Post by Commissioner on Feb 18, 2019 22:56:15 GMT -5
With just two weeks left in the Horizon season, here is how the conference tournament and standings might shape up.
1. Northern Kentucky 10-4. Remaining Schedule: Youngstown State, Cleveland State, @ Milwaukee, @ Green Bay.
2. Wright State 10-4. Remaining Schedule: Same as Wright State.
Currently, NKU holds the tie breaker by virtue of a win over UIC. That would change if Wright State beats Green Bay while Northern loses to Green Bay (but of course that would also move WSU a game ahead of NKU), and Green Bay or Oakland finishes ahead of UIC. Youngstown is hot, Green Bay is a decent team on the road... but then, WSU has the same obstacles. And if I were a Norse fan, I'd figure CSU and YSU at home, plus Milwaukee and Green Bay on the road, is likely good for at least 3 wins. Smart money says NKU will be the #1 seed, and Wright State #2 at tournament time.
3. Green Bay 8-6. Schedule: @ UIC, @ IUPUI, Wright State, Northern Kentucky
4. UIC 8-6. Schedule: Green Bay, Milwaukee, @ Oakland, @ Detroit
5. Oakland 8-7: Schedule: Detroit, UIC, IUPUI
6. Youngstown State 8-7: Schedule @ Northern Kentucky, @ Wright State, Cleveland State.
Right now, Green Bay has the tie breaker for 3rd by virtue of a head to head win over UIC. They can really put UIC in a hole by beating the Flames in Chicago on Friday--they'll be a game up on the Flames and control the tie breaker. But the Flames, playing at home, are in the same position--if they win Thursday, they'll be a game up on the Phoenix, and control the tie-breaker by virtue of 2 wins over Wright State.
But both Green Bay and UIC also have to worry about Oakland. Oakland has only home games left, against the teams that are currently 4, 7, and 8 in the standings. If OU beats UIC, they'll hold that tiebreaker by virtue of a head-to-head sweep. If they lose, however, UIC will keep it, by virtue of its wins over Wright State. OU currently holds the tie breaker against Green Bay. For that to change, Green Bay probably has to beat NKU, and definitely has to beat 1 of NKU/WSU (although if they lose to both, they likely will finish behind OU anyway). Basically, for Green Bay to get control of the tie breaker against Oakland, they probably have to win enough that they won't need the tiebreaker. Green Bay has the toughest schedule of these three teams. Even if the Titans, as I hope, beat Oakland on Saturday, I think there is a very good chance that OU catches Green Bay and/or UIC in the standings. I think Oakland and UIC host first round conference tournament games. with Green Bay behind them, and there's a good chance of that even if Green Bay beats UIC on Thursday.
UIC holds the tiebreaker over Youngstown, and it would take a miraculous combo of wins and losses around the league to change that. Green Bay also holds the tie breaker over YSU, and will keep it unless they lose one more game to the NKU/WSU pair than Youngstown does or has the same results against those two teams and loses to UIC.
That all means YSU is unlikely to overtake any of the three teams above them, especially with road games at NKU and WSU.
7. Detroit 7-8: Schedule: @ Oakland, IUPUI, UIC.
8. IUPUI 6-8: Schedule: Milwaukee, Green Bay, @ Detroit, @ Oakland
Let's say YSU loses to NKU and WSU, and beats Cleveland. Detroit would need to win 2 of three to tie the Penguins, and we would hold the tiebreaker to finish ahead of them. Finishing out of the 7th/8th spots would save us a difficult road trip to NKU or WSU to open the Horizon, instead leaving an easier trip to Green Bay, Oakland, or UIC. If the Titans beat Oakland on Saturday, we'll move into a tie with them. If we were to finish tied, we would hold the tiebreaker if WSU gets past NKU; but they'll hold it if NKU wins the league. PIcking up 1.5 games on Green Bay is also possible, given Green Bay's schedule, and in that scenario, there's a very good chance we'll hold the tiebreaker against the Phoenix. In other words, if the Titans win out, we'll likely finish tied for 4th and hold the tiebreaker for a first round home game. But, can we really win out? Hate to be skeptical, but gotta be skepitcal--we've lost 7 of our last 9. Even winning against Oakland and splitting the home games (beating IUPUI) would give us a solid shot at a 5th place finish though, or at least 6th, thus avoiding the toughest first round games at NKU or WSU. If we lose to IUPUI, though, they'll hold the tie breaker against us, and so would have to lose 2 of their other three for us to place ahead of them in the seeding. IUPUI loses the tie breaker to YSU, but if they win out they would control the tie breaker over Detroit and Green Bay, and probably over Oakland, so they could move up fast. Still, a #7 or #8 seed seems more likely, depending on how they do against our Titans.
9. Milwaukee 4-10. Schedule: @iupui, @ UIC, Northern Kentucky, Wright State. Milwaukee will be eliminated if they lose at IUPUI on Friday. If they win, though, they can still snag the last tournament spot by gaining one more game on IUPUI. The odds of that seem slim, though, given their schedule.
10. Cleveland State 3-12. Schedule: @ Wright State, @ Northern Kentucky, @ Youngstown State. Believe it or not, Cleveland State is not officially eliminated. All they have to do is win their 3 road games against the two league leaders and the hottest team in the league, while IUPUI loses its last 4 games and Milwaukee loses at least twice, but not to IUPUI. That's doable, right?
Predicted Seeds:
1. Northern Kentucky
2. Wright State
3. UIC
4. Oakland
5. Detroit (I'm probably being optimistic, but hey, gotta root for the home team)
6. Green Bay
7. Youngstown State
8. IUPUI
1. Northern Kentucky 10-4. Remaining Schedule: Youngstown State, Cleveland State, @ Milwaukee, @ Green Bay.
2. Wright State 10-4. Remaining Schedule: Same as Wright State.
Currently, NKU holds the tie breaker by virtue of a win over UIC. That would change if Wright State beats Green Bay while Northern loses to Green Bay (but of course that would also move WSU a game ahead of NKU), and Green Bay or Oakland finishes ahead of UIC. Youngstown is hot, Green Bay is a decent team on the road... but then, WSU has the same obstacles. And if I were a Norse fan, I'd figure CSU and YSU at home, plus Milwaukee and Green Bay on the road, is likely good for at least 3 wins. Smart money says NKU will be the #1 seed, and Wright State #2 at tournament time.
3. Green Bay 8-6. Schedule: @ UIC, @ IUPUI, Wright State, Northern Kentucky
4. UIC 8-6. Schedule: Green Bay, Milwaukee, @ Oakland, @ Detroit
5. Oakland 8-7: Schedule: Detroit, UIC, IUPUI
6. Youngstown State 8-7: Schedule @ Northern Kentucky, @ Wright State, Cleveland State.
Right now, Green Bay has the tie breaker for 3rd by virtue of a head to head win over UIC. They can really put UIC in a hole by beating the Flames in Chicago on Friday--they'll be a game up on the Flames and control the tie breaker. But the Flames, playing at home, are in the same position--if they win Thursday, they'll be a game up on the Phoenix, and control the tie-breaker by virtue of 2 wins over Wright State.
But both Green Bay and UIC also have to worry about Oakland. Oakland has only home games left, against the teams that are currently 4, 7, and 8 in the standings. If OU beats UIC, they'll hold that tiebreaker by virtue of a head-to-head sweep. If they lose, however, UIC will keep it, by virtue of its wins over Wright State. OU currently holds the tie breaker against Green Bay. For that to change, Green Bay probably has to beat NKU, and definitely has to beat 1 of NKU/WSU (although if they lose to both, they likely will finish behind OU anyway). Basically, for Green Bay to get control of the tie breaker against Oakland, they probably have to win enough that they won't need the tiebreaker. Green Bay has the toughest schedule of these three teams. Even if the Titans, as I hope, beat Oakland on Saturday, I think there is a very good chance that OU catches Green Bay and/or UIC in the standings. I think Oakland and UIC host first round conference tournament games. with Green Bay behind them, and there's a good chance of that even if Green Bay beats UIC on Thursday.
UIC holds the tiebreaker over Youngstown, and it would take a miraculous combo of wins and losses around the league to change that. Green Bay also holds the tie breaker over YSU, and will keep it unless they lose one more game to the NKU/WSU pair than Youngstown does or has the same results against those two teams and loses to UIC.
That all means YSU is unlikely to overtake any of the three teams above them, especially with road games at NKU and WSU.
7. Detroit 7-8: Schedule: @ Oakland, IUPUI, UIC.
8. IUPUI 6-8: Schedule: Milwaukee, Green Bay, @ Detroit, @ Oakland
Let's say YSU loses to NKU and WSU, and beats Cleveland. Detroit would need to win 2 of three to tie the Penguins, and we would hold the tiebreaker to finish ahead of them. Finishing out of the 7th/8th spots would save us a difficult road trip to NKU or WSU to open the Horizon, instead leaving an easier trip to Green Bay, Oakland, or UIC. If the Titans beat Oakland on Saturday, we'll move into a tie with them. If we were to finish tied, we would hold the tiebreaker if WSU gets past NKU; but they'll hold it if NKU wins the league. PIcking up 1.5 games on Green Bay is also possible, given Green Bay's schedule, and in that scenario, there's a very good chance we'll hold the tiebreaker against the Phoenix. In other words, if the Titans win out, we'll likely finish tied for 4th and hold the tiebreaker for a first round home game. But, can we really win out? Hate to be skeptical, but gotta be skepitcal--we've lost 7 of our last 9. Even winning against Oakland and splitting the home games (beating IUPUI) would give us a solid shot at a 5th place finish though, or at least 6th, thus avoiding the toughest first round games at NKU or WSU. If we lose to IUPUI, though, they'll hold the tie breaker against us, and so would have to lose 2 of their other three for us to place ahead of them in the seeding. IUPUI loses the tie breaker to YSU, but if they win out they would control the tie breaker over Detroit and Green Bay, and probably over Oakland, so they could move up fast. Still, a #7 or #8 seed seems more likely, depending on how they do against our Titans.
9. Milwaukee 4-10. Schedule: @iupui, @ UIC, Northern Kentucky, Wright State. Milwaukee will be eliminated if they lose at IUPUI on Friday. If they win, though, they can still snag the last tournament spot by gaining one more game on IUPUI. The odds of that seem slim, though, given their schedule.
10. Cleveland State 3-12. Schedule: @ Wright State, @ Northern Kentucky, @ Youngstown State. Believe it or not, Cleveland State is not officially eliminated. All they have to do is win their 3 road games against the two league leaders and the hottest team in the league, while IUPUI loses its last 4 games and Milwaukee loses at least twice, but not to IUPUI. That's doable, right?
Predicted Seeds:
1. Northern Kentucky
2. Wright State
3. UIC
4. Oakland
5. Detroit (I'm probably being optimistic, but hey, gotta root for the home team)
6. Green Bay
7. Youngstown State
8. IUPUI