Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 21, 2022 0:24:17 GMT -5
So, into the final weekend. If the Conference Tournament began today, it would be:
First Round
#12 IUPUI @ #5 Oakland
#11 Green Bay @ #6 Youngstown State
#10 Robert Morris @ #7 Detroit
#9 Milwaukee @ #8 UIC
Quarterfinals
Oakland/IUPUI @ #4 Wright State
Youngstown State/Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky
Detroit/Robert Morris @ Purdue-Fort Wayne
UIC/Milwaukee @ Cleveland State
I can live with that.
Scenarios:
The Certainties:
- Cleveland State has clinched the #1 seed.
Everyone else:
Let's start at the bottom:
- IUPUI: will be the 12th seed, unless they win twice and Green Bay loses twice this weekend. That's not as far-fetched as it sounds: IUPUI hosts Green Bay and Milwaukee this weekend, and Green Bay other game is at UIC. In any case, IUPUI will be the 11th or 12th seed.
- Green Bay: will be no higher than the 10th seed, which they can reach only if they win twice while Robert Morris loses twice. But that's not far-fetched either; Robert Morris plays at NKU and Wright State, while Green Bay, of course, is at IUPUI and UIC.
- Robert Morris: can get the 9th seed if they win twice and Milwaukee loses twice. This seems unlikely--figure RMU for 10 or 11.
- Milwaukee is the probable #9 seed, but they could get #8 if they win twice--certainly possible at IUPUI and UIC-- and UIC loses to Green Bay as well as Milwaukee.
- Barring the above scenario, UIC will be the #8 seed.
Now it gets crazy.
- Detroit: The Titans will finish no lower than our current position--7th--but with a sweep can finish as high as third. More realistically, the Titans are a game behind Oakland and Youngstown State, but if we can gain a game on either, we'll pass them in winning percentage. We'll also catch Wright State if we win both and they lose at least one. There's a decent chance of that. While the Titans have a pair of tough home games with champion Cleveland State and red-hot Fort Wayne, Oakland has the same pair, and YSU is on the road at NKU and Wright State. If we win both games next week, the Titans will move up to at least 6th, A Titan sweep gets us at least a #6 seed because either WSU or YSU is guaranteed a loss--they play each other. A sweep could get us to a #4 seed if, for example, OU loses to either PFW or CSU, and the winner of the YSU/WSU game loses it's other game (most probable is YSU beats WSU, then loses at NKU). But more likely we're 5th or 6th, even with a sweep. If we split, we still catch OU or YSU if either loses both--definitely a possibility. If we loses both, we're #7 seed.
YSU: YSU can finish anywhere from 2nd to 7th. If they sweep NKU and WSU, they'll finish no worse than 4th.
Oakland: Likewise, OU can finish from 2nd to 7th, and with a sweep will be no worse than 4th.
Wright State: Can finish... from 2nd to 7th. If they sweep YSU and Robt. Morris, they'll also finish no worse than 4th.
NKU: Will finish between 3rd and 6th. If they sweep, they'll finish no worse than third.
Fort Wayne: With a sweep, Fort Wayne could conceivably tie for the regular season title, but will be seeded #2 based on the tie breaker. If they lose both, they could drop all the way to 7th, though it's not that likely.
Not 100% certain, but I believe the Horizon reseeds after the initial round plays out, so the quarterfinals could look different than what you’ve outlined.