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Post by Commissioner on Mar 2, 2017 13:46:47 GMT -5
Based on Ken Pomeroy's rankings, the table below shows the odds of advancing in the Tournament (ht to x96lee15 at the OU board for crunching the numbers): Team | Quarters | Semis | Finals | Champion | Oakland | 100% | 80.8% | 50.97% | 28.58% | Valparaiso | 100% | 86.3% | 62.97% | 37.8% | Green Bay | 100% | 66.69% | 24.78% | 10.21% | Northern Kentucky | 100% | 51.54% | 22.66% | 10.05% | Wright State | 100% | 48.46% | 20.62% | 8.85% | UIC | 100% | 33.31% | 8.01% | 2.11% | Detroit | 50.24% | 6.91% | 2.14% | 0.43% | Cleveland State | 64.6% | 14.39% | 4.73% | 1.35% | Youngstown State | 35.4% | 4.81% | 1.02% | 0.19% | Milwaukee | 49.76% | 6.79% | 2.09% | 0.42% |
Note that these percentages are based on KenPom's season offensive and defensive ratings for the teams. They do not factor other stuff in, some of which is pretty major--like Alec Peters' injury--and some of which is more minor (like perhaps a minor home court advantage for Detroit over Milwaukee). If you just go with Pomeroy's most recent game predictions, Detroit is up from a 50.2% favorite to a 57% favorite in the first round.
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Post by motorcitysam on Mar 4, 2017 20:09:04 GMT -5
That's a brutal loss suffered by Oakland, and it does the conference no good at all. The only people happy about it are Valpo and YSU fans. :-)
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 4, 2017 23:33:13 GMT -5
That's a brutal loss suffered by Oakland, and it does the conference no good at all. The only people happy about it are Valpo and YSU fans. :-) Valpo fans aren't happy any more--they lose to Milwaukee. The one thing OU's loss does is guarantee a Horizon team in the NIT, which was no sure thing had OU won the tournament. But our best bets to win a game are gone. I'm rooting for Youngstown to win it, then win a play in game.
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 5, 2017 8:16:10 GMT -5
Remember this play 3 years ago? Oakland's Kampe totally outcoaches YSU's Jerry Slocum, using a sucker play, a bad defensive set, and a favorable call from the ref to get Travis Bader to the foul line with 0.6 seconds left to play, Bader hits for the tie and then OU wins in OT. Last night Slocum got revenge, outcoaching Kampe. This is a very nice set play to end the game, and a gutsy one. Slocum uses his top scorer, Cameron Morse, as the decoy/feeder--when OU double teams to prevent Morse from scoring, Jorden Kaufman drifts underneath and is left wide open underneath. A gutsy play because there's just not much time on the clock. Click on the link, as I can't embed this. www.espn.com/video/clip?id=18826710&sf60244528=1It's interesting that it's all-defensive teamer Isaiah Brock was the guy caught unawares as Kaufman drifted down under on him. Freshman mistake.
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Post by motorcitysam on Mar 5, 2017 10:47:57 GMT -5
Smart play by Slocum (if that was the play and not just Morse reacting to what the defense gave them) and a bonehead play by the Oakland D. You can't sell out completely to stop a three point shot when you're only up by one. There were two guys wide open under the basket of the on that last play.
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 5, 2017 14:31:13 GMT -5
Smart play by Slocum (if that was the play and not just Morse reacting to what the defense gave them) and a bonehead play by the Oakland D. You can't sell out completely to stop a three point shot when you're only up by one. There were two guys wide open under the basket of the on that last play. Brock blew the play by running out where he probably couldn't help much anyway. My guess is that Slocum called the play with Kaufman to back door exactly as he did, and Morse to shoot or pass if they came at him on the double team. Well executed by Morse, because it's not like he had time. Maybe I'm giving Slocum too much credit, but it's still a beautiful play and look by Morse.
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Post by motorcitysam on Mar 5, 2017 14:54:05 GMT -5
Agreed.
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 5, 2017 17:50:12 GMT -5
Heading into today's action, Northern Kentucky has an RPI of 100. Wright State is 119; Green Bay 146; UIC 250; YSU 251, and Milwaukee 265. None has a top 50 RPI win; the only non-conference top 100 RPI wins are Green Bay over #84 Bakersfield, and YSU's opening day win over Akron. Joe Lunardi currently has Green Bay as a #15 seed. It will be very difficult for any of these teams to reach a #14; slipping to #16 is possible and almost certain if UIC, Youngstown, or Milwaukee wins it.
Oh, and UIC is leading Green Bay at halftime.
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