Post by Commissioner on Apr 21, 2016 12:16:30 GMT -5
Whew. We're 6 weeks since the Horizon tournament ended and this has been a crazy off season for the conference.
Valpo: They were already losing a lot in Conference Defensive POY Vashil Fernandez, pg Keith Carter, guard Damion Walker and g/f Victor Nickerson. But there was a lot back, including the great Alec Peters, plus starter Tevonn Walker and rotation players Shane Hammink, Jubril Adekoya and David Skaara, and 7'1" redshirt freshman Derrik Smits. Still enough to be among the league favorites for sure. But now HC Bryce Drew has lit out for Vanderbilt, Skaara is inexplicably transferring, and Peters has declared for the draft. And while Peters is not likely to hire an agent, and hence to be eligible to return, the word is he can graduate after summer school and may move as a graduate transfer. If Peters comes back, Valpo will be significantly wounded but still a major force -- a lineup of Smits, Peters, Adekoya, Walker and Hammink looks pretty good, though it might be weak at the point. But if Peters goes, it's a different story. While Valpo would still have talent, enough for a first division finish, they won't strike fear into the hearts of league competitors.
Oakland: The Griz might have been the presumptive favorites until Kay Felder walked away. They'll still probably be the favorites, and if freshman Brailen Nealy, often considered something of a Felder clone, performs like Felder did as a freshman, they'll be fine. They also lose center Percy Gibson and three point specialist Max Hooper. They've got plenty of 3 point shooting still, but need one of two sophs, Xavier Hill-Maas or Brad Brechting, to step it up a notch inside. Likely to poll first in the Horizon pre-season poll, with a starting lineup likely to be Brechting, Jalen Hayes, Martez Walker, Nealy, and Sherron Dorsey-Walker, with guard Nick Daniels and Hill-Maas giving them good support off the bench. I look for Martez Walker to really take off, and Hayes is becoming a beast. Still, without Felder, they're not the prohibitive favorite they might have been.
Wright State: A new coach, and a good one in Scott Nagy. But they lose to graduation their 1, 3, and 4 scorers, JT Yoho, Michael Karena, and Joe Thomasson, who are also their 1, 2, and 4 rebounders. They lose their top 3 assists men (Thomasson, Yoho, and Biggie Minnis, the latter of whom was 6th in scoring). Grant Benzinger, their #5 scorer last season, was looking to transfer, but apparently has decided to stay. Anyway, the Raiders lose a lot, and have almost no size returning. Perhaps Nagy can bring in a juco or transfer or two late. He's a good coach, but right now it looks like a tough first year.
Green Bay: Loses its two best players, Jordan Fouse and Carrington Love. They'll be solid, though, especially if sophomore Anthony Brown or touted freshman Trevor Anderson can step up and man the point.
Milwaukee: A program in disarray. Matt Tiby and JJ Panoske graduated. Austin Arians and Akeem Springs have transferred. Jordan Johnson has asked for and received his release --if he goes, that's all 5 starters gone from last year's 5th place team -- a team which relied more heavily on its starters than any other Horizon team. They're also losing back up point guard JR Lyle, and already lost rising soph Jayquan McCloud, who looked pretty good before deciding to transfer, and soph Justin Jordan, who transferred in the fall after being squeezed for PT by McCloud. Even if Johnson comes back, look for a slump to the second division.
Northern Kentucky. Coach John Brannen has an excellent recruiting class coming in, but the Norse are probably at least a year away, with the loss of their top two scorers, Jalen Billups and Tyler White, from last year's 9 win team.
Youngstown State: There's never really light at the end of YSU's tunnel. Bobby Hain missed all of last year's conference schedule, and has now graduated. The silver lining might have been that all of YSU's rotation players were returning from a team which, at least, could score, and beat Oakland and Green Bay. But now conference all-freshman member Jordan Andrews has transferred, and another rising soph with promise, Bryce Nickels, is doing the same. With Cameron Morse and Matt Donlan, the 'Guins will still score, but it's tough to see them making a major move up.
Cleveland State: After last year's transfer-induced disaster, Gary Waters is bringing in more talented recruits to joint a 9 win team that loses its top rebounder, Vinny Zollo. The Vikings will be better, but Waters still has to find some scoring, and they're unlikely to contend in 2017.
UIC: Another top recruiting class for Steve McClain, even better than last year's. Look for a first division finish for the Flames. Still, this team was 5-25 last year. That's a long way to go.
That leaves our Titans. With the losses at all of the 5 clubs that finished ahead of Detroit last year, the Titans have to look pretty good to contend in 2017. We lose #2 scorer Anton Wilson and Carlton Brundidge, who was playing well late in the year. Jarod Williams is also transferring out, but his role had already been sharply reduced. While I think Wilson is going to be missed quite a bit, overall, I would say that the Titans lose the least talent of any of the top 7 teams in last year's standings, and have Dream team star Cory Allen joining the club. If new coach Bacari Alexander can get more maturity out of Paris Bass, the Titans look as good as any team in the league in terms of talent. Another key will be whether Isaiah Jones can be a defensive presence. I have my doubts. But even if Jones is a total washout, a lineup of Bass, Jaleel Hogan, Chris Jenkins, Josh McFolley, and Aaron Foster-Smith, backed by Allen and Gerald Blackshear, should be very competitive. And that's assuming Allen isn't able to force his way into the lineup. Don't be shocked if Allen averages 12 points as a freshman.
Valpo: They were already losing a lot in Conference Defensive POY Vashil Fernandez, pg Keith Carter, guard Damion Walker and g/f Victor Nickerson. But there was a lot back, including the great Alec Peters, plus starter Tevonn Walker and rotation players Shane Hammink, Jubril Adekoya and David Skaara, and 7'1" redshirt freshman Derrik Smits. Still enough to be among the league favorites for sure. But now HC Bryce Drew has lit out for Vanderbilt, Skaara is inexplicably transferring, and Peters has declared for the draft. And while Peters is not likely to hire an agent, and hence to be eligible to return, the word is he can graduate after summer school and may move as a graduate transfer. If Peters comes back, Valpo will be significantly wounded but still a major force -- a lineup of Smits, Peters, Adekoya, Walker and Hammink looks pretty good, though it might be weak at the point. But if Peters goes, it's a different story. While Valpo would still have talent, enough for a first division finish, they won't strike fear into the hearts of league competitors.
Oakland: The Griz might have been the presumptive favorites until Kay Felder walked away. They'll still probably be the favorites, and if freshman Brailen Nealy, often considered something of a Felder clone, performs like Felder did as a freshman, they'll be fine. They also lose center Percy Gibson and three point specialist Max Hooper. They've got plenty of 3 point shooting still, but need one of two sophs, Xavier Hill-Maas or Brad Brechting, to step it up a notch inside. Likely to poll first in the Horizon pre-season poll, with a starting lineup likely to be Brechting, Jalen Hayes, Martez Walker, Nealy, and Sherron Dorsey-Walker, with guard Nick Daniels and Hill-Maas giving them good support off the bench. I look for Martez Walker to really take off, and Hayes is becoming a beast. Still, without Felder, they're not the prohibitive favorite they might have been.
Wright State: A new coach, and a good one in Scott Nagy. But they lose to graduation their 1, 3, and 4 scorers, JT Yoho, Michael Karena, and Joe Thomasson, who are also their 1, 2, and 4 rebounders. They lose their top 3 assists men (Thomasson, Yoho, and Biggie Minnis, the latter of whom was 6th in scoring). Grant Benzinger, their #5 scorer last season, was looking to transfer, but apparently has decided to stay. Anyway, the Raiders lose a lot, and have almost no size returning. Perhaps Nagy can bring in a juco or transfer or two late. He's a good coach, but right now it looks like a tough first year.
Green Bay: Loses its two best players, Jordan Fouse and Carrington Love. They'll be solid, though, especially if sophomore Anthony Brown or touted freshman Trevor Anderson can step up and man the point.
Milwaukee: A program in disarray. Matt Tiby and JJ Panoske graduated. Austin Arians and Akeem Springs have transferred. Jordan Johnson has asked for and received his release --if he goes, that's all 5 starters gone from last year's 5th place team -- a team which relied more heavily on its starters than any other Horizon team. They're also losing back up point guard JR Lyle, and already lost rising soph Jayquan McCloud, who looked pretty good before deciding to transfer, and soph Justin Jordan, who transferred in the fall after being squeezed for PT by McCloud. Even if Johnson comes back, look for a slump to the second division.
Northern Kentucky. Coach John Brannen has an excellent recruiting class coming in, but the Norse are probably at least a year away, with the loss of their top two scorers, Jalen Billups and Tyler White, from last year's 9 win team.
Youngstown State: There's never really light at the end of YSU's tunnel. Bobby Hain missed all of last year's conference schedule, and has now graduated. The silver lining might have been that all of YSU's rotation players were returning from a team which, at least, could score, and beat Oakland and Green Bay. But now conference all-freshman member Jordan Andrews has transferred, and another rising soph with promise, Bryce Nickels, is doing the same. With Cameron Morse and Matt Donlan, the 'Guins will still score, but it's tough to see them making a major move up.
Cleveland State: After last year's transfer-induced disaster, Gary Waters is bringing in more talented recruits to joint a 9 win team that loses its top rebounder, Vinny Zollo. The Vikings will be better, but Waters still has to find some scoring, and they're unlikely to contend in 2017.
UIC: Another top recruiting class for Steve McClain, even better than last year's. Look for a first division finish for the Flames. Still, this team was 5-25 last year. That's a long way to go.
That leaves our Titans. With the losses at all of the 5 clubs that finished ahead of Detroit last year, the Titans have to look pretty good to contend in 2017. We lose #2 scorer Anton Wilson and Carlton Brundidge, who was playing well late in the year. Jarod Williams is also transferring out, but his role had already been sharply reduced. While I think Wilson is going to be missed quite a bit, overall, I would say that the Titans lose the least talent of any of the top 7 teams in last year's standings, and have Dream team star Cory Allen joining the club. If new coach Bacari Alexander can get more maturity out of Paris Bass, the Titans look as good as any team in the league in terms of talent. Another key will be whether Isaiah Jones can be a defensive presence. I have my doubts. But even if Jones is a total washout, a lineup of Bass, Jaleel Hogan, Chris Jenkins, Josh McFolley, and Aaron Foster-Smith, backed by Allen and Gerald Blackshear, should be very competitive. And that's assuming Allen isn't able to force his way into the lineup. Don't be shocked if Allen averages 12 points as a freshman.