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Post by Commissioner on Jan 25, 2021 13:22:03 GMT -5
We could use some betting pools.
Will there be an NCAA tournament?
Will there be a Horizon tournament?
If there is a Horizon tournament this year, I'm guess 1st 4 get byes, last 8 play. Then field of remaining 8 play at homes of top 4, and top 4 go to Indy.
But this year, how do you pick the top 4?
Right now, the seedings would be the same whether by W-L (i.e. games over .500) or Winning Pct. Note, though, that that may not be the case at the end of the year due to different numbers of games played. For example, in the Missouri Valley now, Loyola is the most games over .500 at 7-1, but Drake has a higher winning percentage at 4-0.
Here are the current standings by W-L: 1. Cleveland State 10-2 2. Wright State 9-3 3. UIC 5-3 4. Milwaukee 5-4 5. Oakland 5-5 5. Northern Kentucky 6-6 7. Fort Wayne 5-7 7. Green Bay 5-7 9. Detroit 3-5 10. Youngstown 4-8 11. Bob Morris 2-5 12. IUPUI 2-6
One could easily see a team getting (or not getting) a first round bye by a half game, having played more or less than others.
I presume we would seed by conference record, but maybe not. On his radio show, Kampe made some comments suggesting the league might (would?) use a mathematical formula, one that sounds a lot like NET (is NET?--he didn't call it that).
By NET: 1. Wright State 2. Cleveland State 3. Milwaukee 4. Detroit 5. UIC 6. Northern Kentucky 7. Fort Wayne 8. Green Bay 9. Youngstown 10. Oakland 11. Bob Morris 12. IUPUI
I can't imagine they'd use the old RPI, but if they did... 1. Cleveland State 2. Wright State 3. Oakland 4. Milwaukee 5. Youngstown State 6. IUPUI 7. UIC 8. Northern Kentucky 9. Fort Wayne 10. Robert Morris 11. Green Bay 12. Detroit
Generally, as of today the Titans would like a computer ranking, NET or something similar. For example, there's KenPom 1. Wright State 2. Cleveland State 3. Detroit 4. Milwaukee 5. UIC 6. Northern Kentucky 7. Fort Wayne 8. Oakland 9. Green Bay 10. Youngstown State 11. Robert Morris 12. IUPUI
Sagarin: 1. Wright State 2. Cleveland State 3. Northern Kentucky 4. UIC 5. Detroit 6. Milwaukee 7. Green Bay 8. Youngstown 9. Robert Morris 10. Oakland 11. Fort Wayne 12. IUPUI
Breaking ties could get interesting, too. Normally, the HL relies on head-to-head competition, and if the teams split during the season, then the team with the best win (i.e. a win over the highest placed team in the standings) gets the nod. But if you played your opponent two on the road, and split, should you maybe win the tie-breaker? Suppose the Titans tie with a team that beat UIC, and that gets them the tie-breaker nod because we never played UIC?
Should be fun!
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Post by Rogobob77 on Jan 28, 2021 11:00:51 GMT -5
Heard that the Horizon League will be releasing the MBB tournament bracket later today. All 12 teams will participate. As part of the release, there will be information on the formula for determining seeds taking into account a number of factors including the likely differences in conference games played.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2021 11:05:08 GMT -5
Heard that the Horizon League will be releasing the MBB tournament bracket later today. All 12 teams will participate. As part of the release, there will be information on the formula for determining seeds taking into account a number of factors including the likely differences in conference games played. Some selected quotes: The men’s and women’s brackets, as approved by the Horizon League Council, will feature the top-four teams in the regular season earning a bye to the quarterfinals and a home game on Tuesday, March 2 with the winners advancing to the semifinals on March 8 at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum. For the men’s bracket, the first round will feature the teams placing fifth through 12th competing on campus at the highest-available seeds on Thursday, Feb. 25. Dates, times and brackets are subject to change. Each round of the championship will re-seed with the highest-remaining seed matching up against the lowest-remaining seed until the championship games. Every game of the tournament will be carried on ESPN networks, with the championships airing live on March 9. Due to the unbalanced nature of the Horizon League schedule because of COVID-19, this season the championship will be seeded utilizing a formula that considers four factors: League winning percentage, strength of schedule, weighting road wins vs. home wins and number of League games played. The HL will provide weekly updates on seeding after each weekend’s games and will announce the final seeding for the championship after the end of the regular season on Saturday, Feb. 20. horizonleague.org/documents/2021/1/20/2021_Men_s_Basketball_Bracket.pdf
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Post by Rogobob77 on Jan 28, 2021 13:20:20 GMT -5
They’ve stretched out the first two rounds of the tournament a bit. Originally there was some discussion that there might be room in the calendar for some league make-up games to be scheduled, but I no longer look for that to happen.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2021 12:37:09 GMT -5
Here's the current seeding using the "special" formula the Horizon League has developed. The formula considers four factors: League winning percentage, strength of schedule, weighting road wins vs. home wins and number of League games played
The formula is not working too well for us
#9 would play #8 in their 1st game & #2 if they win
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 1, 2021 20:14:10 GMT -5
Here's the current seeding using the "special" formula the Horizon League has developed. The formula considers four factors: League winning percentage, strength of schedule, weighting road wins vs. home wins and number of League games played The formula is not working too well for us #9 would play #8 in their 1st game & #2 if they win I have to admit, I'm puzzled by this. We go to Youngstown, beat them twice at their place, and are 3 games ahead of them in the standings, and we're seeded behind them? It is true that YSU could really put on a charge from here--their last 6 are all at home, and against IUPUI, PFW, and Bob Morris. 6-0 isn't at all out of the question. But I'm not really sure how you seed them ahead of us now. We beat Green Bay twice, and are two games ahead of them in the standings, and they're seeded ahead of us? We have 5 conference losses. Two are to Wright State (in 2nd place) and 3 are to Oakland (in third place). There's a lot more problems here, not just involving us, but that'll do to start. For us, though, at least the solution is easy: just win games.
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Post by ptctitan on Feb 2, 2021 6:37:57 GMT -5
I have to admit, I'm puzzled by this. We go to Youngstown, beat them twice at their place, and are 3 games ahead of them in the standings, and we're seeded behind them? It is true that YSU could really put on a charge from here--their last 6 are all at home, and against IUPUI, PFW, and Bob Morris. 6-0 isn't at all out of the question. But I'm not really sure how you seed them ahead of us now. We beat Green Bay twice, and are two games ahead of them in the standings, and they're seeded ahead of us? We have 5 conference losses. Two are to Wright State (in 2nd place) and 3 are to Oakland (in third place). There's a lot more problems here, not just involving us, but that'll do to start. For us, though, at least the solution is easy: just win games. Actually, it tells us a lot about the HL's formula for seeding. Specifically, the number of games played in-conference outweighs the W-L record and road wins. The last four seeded teams have played the fewest number of HL games. We have played 10. UIC and IUPUI have played 10. RMU has played 9. Youngstown State, GB, and PFW have played 14 games. NKU has played 12 games. Milwaukee has played 11 games. The top 3 seeds have played 14 games. So, the current seeding is determined almost entirely by the percentage of 20 games that you've played - not your W-L record, not strength of schedule, and not the number of road wins. Apparently, the league's seeding formula assumes that if a school missed any games due to COVID, it's because the school has not done an acceptable level of COVID mitigation. Therefore, those schools should not be rewarded with seedings commensurate with their performance; e.g., us and UIC. In actuality, it rewards the schools whose teams got COVID in October, November and early December. And it penalizes schools like us, IUPUI and UIC that had COVID in late December or early January. Or schools like us and UIC that had to sit out games due to the HL's own contact tracing protocols that require players be held out even though they test negative because they had been in contact with a positive test in the prior 7-10 days.
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Post by upbasketballfan on Feb 2, 2021 11:46:54 GMT -5
I have to admit, I'm puzzled by this. We go to Youngstown, beat them twice at their place, and are 3 games ahead of them in the standings, and we're seeded behind them? It is true that YSU could really put on a charge from here--their last 6 are all at home, and against IUPUI, PFW, and Bob Morris. 6-0 isn't at all out of the question. But I'm not really sure how you seed them ahead of us now. We beat Green Bay twice, and are two games ahead of them in the standings, and they're seeded ahead of us? We have 5 conference losses. Two are to Wright State (in 2nd place) and 3 are to Oakland (in third place). There's a lot more problems here, not just involving us, but that'll do to start. For us, though, at least the solution is easy: just win games. Actually, it tells us a lot about the HL's formula for seeding. Specifically, the number of games played in-conference outweighs the W-L record and road wins. The last four seeded teams have played the fewest number of HL games. We have played 10. UIC and IUPUI have played 10. RMU has played 9. Youngstown State, GB, and PFW have played 14 games. NKU has played 12 games. Milwaukee has played 11 games. The top 3 seeds have played 14 games. So, the current seeding is determined almost entirely by the percentage of 20 games that you've played - not your W-L record, not strength of schedule, and not the number of road wins. Apparently, the league's seeding formula assumes that if a school missed any games due to COVID, it's because the school has not done an acceptable level of COVID mitigation. Therefore, those schools should not be rewarded with seedings commensurate with their performance; e.g., us and UIC. In actuality, it rewards the schools whose teams got COVID in October, November and early December. And it penalizes schools like us, IUPUI and UIC that had COVID in late December or early January. Or schools like us and UIC that had to sit out games due to the HL's own contact tracing protocols that require players be held out even though they test negative because they had been in contact with a positive test in the prior 7-10 days. Where is the picture of the garbage dumpster when we need it? Horizon League and LeCronnie are garbage and need to be dumped on. Nothing ruins my watching a game on ESPN more than when LeCronne or what ever his name is, gets on and rambles on in his monotone.
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Post by calihanmole on Feb 2, 2021 13:08:26 GMT -5
Just doing my job.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 2, 2021 13:17:38 GMT -5
I have to admit, I'm puzzled by this. We go to Youngstown, beat them twice at their place, and are 3 games ahead of them in the standings, and we're seeded behind them? It is true that YSU could really put on a charge from here--their last 6 are all at home, and against IUPUI, PFW, and Bob Morris. 6-0 isn't at all out of the question. But I'm not really sure how you seed them ahead of us now. We beat Green Bay twice, and are two games ahead of them in the standings, and they're seeded ahead of us? We have 5 conference losses. Two are to Wright State (in 2nd place) and 3 are to Oakland (in third place). There's a lot more problems here, not just involving us, but that'll do to start. For us, though, at least the solution is easy: just win games. Actually, it tells us a lot about the HL's formula for seeding. Specifically, the number of games played in-conference outweighs the W-L record and road wins. The last four seeded teams have played the fewest number of HL games. We have played 10. UIC and IUPUI have played 10. RMU has played 9. Youngstown State, GB, and PFW have played 14 games. NKU has played 12 games. Milwaukee has played 11 games. The top 3 seeds have played 14 games. So, the current seeding is determined almost entirely by the percentage of 20 games that you've played - not your W-L record, not strength of schedule, and not the number of road wins. Apparently, the league's seeding formula assumes that if a school missed any games due to COVID, it's because the school has not done an acceptable level of COVID mitigation. Therefore, those schools should not be rewarded with seedings commensurate with their performance; e.g., us and UIC. In actuality, it rewards the schools whose teams got COVID in October, November and early December. And it penalizes schools like us, IUPUI and UIC that had COVID in late December or early January. Or schools like us and UIC that had to sit out games due to the HL's own contact tracing protocols that require players be held out even though they test negative because they had been in contact with a positive test in the prior 7-10 days. That does look like the criteria. But it still leaves the Milwaukee puzzle. What does their coach have on the seeding committee? They've played just 11 games (so they're the team that's really out of order based on that criteria), and while they do have an OT win over Cleveland State, their other wins are 3 over IUPUI and 2 over Green Bay--teams at the bottom of the league in winning percentage. And they've got a loss to IUPUI, a loss to Robert Morris, and 2 losses to PFW (both on their home court). I'm pretty sure that if we'd played IUPUI 4 times instead of Oakland, PFW instead of Wright State, and added in a game with Robert Morris, we'd be a lot better than 6-5 in Conference. Anyway, it will sort itself out more. The key, again, is we just need to win. I think we can win all 6 remaining games, that 5-1 is very doable, and that worse than 4-2 will really disappoint me.
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Post by ptctitan on Feb 2, 2021 17:14:28 GMT -5
That does look like the criteria. But it still leaves the Milwaukee puzzle. What does their coach have on the seeding committee? They've played just 11 games (so they're the team that's really out of order based on that criteria), and while they do have an OT win over Cleveland State, their other wins are 3 over IUPUI and 2 over Green Bay--teams at the bottom of the league in winning percentage. And they've got a loss to IUPUI, a loss to Robert Morris, and 2 losses to PFW (both on their home court). I'm pretty sure that if we'd played IUPUI 4 times instead of Oakland, PFW instead of Wright State, and added in a game with Robert Morris, we'd be a lot better than 6-5 in Conference. Anyway, it will sort itself out more. The key, again, is we just need to win. I think we can win all 6 remaining games, that 5-1 is very doable, and that worse than 4-2 will really disappoint me. First, I agree with your point that all we need to do is win; and, I think that 6-0 is doable. Cleveland State will be tough in their building. PFW and RMU are no pushovers; and, we have a worse record at home than on the road. But let's focus on this weekend and take care of PFW first before we start thinking of the others. Second, there could be a minimum criteria of playing 75% of the total games originally scheduled. That could explain Milwaukee getting a regular seed and us and UIC not getting a normal seed. If that's the case and we play this weekend, then we will have played 12 of 16 scheduled games and meet that threshold.
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Post by udballer on Feb 2, 2021 18:16:56 GMT -5
Agree that anything less than 4-2 would be disappointing. I could let a loss slide here and there but Im tired of looking for reasons we could lose. If we are on a path to becoming a good Horizon team, we should expect no less than 4-2. Realistically, 5-1 or 6-0 is entirely do-able. Good teams don't fear Cleveland State.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 7, 2021 9:03:27 GMT -5
My best guess is tomorrow's Horizon tournament seeding will have the Titans 5th.
It will be CSU at #1, WSU at #2, and Oakland and NKU at 3/4, in either order. NKU is ahead of us by a game in the standings. They've played a very weak conference schedule, but with more conference games played than us plus their 3rd place position in the current standings, they'll be put ahead of us. And OU, though a game behind us in the standings, has played more games than we have, and took 3 of 4 against us. They've also played a tougher conference schedule.
I can't imagine that any seeding system that wants to be taken seriously would put anyone else ahead of our Titans. We've actually played a relatively weak conference schedule, but we're 1.5 games up on Milwaukee and 2 up on UIC, the next two teams behind us. Milwaukee has played fewer conference games than we have. They have a win over CSU, but their other 5 conference wins are over IUPUI (3x) and Green Bay (2x), two of the weakest teams in the conference, and Milwaukee has losses to the bottom three teams in the standings: Robert Morris, Fort Wayne (2x), and IUPUI. UIC, meanwhile, has played the same number of games as us, but has played the weakest schedule in the conference. The Flames beat Oakland twice, but their other wins are two over Bob Morris and one over YSU. They lost twice to Fort Wayne, which should offset their wins over OU, and split with YSU.
After those two come YSU and Green Bay, each of which is a full 3 games behind us in the standings, and both of whom we beat twice, YSU on the road. IUPUI and Bob Morris are well behind us in the standings and have each played fewer conference games, and Fort Wayne is 4 games behind us and we just swept them.
Anyway, the bottom line is for us to keep winning, and the seeding and 1st round bye will take care of itself. I'd be reasonably satisfied to come out of Cleveland with at least a split, but the way we're playing now I think a sweep is very possible and is certainly the goal. OTOH, CSU is good enough to sweep us. We'll be the underdogs.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 7, 2021 14:19:13 GMT -5
Remaining Schedule:
CSU 14-2: Detroit; @ Fort Wayne WSU 13-3: Milwaukee; @ Northern Kentucky NKU 9-5: @ Green Bay; Wright State Detroit 7-5: @ Cleveland State; Robert Morris Oakland 8-8: @ Robert Morris; @ Milwaukee Milwaukee 6-7: @ Wright State; Oakland UIC 5-7: @ IUPUI; Green Bay YSU 6-10: Fort Wayne; IUPUI Green Bay 6-10: NKU; @ UIC IUPUI 4-8: UIC; @ YSU Fort Wayne 5-11: @ YSU; Cleveland State Robert Morris 2-9: Oakland; @ Detroit
My (relatively optimistic for Titans) prediction is probably 1. CSU 17-3 2. WSU 16-4 3. Detroit 10-6 4. NKU 11-7 5. Oakland 11-9 6. YSU 10-10 7. UIC 7-9 8. Milwaukee 7-10 9. Green Bay 8-12 10. IUPUI 5-11 11. Fort Wayne 5-15 12. Robert Morris 2-13
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Post by ptctitan on Feb 8, 2021 12:27:41 GMT -5
Never underestimate the ability of the HL to screw up seedings. C'mon Titans! Just go out and win the 4 remaining games so we can see how screwed up the formula really is.
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