Post by Commissioner on Feb 27, 2021 16:28:13 GMT -5
Northern Kentucky
When: Tuesday, March 2, 7:00 p.m.
Where: Bank of Kentucky Center, Highliand Heights, KY (no fans)
TV: ESPN+
Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM
The hot Titans square off against defending HL Tournament champ and #4 seed Northern Kentucky in the latter's arena on Tuesday, in what is probably the Titans biggest post-season game since 2013.
The Titans, of course, are playing their best ball in years. The last time the Titans won 11 of 13 games was during the 2012 season, when the Titans won 13 of 15 entering the NCAA tournament. To reach the Big Dance this year we'll have to win 14 of 16. The Titans have been a trendy pick to advance to the HL finals--a little too trendy for my contrarian taste. Most early tournament handicappers seem to think the Titans can get by NKU.
Busting Brackets picks the Titans to beat NKU and then advance on to the final game to lose to Wright State.
Mid Major Madness also has the Titans advancing to the final game to lose to WSU.
Vavel also takes Detroit to the finals.
The Game Haus has the Titans beating NKU and "with a great shot" at beating Cleveland State in the semis. The Road to March Madness also has the Titans past NKU.
Last Word on Sports, a Vegas site, does have the Titans losing to NKU.
Likewise, around the league, fans on twitter and on forum boards like this one seem pretty high on Detroit.
But maybe the truly smart money should go chalk. NKU has won three of the last four HL tournaments, and comes in almost as hot as Detroit--the Norse have won 8 of 10, including a win over tournament favorite Wright State. The Norse boast an all-time 8-2 record in Horizon Tournament play, and are also an impressive 9-2, including 8 of the last 9, against Detroit since joining the Horizon for the 2016 season. The Horizon League preseason poll had them third, and the consensus of pre-season polls had them 4th.
I had them 7th in the preseason--WRONG. What I wrote at the time was:
I did note that, "They’ve been winners... I like Horn as a coach, and they do have a very good track record." And in fact, the Norse delivered.
I was always a big fan of Adrian Nelson as a Titan recruit, and other than the fact that he decommitted and headed to NKU when Bacari was fired, he's not disappointed me. This year he upped his scoring from 4.6 to 8.5 points per game, while continuing to make over 68% of his attempts; and upped his rebounds from 6.3 to 9.9 per game. His fellow junior, guard Trevon Faulkner, also stepped up, from 11.9 to 16.6 points; from 4.1 to 5.4 rebounds; and from 1.8 to 2.5 assists. He was a second team all-conference selection. Marques Warrick not only stepped in to the lineup, he was Horizon Freshman of the Year and a third team all-conference selection, averaging 15.9 points while shooting over 37% from the three, stepping it up to 17.5 points and 43.9% from three during conference play.
Junior point guard Bryson Langdon is another who stepped it up, from 7.6 to 10.3 points and from 3.3 to 3.8 assists per game. Senior guard Adham Eleeda upped his 3 point shooting from 25% to 40%; and two other freshman contributed a more than expected: forward David Bohm averaged 7,5 points, and guard Trey Robinson contributed off the bench.
After a 3-5 start in conference play, NKU has gone 8-2 since January 20. A couple things have keyed the turnaround. One was the return of Eleeda, who missed several games with an injury. Eleeda is not a stat stuffer, by any means, but the team needs his spot three point shooting, and generally seems to play better with him. Secondly, Northern Kentucky stepped up the tempo. They upped their field goal attempts from about 54 to about 59 per game, with a corresponding reduction in their average length of possession. Eleeda's return, the increasing emergence of Warrick, and a few more transition possessions helped the Norse up their three point shooting from 28% in those first 8 conference games, to a healthy 36% in the 10 games since. The better play also came when Coach Darrin Horn began using 7-1 walk-on freshman Noah Hupmann. Hupmann has been playing about 10 minutes a game since, and while the stats don't blow you away, he gives them a very different look.
NKU still runs a relatively patient offense, however. While they push the ball more than early in the year, and look for the quicker shot, they will still use up a lot of the shot clock on many possessions, looking for the good shot. Patient teams like NKU often succeed in breaking down a zone late in the possession, so the pressure will be on the Titans to play a full 30 seconds of defense. Not surprisingly, the result of this offensive approach is relatively few possessions, but a high conversion rate and a high 2 point field goal percentage--headed, of course, by Nelson, but also including Warrick, Langdon, and Bohm, all of whom shoot better than 53% on two point attempts, with Faulkner a very competent 48%. Overall, the Norse have shot over 55% from inside the arc in conference play. The Norse are also a good offensive rebounding team, and against the zone could come up with a lot of second and third attempts. But if the Titans can prevent the Norse from gaining the base line or otherwise breaking down the zone, it's not clear, even with their recent improvement, that Northern has the three point shooting to shoot the Titans out of it.(I say this knowing it guarantees a record three point night for the Norse). Warrick (37%) and Eleeda (40%) are both good outside shots. But the rest of the lineup is not, and the Norse are, overall, 9th in the league and 288th in the country in shooting percentage from deep.
On the other side of the ball, the Norse are not a very good defensive team. They're not horrible or anything, but they don't force a lot of turnovers, they don't block a lot of shots, and opponents put up higher than average shooting percentages against them. The Norse have been playing more aggressive defense (man-to-man and match-up zone) in their last 10 games, and while that has forced more turnovers, they've also been fouling more, playing to a Titan strength. And opponents have connected on over 36% of their three point attempts in that span. Couple that with the Titans' three point shooting--we're now up to 14th in the country in percentage, even while taking a lot of three point shots--and the Titans could have a very good night.
An interesting point: 17 of Northern's 23 games have been decided by single digits, and the Norse are 10-7 in those games. By comparison, just 10 of Detroit's 21 have been by single digits, and the Titans are 4-6. NKU has played 7 games that were decided by one possession or less (including overtime games), and is 4-3. We've played 4, and are 2-2. You can look at this as giving Northern an edge in a close game, but I tend not to. Close games--especially 1 possession games--often come down to luck: A bad call or missed call by the ref, a shot that bounces off the rim and through, rather than one that goes halfway down and rattles out; the rare miss by a good shooter vs. the rare make by a poor shooter. Northern does have skill sets that are particularly valuable in winning close games--relatively low turnovers, especially from the point guard Langdon; good offensive rebounding; and excellent foul shooting, especially from the three players--Faulkner, Warrick, and Langdon--most likely to handle the ball. But Detroit commits, on average, fewer turnovers, and has even better foul shooting, especially from the player most likely to handle the ball. I look at it like this: the two teams have comparable records--13-10 vs. 12-9--but the Norse are much closer to a losing season than we are. If we had lost all of our one-possession games, we'd be 10-11; they'd be 9-14. If we had lost 60% of our single digit games, we'd be 12-9. They would be 10-13. We've won 8 of our last 10, with three of those being single digit wins, and one a one-possession win. They've won 8 of 10, but 6 of those wins have been by single digits, and two were one-possession games. They're not far from being way behind us in the standings. The Titans have also played a tougher schedule.
This should be a really interesting game, but I think the Titans win it. We have too much shooting, and they have given up too many three point field goals. We have more depth. Their season so far suggests that they are unlikely to get a big win, and if it is a close game, I like the Titans' free throw shooting and, indeed, overall shooting, plus I think we have better go-to players for one last shot. But you have to be careful. Things could go bad in a hurry. For example, Northern tends to be hot or cold from deep. In their games against Milwaukee three weekends ago, they were 18-37 from three in the first game, but just 6-21 in the second; against Green Bay the next weekend, they went from 8-17 to 4-16; they made 10 of 23 in beating Wright State in the last series of the year, but the next night went 7-21 and lost. If they come out hot from deep, one can envision the Titans extending the zone and suddenly Nelson and the rest are killing us along the baseline. And they are another team that is well-coached, and isn't likely to go away.
Probable Starters
PG: Bryson Langdon, 5-9 Jr. (10.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 26.3% 3Pt)
SG: Trevon Faulkner, 6-3 Jr. (16.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 26.0% 3Pt) (last 10 games 36.8% 3Pt)
SG: Marques Warrick, 6-2 Fr. (15.9 ppg, 37.2% 3Pt)
SF: Adham Eleeda, 6-5 Sr. (5.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 40.3% 3Pt)
PF: Adrian Nelson, 6-7 Jr. (8.5 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 68.2% FG)
Key Bench
G: Trey Robinson, 6-6 Fr. (5.5 ppg, 29.0% 3Pt) (last 10 games 42.9% 3Pt)
F: David Bohm, 6-9 Fr. (7.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 31.1% 3Pt)
C: Noah Hupmann, 7-1 Fr. (1.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg last 10 games)
When: Tuesday, March 2, 7:00 p.m.
Where: Bank of Kentucky Center, Highliand Heights, KY (no fans)
TV: ESPN+
Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM
The hot Titans square off against defending HL Tournament champ and #4 seed Northern Kentucky in the latter's arena on Tuesday, in what is probably the Titans biggest post-season game since 2013.
The Titans, of course, are playing their best ball in years. The last time the Titans won 11 of 13 games was during the 2012 season, when the Titans won 13 of 15 entering the NCAA tournament. To reach the Big Dance this year we'll have to win 14 of 16. The Titans have been a trendy pick to advance to the HL finals--a little too trendy for my contrarian taste. Most early tournament handicappers seem to think the Titans can get by NKU.
Busting Brackets picks the Titans to beat NKU and then advance on to the final game to lose to Wright State.
Mid Major Madness also has the Titans advancing to the final game to lose to WSU.
Vavel also takes Detroit to the finals.
The Game Haus has the Titans beating NKU and "with a great shot" at beating Cleveland State in the semis. The Road to March Madness also has the Titans past NKU.
Last Word on Sports, a Vegas site, does have the Titans losing to NKU.
Likewise, around the league, fans on twitter and on forum boards like this one seem pretty high on Detroit.
But maybe the truly smart money should go chalk. NKU has won three of the last four HL tournaments, and comes in almost as hot as Detroit--the Norse have won 8 of 10, including a win over tournament favorite Wright State. The Norse boast an all-time 8-2 record in Horizon Tournament play, and are also an impressive 9-2, including 8 of the last 9, against Detroit since joining the Horizon for the 2016 season. The Horizon League preseason poll had them third, and the consensus of pre-season polls had them 4th.
I had them 7th in the preseason--WRONG. What I wrote at the time was:
they have no size, and are asking people like Harge, Warrick, Adrian Nelson and Trevon Faulkner to do stuff they’ve not come close to doing in the past. To finish even this high, a lot of guys—that is to say, pretty much every player—will have to do things they’ve never done before.
I did note that, "They’ve been winners... I like Horn as a coach, and they do have a very good track record." And in fact, the Norse delivered.
I was always a big fan of Adrian Nelson as a Titan recruit, and other than the fact that he decommitted and headed to NKU when Bacari was fired, he's not disappointed me. This year he upped his scoring from 4.6 to 8.5 points per game, while continuing to make over 68% of his attempts; and upped his rebounds from 6.3 to 9.9 per game. His fellow junior, guard Trevon Faulkner, also stepped up, from 11.9 to 16.6 points; from 4.1 to 5.4 rebounds; and from 1.8 to 2.5 assists. He was a second team all-conference selection. Marques Warrick not only stepped in to the lineup, he was Horizon Freshman of the Year and a third team all-conference selection, averaging 15.9 points while shooting over 37% from the three, stepping it up to 17.5 points and 43.9% from three during conference play.
Junior point guard Bryson Langdon is another who stepped it up, from 7.6 to 10.3 points and from 3.3 to 3.8 assists per game. Senior guard Adham Eleeda upped his 3 point shooting from 25% to 40%; and two other freshman contributed a more than expected: forward David Bohm averaged 7,5 points, and guard Trey Robinson contributed off the bench.
After a 3-5 start in conference play, NKU has gone 8-2 since January 20. A couple things have keyed the turnaround. One was the return of Eleeda, who missed several games with an injury. Eleeda is not a stat stuffer, by any means, but the team needs his spot three point shooting, and generally seems to play better with him. Secondly, Northern Kentucky stepped up the tempo. They upped their field goal attempts from about 54 to about 59 per game, with a corresponding reduction in their average length of possession. Eleeda's return, the increasing emergence of Warrick, and a few more transition possessions helped the Norse up their three point shooting from 28% in those first 8 conference games, to a healthy 36% in the 10 games since. The better play also came when Coach Darrin Horn began using 7-1 walk-on freshman Noah Hupmann. Hupmann has been playing about 10 minutes a game since, and while the stats don't blow you away, he gives them a very different look.
NKU still runs a relatively patient offense, however. While they push the ball more than early in the year, and look for the quicker shot, they will still use up a lot of the shot clock on many possessions, looking for the good shot. Patient teams like NKU often succeed in breaking down a zone late in the possession, so the pressure will be on the Titans to play a full 30 seconds of defense. Not surprisingly, the result of this offensive approach is relatively few possessions, but a high conversion rate and a high 2 point field goal percentage--headed, of course, by Nelson, but also including Warrick, Langdon, and Bohm, all of whom shoot better than 53% on two point attempts, with Faulkner a very competent 48%. Overall, the Norse have shot over 55% from inside the arc in conference play. The Norse are also a good offensive rebounding team, and against the zone could come up with a lot of second and third attempts. But if the Titans can prevent the Norse from gaining the base line or otherwise breaking down the zone, it's not clear, even with their recent improvement, that Northern has the three point shooting to shoot the Titans out of it.(I say this knowing it guarantees a record three point night for the Norse). Warrick (37%) and Eleeda (40%) are both good outside shots. But the rest of the lineup is not, and the Norse are, overall, 9th in the league and 288th in the country in shooting percentage from deep.
On the other side of the ball, the Norse are not a very good defensive team. They're not horrible or anything, but they don't force a lot of turnovers, they don't block a lot of shots, and opponents put up higher than average shooting percentages against them. The Norse have been playing more aggressive defense (man-to-man and match-up zone) in their last 10 games, and while that has forced more turnovers, they've also been fouling more, playing to a Titan strength. And opponents have connected on over 36% of their three point attempts in that span. Couple that with the Titans' three point shooting--we're now up to 14th in the country in percentage, even while taking a lot of three point shots--and the Titans could have a very good night.
An interesting point: 17 of Northern's 23 games have been decided by single digits, and the Norse are 10-7 in those games. By comparison, just 10 of Detroit's 21 have been by single digits, and the Titans are 4-6. NKU has played 7 games that were decided by one possession or less (including overtime games), and is 4-3. We've played 4, and are 2-2. You can look at this as giving Northern an edge in a close game, but I tend not to. Close games--especially 1 possession games--often come down to luck: A bad call or missed call by the ref, a shot that bounces off the rim and through, rather than one that goes halfway down and rattles out; the rare miss by a good shooter vs. the rare make by a poor shooter. Northern does have skill sets that are particularly valuable in winning close games--relatively low turnovers, especially from the point guard Langdon; good offensive rebounding; and excellent foul shooting, especially from the three players--Faulkner, Warrick, and Langdon--most likely to handle the ball. But Detroit commits, on average, fewer turnovers, and has even better foul shooting, especially from the player most likely to handle the ball. I look at it like this: the two teams have comparable records--13-10 vs. 12-9--but the Norse are much closer to a losing season than we are. If we had lost all of our one-possession games, we'd be 10-11; they'd be 9-14. If we had lost 60% of our single digit games, we'd be 12-9. They would be 10-13. We've won 8 of our last 10, with three of those being single digit wins, and one a one-possession win. They've won 8 of 10, but 6 of those wins have been by single digits, and two were one-possession games. They're not far from being way behind us in the standings. The Titans have also played a tougher schedule.
This should be a really interesting game, but I think the Titans win it. We have too much shooting, and they have given up too many three point field goals. We have more depth. Their season so far suggests that they are unlikely to get a big win, and if it is a close game, I like the Titans' free throw shooting and, indeed, overall shooting, plus I think we have better go-to players for one last shot. But you have to be careful. Things could go bad in a hurry. For example, Northern tends to be hot or cold from deep. In their games against Milwaukee three weekends ago, they were 18-37 from three in the first game, but just 6-21 in the second; against Green Bay the next weekend, they went from 8-17 to 4-16; they made 10 of 23 in beating Wright State in the last series of the year, but the next night went 7-21 and lost. If they come out hot from deep, one can envision the Titans extending the zone and suddenly Nelson and the rest are killing us along the baseline. And they are another team that is well-coached, and isn't likely to go away.
Probable Starters
PG: Bryson Langdon, 5-9 Jr. (10.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 26.3% 3Pt)
SG: Trevon Faulkner, 6-3 Jr. (16.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 26.0% 3Pt) (last 10 games 36.8% 3Pt)
SG: Marques Warrick, 6-2 Fr. (15.9 ppg, 37.2% 3Pt)
SF: Adham Eleeda, 6-5 Sr. (5.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 40.3% 3Pt)
PF: Adrian Nelson, 6-7 Jr. (8.5 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 68.2% FG)
Key Bench
G: Trey Robinson, 6-6 Fr. (5.5 ppg, 29.0% 3Pt) (last 10 games 42.9% 3Pt)
F: David Bohm, 6-9 Fr. (7.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 31.1% 3Pt)
C: Noah Hupmann, 7-1 Fr. (1.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg last 10 games)