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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2019 18:55:34 GMT -5
The whole thing has gotten way out of hand. Some key text:
In two weeks, the N.C.A.A.’s primary legislative body, the Division I Council, will vote on a measure that could severely restrict graduate transfers. The proposed rule change would require that colleges accepting graduate transfers be docked a scholarship the next year if the transfer does not earn his secondary degree within a year.
Nearly 40 percent of Division I men’s basketball players who arrive from high school will transfer by the end of their sophomore year, according to N.C.A.A. data from 2011 to 2017.
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Post by motorcitysam on Apr 4, 2019 19:23:49 GMT -5
The whole thing has gotten way out of hand. Some key text: In two weeks, the N.C.A.A.’s primary legislative body, the Division I Council, will vote on a measure that could severely restrict graduate transfers. The proposed rule change would require that colleges accepting graduate transfers be docked a scholarship the next year if the transfer does not earn his secondary degree within a year. Nearly 40 percent of Division I men’s basketball players who arrive from high school will transfer by the end of their sophomore year, according to N.C.A.A. data from 2011 to 2017. 40 percent??? That's higher than I thought it was, but looking at the anecdotal evidence, can't say I am surprised. I think the intent of the grad transfer rule was fine, but it has been abused. I know a college assistant coach who talks about how lots of high majors keep databases of mid major players who are RS juniors and employ middlemen to reach out to them about transferring before that year is out. It's a mess. I think if that rule is implemented a lot of coaches will just encourage their faculty to "fast track" a student/athlete to a grad degree in one year to avoid the scholarship penalty. I think my rule is best: If you take a grad transfer, you have to use two years of scholarship on him. How many people actually complete their master's requirements in one year, especially with the demands of playing D1 basketball?
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 4, 2019 20:39:31 GMT -5
Transfers are definitely up, and the grad transfer thing is an issue. But there is a tendency to inflate the number of transfers these days. Everyone is called a "transfer," when in the old days they were thought of as "washing out." I don't think even 15 years ago people would have thought of Tra'Quan Knight as "transferring." He was just dropping down a division to a better fit for his talent. Guys like Aaron Foster-Smith never enrolled anywhere else, yet he was listed as a "transfer." No, not really. He just flunked or dropped out.
I do think these are big issues, and it is clear that the number of real transfers is up. But inflating the numbers in these ways actually makes it harder, I think, to really get a handle on the issue and figure out the best policy going forward.
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Post by motorcitysam on Apr 6, 2019 14:48:52 GMT -5
Crazy thing I read yesterday on Twitter: Someone claimed that the grad transfer rule helped schools that are unable to get the one and done players compete with the big boys.
False. Right off the top of my head I can think of several schools that land one and done players that have benefitted from poaching grad transfers from mid majors, including Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, and Oregon (which still stings, for obvious reasons). If anything, the grad transfer rules gives the haves one more advantage over the have nots.
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Post by motorcitysam on Apr 10, 2019 16:25:55 GMT -5
Here's one of those transfers that has me scratching my head. Terrell Allen is transferring from UCF as a grad transfer. Allen was the starting point guard (he started every game) on a team that won 24 games and lost to Duke on a missed tip in at the buzzer, averaging 7 points and 4 assists per game. He's playing for a respected coach in Johnny Dawkins. What is he looking for?
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 10, 2019 17:11:18 GMT -5
Here's one of those transfers that has me scratching my head. Terrell Allen is transferring from UCF as a grad transfer. Allen was the starting point guard (he started every game) on a team that won 24 games and lost to Duke on a missed tip in at the buzzer, averaging 7 points and 4 assists per game. He's playing for a respected coach in Johnny Dawkins. What is he looking for? It's what all the cool kids do.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2019 8:05:02 GMT -5
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Post by ptctitan on Apr 16, 2019 8:35:01 GMT -5
It's what all the cool kids do. When there is no downside risk to placing your name in the transfer portal or declaring for the NBA draft and hiring an agent, you get this mess. All out of some sense of guilt that giving a basketball player $40-50K per year of free education plus room and board and free use of fitness and training facilities is somehow not enough compensation for his services.
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 16, 2019 11:16:58 GMT -5
As of noon today, Verbal Commits lists 653 transfers. 122 of those have made some announcement of a new school, and 42 of those--over one-third--are transferring to schools below the D-I level. I suspect that percentage will pretty well hold, and may even go higher as some players holding out for DI find no takers. Then there are those who will never play at the collegiate level again--think Aaron Foster-Smith.
Obviously, transfers are up. Some of them--the Hausers leaving Marquette?--make zero sense to me, though obviously I don't know all the facts and circumstances of any of them. But it exaggerates the issue and makes it harder to get a handle on it when we keep inflating the numbers. In the old days, we'd just say that one-third or more was cut from the team.
Meanwhile, 174 of the total have immediate eligibility, i.e. are grad transfers. This clearly seems to be where the issue lies (those perhaps I shouldn't say that, since I've never seen an analysis comparing past numbers and looking at trends). Somewhat surprising to me, a good percentage of these also are dropping down -- 7 of the 27 who have a new destination announced, per Verbal Commits. (Note that if we take out grad transfers, those with announced new destinations who are dropping down from D1 reaches almost 40%.)
Take out grad transfers and you're down from 653 to 479 transfers. If we estimate that one-third of them--probable a low number--will not continue in D1 ball, we're down to just over 300 transfers. That's a lot, but well under 1 per team on average. And that number is probably inflated by those schools that lose a coach, since the coach often takes a couple players with him.
The NCAA is thinking of a rule that would require a player to finish his grad degree within 1 year, or charge the school a second year scholarship. A better idea would be to simply extend the eligibility window from 5 years to 6 and require another year sitting out. That would really make sure that the student wanted that grad degree, and would prevent pressure on schools to cheat on granting credit toward graduate degrees. Most graduate and professional degrees are designed to take more than a year.
Another option--don't allow grad players at all. NCAA sports would simply be for undergrads. Students could still graduate in three years if so inclined. Only about 20% of students graduate in 4 years anyway. At more elite schools--a better measure because the drop-out rate is much lower--it's about 36%. In other words, even for those who graduate, taking 5 years to graduate is not unusual. What I'm getting at is that even if a student sits a year as a transfer, it wouldn't be atypical that after that redshirt junior year (i.e. his 4th year in school) he would not have a degree. So it's not like we're forcing students to prolong their college in some unusual way. And since most students aren't going pro, those who graduate and leave with a year of eligibility just represent the ideal of the student-athlete.
Anyway, just a couple ideas. I really began this post just trying to make a small start toward a more rational discussion of the transfer issue, which I think starts by actually looking at how many students are transferring within D1, and then looking at the number of grad transfers.
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Post by ptctitan on Apr 16, 2019 18:56:39 GMT -5
Joey Brunk to Indiana as a grad transfer.
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Post by ptctitan on Apr 16, 2019 18:58:45 GMT -5
Akron's Daniel Otumi to USC as a grad transfer.
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Post by Commissioner on Apr 17, 2019 19:24:44 GMT -5
Soe movement from mid-majors to high majors:
Pat Andree from Lehigh to NC State (12.9 ppg,, 6.2 rpg) Takal Molson from Canisius to Seton Hall (16.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) Bryce Moore from Western Michigan to Xavier (9.8 ppg, 39% from 3 in 2018--injury redshirt last year) (shouldn't there be some way to charge that year scholarship to Xavier?) Jason Carter from Ohio U. to Xaver (16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) Daniel Utomi from Akron to USC (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) Noah Bauman from San Jose St to USC (10.8 ppg, 45% from 3) Quinton Adlesh from Columbia to USC (13.5 ppg, 37% from 3) (We know USC's new recruiting strategy) Anthony Duruji from Louisiana Tech to Florida (12.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg) Nate Sestina from Bucknell to Kentucky (15.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 38% from 3)
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Post by titantarheel on Apr 18, 2019 13:23:19 GMT -5
What's interesting is how all the dust will settle on ALL of these transfers. In short, there's FAR too many guys out there as free agents now. Something has to break here.
At some point schools will have decide on what guys they want on their team. At some point players will have to commit and not just hope for bigger and better offers. This uncertainty can't exist indefinitely but the number of players out there suggests there could be some players that have no where to go (but back to their original school) once the music stops playing.
I suspect this will actually harm more than a handful of players as they end-up 'homeless' after playing the transfer portal sweepstakes. If not, homeless, relegated to a situation not what they envisioned.
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Post by motorcitysam on Apr 19, 2019 18:09:56 GMT -5
From Jeff Borzello on Twitter: "Nevada wing Shamiel Stevenson, who transferred in from Pittsburgh in December, has entered the transfer portal, source told ESPN."
So, this young man transferred from Pittsburgh to Nevada four months ago and is now transferring again. Gotta be hoping for a waiver since the Nevada coach left, but it doesn't say much for his decision making.
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Post by motorcitysam on Apr 19, 2019 18:30:01 GMT -5
What's interesting is how all the dust will settle on ALL of these transfers. In short, there's FAR too many guys out there as free agents now. Something has to break here. At some point schools will have decide on what guys they want on their team. At some point players will have to commit and not just hope for bigger and better offers. This uncertainty can't exist indefinitely but the number of players out there suggests there could be some players that have no where to go (but back to their original school) once the music stops playing. I suspect this will actually harm more than a handful of players as they end-up 'homeless' after playing the transfer portal sweepstakes. If not, homeless, relegated to a situation not what they envisioned. This is a GREAT point. So many guys are in the transfer portal that it seems as if some are going to end up back where they started or in spots less desirable than what they had intended. Some guys are probably going to want to go back to the schools they said they were transferring from, but they might not be welcome. Another thing I have noticed is that it seems like more Power 6 programs are taking mid major players through "traditional" transfers, knowing they will probably have to sit for a year. That used to be rare. This means more uncertainty for mid major coaches and fan bases, as more mid major players look to make that jump up. As the Commissioner said in another thread, mid major players "settle" for going mid major. Anyone playing high school basketball and hoping for to play in college is hoping for Michigan State and not EMU. All the mid major guys are hoping to be Bryn Forbes when they transfer.
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