Post by Commissioner on Jan 1, 2016 17:22:29 GMT -5
Horizon League Non-Conference Wrap Up and Preview:
Except for a stray game that Green Bay plays at Chicago State on January 19, Horizon teams are now done with non-conference play. All 10 teams open conference play on Saturday in what, as usual, should be an entertaining and unpredictable race for the regular season title and seeding in the all-important conference tournament.
The Horizon League’s “official” preseason poll of coaches, SIDs, and media predicted the following finish:
1. Valparaiso
2. Oakland
3. Milwaukee
4. Detroit
5. Wright State
6. Green Bay
7. Cleveland State
8. UIC
9. Youngstown State
10. Northern Kentucky
That was also the order of a consensus of 16 various preseasons rankings by publications, computer whizzes, and seemingly reasonable bloggers. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/4849/thread.
The Horizon this year has the biggest gulf between the top and the bottom that I can remember, and the teams segregate themselves into three relatively clear tiers. In the top tier are Valpo, Oakland, and Milwaukee. In the second tier you’ve got Green Bay, Detroit, Wright State and Cleveland State. The bottom consists of Youngstown, UIC, and Northern Kentucky.
The Top Tier. In my preseason previews I wrote “For reasons that are nearly inexplicable to me, Valpo was not a unanimous choice to win the Horizon in the Conference pre-season poll. But they were a heavy favorite.”
For the rest of the league, I noted in my Oakland preview, “Oakland is the trendy pick to finish second in the Horizon this year, and why not? I mean, somebody’s got to finish second. It can’t be Valparaiso, because they’re going to finish first. It can’t be Detroit, because since Valpo is finishing first, the highest you can pick Detroit is second, but Detroit always underperforms predictions, so the highest the Titans can actually finish is third. Green Bay and Cleveland State lost too much. Wright State has too far to climb, Northern Kentucky is too new, UIC too young, Youngstown State too Youngstown Statey. That leaves Oakland or Milwaukee. I’ll pick Oakland.” Specifically, I said in my Milwaukee preview “I won’t argue if you want to pick them third,” even as I confessed that “I don’t see the title contender Milwaukee fans seem to think they have.”
I’ve seen little that makes me alter those thoughts, although there some nuances.
I still think Valpo is the favorite to win the league championship. Even with the slip ups at Ball State (which has played better than expected) and Belmont, the Crusaders have compiled the league’s best non-conference resume. Their 10-3 record is the conference’s best. More importantly, they took two out of three of their big road games, against Oregon, Oregon State, and Rhode Island. The loss was to Oregon by 6 points in a game they were in until the end. Unfortunately, the loss at Belmont probably doomed their at-large hopes. They have no remaining margin for error.
How valuable Valpo's wins will be come NCAA seeding or at-large time we’ll have to see. Rhode Island lost its best player, EC Mathews, in the first game of the season and, not surprisingly, has struggled a bit in non-con play (7-5). They need to emerge as the A10 contender that was predicted for that win to help Valpo much. Oregon State was projected as a middle of the pack PAC 12 team. They’ve played well so far, with an 8-2 record (losing at Kansas State in addition to Valpo), but they’ve only got one win over a top 100 RPI team (Tulsa). Their next 14 games are against teams that currently have top 100 RPIs, so we’ll see what that win is worth to Valpo soon enough. Even losing to Oregon, at least when combined with the wins, is probably a small plus for Valpo—they showed they can play with the big boys on the road, and that matters to the NCAA selection committee, which above all wants at-large selections to produce exciting tournament games. But the loss at Belmont this week really hurts. If Valpo goes 16-2 in conference, losing at Oakland and Milwaukee, and then loses to OU in an Horizon League Championship game, they would finish 27-6 with an RPI probably in the mid-30s, probably with no top 50 wins (though Oregon State could squeeze into the top 50) and top 100 wins probably over Oregon State, Rhode Island, Oakland and Belmont. The only really bad loss would be at Ball State. That might get an at-large; probably not. So you can see they’ve got no room to slip up again.
Valpo has yet to play at full strength. Lexus Williams has recovered slowly from his ACL tear of a year ago, and has played fewer than 100 minutes. It may well be that he won’t contribute much this year, but he still could. David Skara and Tevonn Walker have each missed a few games with nagging injuries. Darien Walker played through an ankle sprain for a couple games. And now Victor Nickerson is out with a hand injury and it’s not sure when he’ll be back.
Nonetheless, Valpo remains the deepest, most experienced team in the league, and the one that accomplished the most in the non-conference season. They are well-coached and always come well-prepared. I still consider them the favorite for the regular season title.
That said, Oakland appears better than I thought they would be. Basically, OU has performed at or near the top of what I thought it could. When I look at teams in the preseason, I try to figure out how many question marks there are—how many guys are being expected to improve substantially, how many guys are “promising” but have yet to actually do much; who is expected back from injury, etc. The odds are that not all question marks will yield positive answers, but some will. For Oakland, however, almost all the question marks have come in positive. All three of their transfers—Percy Gibson, Sherron Dorsey-Walker, and, since his eligibility in mid-December, Mellonhead Walker—have hit the upper range of expectations, and Kahlil Felder has been magnificent. Max Hooper has played quite a bit better than last year and Jalen Hayes is turning into a consistent beast. The loss of Tommie McCune before the season started was about the only wrong answer Oakland’s gotten, but that was probably the least important of their question marks, and is rendered meaningless by how many positive answers they’ve gotten.
Oakland’s play, including the narrow loss to Michigan State at the Palace, have convinced me that OU is more of a threat to Valpo than I thought in October. Having said that, however, Oakland hasn’t done as much as some seem to think. They’ve got a couple nice road wins at Toledo and Washington, winning each convincingly. But those aren’t exceptional victories (Washington, for example, lost at home this week to 4-7 UC-Santa Barbara and unless they surprise in PAC 12 play, is unlikely to crack the top 100 in RPI). Oakland’s other six wins are against teams with a combined 6-46 record againt D-I competition. They’ve lost at Colorado State (7-5, KenPom #162) which has been disappointing this year, and at Southern Illinois (11-2, KenPom Ranking #112), which has far exceeded expectations. Neither loss, on the road, is embarrassing, but nor does losing those games scream out “Horizon Champs.” The close losses to Georgia (on the road), Michigan State (neutral) merit respect, but they are losses, as is the game at Virginia. So I liked OU in October, I like them more now, but I still don’t think they merit being picked over Valpo.
Then there’s Milwaukee. The Panthers have a nice 9-4 record, including road wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota. Working against the Panthers’ are losses to a subpar Murray State team on a neutral floor, a home loss to South Dakota, and a road loss to an awful Santa Clara team. It’s fair to note that Wisconsin is also not its usual self, and Minnesota looks likely to finish near the bottom of the Big 10. I don’t mean to take anything away from Milwaukee—those are very nice wins that I wish we had; it is always tough to beat a Big 10 team on the road; there’s a very good chance that MSU, Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan or Iowa loses at one or both locations. I’m just trying to keep Milwaukee’s wins in perspective—I’m not sure that either Wisconsin or Minnesota is more than an NIT team, and Minnesota, which is 6-7 with a #157 KenPom ranking, probably won’t be even that. So again, while I’m higher on Milwaukee than I was two months ago, I still see the Panthers more as pretenders than champs.
A key to Milwaukee’s success has been the play of point guard Jordan Johnson, a juco transfer who is second in the nation—to Felder—in assists (it’s pretty cool that the Horizon has the top 2 in the nation in a major stat category). Pretty much everything has gone right for Milwaukee. They lost back-up guard Justin Jordan, who quit the team, but picked up Murray State transfer JayQuan McCloud this month, and he’s played well in 4 games. The Panthers are capable of some big wins, but I don’t see them having the consistency to beat out Valpo for the regular season title, nor do I see them with the same talent level as Oakland.
The Middle
The middle of the Horizon consists of Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland State and Wright State. Detroit and Green Bay are dark horses to bust up the top three in the final standings, and all 4 of these clubs will be competitive.
Green Bay at this point may be the better bet than Detroit, if only because the Phoenix have won three road games, even if all three were against Ohio Valley teams. They’ve also got an embarrassing loss at East Tennessee State. Their best wins are at home against Akron and on the road at Morehead State. Carrington Love has emerged as a big time scorer, and Jordan Fouse remains the definition of “glue guy.”
Detroit has looked good at home (6-0) and bad on the road (0-5). The schedule favors a fast start by Detroit—if the Titans have more than 2 losses by mid-January, they’re through.
At the start of the year I saw Wright State as a team that could make the biggest comeback in the conference, mainly because last year was so ruined by injuries. They just weren’t that bad. With JT Yoho and Steve Davis back from injuries, and some solid transfers coming in for depth in Biggie Minnis and Mark Alstork, a turnaround seemed very possible. But WSU has been hit again by injuries, losing Davis and back up guard Brandon Neel for the season. Guards Minnis and Justin Mitchell have missed several games. By mid-December I was ready to write Wright right out of the race, after a neutral court loss to a dreadful Cal-State Northridge team and road losses to mediocre squads from George Mason and Miami. But Wright proceeded to win their next three against Charleston Southern, Bowling Green, and Murray State. Granted, all three were at home, and Charleston Southern isn’t any good, but BGSU and Murray State are sound enough. Wright crushed both, beating the Falcons by 36 points and the Racers by 16. So I can’t relegate the Raiders to the bottom tier yet.
Cleveland State is just 5-8 overall, 3-8 in D-I play, but they’ve played a tough schedule, #35 nationally so far. Wins over Belmont and at Loyola suggest that they, too, could be dangerous in Horizon play. What should be worrisome for CSU are home losses to Bowling Green, Ohio, and Kent State. You have to win those games at home. They can certainly beat Detroit.
The Dregs At the bottom of the conference we find Northern Kentucky, Youngstown, and UIC. UIC has some talented freshmen but they are winless against D-I competition. NKU’s only D-I wins are over Norfolk State and 1-10 SE Missouri State. Looks like a long first year. Youngstown State had a 4 game winning streak a while back, but enters conference play having lost 4 of 5 en route to a 5-8 record.
Where Sits the Horizon Of course, we all want to be in a better conference, or at least most of us do. Some even think we are entitled to it, because, hey, Dave DeBusschere played here, and that’s just 50 some years ago. But for now we’re stuck in the Horizon, so we need the HL to be the best it can be.
Unfortunately, this year that’s not too good. Currently the Horizon ranks 15th in RPI, an improvement from last year’s final 17th, which in turn was the worst for the Horizon in a long time. Unfortunately, this year’s RPI is likely to sink further as conference play begins. That’s because, although it’s gotten better in the last two weeks, the Horizon still has an awful non conference record of 42-56 against D-I competition (Horizon teams are 18-0 against non-DI opponents, which doesn’t factor into RPI). The Conference RPI has been floated by the fact that the Conference SOS so far is 4th best in the nation, and SOS is the biggest single factor in RPI. But the low winning percentage drags it way down. And once conference play begins, all those non-conference losses will keep recycling through each HL team’s RPI, and be a major component of their opponents’ opponents record, the 3rd factor in RPI. As it stands now, RPI Forecast sees the Horizon finishing 18th in RPI.
Oddly, the conference’s weakness may improve the odds of getting a second team to the NCAA this year, which the conference badly needs both for prestige and because the money from Butler’s two final four runs is about to disappear. With the bottom of the conference so weak, it should be possible for the top teams to run up glittering W-L records. That means higher RPIs for the top, and better looking wins when they play each other. Valpo benefits more if it beats a team with a 200 RPI and another with an 80 RPI than if it beats two teams with RPIs of 135 and 145, simply because that win over the 80 shows up as a quality win.
That said, it’s hard to see an at-large coming. OU fans like to dream about it, but according to RPI Forecast, if Oakland were to go 17-1 in conference, losing only at Valpo, and were then to lose again in the tournament final to Valpo, it would have an RPI of about 50. With just 1 top 50 win—and that’s a maybe, presuming Valpo stays top 50—and likely no other top 100 wins, OU would have almost no chance of an at-large bid. And that, of course, is a pretty optimistic projection. Doing the same for Milwaukee yields an RPI of about 65. They’d have top 100 wins over Valpo and possibly Oakland and Wisconsin. That won’t do it, either. So, Horizon fans hoping for a second bid need to root for Valpo to run the table, or close to it, and then lose to their team in the conference tournament final. At least Valpo, would have a shot.
Here are what I consider the 10 best non-conference wins for the Horizon this year, considering opponent, home/away, and the final score and dominance:
1. Valparaiso 63-57 @ Oregon State
2. Milwaukee 68-67 @ Wisconsin
3. Valparaiso 58-55 @ Rhode Island
4. Oakland 97-83 @ Washington
5. Milwaukee 74-65 @ Minnesota
6. Oakland 76-64 @ Toledo
7. Green Bay 66-63 vs. Akron
8. Detroit 76-73 v. Northeastern
9. Green Bay 78-72 @ Morehead State
10. Valparaiso 69-63 @ Indiana State
Not a very impressive lot.
Meanwhile, here is another bad stat: Average attendance in non-conference home games this year is 2361: a decline of just over 5 percent from last year’s 2490. And that’s with a decline from 58 to just 50 home games, despite adding a 10th team. Take out Northern Kentucky, and the 9 holdover schools still have a cumulative decline of over 3 percent.
Finally, here is how the Horizon did against various other conferences this year:
Non-DI: 18-0
MAAC: 3-0
Northeast: 2-0
WAC: 2-0
Colonial: 1-0
Southland: 1-0
Big Sky: 1-0
America East: 1-0
Big South 1-0
SWAC: 1-0
WCC: 2-1
Ohio Valley: 7-4
Summit: 3-3
Pac 12: 2-2
American: 1-1
Atlantic Sun: 1-1
MEAC: 1-1
Missouri Valley: 3-4
MAC: 7-15
Big 10: 2-7
Atlantic 10: 1-3
Big 12: 0-1
Mountain West: 0-1
CUSA: 0-1
Big West: 0-1
Sunbelt: 0-1
Southern: 0-1
Patriot: 0-1
SEC: 0-3
Big East: 0-3
ACC: 0-5
Fresh season starts Saturday!
Except for a stray game that Green Bay plays at Chicago State on January 19, Horizon teams are now done with non-conference play. All 10 teams open conference play on Saturday in what, as usual, should be an entertaining and unpredictable race for the regular season title and seeding in the all-important conference tournament.
The Horizon League’s “official” preseason poll of coaches, SIDs, and media predicted the following finish:
1. Valparaiso
2. Oakland
3. Milwaukee
4. Detroit
5. Wright State
6. Green Bay
7. Cleveland State
8. UIC
9. Youngstown State
10. Northern Kentucky
That was also the order of a consensus of 16 various preseasons rankings by publications, computer whizzes, and seemingly reasonable bloggers. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/4849/thread.
The Horizon this year has the biggest gulf between the top and the bottom that I can remember, and the teams segregate themselves into three relatively clear tiers. In the top tier are Valpo, Oakland, and Milwaukee. In the second tier you’ve got Green Bay, Detroit, Wright State and Cleveland State. The bottom consists of Youngstown, UIC, and Northern Kentucky.
The Top Tier. In my preseason previews I wrote “For reasons that are nearly inexplicable to me, Valpo was not a unanimous choice to win the Horizon in the Conference pre-season poll. But they were a heavy favorite.”
For the rest of the league, I noted in my Oakland preview, “Oakland is the trendy pick to finish second in the Horizon this year, and why not? I mean, somebody’s got to finish second. It can’t be Valparaiso, because they’re going to finish first. It can’t be Detroit, because since Valpo is finishing first, the highest you can pick Detroit is second, but Detroit always underperforms predictions, so the highest the Titans can actually finish is third. Green Bay and Cleveland State lost too much. Wright State has too far to climb, Northern Kentucky is too new, UIC too young, Youngstown State too Youngstown Statey. That leaves Oakland or Milwaukee. I’ll pick Oakland.” Specifically, I said in my Milwaukee preview “I won’t argue if you want to pick them third,” even as I confessed that “I don’t see the title contender Milwaukee fans seem to think they have.”
I’ve seen little that makes me alter those thoughts, although there some nuances.
I still think Valpo is the favorite to win the league championship. Even with the slip ups at Ball State (which has played better than expected) and Belmont, the Crusaders have compiled the league’s best non-conference resume. Their 10-3 record is the conference’s best. More importantly, they took two out of three of their big road games, against Oregon, Oregon State, and Rhode Island. The loss was to Oregon by 6 points in a game they were in until the end. Unfortunately, the loss at Belmont probably doomed their at-large hopes. They have no remaining margin for error.
How valuable Valpo's wins will be come NCAA seeding or at-large time we’ll have to see. Rhode Island lost its best player, EC Mathews, in the first game of the season and, not surprisingly, has struggled a bit in non-con play (7-5). They need to emerge as the A10 contender that was predicted for that win to help Valpo much. Oregon State was projected as a middle of the pack PAC 12 team. They’ve played well so far, with an 8-2 record (losing at Kansas State in addition to Valpo), but they’ve only got one win over a top 100 RPI team (Tulsa). Their next 14 games are against teams that currently have top 100 RPIs, so we’ll see what that win is worth to Valpo soon enough. Even losing to Oregon, at least when combined with the wins, is probably a small plus for Valpo—they showed they can play with the big boys on the road, and that matters to the NCAA selection committee, which above all wants at-large selections to produce exciting tournament games. But the loss at Belmont this week really hurts. If Valpo goes 16-2 in conference, losing at Oakland and Milwaukee, and then loses to OU in an Horizon League Championship game, they would finish 27-6 with an RPI probably in the mid-30s, probably with no top 50 wins (though Oregon State could squeeze into the top 50) and top 100 wins probably over Oregon State, Rhode Island, Oakland and Belmont. The only really bad loss would be at Ball State. That might get an at-large; probably not. So you can see they’ve got no room to slip up again.
Valpo has yet to play at full strength. Lexus Williams has recovered slowly from his ACL tear of a year ago, and has played fewer than 100 minutes. It may well be that he won’t contribute much this year, but he still could. David Skara and Tevonn Walker have each missed a few games with nagging injuries. Darien Walker played through an ankle sprain for a couple games. And now Victor Nickerson is out with a hand injury and it’s not sure when he’ll be back.
Nonetheless, Valpo remains the deepest, most experienced team in the league, and the one that accomplished the most in the non-conference season. They are well-coached and always come well-prepared. I still consider them the favorite for the regular season title.
That said, Oakland appears better than I thought they would be. Basically, OU has performed at or near the top of what I thought it could. When I look at teams in the preseason, I try to figure out how many question marks there are—how many guys are being expected to improve substantially, how many guys are “promising” but have yet to actually do much; who is expected back from injury, etc. The odds are that not all question marks will yield positive answers, but some will. For Oakland, however, almost all the question marks have come in positive. All three of their transfers—Percy Gibson, Sherron Dorsey-Walker, and, since his eligibility in mid-December, Mellonhead Walker—have hit the upper range of expectations, and Kahlil Felder has been magnificent. Max Hooper has played quite a bit better than last year and Jalen Hayes is turning into a consistent beast. The loss of Tommie McCune before the season started was about the only wrong answer Oakland’s gotten, but that was probably the least important of their question marks, and is rendered meaningless by how many positive answers they’ve gotten.
Oakland’s play, including the narrow loss to Michigan State at the Palace, have convinced me that OU is more of a threat to Valpo than I thought in October. Having said that, however, Oakland hasn’t done as much as some seem to think. They’ve got a couple nice road wins at Toledo and Washington, winning each convincingly. But those aren’t exceptional victories (Washington, for example, lost at home this week to 4-7 UC-Santa Barbara and unless they surprise in PAC 12 play, is unlikely to crack the top 100 in RPI). Oakland’s other six wins are against teams with a combined 6-46 record againt D-I competition. They’ve lost at Colorado State (7-5, KenPom #162) which has been disappointing this year, and at Southern Illinois (11-2, KenPom Ranking #112), which has far exceeded expectations. Neither loss, on the road, is embarrassing, but nor does losing those games scream out “Horizon Champs.” The close losses to Georgia (on the road), Michigan State (neutral) merit respect, but they are losses, as is the game at Virginia. So I liked OU in October, I like them more now, but I still don’t think they merit being picked over Valpo.
Then there’s Milwaukee. The Panthers have a nice 9-4 record, including road wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota. Working against the Panthers’ are losses to a subpar Murray State team on a neutral floor, a home loss to South Dakota, and a road loss to an awful Santa Clara team. It’s fair to note that Wisconsin is also not its usual self, and Minnesota looks likely to finish near the bottom of the Big 10. I don’t mean to take anything away from Milwaukee—those are very nice wins that I wish we had; it is always tough to beat a Big 10 team on the road; there’s a very good chance that MSU, Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan or Iowa loses at one or both locations. I’m just trying to keep Milwaukee’s wins in perspective—I’m not sure that either Wisconsin or Minnesota is more than an NIT team, and Minnesota, which is 6-7 with a #157 KenPom ranking, probably won’t be even that. So again, while I’m higher on Milwaukee than I was two months ago, I still see the Panthers more as pretenders than champs.
A key to Milwaukee’s success has been the play of point guard Jordan Johnson, a juco transfer who is second in the nation—to Felder—in assists (it’s pretty cool that the Horizon has the top 2 in the nation in a major stat category). Pretty much everything has gone right for Milwaukee. They lost back-up guard Justin Jordan, who quit the team, but picked up Murray State transfer JayQuan McCloud this month, and he’s played well in 4 games. The Panthers are capable of some big wins, but I don’t see them having the consistency to beat out Valpo for the regular season title, nor do I see them with the same talent level as Oakland.
The Middle
The middle of the Horizon consists of Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland State and Wright State. Detroit and Green Bay are dark horses to bust up the top three in the final standings, and all 4 of these clubs will be competitive.
Green Bay at this point may be the better bet than Detroit, if only because the Phoenix have won three road games, even if all three were against Ohio Valley teams. They’ve also got an embarrassing loss at East Tennessee State. Their best wins are at home against Akron and on the road at Morehead State. Carrington Love has emerged as a big time scorer, and Jordan Fouse remains the definition of “glue guy.”
Detroit has looked good at home (6-0) and bad on the road (0-5). The schedule favors a fast start by Detroit—if the Titans have more than 2 losses by mid-January, they’re through.
At the start of the year I saw Wright State as a team that could make the biggest comeback in the conference, mainly because last year was so ruined by injuries. They just weren’t that bad. With JT Yoho and Steve Davis back from injuries, and some solid transfers coming in for depth in Biggie Minnis and Mark Alstork, a turnaround seemed very possible. But WSU has been hit again by injuries, losing Davis and back up guard Brandon Neel for the season. Guards Minnis and Justin Mitchell have missed several games. By mid-December I was ready to write Wright right out of the race, after a neutral court loss to a dreadful Cal-State Northridge team and road losses to mediocre squads from George Mason and Miami. But Wright proceeded to win their next three against Charleston Southern, Bowling Green, and Murray State. Granted, all three were at home, and Charleston Southern isn’t any good, but BGSU and Murray State are sound enough. Wright crushed both, beating the Falcons by 36 points and the Racers by 16. So I can’t relegate the Raiders to the bottom tier yet.
Cleveland State is just 5-8 overall, 3-8 in D-I play, but they’ve played a tough schedule, #35 nationally so far. Wins over Belmont and at Loyola suggest that they, too, could be dangerous in Horizon play. What should be worrisome for CSU are home losses to Bowling Green, Ohio, and Kent State. You have to win those games at home. They can certainly beat Detroit.
The Dregs At the bottom of the conference we find Northern Kentucky, Youngstown, and UIC. UIC has some talented freshmen but they are winless against D-I competition. NKU’s only D-I wins are over Norfolk State and 1-10 SE Missouri State. Looks like a long first year. Youngstown State had a 4 game winning streak a while back, but enters conference play having lost 4 of 5 en route to a 5-8 record.
Where Sits the Horizon Of course, we all want to be in a better conference, or at least most of us do. Some even think we are entitled to it, because, hey, Dave DeBusschere played here, and that’s just 50 some years ago. But for now we’re stuck in the Horizon, so we need the HL to be the best it can be.
Unfortunately, this year that’s not too good. Currently the Horizon ranks 15th in RPI, an improvement from last year’s final 17th, which in turn was the worst for the Horizon in a long time. Unfortunately, this year’s RPI is likely to sink further as conference play begins. That’s because, although it’s gotten better in the last two weeks, the Horizon still has an awful non conference record of 42-56 against D-I competition (Horizon teams are 18-0 against non-DI opponents, which doesn’t factor into RPI). The Conference RPI has been floated by the fact that the Conference SOS so far is 4th best in the nation, and SOS is the biggest single factor in RPI. But the low winning percentage drags it way down. And once conference play begins, all those non-conference losses will keep recycling through each HL team’s RPI, and be a major component of their opponents’ opponents record, the 3rd factor in RPI. As it stands now, RPI Forecast sees the Horizon finishing 18th in RPI.
Oddly, the conference’s weakness may improve the odds of getting a second team to the NCAA this year, which the conference badly needs both for prestige and because the money from Butler’s two final four runs is about to disappear. With the bottom of the conference so weak, it should be possible for the top teams to run up glittering W-L records. That means higher RPIs for the top, and better looking wins when they play each other. Valpo benefits more if it beats a team with a 200 RPI and another with an 80 RPI than if it beats two teams with RPIs of 135 and 145, simply because that win over the 80 shows up as a quality win.
That said, it’s hard to see an at-large coming. OU fans like to dream about it, but according to RPI Forecast, if Oakland were to go 17-1 in conference, losing only at Valpo, and were then to lose again in the tournament final to Valpo, it would have an RPI of about 50. With just 1 top 50 win—and that’s a maybe, presuming Valpo stays top 50—and likely no other top 100 wins, OU would have almost no chance of an at-large bid. And that, of course, is a pretty optimistic projection. Doing the same for Milwaukee yields an RPI of about 65. They’d have top 100 wins over Valpo and possibly Oakland and Wisconsin. That won’t do it, either. So, Horizon fans hoping for a second bid need to root for Valpo to run the table, or close to it, and then lose to their team in the conference tournament final. At least Valpo, would have a shot.
Here are what I consider the 10 best non-conference wins for the Horizon this year, considering opponent, home/away, and the final score and dominance:
1. Valparaiso 63-57 @ Oregon State
2. Milwaukee 68-67 @ Wisconsin
3. Valparaiso 58-55 @ Rhode Island
4. Oakland 97-83 @ Washington
5. Milwaukee 74-65 @ Minnesota
6. Oakland 76-64 @ Toledo
7. Green Bay 66-63 vs. Akron
8. Detroit 76-73 v. Northeastern
9. Green Bay 78-72 @ Morehead State
10. Valparaiso 69-63 @ Indiana State
Not a very impressive lot.
Meanwhile, here is another bad stat: Average attendance in non-conference home games this year is 2361: a decline of just over 5 percent from last year’s 2490. And that’s with a decline from 58 to just 50 home games, despite adding a 10th team. Take out Northern Kentucky, and the 9 holdover schools still have a cumulative decline of over 3 percent.
Finally, here is how the Horizon did against various other conferences this year:
Non-DI: 18-0
MAAC: 3-0
Northeast: 2-0
WAC: 2-0
Colonial: 1-0
Southland: 1-0
Big Sky: 1-0
America East: 1-0
Big South 1-0
SWAC: 1-0
WCC: 2-1
Ohio Valley: 7-4
Summit: 3-3
Pac 12: 2-2
American: 1-1
Atlantic Sun: 1-1
MEAC: 1-1
Missouri Valley: 3-4
MAC: 7-15
Big 10: 2-7
Atlantic 10: 1-3
Big 12: 0-1
Mountain West: 0-1
CUSA: 0-1
Big West: 0-1
Sunbelt: 0-1
Southern: 0-1
Patriot: 0-1
SEC: 0-3
Big East: 0-3
ACC: 0-5
Fresh season starts Saturday!
