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Post by Commissioner on Apr 9, 2014 20:21:02 GMT -5
I've listed in the table below about every school I think is even remotely a candidate for Horizon expansion. I've also listed just direct basketball-related performance criteria - budget and three year average RPI and attendance. Obviously geography, facilities, size, public/private mix, APR, and other factors come into play. But I'm just looking here at how they seem to fit in in terms of immediate commitment to basketball (budget) and recent success, as reflected in RPI and attendance. I start with the Horizon schools, at the top, and then list various candidates. School | Budget (2013) | 3 Yr. RPI | 3 Yr. Attend. | Cleveland State | $2,189,220 | 125.0 | 2554 | Detroit | $2,507,046 | 140.3 | 2326 | Green Bay | $1,399,814 | 121.3 | 3376 | Milwaukee | $1,925,114 | 186.0 | 3089 | Oakland | $1,728,287 | 158.3 | 2900 | UIC | $1,839,018 | 259.3 | 2906 | Valparaiso | $2,001,213 | 115.3 | 3130 | Wright State | $2,029,536 | 177.7 | 3935 | Youngstown State | $1,323,788 | 197.7 | 2421 | Belmont | $2,383,453 | 47.7 | 2488 | Evansville | $2,254,434 | 148.7 | 4715 | Murray State | $1,633,967 | 93.3 | 5003 | Northern Kentucky | $1,172,537 | 291.0 | 2397 | Morehead State | $1,237,720 | 161.0 | 2327 | Omaha | $857,386 | 249.5 | 1135 | UMKC | $1,535,381 | 267.0 | 1407 | Denver | $2,597,855 | 100.7 | 3964 | IUPUI | $1,273,095 | 285.7 | 850 | Chicago State | $902,203 | 306 | 726 | IPFW | $978,815 | 216.0 | 1336 | SIU-Edwardsville | $728,745 | 309.7 | 1743 | Western Illinois | $1,095,048 | 190.3 | 1786 | Eastern Illinois | $1,065,620 | 286.3 | 1097 | Lipscomb | $1,786,101 | 222.7 | 2010 | Robert Morris | $1,347,565 | 119.0 | 1374 | Duquesne | $3,551,737 | 173.7 | 3168 | Canisius | $1,681,925 | 180.7 | 1490 | Niagara | $1,529,288 | 207.7 | 1547 |
I'm assuming here that that MVC won't start to fall apart, which would open up Drake and Bradley as candidates. I've included Denver - other than geography, they'd be a great fit, so I've listed them as a personal fave. Omaha and UMKC are a pretty good geographic reach, but I've seen their names bandied about, so they make the cut. Other teams that might be worth considering would include James Madison from the Colonial (but they've got football) or Georgia State. For my money, the odds of Duquesne leaving the A10 are somewhere between .000003% and 0, but again, I've seen them mentioned with some frequency, so I put them in the table. Other OVC schools might be faint possibilities, or going hard east with not only Niagara and Canisius but trying for Siena or Stony Brook.
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 10, 2014 9:55:45 GMT -5
So why should the Horizon consider expansion? It's worth revisiting before evaluating candidates further. I see the following reasons, not necessarily in order of priority:
1. Strengthen the conference on the court. If the conference puts a better product on the court by adding good programs, if may spur other programs to devote more resources to the product, or to be less tolerant of mediocrity (that means you, Youngstown). A better product can mean more media attention, a couple more TV games, a bit more exposure, a bit more credibility at tournament selection time. Some frame the goal as to make it more likely that the league gets at-large bids to the NCAA tournament, but I think that is the wrong question. I don't think there is a single team on the list whose addition would move the Horizon from a "one bid league" to a multi-bid league. (Would the best of the lot this year, Belmont, have gotten an at-large bid playing a Horizon schedule? Even leaving aside that they might have lost a few more games, I think the answer is no. Would Green Bay have gotten in with a couple victories over Belmont rather than two of its weaker non-conference games? Maybe, but I suspect not. And with a loss to Belmont in one of those game, almost certainly not.) Becoming a "multi-bid league," then, is a long term process of improving the product. Expanding by adding strong programs is one way, but not the only way, of doing that.
2. Improve Attendance. Conference games tend to draw better than non-conference games. A strong program that fans want to see can also improve attendance.
3. Make scheduling easier. Non-conference scheduling is always difficult for mid-majors, so adding two or more conference games would be a plus. Also, getting to an even number of 10 or 12 teams would allow travel partners again, which may reduce travel costs and also make scheduling easier for fans to follow.
4. Add Markets and media attention. The right programs might increase media attention, especially if you can enter larger markets, or develop a forceful presence in mid-sized markets.
5. Strengthen Recruiting. Expanding the conference into new geographic areas can open up those areas for recruiting as HS players become more familiar with the conference and its members, and know they will get to play before their hometowns.
6. Protect the conference from poaching. The Horizon is quite a stable conference, actually, even with the recent departures of Butler and Loyola. I really don't see any team leaving. Detroit fans long for the A10 or even the Big East or, if necessary, the MVC, but none of those bids are likely soon. Milwaukee fans talk of adding football and joining... what, the Big 12? CUSA? Valpo and UIC probably lost any MVC hopes when that conference chose Loyola. Most of these teams simply have no where to go. That said, suppose YSU left for a football conference, or Wright State looked to a southern oriented baseball conference? Whatever distant possibilities are out there, going to 10 or 12 members can protect the league from unexpected defections.
7. Strengthen other athletic programs. Of particular concern is baseball, the Horizon's #2 sport, which could lose its automatic bid if any one of the baseball playing members left the conference.
8. Add similar schools. Conference affiliations often go far beyond athletics. Conferences frequently engage in a wide variety of academic and other exchanges. Schools also become associated in the public mind with the schools in their conference, which can affect visibility, student recruitment and more.
9. Build brand and image. Adding the right schools can strengthen the league's brand and image - that simple.
Of course some of these overlap and work together, and there may be others, or other ways of framing the above considerations. But that's the framework in which we should consider expansion and expansion candidates.
With that in mind, I do think that the conference should expand. Ten or 12 member conferences just seem to work better in terms of scheduling, if nothing else. But obviously, adding the right member or members could assist many of the above goals. I'll give my thoughts on potential candidates for expansion in further posts.
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 13, 2014 21:30:48 GMT -5
Reviewing the possibilities:
The Prize Belmont Belmont is obviously the prize if the Horizon expands. And Belmont really ought to be in the Horizon. In the Ohio Valley, it is the lone private in a league of state schools; it is an urban school in a league of rural and small town schools; it is one of just three OVC teams (with Morehead State and SIU-Edwardsville) that does not play football in the OVC. It's basketball budget is 46% greater than that of Murray State (2nd largest in the conference) and double that of every other OVC team. In the Horizon it would join at least a pair of other private schools in Detroit and Valpo; join other metropolitan schools; be in a basketball first league; it's budget would be very competitive (2nd largest in the Horizon) but more in line with its conference brethren. The only drawback, it seems is geography.
For all the same reasons, it's a great fit for the Horizon. It also sponsors baseball, which the Horizon wants in a new member. It's even good at baseball, having just won the OVC this spring. It's brings the Horizon a new, major metropolitan area. The University has some money and it has ambition. It is a great fit with Valpo and Detroit, which would like more privates of similar size. It has good facilities. It has fielded very good basketball teams for several years now, giving it some national recognition. The only warning at all is that Belmont's average attendance leveled off this year at just over 2700, even as they again fielded a very good team. That may suggest a topside to fan interest in the program - or it may not - but even if that's it, that not dragging the Horizon down. And the only real problem is that it expands the league's footprint more than the league might want, especially if they can't bring in another southern team. Reportedly, Belmont also wants a southern partner. But it's worth trying to get Belmont with or without a partner.
Other than geography, the only thing that might hold back Belmont is the hope of something "better." But what would be "better"? The Atlantic 10, for sure, but that is a much more sprawling conference, and already has 14 teams. The Missouri Valley would also pose travel issues, but that would be a reasonable option for Belmont, and they may think it preferable.
We should be working hard for Belmont. Offer to let them host the conference tournament for two or three seasons. Help with exit fees from the OVC. If the Horizon is going to expand, we want Belmont.
The Top Tier:
Evansville Could an old Horizon member become a new Horizon member? Personally, I'm skeptical that Evansville would leave the MVC (unless that league had major problems develop) but there's reason to think that it was actually on the table a while back, and that maybe Evansville really does feel overmatched in the Valley. Evansville adds a private school, it continues to draw reasonably well (high 4000s) though its attendance has been declining for some time, it provides a presence in Southern Indiana, and its reasonably close to the school we really want, Belmont. It has baseball. It's budget is 7th of 10 MVC schools, but would rank second in the current Horizon, slightly ahead of Cleveland State. It has at least some history and tradition, though it's had just 2 winning seasons in 14 years. My own sense is that Evansville would have been a possibility had the Horizon moved quickly when it still had Butler (and to a much lesser extent, Loyola); now it's unlikely to move. But if it were to move, it would be a good solid addition.
Murray State The rumor was that the Horizon nearly added Belmont, Evansville and Murray State in 2012. I don't know. I am very skeptical that Murray State would actually move.
Murray State does have an upside. Again, you get a southern partner for Belmont, and a basketball program that has developed into a small college power over the past three decades. There's baseball. But I don't think Murray is the plum some seem to think. First, it's in the middle of nowhere, not any kind of metropolitan market. Academically it does nothing for the conference. It's basketball chops may be a bit overrated - certainly it's a strong program, but it's attendance, after peaking above 6000 as they won over 30 games a couple years ago, was back below 4000 this year. It's budget, which is second largest in the OVC, would put it in the bottom three if it joined the Horizon. Don't get me wrong - Murray's a good program with some name recognition - I just don't think it's as good as some do. They've never shown a desire to devote more to basketball - they seem happy to dominate the OVC, make the NCAAs with some regularity (though just twice in the last 8 years), and usually lose in the first round (they made 10 total appearances between 1988 and 2009 losing in the first round all 10 times. They have won their first round game in each of their two appearances since, in 2010 and 2012. They have football, they're committed to it, and that's a big problem. It's not clear that the OVC will let them stay as a football only member.
To be clear, if Murray wanted to come, I'd happily take them. I'm skeptical they really would want to make the move, and don't see them as the eye-popping addition I'd pull out all the stops to get.
Duquesne I can't imagine that Duquesne would come over from the A10. They did it once before, and scurried back.
The Improbable
Denver Yes, Denver. I'm going to admit, this is really just my idiosyncratic pick - I don't know that I've heard anyone mention them. And yet... Denver is in the Summit - they can clearly step up with a move to the Horizon. And what a great pickup they would be. Private, a current budget that would put them at the top of the league, but barely ahead of Detroit and in the general class of the league's schools, unlike in the Summit, where their budget is substantially higher than anybody else. They've been very competitive in recent years, and drawn well attendance-wise. It would be a good new urban market. The small drawback is no baseball. The big drawback, obviously, is geography. Improbable - obviously. But I don't really think any more improbable than Duquesne. Duquesne doesn't have the geographic issue, but unlike Duquesne, there are strong reasons for Denver to join the Horizon. So if everyone can suggest Duquesne, I can suggest Denver. They would be a great addition in every way but one.
The Logical Choice
Northern Kentucky This seems so logical it's hard to believe it won't eventually happen. NKU wants in - at least when they did their study on moving up to D-I, the Horizon was identified as the conference they would most want to join. They give the Horizon a renewed presence in the Cincinnati market and a toehold in Kentucky for recruiting. Yes, their presence in both markets is marginal, but it's something to work with. They would immediately have the swankiest facilities in the conference. They play baseball. They might even lower travel costs because they would give a logical travel partner to Wright State. Though their attendance declined a lot in 2014, in 2013 they averaged over 3500 per game, and always drew well as a D-II program. While they're not the type of university Detroit (and Valpo) might like, they fit well with the other second tier state universities that make up the Horizon. Their basketball budget would be the league's smallest to start, but it's within reason and almost certainly will grow.
For NKU, the move would raise their prestige from the Atlantic Sun and dramatically lower travel costs from those incurred in that sprawling conference. You take NKU for potential. It's a gimme.
The Second Tier
Morehead State While Horizon watchers dream of Murray State, Morehead State may be the more logical, and more likely expansion target. Though not the power Murray State is, Morehead has in recent years been one of the better teams in the OVC, with four 20 win seasons in the last 6 years. They have some of the drawbacks of Murray State - tiny market, hard to get to - but unlike Murray, they don't play OVC football--rather, they are in the non-scholarship Pioneer League, with Valpo among others. That makes them both an outlier in the OVC and less of a problem for Horizon expansion. Like NKU and Murray, they fit in well enough with the YSUs, WSUs, Milwaukees, and OUs of the Horizon. Their $1.24 million budget is smaller than any existing Horizon school, but not by much. Given a choice, I'd take Murray. But because of football, Morehead may be the more likely option. They'd be OK.
Robert Morris This school has been discussed for some time as a possible target. Without a big expansion of the conference's footprint, it gets the league a toe hold in the Pittsburgh market and Pennsylvania recruiting. It's budget is just larger than YSUs, but Robt. Morris recently dropped several small sports to allow it to put more funds into basketball and other remaining sports. Unfortunately, baseball is one of the sports they've dropped. Robert Morris has had 9 consecutive winning seasons on the hardood, with six 20 win seasons in the last 7 years. They've scored big NIT victories over Kentucky and St. John's the last two seasons. As a selective, private school with about 5000 students, they'd give UD and Valpo the warm fuzzies. There are a lot of pluses here.
Canisius and Niagara The Horizon could do a lot worse than look east to these two Buffalo area schools (including re-centering the Conference eastward with these two and Robert Morris in a 3-pack). Buffalo ain't the major city it used to be, but it's still a respectable metro area. And geographically it's not a big reach at all. It's a very reasonable distance from Detroit and Oakland, and closer to CSU and YSU than any schools west or south of metro Detroit. Both of these schools are ghosts of once proud programs, but they have some alumni base and history. Both play baseball. Added as a pair, they are, of course, natural rivals and travel partners. They both offer budgets in the bottom half of the Horizon but certainly competitive. Canisius has had a bit of a rejuvenation under coach Jim Baron the last couple years, winning 20 games and making CIT appearances each of the last two years. Niagara, after a stretch of 12 winning season in 13 years, including a 26 win season, a couple NCAA bids, and a couple NIT bids, has struggled a bit since 2010, but they did win the MAAC regular season title and make an NIT appearance in 2013. Their facilities are a problem.
Lipscomb Lipscomb? Sure, why not Lipscomb? Despite its ugly sounding and largely unknown name, Lipscomb is a solid expansion candidate if it can help entice Belmont. The two schools are longtime Nashville rivals and natural travel partners. Lipscomb has a solid commitment to basketball, spending over $1.7 million in 2013, about midway between UIC (#6 in conference) and Oakland (#7). They play baseball. As part of package looking south, they'd do.
Longshots
UMKC Does the Horizon want to expand its footprint all the way to Missouri for UMKC? Probably not. Mainly UMKC brings a major metro market, and a cool nickname (the Kangaroos). They could come into play as part of a western strategy that might involve my long-long shot Denver, another really long shot I didn't even list in the post above - Oral Roberts - and...
Omaha They're still in transition, and they'll have to dramatically increase their commitment to the sport. But the league just could decide to swing west. If they do, well, like UMKC, Omaha gives you a major metro market. Unlike UMKC, Omaha offers baseball.
IPFW Word is that Horizon presidents have already nixed this idea, but that could change. Obviously a tight geographic fit in the conference, a metro market (if a relatively small one), and they play baseball. They had a good year in 2014, with a school record 24 wins, but with their 6-figure budget its really not at all clear that they can compete in the Horizon. They'd need to guarantee a bigger commitment. Their on-campus coliseum, Gates Arena, is too small (2700 seating) but they can play in the capacious Memorial Hall in Fort Wayne. Most Horizon fans hate the idea of IPFW, but geography and baseball keep them on the possibilities list.
We're really not interested
IUPUI Could Commissioner LeCrone really convince the presidents to do this? Probably not. While it would be nice to get back into the Indy market, IUPUI? C'mon. They would have the smallest budget in the league, and can't break 1000 in average attendance. They don't even have the baseball.
Chicago State These guys would love to get in, and they've got a nice facility. But basically Chicago State is a commuter school, and they simply stink at basketball.
SIU-Edwardsville Who? A recent D-I entry, the Cougars are 38-76 in four seasons in D-I. They are probably the strongest of this bottom tier of candidates, simply because they have a bit more potential. Edwardsville is in the perimeter of the St. Louis metro area, and has a pretty, sprawling, nearly 3000 acre campus. They have baseball. They play at the Vadabalene Center, a smallish (4000 capacity), 30 year old, nondescript arena. Their budget is barely half that of YSU, so between Vadabalene and that they'd really have to promise a big commitment to upgrading the program.
Western Illinois Too far west for little to offer, though they do have baseball.
Eastern Illinois Less to offer than Western Illinois, but a bit better geographic fit. Also has baseball.
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Post by Commissioner on Aug 1, 2014 16:09:14 GMT -5
Future Horizon League member Northern Kentucky has a home game this year with West Virginia. A bit of a coup for a new D-I program like the Norse.
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Post by mooseguy1 on Aug 2, 2014 17:43:03 GMT -5
Are you pretty sure that NKU is going to happen?
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Post by mooseguy1 on Aug 2, 2014 18:32:44 GMT -5
My two cents: Along with Belmont, I'd like to get Evansville. It's an interesting program with a history that runs the gamut from fairly successful to unbelievably tragic (see this link for more information: libraryonline.erau.edu/online-full-text/ntsb/aircraft-accident-reports/AAR78-10.pdf.) Also, it's a private religious university, which would seem to be a better fit for us. For the most part, the Purple Aces (LA Lakers colors) are the only game in town (outside of some semi-pro and minor league sports) for a mid-sized city that is kind of off the beaten path at the far southern tip of Indiana, a little under 500 miles from Detroit. It would expand the geographic footprint of the HL but, comparatively speaking, is a bit further than our current conference foes. But, as the Commissioner points out, if Belmont would like to join with another southern tier partner, Evansville is only about a 2 1/2 to 3 hour ride from Nashville. The 153 mile distance is about 30 minutes more than the 117 miles between Milwaukee and Green Bay, making a 2 game road trip manageable for the Titans and other HL teams. An Evansville and Nashville southern swing would certainly be more economical than a KC and Denver trip, which would be 1400 miles one-way. KC alone is nearly 800 miles from Detroit, almost as far as Augusta or Macon, Georgia. Adding another 600 out I-70 to Denver would necessitate 3 airplane flight segments. On the other hand, Kansas City, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated cities in the USA and would make a great road trip for Titans fans. Denver (which, for the record, I think is an overrated city) undeniably has a certain cache for many in the flatlands of the Midwest even though the mountains are outside the city, which sits on a flat plateau. Taken as a whole, I would prefer Evansville and Belmont.
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Post by Commissioner on Aug 2, 2014 19:31:37 GMT -5
Are you pretty sure that NKU is going to happen? I don't have any inside info or even public pronouncements - it just seems to me that it's a solid fit, NKU's original D-I study suggested that the Horizon would be their preferred conference choice, and the way LeCrone has run the league, it seems like who he would try to get. It's a bit of a running joke I use - I always refer to NKU as a future member. And I guess I think they are as likely as anyone else.
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Post by mooseguy1 on Aug 2, 2014 20:49:28 GMT -5
Are you pretty sure that NKU is going to happen? I don't have any inside info or even public pronouncements - it just seems to me that it's a solid fit, NKU's original D-I study suggested that the Horizon would be their preferred conference choice, and the way LeCrone has run the league, it seems like who he would try to get. It's a bit of a running joke I use - I always refer to NKU as a future member. And I guess I think they are as likely as anyone else. Actually, I've warmed up a good bit to NKU. They are a growing athletic program, showing they're serious with the relatively new arena around the same capacity of Calihan Hall. Being in the Cincinnati market opens up a large potential fan base with possible non-conference local Ohio River rivals in Xavier and the UC Bearcats (Yeah, I know, that'll happen when moose fly.) Northern Kentucky is a very doable trip from Detroit, including a possible 2 game set including Wright State. It's also a very doable road trip for the Commissioner...and that can't be bad.
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Post by Commissioner on Dec 2, 2014 7:42:30 GMT -5
It looks like Alabama-Birmingham will shut down its football program. All other schools in Conference USA play football, and the league had been moving to add football members and strengthen its presence in that sport. www.sunherald.com/2014/11/30/5944033/end-is-near-for-uab-football-what.html. Could that open a possibility for UAB to leave CUSA and join the Horizon? Birmingham is a three hour drive down the interstate from Nashville, home of Horizon affiliate member Belmont. It is generally well beyond the Horizon's current footprint but as part of a southern expansion strategy could make sense. UAB fits nicely as an institution with the state schools that dominate the Horizon. Other possible suitors would seem to include the MVC, the Big East, the Atlantic 10, the Sunbelt, and the American Conference. The Ohio Valley, which plays I-AA football and has two non-football members (Belmont and Morehead State, which plays in the non-scholarship Pioneer League), would be a logical geographic fit but probably too far down the basketball pecking order for UAB. The Horizon also trails the MVC, Big East, A10 and American in basketball cred, but is clearly above the OVC or Sunbelt, let alone other southern conferences such as the Southland. If Belmont joined, or Belmont and Evansville, the Horizon would be a bit tighter geographic fit for UAB than the Big East, A10 or American. The Sunbelt, of which UAB was long ago a member, is a D-I football conference. Although it does have two non-football members (Texas Arlington and Arkansas-Little Rock), it has been trying to build up football. It is, I think generally perceived as behind the Horizon in the basketball pecking order. Plus, Louisiana-Lafayette, probable the Sunbelt's best remaining basketball program, would be a likely candidate to replace UAB in CUSA. Like the OVC, the Sunbelt would be a tight geographic fit. The OVC and Sunbelt are obvious options but if UAB is thinking basketball first and/or doesn't want a football conference, the Horizon is a better bet than the Sunbelt or OVC. The American is a far-flung conference, a geographical monstrosity of convenience. And the American is also a football conference. That conference's top basketball programs, Connecticut and Cincinnati, were known a year ago to be looking for new homes. So there are reasons that the Horizon could be more attractive than an iffy move to the American Conference. The Big East also has a much greater sprawl, but it would certainly be worth it for UAB to get Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier, Butler, etc. on the schedule. But whether the Big East would want to expand is in doubt. If it did expand, would it expand beyond two teams (bringing it to 12), and if not, would it find UAB preferable to Dayton, St. Louis, VCU or others? Remember that the Big East seemed to write out VCU as a possible member because it didn't want state schools. The A10 has been expanding southward with the additions of George Mason and Davidson, but seems to want to stick close the Atlantic Coast in its expansion. The Conference already has 14 teams, though it could go to two 8 team divisions, one supposes, and may want to expand to protect itself from further poaching. But it's most likely "poachees" are probably Dayton and St. Louis to the Big East, and it doesn't appear that the A10 would then want to add another, even more isolated outpost in the middle of the country if those two Catholic schools left. That leaves the MVC, which is as good or perhaps slightly better geographic fit for UAB, and, with 10 teams, could add a team or two. UAB is a good institutional fit with the MVC state schools such as SIU, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita, etc. That would probably be the most attractive option for UAB. But if Wichita State were to figure out a way to leave (I'm not sure it can), the league would look less appealing fast. There have also been rumors of some of the football schools leaving to step up to D-I BCS Division. I'd say UAB joining the Horizon is a bit of a longshot at both ends (i.e,, whether existing schools would want to offer, and whether UAB would want to accept), but it is one worth exploring if there is any imagination left in the league's front office.
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Post by motorcitysam on Dec 2, 2014 9:30:36 GMT -5
That's an interesting idea. UAB has some basketball cred, with four NCAA trips in the last decade and 14 trips since 1981. They had a good stretch for 2003 to 2012 under the "Coach Mikes" (Anderson and Davis) with multiple NCAA Tourney and NIT seasons.
They are the type of opponent I would like to see on our schedule. Not my first choice for a conference partner, with it being outside of the conference footprint, but based on pedigree and RPI, they would add some things that others wouldn't.
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Post by Commissioner on Dec 2, 2014 19:34:13 GMT -5
One thing I didn't discuss above is why the Horizon would consider UAB. The obvious answer, as Sam says, is the basketball cred. Beyond that, I think institutionally they fit pretty well with the Horizon's state schools, and they have baseball, a key feature. Downside, obviously, is travel. It would have to be part of a move south - perhaps it could convince Belmont to jump, and maybe suck in Evansville or another school south of the Conference's current footprint. UAB would have the chance to be the Conference's next Butler.
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Post by kevinudm on Dec 2, 2014 22:26:53 GMT -5
Conference USA has no shortage of potential replacements for UAB - James Madison, Liberty, any current member of the Sun Belt Conference, etc. But none would add much to the league and C-USA would lose a long time member, and one of their few members with any basketball rep.
Seems like it would make sense for C-USA to keep UAB and offer a football-only membership to Army or U-Mass. Army was a C-USA affiliate member from 1998-2005 and left because it was not-competitive. But they might find it a bitter fit now with competition like Charlotte, ODU, FAU and FIU, than back in the day when the conference included Houston, SMU, TCU, etc. Army may not have much of a football program nowadays, but they still have a fan base.
If Army declined a chance to return to C-USA, U-Mass would jump at an offer. They desperately need a football home after being bounced from the MAC and the only other plausible home for them - the AAC - doesn't seem interested.
My sense is that UAB has some allies within C-USA, and they may not be looking for a new conference in the near term.
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 2, 2015 12:42:15 GMT -5
Here's an unsettling article by a guy who seems to know what he's talking about, though it's all speculation: frankthetank.me/2015/03/25/uptown-dunk-basketball-conference-realignment-and-the-big-east-wichita-state-uab-mvc-and-down-the-line/. If the MVC adds UAB, the league would be unlikely to stay at just 11 members. This means that it will have to find a 12th school somewhere, which could then cause a chain reaction throughout many of the non-FBS conferences below them. When the MVC was exploring expansion a couple of years ago and ultimately decided upon inviting Loyola, the league had explored UIC and Valparaiso of the Horizon League heavily. This makes sense from a university president perspective – all 3 of Loyola, UIC and Valpo are located in the Chicago market, which is where a disproportionate number of MVC students and alums live. ...
This prospect of MVC expansion might be why the Horizon League commissioner has already said that it’s in the “active phase” of expansion and the league would likely expand in the near future. The Horizon League has already been interested in schools like Northern Kentucky (currently in the Atlantic Sun) and Belmont (an Ohio Valley Conference member) and the conference may need to also backfill in the event that it gets raided by the MVC (which could put Summit League schools such as Nebraska-Omaha into play).
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Post by kevinudm on Apr 10, 2015 14:30:42 GMT -5
Apparently Conference USA will make a decision on UAB during a meeting scheduled for June 8: hamptonroads.com/2015/04/conference-usas-executive-committee-will-make-decision-uab-june-meeting-dallas
There is a movement at UAB to reinstate football, but unless they are successful within 60 days it seems likely that CUSA will give UAB the boot. They would remain in the league for one final season. ("Several conference officials, who asked not to be identified, said there appears to be a consensus that unless UAB does the unthinkable and announces it will revive football, the Blazers will be forced to leave C-USA. ")
The article mentions that the A-10 has no interest in UAB but the Sun Belt, Big South, Atlantic Sun and Southland are all possibilities. Just not very appealing possibilities.
It still seems that the MVC would be UAB's first choice for a new home, and the Sun Belt their second. Neither is a foregone conclusion (the MVC has never been proactive about adding schools, and the Sun Belt is focused on adding schools with football). If neither the MVC or the Sun Belt are possibilities, I'll bet that the Summit makes a pitch for them.
If UAB ends up in the MVC, Belmont would appear to be the most likely choice for a twelfth school. Good basketball program, good market, bridges the geographic gap between UAB and the MVC, maintains the public/private balance of the conference.
This could mean the dominos fall this way: UAB to MVC; Belmont to MVC; Lipscomb replaces Belmont in OVC; Atlantic Sun brings up another D2. And with Belmont no longer available, the Horizon probably adds NKU.
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Post by motorcitysam on Apr 13, 2015 15:43:34 GMT -5
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