Post by Commissioner on Dec 24, 2018 16:52:48 GMT -5
So the non-conference season is over. Some thoughts: first on the League as a whole.
Conference Ranking
The Horizon ranks 18th in both the old RPI formula and the new NET. I don't know exactly how NET works, but I'm pretty confident that we'll drop in RPI as the season goes on. The reason is that only two Horizon teams--Northern Kentucky and IUPUI--have winning non-conference records. The main factor in RPI is your opponents' W-L record. From here on out, every single Horizon team will play teams with a losing overall record. Right now the conference ranks ahead of several conferences with lower W/L records (specifically, the Colonial, Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley, Patriot, and Big West), and those conferences will gain on the Horizon. The only thing that can save the HL under the old RPI is our non-conference opponents winning big in conference play. So far they've tended, as a group, to do well, which is why the HL RPI is not in the twenties. But I don't know if that will continue. Northern Kentucky has the top RPI at 107, but they're probably doomed to sink the most, both because they won't play themselves in league play, and they played a creampuff non-con schedule--they're floating as high as they are mainly on their own W/L record. The Conference is 19th in NET. We are also 19th in both Sagarin and KenPom.
Here are the rankings for the league teams, using NET, RPI, Sagarin, and Ken Pom, and an average ranking for those 4 systems (as of 12/24).
Conference Attendance
Attendance always picks up in conference play, but it's not good. As I noted in another thread, just 4 years ago the lowest non-conference home game attendance was 1014 for Goshen at Valparaiso. Three years ago the worst attended game was 1107 for Cedarville at Cleveland State. This year there have been 9 non-conference games draw less than 1000. The highest attendance this year was 4095 for Miami of Ohio at Wright State. Four years ago, there were 8 non-conference home games that topped 4100 in attendance, topped by over 10,000 for Wisconsin at Milwaukee. Three years ago, 5 games topped 4100 in attendance, led by St. Mary's at Valpo with 5444. Now Wisconsin won't play Milwaukee on the road, period. Meanwhile, this year UIC drew a respectable 3539 for cross-town rival rival Loyola, coming off a Final Four appearance. But 4 years ago, UIC drew a crowd of 5449 for a much less impressive Loyola team. (Four years ago Miami at Wright State drew 3752. Three years ago UIC drew 4199 for Illinois State. This year they drew 2197.
Here are the average home attendances so far, with percentage increase/decrease from 3 years ago:
1. Wright State, 3354 (- 2.9%)
2. No. Kentucky, 2906 (+36.1%)
3. Oakland, 2358 (-9.7%)
4. Youngstown, 2049 (+47.5%)
5. Ill-Chicago, 1959 (-41.3%)
6. Green Bay, 1551 (-33.7%)
7. Detroit, 1384 (-12.8%)
8. IUPUI, 1346 (-55.9% vs. Valparaiso)
9. Milwaukee, 1255 (-33.9%
10. Cleveland St.,1112 (-46.0%)
Note that 3 years ago, Youngstown had the worst non-conference attendance in the league at 1389. This year, 4 teams are worse than that.
Best Wins based on NET, including home/away difference
1. Green Bay 100, #40 Belmont 92
2. IUPUI 76, @ #102 Boston College 69.
3. Wright State 84, #66 Toledo 74
4. Northern Kentucky 72, #153 Miami (Oh). 66
5. Northern Kentucky 88, @ #165 Northern Illinois 85 (OT)
6. Milwaukee 69, @ #226 UMKC 66
7. Northern Kentucky 93, @ #235 Morehead State 71
8. Northern Kentucky 65, #165 Northern Illinois 62
8. Green Bay 85, #165 Northern Illinois 83
10. IUPUI 85, #190 Bradley 73
10. UIC 71, #190 Bradley 70
Note that the NCAA now divides wins into 4 categories, based on the opposing team's NET and whether the game was home, neutral, or away. For the entire Horizon League we had 0 wins in group 1, 3 against Group 2, and just 7 wins total against groups 1 through 3.
Conference Ranking
The Horizon ranks 18th in both the old RPI formula and the new NET. I don't know exactly how NET works, but I'm pretty confident that we'll drop in RPI as the season goes on. The reason is that only two Horizon teams--Northern Kentucky and IUPUI--have winning non-conference records. The main factor in RPI is your opponents' W-L record. From here on out, every single Horizon team will play teams with a losing overall record. Right now the conference ranks ahead of several conferences with lower W/L records (specifically, the Colonial, Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley, Patriot, and Big West), and those conferences will gain on the Horizon. The only thing that can save the HL under the old RPI is our non-conference opponents winning big in conference play. So far they've tended, as a group, to do well, which is why the HL RPI is not in the twenties. But I don't know if that will continue. Northern Kentucky has the top RPI at 107, but they're probably doomed to sink the most, both because they won't play themselves in league play, and they played a creampuff non-con schedule--they're floating as high as they are mainly on their own W/L record. The Conference is 19th in NET. We are also 19th in both Sagarin and KenPom.
Here are the rankings for the league teams, using NET, RPI, Sagarin, and Ken Pom, and an average ranking for those 4 systems (as of 12/24).
Team | AVG. | NET | RPI | Sagarin | Ken Pom |
1. Northern Kentucky | 126 | 143 | 107 | 122 | 132 |
2. Wright State | 152 | 141 | 190 | 140 | 137 |
3. Green Bay | 174 | 172 | 143 | 182 | 199 |
4. IUPUI | 176 | 167 | 161 | 180 | 197 |
5. UIC | 196 | 182 | 207 | 196 | 198 |
6. Cleveland State | 216 | 186 | 225 | 220 | 233 |
7. Detroit | 242 | 227 | 205 | 264 | 272 |
8. Oakland | 252 | 276 | 279 | 214 | 239 |
9. Milwaukee | 262 | 281 | 245 | 257 | 266 |
10. Youngstown State | 305 | 310 | 280 | 310 | 321 |
Conference Attendance
Attendance always picks up in conference play, but it's not good. As I noted in another thread, just 4 years ago the lowest non-conference home game attendance was 1014 for Goshen at Valparaiso. Three years ago the worst attended game was 1107 for Cedarville at Cleveland State. This year there have been 9 non-conference games draw less than 1000. The highest attendance this year was 4095 for Miami of Ohio at Wright State. Four years ago, there were 8 non-conference home games that topped 4100 in attendance, topped by over 10,000 for Wisconsin at Milwaukee. Three years ago, 5 games topped 4100 in attendance, led by St. Mary's at Valpo with 5444. Now Wisconsin won't play Milwaukee on the road, period. Meanwhile, this year UIC drew a respectable 3539 for cross-town rival rival Loyola, coming off a Final Four appearance. But 4 years ago, UIC drew a crowd of 5449 for a much less impressive Loyola team. (Four years ago Miami at Wright State drew 3752. Three years ago UIC drew 4199 for Illinois State. This year they drew 2197.
Here are the average home attendances so far, with percentage increase/decrease from 3 years ago:
1. Wright State, 3354 (- 2.9%)
2. No. Kentucky, 2906 (+36.1%)
3. Oakland, 2358 (-9.7%)
4. Youngstown, 2049 (+47.5%)
5. Ill-Chicago, 1959 (-41.3%)
6. Green Bay, 1551 (-33.7%)
7. Detroit, 1384 (-12.8%)
8. IUPUI, 1346 (-55.9% vs. Valparaiso)
9. Milwaukee, 1255 (-33.9%
10. Cleveland St.,1112 (-46.0%)
Note that 3 years ago, Youngstown had the worst non-conference attendance in the league at 1389. This year, 4 teams are worse than that.
Best Wins based on NET, including home/away difference
1. Green Bay 100, #40 Belmont 92
2. IUPUI 76, @ #102 Boston College 69.
3. Wright State 84, #66 Toledo 74
4. Northern Kentucky 72, #153 Miami (Oh). 66
5. Northern Kentucky 88, @ #165 Northern Illinois 85 (OT)
6. Milwaukee 69, @ #226 UMKC 66
7. Northern Kentucky 93, @ #235 Morehead State 71
8. Northern Kentucky 65, #165 Northern Illinois 62
8. Green Bay 85, #165 Northern Illinois 83
10. IUPUI 85, #190 Bradley 73
10. UIC 71, #190 Bradley 70
Note that the NCAA now divides wins into 4 categories, based on the opposing team's NET and whether the game was home, neutral, or away. For the entire Horizon League we had 0 wins in group 1, 3 against Group 2, and just 7 wins total against groups 1 through 3.