have a solid season front-to-back and give themselves a decent chance to make some "real" noise in the traditional Thurs/Fri opening round. That’s my understanding, winning a play-in game is financially as advantageous to a conference as winning a “first round” game. As to distribution of revenue among Horizon teams, I believe the participating school gets a double share. So in a 12 team setup, you divide the pot into 13 shares. The team that received the bid gets 2/13ths of the loot, the other schools 1/13th each. Never heard about the representing team getting a 50% share, would be surprised if that was ever the case. I think individual conferences are free to come up with their own distribution formulas, this is not dictated by the NCAA. I’m pretty sure UIC will get or has already received a distribution this fiscal year, but will receive no part of the Horizon’s aggregate shares after formally exiting the conference, I believe at the end of June 2022. Things change from year to year, some of what I’ve outlined above may be different for current year, don’t have references for any of this.
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Post by fan on Feb 25, 2022 14:16:16 GMT -5
That play in share is strange, you would think number 1 or 2 seeds would request a playing game for the payday.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 25, 2022 14:19:08 GMT -5
That play in share is strange, you would think number 1 or 2 seeds would request a playing game for the payday. Selection Committee makes all seeding decisions, no school (even a number 1 seed) can request placement in a particular part of the bracket.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 25, 2022 15:52:57 GMT -5
Ok, here are pure Titan scenarios:
1. Best: We win, WSU is upset by Robert Morris. We get a first round bye and host WSU (or, theoretically, IUPUI) in the quarterfinals.
2. We win and WSU wins, giving us the #5 seed (this is also the result if we lose and both YSU and OU lose). We host IUPUI in the first round (hopefully jump on them early and give plenty of rest to AD, Willy, and Waterman), and then play at the #4 seed in the quarters. That #4 seed would be PFW if Northern Kentucky beats YSU on Saturday; or NKU if they lose to YSU.
3. We lose, and one of OU/YSU gets a win. That would drop us to the #6 seed, and we would host Green Bay in the first round. Barring a major upset in the opening round, we would then play at the #3 seed in the quarterfinals. That would be NKU if they beat YSU, or WSU if NKU loses to YSU and WSU beats Robert Morris.
4. We lose, and both OU and YSU win. That would drop us to a #7 seed, and we would host Robert Morris in the first round, followed--again, barring a major upset in the first round-- by a game at the #2 seed, which would be PFW.
In the end we've got to beat everyone to win the tournament. Honestly, I don't see a huge difference between being the #5, 6, or 7 seed. It would be nice to grab the #4, but I don't really see WSU losing. But they only beat Robert Morris by two in Pittsburgh, and they did lose (on the road) to Milwaukee, so maybe. WSU is 10-3 at home (one win over a non-D1 team; 8-2 in conference) and I'd rather not have to play them. Northern Kentucky is 10-4 at home (two wins over non-D1; 6-2 in conference). PFW is 13-2 at home (1 win against non D-1, 9-2 in conference). They've won 8 straight at home.
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