Reviewing the possibilities:
The PrizeBelmontBelmont is obviously the prize if the Horizon expands. And Belmont really ought to be in the Horizon. In the Ohio Valley, it is the lone private in a league of state schools; it is an urban school in a league of rural and small town schools; it is one of just three OVC teams (with Morehead State and SIU-Edwardsville) that does not play football in the OVC. It's basketball budget is 46% greater than that of Murray State (2nd largest in the conference) and double that of every other OVC team. In the Horizon it would join at least a pair of other private schools in Detroit and Valpo; join other metropolitan schools; be in a basketball first league; it's budget would be very competitive (2nd largest in the Horizon) but more in line with its conference brethren. The only drawback, it seems is geography.
For all the same reasons, it's a great fit for the Horizon. It also sponsors baseball, which the Horizon wants in a new member. It's even good at baseball, having just won the OVC this spring. It's brings the Horizon a new, major metropolitan area. The University has some money and it has ambition. It is a great fit with Valpo and Detroit, which would like more privates of similar size. It has good facilities. It has fielded very good basketball teams for several years now, giving it some national recognition. The only warning at all is that Belmont's average attendance leveled off this year at just over 2700, even as they again fielded a very good team. That may suggest a topside to fan interest in the program - or it may not - but even if that's it, that not dragging the Horizon down. And the only real problem is that it expands the league's footprint more than the league might want, especially if they can't bring in another southern team. Reportedly, Belmont also wants a southern partner. But it's worth trying to get Belmont with or without a partner.
Other than geography, the only thing that might hold back Belmont is the hope of something "better." But what would be "better"? The Atlantic 10, for sure, but that is a much more sprawling conference, and already has 14 teams. The Missouri Valley would also pose travel issues, but that would be a reasonable option for Belmont, and they may think it preferable.
We should be working hard for Belmont. Offer to let them host the conference tournament for two or three seasons. Help with exit fees from the OVC. If the Horizon is going to expand, we want Belmont.
The Top Tier:EvansvilleCould an old Horizon member become a new Horizon member? Personally, I'm skeptical that Evansville would leave the MVC (unless that league had major problems develop) but there's reason to think that it was actually on the table a while back, and that maybe Evansville really does feel overmatched in the Valley. Evansville adds a private school, it continues to draw reasonably well (high 4000s) though its attendance has been declining for some time, it provides a presence in Southern Indiana, and its reasonably close to the school we really want, Belmont. It has baseball. It's budget is 7th of 10 MVC schools, but would rank second in the current Horizon, slightly ahead of Cleveland State. It has at least some history and tradition, though it's had just 2 winning seasons in 14 years. My own sense is that Evansville would have been a possibility had the Horizon moved quickly when it still had Butler (and to a much lesser extent, Loyola); now it's unlikely to move. But if it were to move, it would be a good solid addition.
Murray StateThe rumor was that the Horizon nearly added Belmont, Evansville and Murray State in 2012. I don't know. I am very skeptical that Murray State would actually move.
Murray State does have an upside. Again, you get a southern partner for Belmont, and a basketball program that has developed into a small college power over the past three decades. There's baseball. But I don't think Murray is the plum some seem to think. First, it's in the middle of nowhere, not any kind of metropolitan market. Academically it does nothing for the conference. It's basketball chops may be a bit overrated - certainly it's a strong program, but it's attendance, after peaking above 6000 as they won over 30 games a couple years ago, was back below 4000 this year. It's budget, which is second largest in the OVC, would put it in the bottom three if it joined the Horizon. Don't get me wrong - Murray's a good program with some name recognition - I just don't think it's as good as some do. They've never shown a desire to devote more to basketball - they seem happy to dominate the OVC, make the NCAAs with some regularity (though just twice in the last 8 years), and usually lose in the first round (they made 10 total appearances between 1988 and 2009 losing in the first round all 10 times. They have won their first round game in each of their two appearances since, in 2010 and 2012. They have football, they're committed to it, and that's a big problem. It's not clear that the OVC will let them stay as a football only member.
To be clear, if Murray wanted to come, I'd happily take them. I'm skeptical they really would want to make the move, and don't see them as the eye-popping addition I'd pull out all the stops to get.
DuquesneI can't imagine that Duquesne would come over from the A10. They did it once before, and scurried back.
The ImprobableDenverYes, Denver. I'm going to admit, this is really just my idiosyncratic pick - I don't know that I've heard anyone mention them. And yet... Denver is in the Summit - they can clearly step up with a move to the Horizon. And what a great pickup they would be. Private, a current budget that would put them at the top of the league, but barely ahead of Detroit and in the general class of the league's schools, unlike in the Summit, where their budget is substantially higher than anybody else. They've been very competitive in recent years, and drawn well attendance-wise. It would be a good new urban market. The small drawback is no baseball. The big drawback, obviously, is geography. Improbable - obviously. But I don't really think any more improbable than Duquesne. Duquesne doesn't have the geographic issue, but unlike Duquesne, there are strong reasons for Denver to join the Horizon. So if everyone can suggest Duquesne, I can suggest Denver. They would be a great addition in every way but one.
The Logical ChoiceNorthern KentuckyThis seems so logical it's hard to believe it won't eventually happen. NKU wants in - at least when they did their study on moving up to D-I, the Horizon was identified as the conference they would most want to join. They give the Horizon a renewed presence in the Cincinnati market and a toehold in Kentucky for recruiting. Yes, their presence in both markets is marginal, but it's something to work with. They would immediately have the swankiest facilities in the conference. They play baseball. They might even lower travel costs because they would give a logical travel partner to Wright State. Though their attendance declined a lot in 2014, in 2013 they averaged over 3500 per game, and always drew well as a D-II program. While they're not the type of university Detroit (and Valpo) might like, they fit well with the other second tier state universities that make up the Horizon. Their basketball budget would be the league's smallest to start, but it's within reason and almost certainly will grow.
For NKU, the move would raise their prestige from the Atlantic Sun and dramatically lower travel costs from those incurred in that sprawling conference. You take NKU for potential. It's a gimme.
The Second TierMorehead StateWhile Horizon watchers dream of Murray State, Morehead State may be the more logical, and more likely expansion target. Though not the power Murray State is, Morehead has in recent years been one of the better teams in the OVC, with four 20 win seasons in the last 6 years. They have some of the drawbacks of Murray State - tiny market, hard to get to - but unlike Murray, they don't play OVC football--rather, they are in the non-scholarship Pioneer League, with Valpo among others. That makes them both an outlier in the OVC and less of a problem for Horizon expansion. Like NKU and Murray, they fit in well enough with the YSUs, WSUs, Milwaukees, and OUs of the Horizon. Their $1.24 million budget is smaller than any existing Horizon school, but not by much. Given a choice, I'd take Murray. But because of football, Morehead may be the more likely option. They'd be OK.
Robert MorrisThis school has been discussed for some time as a possible target. Without a big expansion of the conference's footprint, it gets the league a toe hold in the Pittsburgh market and Pennsylvania recruiting. It's budget is just larger than YSUs, but Robt. Morris recently dropped several small sports to allow it to put more funds into basketball and other remaining sports. Unfortunately, baseball is one of the sports they've dropped. Robert Morris has had 9 consecutive winning seasons on the hardood, with six 20 win seasons in the last 7 years. They've scored big NIT victories over Kentucky and St. John's the last two seasons. As a selective, private school with about 5000 students, they'd give UD and Valpo the warm fuzzies. There are a lot of pluses here.
Canisius and
NiagaraThe Horizon could do a lot worse than look east to these two Buffalo area schools (including re-centering the Conference eastward with these two and Robert Morris in a 3-pack). Buffalo ain't the major city it used to be, but it's still a respectable metro area. And geographically it's not a big reach at all. It's a very reasonable distance from Detroit and Oakland, and closer to CSU and YSU than any schools west or south of metro Detroit. Both of these schools are ghosts of once proud programs, but they have some alumni base and history. Both play baseball. Added as a pair, they are, of course, natural rivals and travel partners. They both offer budgets in the bottom half of the Horizon but certainly competitive. Canisius has had a bit of a rejuvenation under coach Jim Baron the last couple years, winning 20 games and making CIT appearances each of the last two years. Niagara, after a stretch of 12 winning season in 13 years, including a 26 win season, a couple NCAA bids, and a couple NIT bids, has struggled a bit since 2010, but they did win the MAAC regular season title and make an NIT appearance in 2013. Their facilities are a problem.
LipscombLipscomb? Sure, why not Lipscomb? Despite its ugly sounding and largely unknown name, Lipscomb is a solid expansion candidate if it can help entice Belmont. The two schools are longtime Nashville rivals and natural travel partners. Lipscomb has a solid commitment to basketball, spending over $1.7 million in 2013, about midway between UIC (#6 in conference) and Oakland (#7). They play baseball. As part of package looking south, they'd do.
LongshotsUMKCDoes the Horizon want to expand its footprint all the way to Missouri for UMKC? Probably not. Mainly UMKC brings a major metro market, and a cool nickname (the Kangaroos). They could come into play as part of a western strategy that might involve my long-long shot Denver, another really long shot I didn't even list in the post above - Oral Roberts - and...
OmahaThey're still in transition, and they'll have to dramatically increase their commitment to the sport. But the league just could decide to swing west. If they do, well, like UMKC, Omaha gives you a major metro market. Unlike UMKC, Omaha offers baseball.
IPFWWord is that Horizon presidents have already nixed this idea, but that could change. Obviously a tight geographic fit in the conference, a metro market (if a relatively small one), and they play baseball. They had a good year in 2014, with a school record 24 wins, but with their 6-figure budget its really not at all clear that they can compete in the Horizon. They'd need to guarantee a bigger commitment. Their on-campus coliseum, Gates Arena, is too small (2700 seating) but they can play in the capacious Memorial Hall in Fort Wayne. Most Horizon fans hate the idea of IPFW, but geography and baseball keep them on the possibilities list.
We're really not interestedIUPUICould Commissioner LeCrone really convince the presidents to do this? Probably not. While it would be nice to get back into the Indy market, IUPUI? C'mon. They would have the smallest budget in the league, and can't break 1000 in average attendance. They don't even have the baseball.
Chicago StateThese guys would love to get in, and they've got a nice facility. But basically Chicago State is a commuter school, and they simply stink at basketball.
SIU-EdwardsvilleWho? A recent D-I entry, the Cougars are 38-76 in four seasons in D-I. They are probably the strongest of this bottom tier of candidates, simply because they have a bit more potential. Edwardsville is in the perimeter of the St. Louis metro area, and has a pretty, sprawling, nearly 3000 acre campus. They have baseball. They play at the Vadabalene Center, a smallish (4000 capacity), 30 year old, nondescript arena. Their budget is barely half that of YSU, so between Vadabalene and that they'd really have to promise a big commitment to upgrading the program.
Western IllinoisToo far west for little to offer, though they do have baseball.
Eastern IllinoisLess to offer than Western Illinois, but a bit better geographic fit. Also has baseball.