Post by Commissioner on Feb 22, 2015 20:32:32 GMT -5
Cleveland's loss today to Milwaukee dramatically alters the possibilities for the Horizon year-end standings and seedings. What had looked pretty straightforward with a CSU win--Valpo plays at CSU for first and second; Oakland plays at Green Bay for 3rd and 4th--now offers up a boatload of possibilities.
Remember, the basic HL tiebreaker is simple. First, it's head to head. If the teams split, then look at which team has the best victory in league play- in other words compare the two against the 3rd place team, then the 4th place team, and so on down until one team has more wins than the other.
1. Valparaiso clinches the league title by winning at Detroit next Wednesday or at Cleveland State next Friday. That's the easy one.
2. If Valpo loses to both Detroit and CSU, and Oakland loses against Youngstown or at Green Bay, Valpo and Cleveland State would tie. CSU would own the tie breaker by virtue of having beaten Green Bay twice.
3. If Valpo loses out, and Oakland wins out, Valpo, CSU, and Oakland will be tied for first at 12-4. The teams split their meetings with each other, so we go to the second tiebreaker. Here, CSU and Oakland will both have defeated 4th place Green Bay twice, but Valpo beat them just once. Now it is down to CSU and Oakland. Each split with 5th place Milwaukee. Each split with 6th place Detroit. Each swept 7th, 8th, and 9th place UIC, Wright State, and YSU. So the resort to the final tiebreaker-- the team with the highest RPI is declared the regular season champ and hosts the tournament. As of this writing, CSU has an RPI of 126, and Oakland an RPI of 135. The RPI Wizard predicts that in this scenario, CSU would finish at 106, and Oakland at 112. That's close enough that they could swap depending on what their various non-conference opponents do in the next week. The loser of that duel would then be the second seed, since both CSU and Oakland will hold the tie breaker over Valpo by virtue of their wins over Green Bay.
4. If Valpo loses out and Green Bay wins out, Valpo, Green Bay, and CSU will be tied for the title. CSU would then be the league champ by virtue of a 3-1 record in head to head match ups between the three. Valpo would take second place, since it beat CSU once while Green Bay lost to CSU twice. Green Bay would be third and Oakland 4th.
5. A two way tie between Valpo and CSU would result if Valpo loses out and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay loses its other remaining game (Green Bay @ UIC; YSU @ Oakland). CSU would again hold the tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping Green Bay. Valpo would be the #2 seed. Oakland would be the #3 seed unless it loses to both Green Bay and UIC, in which case Green Bay would be the #3 seed and Oakland #4.
Phew.
Now assume scenario 1 above - Valpo wins the outright title. What about 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?
6. If Cleveland State and Green Bay both win out, each will finish 12-4. CSU will be the #2 seed and get the double bye by virtue of sweeping Green Bay during the season. Green Bay will be #3 and Oakland #4.
7. If Cleveland State and Oakland both win out, each will finish 12-4. Each will have a split with Valpo and a sweep of Green Bay, then same as scenario 3 above - the higher RPI will be seeded #2, the other #3, Green Bay #4.
8. If CSU beats Valpo and both Green Bay and Oakland lose one game, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
a. If either Green Bay or Oakland loses out, the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay will be #3, the loser #4.
9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game. If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.
10. If CSU loses to Valpo and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay drops it other game, and the loser wins its other game, the three teams will be 11-5. If Oakland won the Green Bay game, Oakland will be the #2 seed, CSU #3, Green Bay #4. If Green Bay beat Oakland, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
Are you with me? Here is the easy part:
11. Detroit is the 5th seed. Period.
The bottom 3 are confusing. Wright State plays @ UIC and hosts Milwaukee; UIC hosts Wright State and plays @ Green Bay; YSU plays @ Oakland, and hosts Milwaukee.
12. If UIC or WSU wins out, it will be the #6 seed.
13. In the event of a three way tie between YSU, WSU, and UIC (this requires YSU winning out, and the winner of UIC/WSU losing its other game):
a. If UIC beats Wright State, UIC will be the #6 seed, YSU #7, and Wright State #8
b. If WSU beats UIC, YSU will be #6, UIC #7, and WSU #8
14. Two way tie breakers:
a. UIC and WSU tie: UIC is #6, WSU #7, YSU #8.
b. UIC and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. UIC beats Green Bay: Wright State is #6, UIC #7, YSU #8
ii. UIC beats Wright State: YSU is #6, UIC #7, Wright State #8.
c. WSU and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. WSU beats MIlwaukee: UIC is #6, YSU #7, Wright State #8.
ii. WSU beats UIC: YSU is #6, WSU #7, UIC #8.
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8, unless YSU loses to Oakland, but only if Detroit finishes with a higher RPI than Milwaukee.
Got it? Good.
Remember, the basic HL tiebreaker is simple. First, it's head to head. If the teams split, then look at which team has the best victory in league play- in other words compare the two against the 3rd place team, then the 4th place team, and so on down until one team has more wins than the other.
1. Valparaiso clinches the league title by winning at Detroit next Wednesday or at Cleveland State next Friday. That's the easy one.
2. If Valpo loses to both Detroit and CSU, and Oakland loses against Youngstown or at Green Bay, Valpo and Cleveland State would tie. CSU would own the tie breaker by virtue of having beaten Green Bay twice.
3. If Valpo loses out, and Oakland wins out, Valpo, CSU, and Oakland will be tied for first at 12-4. The teams split their meetings with each other, so we go to the second tiebreaker. Here, CSU and Oakland will both have defeated 4th place Green Bay twice, but Valpo beat them just once. Now it is down to CSU and Oakland. Each split with 5th place Milwaukee. Each split with 6th place Detroit. Each swept 7th, 8th, and 9th place UIC, Wright State, and YSU. So the resort to the final tiebreaker-- the team with the highest RPI is declared the regular season champ and hosts the tournament. As of this writing, CSU has an RPI of 126, and Oakland an RPI of 135. The RPI Wizard predicts that in this scenario, CSU would finish at 106, and Oakland at 112. That's close enough that they could swap depending on what their various non-conference opponents do in the next week. The loser of that duel would then be the second seed, since both CSU and Oakland will hold the tie breaker over Valpo by virtue of their wins over Green Bay.
4. If Valpo loses out and Green Bay wins out, Valpo, Green Bay, and CSU will be tied for the title. CSU would then be the league champ by virtue of a 3-1 record in head to head match ups between the three. Valpo would take second place, since it beat CSU once while Green Bay lost to CSU twice. Green Bay would be third and Oakland 4th.
5. A two way tie between Valpo and CSU would result if Valpo loses out and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay loses its other remaining game (Green Bay @ UIC; YSU @ Oakland). CSU would again hold the tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping Green Bay. Valpo would be the #2 seed. Oakland would be the #3 seed unless it loses to both Green Bay and UIC, in which case Green Bay would be the #3 seed and Oakland #4.
Phew.
Now assume scenario 1 above - Valpo wins the outright title. What about 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?
6. If Cleveland State and Green Bay both win out, each will finish 12-4. CSU will be the #2 seed and get the double bye by virtue of sweeping Green Bay during the season. Green Bay will be #3 and Oakland #4.
7. If Cleveland State and Oakland both win out, each will finish 12-4. Each will have a split with Valpo and a sweep of Green Bay, then same as scenario 3 above - the higher RPI will be seeded #2, the other #3, Green Bay #4.
8. If CSU beats Valpo and both Green Bay and Oakland lose one game, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
a. If either Green Bay or Oakland loses out, the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay will be #3, the loser #4.
9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game. If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.
10. If CSU loses to Valpo and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay drops it other game, and the loser wins its other game, the three teams will be 11-5. If Oakland won the Green Bay game, Oakland will be the #2 seed, CSU #3, Green Bay #4. If Green Bay beat Oakland, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
Are you with me? Here is the easy part:
11. Detroit is the 5th seed. Period.
The bottom 3 are confusing. Wright State plays @ UIC and hosts Milwaukee; UIC hosts Wright State and plays @ Green Bay; YSU plays @ Oakland, and hosts Milwaukee.
12. If UIC or WSU wins out, it will be the #6 seed.
13. In the event of a three way tie between YSU, WSU, and UIC (this requires YSU winning out, and the winner of UIC/WSU losing its other game):
a. If UIC beats Wright State, UIC will be the #6 seed, YSU #7, and Wright State #8
b. If WSU beats UIC, YSU will be #6, UIC #7, and WSU #8
14. Two way tie breakers:
a. UIC and WSU tie: UIC is #6, WSU #7, YSU #8.
b. UIC and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. UIC beats Green Bay: Wright State is #6, UIC #7, YSU #8
ii. UIC beats Wright State: YSU is #6, UIC #7, Wright State #8.
c. WSU and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. WSU beats MIlwaukee: UIC is #6, YSU #7, Wright State #8.
ii. WSU beats UIC: YSU is #6, WSU #7, UIC #8.
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8, unless YSU loses to Oakland, but only if Detroit finishes with a higher RPI than Milwaukee.
Got it? Good.