|
Post by Commissioner on Sept 19, 2023 9:45:25 GMT -5
Speaking of Chicago State, this is almost certainly the worst program in D-1.
Basketball Reference lists 490 schools that at some point have played in D-1 or, before the creation of divisions, what they consider to have been its equivalent. Of those, Chicago State has them 6th worst all-time winning percentage--but all 5 schools with worse percentages gave up on D-1 years ago. (They are the Southwestern Texas Pirates, who were considered the D1 equivalent in the 1915 and 1916 seasons; the Sewanee Tigers (1923-1941); the Armstrong College Pirates, who tried out D1 for the 1987 season, then scurried back to their own true level; the Morris Brown Wolverines, who unwisely gave D1 a shot for the 2002 and 2003 seasons; and the US International Gulls, who lasted 10 years in D-1 and are best known for Kevin Bradshaw, the nation's leading scorer in 1991, when the Gulls went 2-26).
The Cougars have now played in D1 for 39 seasons, with an all-time .259 Winning percentage. In that time, they've had just 3 winning seasons--their very 1st two, in 1985 and 1986, and then in 2009, when they went 19-13 against a schedule that somehow included 10 games against non-D1 opposition. Needless to say, they have never received a bid to either the NCAA or NIT tournaments. In 8 seasons from 2015 through 2022, they won a total of 35 games, and 15 of those were against non-D1 competition.
Why do I bring this all up? Because some people think the Cougars are actually going to be pretty good this year. Last month, the Cougars signed 6-9 twins Matt and Ryan Bewley. At one time, both were 5-star recruits. Back in 2021, Matt was ranked as the No. 2 overall player in the 247Sports 2023 recruiting rankings and No. 3 by ESPN and Rivals. Ryan was rated 20th by 247Sports, 12th by ESPN, and 16th by Rivals. They have played the last two seasons for Overtime Elite, the pro league for ages 16-20. (I didn't know you could play professional and then still be eligible for NCAA competition--makes NIL seem more sensible. Both young men are already rich, or at least well-off, having had 7-figure contracts for their two years with Overtime Elite). Neither lit up Overtime Elite, but both were good-- Matt averaged 11.3 points and 9.1 rebounds; Ryan 10.7 and 7.7. Both appear to have serious academic issues, but Chicago State shouldn't be too tough.
They join returning guard Wesley Cardot (16.6 ppg) and small forward Jahsean Corbett (14.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg). The Cougars could actually be good!
|
|
|
Post by motorcitysam on Sept 19, 2023 11:04:06 GMT -5
Speaking of Chicago State, this is almost certainly the worst program in D-1. Basketball Reference lists 490 schools that at some point have played in D-1 or, before the creation of divisions, what they consider to have been its equivalent. Of those, Chicago State has them 6th worst all-time winning percentage--but all 5 schools with worse percentages gave up on D-1 years ago. (They are the Southwestern Texas Pirates, who were considered the D1 equivalent in the 1915 and 1916 seasons; the Sewanee Tigers (1923-1941); the Armstrong College Pirates, who tried out D1 for the 1987 season, then scurried back to their own true level; the Morris Brown Wolverines, who unwisely gave D1 a shot for the 2002 and 2003 seasons; and the US International Gulls, who lasted 10 years in D-1 and are best known for Kevin Bradshaw, the nation's leading scorer in 1991, when the Gulls went 2-26). The Cougars have now played in D1 for 39 seasons, with an all-time .259 Winning percentage. In that time, they've had just 3 winning seasons--their very 1st two, in 1985 and 1986, and then in 2009, when they went 19-13 against a schedule that somehow included 10 games against non-D1 opposition. Needless to say, they have never received a bid to either the NCAA or NIT tournaments. In 8 seasons from 2015 through 2022, they won a total of 35 games, and 15 of those were against non-D1 competition. Why do I bring this all up? Because some people think the Cougars are actually going to be pretty good this year. Last month, the Cougars signed 6-9 twins Matt and Ryan Bewley. At one time, both were 5-star recruits. Back in 2021, Matt was ranked as the No. 2 overall player in the 247Sports 2023 recruiting rankings and No. 3 by ESPN and Rivals. Ryan was rated 20th by 247Sports, 12th by ESPN, and 16th by Rivals. They have played the last two seasons for Overtime Elite, the pro league for ages 16-20. (I didn't know you could play professional and then still be eligible for NCAA competition--makes NIL seem more sensible. Both young men are already rich, or at least well-off, having had 7-figure contracts for their two years with Overtime Elite). Neither lit up Overtime Elite, but both were good-- Matt averaged 11.3 points and 9.1 rebounds; Ryan 10.7 and 7.7. Both appear to have serious academic issues, but Chicago State shouldn't be too tough. They join returning guard Wesley Cardot (16.6 ppg) and small forward Jahsean Corbett (14.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg). The Cougars could actually be good! They also have AJ Neal, who was a ranked a top 150 recruit in high school by Rivals and 24/7 in the class of 2021. He was a late signee, inking his NLI with Long Beach State. He only played 16 games there, and didn't see much action. He transferred to Chicago State for the 2022-23 season, but sat out after suffering a knee injury. He has some ability; the question is, can he reach that potential. Unfortunately, it looks like they are still without a conference, so their schedule isn't kind. I did a quick count, and it looks like they have 12 home games, with games against Mercer and Eastern Kentucky probably the ones that stand out the most. Their fans can see them play other games in the City of Chicago, however, against Loyola and DePaul. Other buy games on the schedule include Northwestern, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Duquesne (I'm guessing that's a buy game). They take a drive over to Valpo in a rematch of the game they won last year and travel to Cancun for a couple of games in the Cancun Challenge. This could be an important year for the Cougars. Landing the Bewley twins is good for publicity, and if they are team focused they could make a big impact. The twins have a previous relationship with the Chicago State head coach, who was their AAU coach before they went to Overtime Elite. At the very least, they are both 6-9 220 plus, which most mid major teams would love to have. The Cougars loaded up on buy games, which I think was smart. Smarter still, three of them are within easy driving distance if the fans want to make the trip. I'm rooting for Chicago State. I hope they enjoy some upset wins and have luck in their search for a conference. I'm still on the side of hoping they join the HL.
|
|
|
Post by fan on Sept 19, 2023 11:58:16 GMT -5
Sounds like that old Gabe Kaplin movie
|
|
|
Post by motorcitysam on Sept 19, 2023 12:04:09 GMT -5
Sounds like that old Gabe Kaplin movie Fast Break!
|
|
|
Post by fan on Sept 19, 2023 17:16:54 GMT -5
That's it, who knew it was a training film for the future of college basketball
|
|
|
Post by Rogobob77 on Oct 24, 2023 11:11:31 GMT -5
From the Extra Points newsletter:
But those are newsletters for next week. Today, I’d like to focus on a story a little closer to home…or at least, my home. Let’s talk Chicago State basketball.
Last week, my old colleague and Friend of the Newsletter Rodger Sherman noted college basketball’s most unique schedule for this season…that of the independent Chicago State Cougars:
tw profile: Rodger Sherman “Does 29-0 Chicago State get into the NCAA Tournament” is my favorite college basketball hypothetical this year. I feel like the committee leaves them out"
What is the maximum number of games that they can lose in order to get an invitation to the NCAA Tournament? What about the NIT? Chicago State is the only D-I program competing as a basketball independent. That’s not by choice…but the Cougars left the WAC in 2022 and are still searching for a conference home. While the school figures out if it can launch an FCS football program and continues negotiations with a few different leagues, its basketball team needs to cobble together a schedule and hope for the best.
Competing as an independent used to be much more common in college basketball, but nowadays, it’s a designation left for schools that are reclassifying or in the middle of conference transitions. Many independent basketball programs opted to join leagues once the NCAA allowed conferences to send more than one team to the NCAA Tournament. By the 1980s, only a handful of major programs, like Notre Dame, DePaul, Dayton, and Miami.
I think the last Independent team to make the NCAA Tournament was DePaul in 1990-1991. The Blue Demons went 20-9 and earned a #9 seed, and then lost in the first round.
A handful of teams have completed strong seasons as independent programs, but none of them qualified for the Tournament. Here’s how a few of them did:
The 1991-1992 UMKC Roos went 21-7, beat Baylor and Texas A&M, and only lost to a Cincinnati team that won 29 games by five points. But overall, they played a sub 200 strength of schedule and lost to bad Jackson State and Western Illinois teams. They did not play in any postseason events. The 1992-1993 UW-Milwaukee Panthers went 23-4, beat Wisconsin on the road, and didn’t make the Tournament.
The 1996-1997 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles went 21-7, beat a top 25 Arkansas team, beat a 21-win Montana squad on the road, and beat a Valpo team that won the Mid-Con and did not make the NCAAs. They did, however, make the NIT, losing to Notre Dame in the first round.
Texas-Rio Grande Valley went 20-10 in 2001-2002 and beat Baylor, but also played ten non-D-I teams. They, unsurprisingly, didn’t make the Tournament.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi won 20 games in back-to-back seasons (2004-2005 and 2005-2006). They beat a TCU squad that won 21 games, an Old Dominion team that went 28-6, and a few struggling power conference teams, but also feasted on reclassifying and non-D-I programs. Neither squad played in the postseason.
Utah Valley went 22-7 in 2006-2007. They beat a 20-win North Dakota State team, a competent Albany squad, and absolutely nobody else worth a darn. So that’s sort of the baseline here.
Given that the bulk of Chicago State’s games will be Quad 4 games, the Cougars will likely need to win at least 23 games, and notch some quality wins, to even be in the conversation.
On paper, technically, Chicago State should have enough opportunities to win enough big games to qualify.
The bulk of Chicago State’s schedule comes from fellow stragglers near the bottom of D-I…teams like Cal State Northridge, Northern Colorado, Bethune Cookman, and Stetson (twice). The Cougars also play programs in the process of finalizing their reclassification to D-I, like St. Thomas and Southern Indiana, as well as three non-D-I opponents (East West, St. Xavier, and Indiana Northwest). Those…are not going to help the ol’ NET rating.
But there are some opportunities for big wins. Chicago State also travels to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. The Cougars also have a late season bout with Duquesne and Loyola-Chicago, A-10 teams that KenPom projects to win at least 20 games.
Now…let’s be clear about something. Chicago State is not favored to win anywhere near enough games to actually be in the postseason conversation. Recently, Chicago State was near the absolute bottom of D-I basketball.
That’s not the case anymore! Last year’s team won 11 games and was pretty competitive against several MAC, Horizon, and OVC opponents. They were a bad team, yes, but they weren’t a meme by any means.
This year, KenPom projects a 10-19 record, ranking the Cougars at 325 in the country. Again, that is bad, but it isn’t horrific. Seeing as Chicago State routinely finished below 340 over the last seven years…starting at 325 is progress.
But what if they catch absolute magic in a bottle? What if they go undefeated?
I understand Rodger’s skepticism here, but based on statistical projects, an undefeated Chicago State is EASILY in the NCAA field. One prognosticator, Barttorvik, would have the Cougars as a ONE seed if they went 29-0. If they went 28-1, only losing their road game at Wisconsin (their top projected opponent), the system projects them as a three-seed, still with a 99% chance of making the NCAA field.
Let’s say they lose to their three top opponents (at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, and at Kansas State). Somewhat surprisingly, at 26-3, Barttorvik lists Chicago State as a probable nine seed, with an 89% of making the NCAAs. But at 25-4, (adding a loss at Duquense), the Cougars drop out of the field, with only a 26% chance of making the NCAAs.
Just for fun, what if Chicago State beats some of these elite teams, but then loses a dumb game or two, as nearly everybody does? At 26-3, with a win over Northwestern but a loss against say, Southern Illinois (ranked 166), the Cougars would be a seven seed. Most combinations I could come up with at 26-3 had Chicago State in the field, but with four losses, it was difficult to come up with a system where the Cougars had above a 50% tournament shot.
So that’s my answer. I think Chicago State needs at least 26 wins to feel good about making the NCAA Tournament, and probably at least 23 to feel really good about the NIT.
Unlikely? Yeah, probably. But it would be pretty cool if it happened, don’t you think?
|
|
|
Post by motorcitysam on Oct 24, 2023 16:21:31 GMT -5
Chicago State's preseason KenPom ranking puts them five spots behind IUPUI and 25 spots ahead of Green Bay. I wonder how they would do in the HL. They beat IUPUI last season and should be better this year.
Of course, they aren't making it to the Big Dance, but I would love to see them have a winning record. I root for them. They are David in land of Goliaths. And I have a soft spot for City schools. During my annual preseason shopping for new basketball gear, I ordered a couple of Chicago State basketball items. I think that the program has some positives (location and recruiting pool) that could help it make a jump if they end up in the right conference. The Windy City still puts out a ton of basketball talent, which could help the Cougars. As more teams depend on the portal, some talented high school guys from Chicago might get pushed down to Chicago State. Also, Chicago State might be able to position themselves as a destination for ranked local recruits who fail to find footing at UIC, Loyola-Chicago, MAC schools in Illinois, and want to return home to jump start their careers at a lower level.
I'm still of the mindset that the HL and CSU should be talking about getting together. The Cougar program has its warts, but the Horizon League isn't winning any beauty contests either.
|
|
|
Post by fan on Oct 24, 2023 16:53:51 GMT -5
If the HL has YSU and WSU, why not CSU. Chicago certainly seems like a better destination than Dayton or Youngstown.
|
|
|
Post by Big DWSU on Oct 24, 2023 19:35:58 GMT -5
If the HL has YSU and WSU, why not CSU. Chicago certainly seems like a better destination than Dayton or Youngstown. LMFAO. Because the HL needs more schools like Wright State, that consistently win 20 games and enhance the conference. We don't need another inner city school with shitty athletics that won't spend anything to improve their circumstances. Seriously, we already have Detroit and IUPUI. The conference can't afford to carry any more dead weight.
|
|
|
Post by fan on Oct 24, 2023 22:07:33 GMT -5
That's all true, but in the current league-jumping environment, I think the HL needs to load up with schools, even if it's just insurance. Wright State is ok in the HL, but would be nowhere at the next level, like say the MAC.
Back when we were the U of D, playing the Xaviers and Marquttes of the world, Wright State would have been an exhibition game.
|
|
|
Post by Commissioner on Oct 24, 2023 23:04:59 GMT -5
If the HL has YSU and WSU, why not CSU. Chicago certainly seems like a better destination than Dayton or Youngstown. LMFAO. Because the HL needs more schools like Wright State, that consistently win 20 games and enhance the conference. We don't need another inner city school with shitty athletics that won't spend anything to improve their circumstances. Seriously, we already have Detroit and IUPUI. The conference can't afford to carry any more dead weight. I would hate to add Chicago State. No budget, they usually stink, no fan base, no presence in Chicago market, not a part of Chicago where you want to go. Detroit's problem isn't spending. Our hoops budget has long been near the top of the league. In 2019 and 2020 WSU and UD were 1/2 in the HL in men's basketball spending; in 2022 (last year reported) they were 3/4, after being passed by Milwaukee and Cleveland State.
|
|
|
Post by motorcitysam on Nov 3, 2023 15:59:04 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by motorcitysam on Nov 12, 2023 18:52:44 GMT -5
Congrats to Chicago State. They got their first win of the season in a double digit road win over Southern Indiana, 78-67. The Cougars were up 19 at the break. The Screaming Eagles cut it to 11 in the second half, but CSU was never really threatened. It's a nice win, as they bounced back from a competitive loss to Mercer on November 9.
|
|
|
Post by Rogobob77 on Nov 13, 2023 11:37:02 GMT -5
This is from today's Extra Points newsletter:
Let’s check in on Chicago State
Back in September, Chicago State announced they were taking the next steps in their goal to launch an FCS football program, kicking off a public fundraising initiative.
I will freely admit, I was pretty skeptical when I saw the press release. I know Chicago State has kicked around the idea of starting a football team for years, (for at least as long as Extra Points has been publishing) but launching the program would require an expansion of resources and personnel that extends far beyond what the program has pulled off in recent memory.
I’m still not completely convinced the effort actually happens, but folks familiar with the department have told me that actually, the program’s fundraising efforts have gone very well, securing commitments from individual and corporate partners. Not everything is completely in the bag yet, but I’m told there is legitimate optimism on the South Side. It’s also worth noting that I’m told Chicago State doesn’t need to build a ton of new buildings to make this happen, as existing campus infrastructure can provide the requisite meeting halls, weight rooms, locker rooms, etc, for a significantly expanded athletic department. They also won’t need to build an on-campus stadium.
All of that is good news for the Cougars, as I’ve been repeatedly told that Chicago State’s conference affiliation options are limited if they’re unable to commit to launching an FCS football program. The lack of football, I’m told, has been a sticking point in previous conversations with the MEAC (the league the school would pick if it was completely up to them), the Southland, OVC, and others.
But maybe that could change.
Industry sources have also told me that recently, Chicago State has also discussed conference affiliation membership options with the NEC.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about how the NEC doesn’t have a ton of immediate membership options, after Sacred Heart and Merrimack announced they are departing for the MAAC. Outside of New Haven, I’ve been hearing that there aren’t really other D-II schools that are interested (or can afford) in reclassifying to D-I.
Compounding their predicament is the issue of automatic bids. With the two most recent departures, the NEC only has seven members, and current bylaws require leagues to have eight teams if they want to keep that NCAA Tournament autobid. Typically, leagues can get two-year waivers if their membership dips below the minimum, but since two of the seven NEC schools are currently in the reclassification process themselves, there is some concern that the league could lose their bid if they don’t move quickly.
The ADs and industry folks I’ve talked to believe that if push really came to shove, the NEC would still get a waiver, as long as they don’t lose any other members. But you can understand why maybe league membership would prefer to not go down that path.
Enter Chicago State. They’re the only independent in D-I college basketball, and they’re not considered a reclassifying institution, so they could help the NEC get to eight schools.
FWIW, here’s an official statement an NEC spokesperson provided to me last week:
The NEC Council of Presidents is actively engaged in discussions around conference membership expansion. Per conference policy, conversations with potential new members are treated as confidential until we are ready to make an official announcement. While we appreciate the interest in learning more about the NEC's future membership plans, we are unable to disclose specific details at the moment.
Now, is adding Chicago State ideal? No, probably not. Chicago State is more than 500 miles away from the closest NEC school (Saint Francis), and won’t be able to bus anywhere (although flying almost everywhere has been Chicago State’s default experience for most of its D-1 life). Chicago State isn’t going to a huge boon to anyone’s NET or RPI ratings in the short term. But they could provide some short-term stability. And who knows? Maybe a conference home is what they need to accelerate their program rebuilding.
I’m not entirely sure, at this point, if these conversations are about permanent membership, or long-term affiliate invitation.
But the interest, particularly from Chicago State, I’m told, is real. We’ll see if it goes anywhere.
|
|
|
Post by fan on Nov 13, 2023 13:40:43 GMT -5
It might make sense if certain eastern HL teams like YSU or RM flip to the NEC and Chicago State joins the HL.
|
|