Post by Commissioner on Feb 21, 2019 9:23:37 GMT -5
These are the rankings by conference NET, the NCAA's new chief measurement:
1. Big 12
2. Big 10
3. SEC
4. ACC
5. Big East
Nothing out of the ordinary so far, although I'm sure a lot of people are surprised to see the ACC--with Duke, Virginia, and UNC all looking like #1 or #2 seeds--down in 4th, and the SEC up in third. But the top three conferences clearly have more depth than the ACC this year.
6. American
7. PAC 12
8. MAC
9. WCC
10. Atlantic 10
No surprise that the PAC is at the bottom of what are usually regarded as the top 7 conferences--the surprise is that they're not behind a few of what start to be called the mid-majors. And check out #8--the MAC! They're getting a lift from Buffalo, but Toledo and Bowling Green are also in the top 100 and only Western Michigan and Ohio are not in the top half of teams. They have no teams in the bottom fourth. The Atlantic 10, despite a down year and some high profile non-conference losses, has held up reasonably well.
11. Ivy
12. Southern
13. Conference USA
14. Missouri Valley
15. Mountain West
The Ivy at 11? The Southern at 12? Only Dartmouth and Columbia are below .500 in the Ivy. The top 4 in the Southern Conference--Wofford (#25), Furman (#42), UNC-Greensboro (#56), and East Tennessee State (#71) are probably better than the top 4 in the PAC 12, Atlantic 10, or WCC (Gonzaga not withstanding). The Conference still has some dogs at the bottom--The Citadel, VMI, Western Carolina and Chattanooga are all in the bottom 100--but the Southern is hoping that it may get its first at-large bid in the modern era. Wofford would be the best possibility, but Furman, with wins at Villanova and Loyola and its only non-conference loss at LSU, can't be ruled out.
The Mountain West would desperately like two bids, but absent Nevada losing in their tournament, that leaves it up to Utah State. But fully 13 of the Aggies 21 wins come from the bottom quadrant of the NET system, and their best non-conference win is over St. Mary's on a neutral court. The Valley is very competitive--its teams are in a relatively narrow band from Loyola (#125) to Indiana State (#204). It's also interesting to see CUSA clawing its way back into the top half of conferences after being decimated by defections a few years back.
16. WAC
17. Sun Belt
18. Colonial
19. Horizon
20. Patriot
The WAC almost folded a few years back, and now consists of New Mexico State, a bunch of newbies including Cal Baptist, Bakersfield, Utah Valley, and Grand Canyon, perennial downtrodden UTRGV, UMKC, and Chicago State, and the long fallen power Seattle. Yet it's doing OK. Bakersfield won 49 games in the 2016/17 seasons, and may get back to 20 wins this year. Grand Canyon has three straight 20 seasons (that will probably end this year, as they are 15-10) under Dan Majerle; Cal Baptist has had a surprisingly solid debut season.
The Colonial is a bit like the Horizon. It's been badly poached on, and slid from a conference knocking on the door of the top 10 to one clinging to the top 20. And speaking of that, I'm just glad the HL is back in the top 20. The HL has by far the worst non-conference winning percentage of any of the top 20 conferences, and may be overscheduling.
21. Big West
22. Atlantic Sun
23. Ohio Valley
24. Big South
25. Summit
The Summit falls back after a couple of strong seasons. The Ohio Valley has a couple of top 75 teams (#56 Belmont, #61 Murray State) plus solid teams at Austin Peay (#124) and Jacksonville State (#127-- is Jacksonville really in the Ohio River Valley?), but a bunch of stinkers. It's next ranked team after those 4 is #266 Morehead State, and it has 6 teams below 300. In the Atlantic Sun, Lipscomb has a #38 NET ranking and had gotten itself into the at-large discussion pool if they don't win tournament, but a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast took them out of that conversation, and indeed out of 1st place in the conference, now held by UCLA conqueror Liberty (#54). The Conference deteriorates quickly after those two.
26. America East
27. Big Sky
28. MAAC
29. Northeast
30. Southland
31. SWAC
32. MEAC
The American East has Vermont (#67) and not much else. Stony Brook has a flashy 21-5 record but just a 152 NET ranking. No other team in these bottom 7 conferences has a top 100 ranking. The MAAC is especially down this year, but at least it makes for a fun conference race, with 6 teams crowded within a half game of first. St. Francis and St. Francis sit 1-2 in the Northeast, where the top NET team (3rd place Farleigh Dickinson) is ranked #232. Newbie Abilene Christian has a 21-5 record and a #160 rank in the Southland, but has beaten just 2 teams with winning records (New Orleans and Campbell). The SWAC and MEAC teams simply don't have the resources to compete and are almost always among the bottom 4 conferences if not, like this year, the bottom two.
1. Big 12
2. Big 10
3. SEC
4. ACC
5. Big East
Nothing out of the ordinary so far, although I'm sure a lot of people are surprised to see the ACC--with Duke, Virginia, and UNC all looking like #1 or #2 seeds--down in 4th, and the SEC up in third. But the top three conferences clearly have more depth than the ACC this year.
6. American
7. PAC 12
8. MAC
9. WCC
10. Atlantic 10
No surprise that the PAC is at the bottom of what are usually regarded as the top 7 conferences--the surprise is that they're not behind a few of what start to be called the mid-majors. And check out #8--the MAC! They're getting a lift from Buffalo, but Toledo and Bowling Green are also in the top 100 and only Western Michigan and Ohio are not in the top half of teams. They have no teams in the bottom fourth. The Atlantic 10, despite a down year and some high profile non-conference losses, has held up reasonably well.
11. Ivy
12. Southern
13. Conference USA
14. Missouri Valley
15. Mountain West
The Ivy at 11? The Southern at 12? Only Dartmouth and Columbia are below .500 in the Ivy. The top 4 in the Southern Conference--Wofford (#25), Furman (#42), UNC-Greensboro (#56), and East Tennessee State (#71) are probably better than the top 4 in the PAC 12, Atlantic 10, or WCC (Gonzaga not withstanding). The Conference still has some dogs at the bottom--The Citadel, VMI, Western Carolina and Chattanooga are all in the bottom 100--but the Southern is hoping that it may get its first at-large bid in the modern era. Wofford would be the best possibility, but Furman, with wins at Villanova and Loyola and its only non-conference loss at LSU, can't be ruled out.
The Mountain West would desperately like two bids, but absent Nevada losing in their tournament, that leaves it up to Utah State. But fully 13 of the Aggies 21 wins come from the bottom quadrant of the NET system, and their best non-conference win is over St. Mary's on a neutral court. The Valley is very competitive--its teams are in a relatively narrow band from Loyola (#125) to Indiana State (#204). It's also interesting to see CUSA clawing its way back into the top half of conferences after being decimated by defections a few years back.
16. WAC
17. Sun Belt
18. Colonial
19. Horizon
20. Patriot
The WAC almost folded a few years back, and now consists of New Mexico State, a bunch of newbies including Cal Baptist, Bakersfield, Utah Valley, and Grand Canyon, perennial downtrodden UTRGV, UMKC, and Chicago State, and the long fallen power Seattle. Yet it's doing OK. Bakersfield won 49 games in the 2016/17 seasons, and may get back to 20 wins this year. Grand Canyon has three straight 20 seasons (that will probably end this year, as they are 15-10) under Dan Majerle; Cal Baptist has had a surprisingly solid debut season.
The Colonial is a bit like the Horizon. It's been badly poached on, and slid from a conference knocking on the door of the top 10 to one clinging to the top 20. And speaking of that, I'm just glad the HL is back in the top 20. The HL has by far the worst non-conference winning percentage of any of the top 20 conferences, and may be overscheduling.
21. Big West
22. Atlantic Sun
23. Ohio Valley
24. Big South
25. Summit
The Summit falls back after a couple of strong seasons. The Ohio Valley has a couple of top 75 teams (#56 Belmont, #61 Murray State) plus solid teams at Austin Peay (#124) and Jacksonville State (#127-- is Jacksonville really in the Ohio River Valley?), but a bunch of stinkers. It's next ranked team after those 4 is #266 Morehead State, and it has 6 teams below 300. In the Atlantic Sun, Lipscomb has a #38 NET ranking and had gotten itself into the at-large discussion pool if they don't win tournament, but a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast took them out of that conversation, and indeed out of 1st place in the conference, now held by UCLA conqueror Liberty (#54). The Conference deteriorates quickly after those two.
26. America East
27. Big Sky
28. MAAC
29. Northeast
30. Southland
31. SWAC
32. MEAC
The American East has Vermont (#67) and not much else. Stony Brook has a flashy 21-5 record but just a 152 NET ranking. No other team in these bottom 7 conferences has a top 100 ranking. The MAAC is especially down this year, but at least it makes for a fun conference race, with 6 teams crowded within a half game of first. St. Francis and St. Francis sit 1-2 in the Northeast, where the top NET team (3rd place Farleigh Dickinson) is ranked #232. Newbie Abilene Christian has a 21-5 record and a #160 rank in the Southland, but has beaten just 2 teams with winning records (New Orleans and Campbell). The SWAC and MEAC teams simply don't have the resources to compete and are almost always among the bottom 4 conferences if not, like this year, the bottom two.