Post by Commissioner on Jan 14, 2018 16:45:53 GMT -5
The Horizon season is now basically one-third complete--half the league's teams have played 5 games, half have played 6 or 7 of the 18 game conference schedule.
Here would be the Motor City Madness seedings based on today's standings:
1. Wright State 5-0
2. Northern Kentucky 4-1
3. UIC 3-2
4. Youngstown State 3-2
5. Oakland 3-3
6. IUPUI 3-3
7. Milwaukee 2-4
8. Detroit 2-4
9. Green Bay 2-5
10. Cleveland State 1-4
That would leave first round games with CSU v. Milwaukee, and Green Bay v. Detroit. Those winners would face WSU and NKU in the second round, while IUPUI faces UIC and YSU plays Oakland.
Wright State has been the conference's pleasant surprise. Since losing their first three games, the Raiders are 13-2, with only road losses to Southwest Missouri and Western Kentucky. They've got a couple of nice non-conference road wins, over Georgia Tech and Toledo. More importantly, in conference play they've already pocketed road wins over preseason favorites Oakland and Northern Kentucky, plus a home win over UIC, which was both predicted to finish third and is currently sitting in third. The Raiders host Youngstown on Monday, and then swing through Wisconsin at the end of the week. If they survive that trip still in first, they'll be very hard to stop: their next five games are at home.
The Northern Kentucky/Wright State game was a good game, a barnburner played before a good-sized crowd at BBT Arena. With a road win at Oakland and a home win over UIC, the Norse should feel pretty good, even if the WSU game was a missed opportunity. UIC has been one of the more disappointing teams in the conference, starting off the season just 3-6, including a 24 point loss to Loyola, 21 to Troy, 16 to Fort Wayne and 10 to DePaul. But, now more or less under the radar, they've slowly been coming around. They won two of their final 4 non-con games, with close losses at Illinois State and Northern Illinois. And since a 35 point shellacking at NKU to end 2017, they've won 3 straight, a road game at IUPUI and double-digit wins over the Wisconsin teams in Chicago. That leaves Oakland as the big disappointment. After an OK but disappointing non-confernce season, the Grizzlies started conference play 1-3, losing at home to both NKU and Wright State. How does a team have the top three scorers in the league and start off 3-3? But don't count them out. They've evened their record with 13 point wins over CSU and YSU, and they still have that talented roster that got them projected for first in the pre-season. Frankly, the next 4 games probably determine their fate. It's a tough run, on the road against the league's top three teams in the standings--WSU, NKU, and UIC, with a game mixed in at arch-rival Detroit. If they win all four, they'll prove they mean to represent the Horizon come NCAA time, although they'll still need some help to finish in the top 2 in the league. But it's very possible they could lose two, three, or even all four, which would consign them to the middle of the pack and take away whatever preseason buzz remains.
In the bottom half of the league, IUPUI has won 3 of 4, and is showing better than most thought they would. They host Detroit, winners of 2 straight, on Wednesday, but then hit the road for 5 straight games. Both they and the Titans badly need that Wednesday game if they hope to make any noise in the Horizon. Youngstown actually sits tied for 3rd right now after a road win at CSU and a sweep of the Wisconsin schools at the Beagly, but they've lost two straight and I expect they'll continue to fade. However, Cameron Morse, who had a terrible non-conference season, seems to be coming around, averaging almost 21 points and over 5 assists in conference play, while shooting 49.4% overall and 50% from three. This was after shooting just 25% from three in non-conference play, including 21% over the final 6 non-con games. Anyway, with Morse back in form YSU will always be dangerous and with that fast start ought to claim enough wins for a middle of the pack finish.
Green Bay has lost 5 straight but 4 of those were on the road, and the Phoenix start a 5 game home stand on Monday, so they could soon climb in the standings. Milwaukee remains an enigma, with two of the Horizon's best non-conference wins (over Iowa State and Loyola), and some bad defeats (Concordia!). But the Panthers remain a pretty good bet to finish in the top half of the league. Only a 1 point loss at IUPUI separates them from .500. They'll play their 5th consecutive road game at Green Bay on Monday, but then get 6 straight at home, so they, too, could make a little run. Cleveland State is, as predicted, an ash heap, and 5 of their 8 rotation players are seniors.
From an RPI standpoint, the league ranks a pathetic 27th of 32 in conference RPI, and that's probably about where we'll finish. Wright State has a nice 61 RPI, which would probably get them at least to the 13 seed line and maybe 12, but it's doubtful they can hold it. They've already played road games against Oakland and NKU, the only other HL teams with RPIs better than 200, and their RPI is sure to dwindle throughout the rest of the conference season. To keep their RPI in the 50-65 range, they've pretty much got to run the table, and draw (and beat) both OU and NKU in the league tournament. That's a pretty tough order. OTOH, RPI Forecasts only has one more game--vs. Northern Kentucky--in which WSU is currently projected to lose.
Of course, a second bid--which I had thought possible before the season started, if NKU and especially Oakland played really well only to lose in the tournament, is long gone. The conference will be very lucky to get any team to the NIT unless the regular season champ loses in the league tournament to snare one of the NIT's atrocious automatic bids. And it's quite possible that the league will have no more than 3 teams finish above .500 overall. How sad is that?
As for individual players, here's a little fun competition: who will win the most Player of the Week Awards, Oakland, or the rest of the field? Currently, Oakland leads 5-4, with Jalen Hayes and Kendrick Nunn having won twice, and Martez Walker once. You can also play on the freshman of the week award, where Wright State has 5 (3 for Loudon Love, 2 for Ev Winchester) to the rest of the league's 4.
Not giving it much thought, my conference teams at this point would probably be:
First Team:
Kendrick Nunn, OU
Jalen Hayes, OU
Drew McDonald, NKU
Kam Chatman, Detroit
Lavone Holland, NKU
Second Team:
Carson Williams, NKU
Martez Walker, OU
Grant Benzinger, WSU
Loudon Love, WSU
Khalil Small, Green Bay
All-Freshman:
Loudon Love, Wright State
Jermaine Jackson, Detroit
Everett Winchester, Wright State
Naz Bohanon, Youngstown
Tyree Appleby, Cleveland State
POY: Nunn
FOY: Love
Overall things look pretty grim for the league. You can quibble with my all-conference selections, but 6 of those 10 graduate. 10 of the top 20 (and 4 of the top 5) scorers at this point will graduate, as will 9 of the top 20 rebounders and 7 of the top 20 assists men (and 4 of the top 5). But that's getting ahead of the game.
It looks to me that when all is said and done, the top 4 seeds for Motor City Madness will be (not in order) Oakland, NKU, UIC, and Wright State. Except for WSU, predicted for 5th in the preseason, that's what the Horizon Preseason Poll projected. Of course, WSU looks a good bet to finish with a top 2 seed as well, but otherwise, for all the apparent chaos, it looks like things are slowly merging to form.
Here would be the Motor City Madness seedings based on today's standings:
1. Wright State 5-0
2. Northern Kentucky 4-1
3. UIC 3-2
4. Youngstown State 3-2
5. Oakland 3-3
6. IUPUI 3-3
7. Milwaukee 2-4
8. Detroit 2-4
9. Green Bay 2-5
10. Cleveland State 1-4
That would leave first round games with CSU v. Milwaukee, and Green Bay v. Detroit. Those winners would face WSU and NKU in the second round, while IUPUI faces UIC and YSU plays Oakland.
Wright State has been the conference's pleasant surprise. Since losing their first three games, the Raiders are 13-2, with only road losses to Southwest Missouri and Western Kentucky. They've got a couple of nice non-conference road wins, over Georgia Tech and Toledo. More importantly, in conference play they've already pocketed road wins over preseason favorites Oakland and Northern Kentucky, plus a home win over UIC, which was both predicted to finish third and is currently sitting in third. The Raiders host Youngstown on Monday, and then swing through Wisconsin at the end of the week. If they survive that trip still in first, they'll be very hard to stop: their next five games are at home.
The Northern Kentucky/Wright State game was a good game, a barnburner played before a good-sized crowd at BBT Arena. With a road win at Oakland and a home win over UIC, the Norse should feel pretty good, even if the WSU game was a missed opportunity. UIC has been one of the more disappointing teams in the conference, starting off the season just 3-6, including a 24 point loss to Loyola, 21 to Troy, 16 to Fort Wayne and 10 to DePaul. But, now more or less under the radar, they've slowly been coming around. They won two of their final 4 non-con games, with close losses at Illinois State and Northern Illinois. And since a 35 point shellacking at NKU to end 2017, they've won 3 straight, a road game at IUPUI and double-digit wins over the Wisconsin teams in Chicago. That leaves Oakland as the big disappointment. After an OK but disappointing non-confernce season, the Grizzlies started conference play 1-3, losing at home to both NKU and Wright State. How does a team have the top three scorers in the league and start off 3-3? But don't count them out. They've evened their record with 13 point wins over CSU and YSU, and they still have that talented roster that got them projected for first in the pre-season. Frankly, the next 4 games probably determine their fate. It's a tough run, on the road against the league's top three teams in the standings--WSU, NKU, and UIC, with a game mixed in at arch-rival Detroit. If they win all four, they'll prove they mean to represent the Horizon come NCAA time, although they'll still need some help to finish in the top 2 in the league. But it's very possible they could lose two, three, or even all four, which would consign them to the middle of the pack and take away whatever preseason buzz remains.
In the bottom half of the league, IUPUI has won 3 of 4, and is showing better than most thought they would. They host Detroit, winners of 2 straight, on Wednesday, but then hit the road for 5 straight games. Both they and the Titans badly need that Wednesday game if they hope to make any noise in the Horizon. Youngstown actually sits tied for 3rd right now after a road win at CSU and a sweep of the Wisconsin schools at the Beagly, but they've lost two straight and I expect they'll continue to fade. However, Cameron Morse, who had a terrible non-conference season, seems to be coming around, averaging almost 21 points and over 5 assists in conference play, while shooting 49.4% overall and 50% from three. This was after shooting just 25% from three in non-conference play, including 21% over the final 6 non-con games. Anyway, with Morse back in form YSU will always be dangerous and with that fast start ought to claim enough wins for a middle of the pack finish.
Green Bay has lost 5 straight but 4 of those were on the road, and the Phoenix start a 5 game home stand on Monday, so they could soon climb in the standings. Milwaukee remains an enigma, with two of the Horizon's best non-conference wins (over Iowa State and Loyola), and some bad defeats (Concordia!). But the Panthers remain a pretty good bet to finish in the top half of the league. Only a 1 point loss at IUPUI separates them from .500. They'll play their 5th consecutive road game at Green Bay on Monday, but then get 6 straight at home, so they, too, could make a little run. Cleveland State is, as predicted, an ash heap, and 5 of their 8 rotation players are seniors.
From an RPI standpoint, the league ranks a pathetic 27th of 32 in conference RPI, and that's probably about where we'll finish. Wright State has a nice 61 RPI, which would probably get them at least to the 13 seed line and maybe 12, but it's doubtful they can hold it. They've already played road games against Oakland and NKU, the only other HL teams with RPIs better than 200, and their RPI is sure to dwindle throughout the rest of the conference season. To keep their RPI in the 50-65 range, they've pretty much got to run the table, and draw (and beat) both OU and NKU in the league tournament. That's a pretty tough order. OTOH, RPI Forecasts only has one more game--vs. Northern Kentucky--in which WSU is currently projected to lose.
Of course, a second bid--which I had thought possible before the season started, if NKU and especially Oakland played really well only to lose in the tournament, is long gone. The conference will be very lucky to get any team to the NIT unless the regular season champ loses in the league tournament to snare one of the NIT's atrocious automatic bids. And it's quite possible that the league will have no more than 3 teams finish above .500 overall. How sad is that?
As for individual players, here's a little fun competition: who will win the most Player of the Week Awards, Oakland, or the rest of the field? Currently, Oakland leads 5-4, with Jalen Hayes and Kendrick Nunn having won twice, and Martez Walker once. You can also play on the freshman of the week award, where Wright State has 5 (3 for Loudon Love, 2 for Ev Winchester) to the rest of the league's 4.
Not giving it much thought, my conference teams at this point would probably be:
First Team:
Kendrick Nunn, OU
Jalen Hayes, OU
Drew McDonald, NKU
Kam Chatman, Detroit
Lavone Holland, NKU
Second Team:
Carson Williams, NKU
Martez Walker, OU
Grant Benzinger, WSU
Loudon Love, WSU
Khalil Small, Green Bay
All-Freshman:
Loudon Love, Wright State
Jermaine Jackson, Detroit
Everett Winchester, Wright State
Naz Bohanon, Youngstown
Tyree Appleby, Cleveland State
POY: Nunn
FOY: Love
Overall things look pretty grim for the league. You can quibble with my all-conference selections, but 6 of those 10 graduate. 10 of the top 20 (and 4 of the top 5) scorers at this point will graduate, as will 9 of the top 20 rebounders and 7 of the top 20 assists men (and 4 of the top 5). But that's getting ahead of the game.
It looks to me that when all is said and done, the top 4 seeds for Motor City Madness will be (not in order) Oakland, NKU, UIC, and Wright State. Except for WSU, predicted for 5th in the preseason, that's what the Horizon Preseason Poll projected. Of course, WSU looks a good bet to finish with a top 2 seed as well, but otherwise, for all the apparent chaos, it looks like things are slowly merging to form.