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Post by Commissioner on Oct 3, 2013 23:54:57 GMT -5
ESPN: 1. Wright State 2. Green Bay 3. Cleveland State 4. Detroit 5. Youngstown State 6. Oakland 7. Valparaiso 8. UIC 9. Milwaukee
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 3, 2013 23:59:10 GMT -5
Updated Composite:
Assigning 9 points for 1st, 8 for 2nd, and so on, a composite of the 8 rankings out (TSN, Lindy's, Big Apple Buckets, USA Tdy, Daly Dose, Athlon, Blue Ribbon, ESPN) would be:
1. Wright State 68 2. Green Bay 59 3. Cleveland State 49 4. Oakland 48.5 5. Youngstown State 38.5 6. Valparaiso 35.5 7. Detroit 28.5 8. UIC 25 9. Milwaukee 8
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 4, 2013 16:32:00 GMT -5
Paul Oren, the beat writer for Valpo, publishes the ballot he submits for the Horizon League media pre-season predictions: 1. Green Bay 2. Wright State 3. Cleveland State. 4. Youngstown State 5. Valpo 6. Oakland 7. Detroit 8. UIC 9. Milwaukee
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 4, 2013 16:37:32 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 5, 2013 7:47:47 GMT -5
Analysis for
Youngstown State 2013: 7-9 Horizon (T 5th), 18-16 overall, CIT.
Youngstown State is always something of an afterthought in discussions about Horizon league ball. It’s a football school first with a grand I-AA football tradition but no history of basketball success, and it’s out on the league’s easternmost frontier in one of its smaller media markets.
For the last eight years coach Jerry Slocum has struggled to find wins and fans for this nondescript program, with slow and halting progress. Last year YSU completed back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1985, and made its first post-season appearance since joining D-I 33 years ago. In the CIT, YSU trounced Oakland before losing to Canisius in OT in the second round. The player who has driven YSU’s relative success the last two seasons is senior guard Kendrick Perry, who has excelled as perhaps the best player never heard of outside the Horizon League.
Assuming no injuries, this year Perry should become the Penguins’ leading career scorer in D-I. As a two-time 1st team All-Horizon selection, Perry is a pre-season favorite for Horizon Player of the Year. He was the only player last year to finish in the league’s top 10 in scoring (2nd, 17.3 pg), rebounding (10th, 5.5 pg), and assists (6th, 4.1 pg). He was also 2nd to Ray McCallum in steals.
But YSU lost two big contributors to its modest 2013 success in center Damian Eargle and guard Blake Allen. Eargle was third in the league in rebounds and 1st in blocked shots. Allen led the league in 3-point field goals and assist/turnover ratio. Both scored in double figures. I think they are especially going to miss Allen, who did a bit of everything (12.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.1 apg), was on the floor 35 minutes a game, and often seemed to hit the key bucket, grab the key rebound, or make the big defensive stop.
While Perry will have to carry more of the load, he is not without support. Although Perry played the point for most of his first two and a half years at YSU, 5-11 junior DJ Cole took over that role in the second half of 2013 and should start there this year.
Up front, look for 6-7 senior Kamren Belin, a big guy who can step out and knock down the three with the best of them. That talent, coupled with 235 pounds of bulk, means Belin poses major matchup problems for most teams. He’ll be joined by sophomore 6-10 sophomore Bobby Hain, whose freshman year showed promise, marred by inconsistency (for example, Hain started the year with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 0 turnovers against George Washington; two nights later he had 0 points, 0 rebounds, and 2 turnovers against Georgia; he had 11 points in the CIT win over Oakland, and 0 in the season ending CIT loss to Canisius).
With Perry playing a wing, for a 5th starter YSU can then go with 6-4 junior Shawn Amiker, or go bigger with 6-6 soph Ryan Weber or 6-9 senior Josh Chojnacki. 6-7 freshman Kyle Steward, one of four Detroit area boys on the roster, could also force his way into the front line rotation.
YSU plays up-tempo, and with Perry at the wing will typically have two point guards on the floor. Accordingly, they don’t turn it over much (although losing Allen will hurt in that regard). But they’re small, and unless Hain is more consistent they could have real problems on the boards (last year they were 8th in the league in rebounding margin, with Eargle). They are also thin – expect Perry to play until he drops, and rotation to go only 7 deep.
A non-conference schedule that includes road games at Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, Massachusetts, Pitt, and St. John’s should have the Penguins ready for conference play. With Perry and Belin, they’ll never be an easy out, but unless a couple guys get better fast, they’ll likely be no better than a middle of the pack team.
Probable Starters: PG: D.J. Cole, 5-11 Jr.; 6.9 ppg, 3.4 apg, 2.8 rpg G: Shawn Amiker, 6-4 Jr.; 5.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg.; .500 fg% G: Kendrick Perry, 6-0 Sr.; 17.3 ppg, 4.1 apg, 5.5 rpg, 1.9 spg; .357 3P% F: Kamren Belin, 6-7 Sr.; 11.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, .407 3P% F: Bobby Hain, 6-10 Soph; 6.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .525 FG%
Other Key Players: F: Ryan Weber, 6-6 Soph, 1.9 ppg, 1.0 rpg F: Josh Chojnacki, 6-9 Sr., 0.9 ppg, 0.7 rpg. G: Ronnye Beamon, 6-4 RS Fr.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 7, 2013 19:21:57 GMT -5
Here's the latest prediction, from Mid-Major Madness.. The author is Kyle Nelson, a Valpo fan. 1. Green Bay 2. Wright State 3. Oakland 4. Valparaiso 5. Cleveland State 6. Youngstown State 7. UIC 8. Detroit 9. MIlwaukee and the updated composite ranking: 1. Wright State 76 2. Green Bay 68 3. Oakland 55.5 4. Cleveland State 54 5. Youngstown State 48.5 6. Valparaiso 41.5 7. Detroit 30.5 8. UIC 28 9. Milwaukee 9
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 9, 2013 16:23:35 GMT -5
Analysis #6,
Milwaukee: 2013: Horizon 3-13 (9th); Overall 8-24.
Here’s the easy one – Milwaukee will finish last in the Horizon. It may not be the correct pick (as was the case for anyone picking Wright State to finish last a year ago) but at least one will be in good company – so far, the 9 national rankings I have see have all picked Milwaukee to fill the Horizon cellar in 2014.
It’s not long ago, of course, that Milwaukee was one of the league’s top programs. From 2003-2006, the Panthers made the NCAAs 3 times, reaching the Sweet 16 in 2005 and winning another game in 2006. The year they missed – 2004 – they were the league’s regular season champs and played in the NIT. In 2011, Butler’s second final 4 year, Milwaukee tied the Bulldogs (and Cleveland State) for the league regular season title and played in the NIT. In 2012, they were still good for 20 wins and a CBI berth. Just two years ago, Coach Rob Jeter was being courted by programs such as Miami (Fla.).
Last year the Panthers were expected to be down a bit, but were generally predicted for the middle of the Horizon with an outside chance of winning. (They were projected 6th in the pre-season media poll). And when they started the year with an overtime loss at South Carolina and a solid win over Davidson, few foresaw the disaster about to strike. After beating Davidson, Milwaukee lost 9 of their next 10, saved only by an overtime home victory against lowly Northern Illinois. The Panthers finished 3-13 in conference and 8-24 overall, their worst season since 1998.
How bad were the Panthers, really? Well, 17 of their losses were by double-digits. They were last in the league in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage; last in rebounding margin; last in turnover margin and last in turnover/assist ratio. They were 8th in scoring, 8th in points allowed.
From that sad-sack team, the Panthers lose their leading scorer, Paris Gulley, and their leading rebounder, Demetrious Harris (who was also their #3 scorer). The main returnees are senior guard Jordan Aaron, who averaged 14.4 points, 4 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game playing the point, but also averaged an alarming 3.8 turnovers per game and shot just 37% from the floor, and a trio of forwards: 6-9 senior Kyle Kelm (5.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg), 6-10 soph JJ Panoski (5.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and 6-6 soph Austin Arians (6.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg). Of the forwards, Only Kelm (41.0%) shot 40% from the floor. Thierno Niang, a guard from Senegal, saw regular action until sidelined by injuries, but he shot just 28% from the floor and had nearly 50% more turnovers than assists. Back-up guard Evan Richard averaged 9 ineffective minutes per game last year.
The Panthers have a raft of new players coming in to help out. 6-7 Malcolm Moore is a 5th year Senior transfer from UTEP, where he spent two injury plagued seasons. 6-2 junior guard Steve McWhorter, from Indiana State, is probably a more valuable addition. McWhorter has to replace Paris Gulley, the best player on last year’s squad, but the added benefit is that McWhorter can play the point, allowing Aaron to move to his more natural #2 guard slot, where he should be more effective. There are also a trio of JC transfers, 6-8 Matt Tiby, 6-5 wing Trinson White, and 6-3 guard JeVon Lyle. White comes from a top JC program at Indian Hills, but averaged just 6.2 ppg last season and was injured late in the year. Lyle averaged 10 points a game at Iowa Western CC but missed the last two-thirds of the season with a broken wrist. The most promising, Tiby, was honorable mention all-region at Kirkwood CC. Two freshmen, 6-9 Brett Prahl and 6-5 Cody Wichmann, could also see time.
Frankly, it’s pretty tough to figure out how coach Rob Jeter plans to use this roster, and there’s just not a lot to work with besides numbers. So there’s not much point in trying to break down the Panthers. They could surprise, if Panoske and Arians develop from good enough freshman seasons, Aaron plays better, some of the transfers break through, and freshman Prahl steps right in. Kyle Kelm has played through a lot of injuries the last 2 seasons – maybe he feels well and has a breakout senior year. But it’s not hard to see why just about everyone has the Panthers pegged for last.
Last year, of course, Wright State was picked for last and won 23 games. Perhaps Milwaukee will gel in the same way. But it seems more likely that the Panthers’ rallying cry this year will be a line from an old and often mocked commercial: “Help! I’ve fallen and I can’t get up.”
Probable Starters: SG: Jordan Aaron, 5-10 Sr., 14.4 ppg, 4.0 apg. PG: Steve McWhorter, 6-2 Jr., (2012 Indiana State) 4.0 ppg, 1.6 apg. SF: Austin Arians, 6-6 Soph., 6.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg F: J.J. Panoski, 6-10 Soph, 5.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg. F: Matt Tiby, 6-8 Soph (Kirkwood CC) 11.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg.
Other Key Players: G: Thierno Niang, 6-1 Sr., 3.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.1 apg. G: Evan Richard, 6-2 Jr., 2.0 ppg. G: JeVon Lyle, 6-2 Soph, (Iowa Western CC) 10.0 ppg. F: Kyle Kelm, 6-9 Sr., 5.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg. F: Malcolm Moore, 6-7 Sr. (UTEP), 1.8 ppg. SF: Trinson White. 6-5 Jr., (Indian Hills CC) 6.2 ppg. C: Brett Prahl, 6-9 Fr.; Averaged 19.7 ppg. in HS.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 12, 2013 19:09:15 GMT -5
Analysis #7:
UIC
2013: Horizon 7-9 (5th T); Overall 18-16, CIT
Coming off an eight win season in 2011-12, UIC was the toast of the Horizon during the early going in 2012-13. The Flames started the season 9-1, including a home victory over eventual NCAA selection Colorado State, neutral court wins over NCAA selection Iona and NIT selection and 24 game winner Mercer, and a road win over the Big 10’s Northwestern. Their sole loss was a close game against 29 game winner New Mexico. They were playing a lock-down defense, holding 6 of those opponents to fewer than 50 points, but also capable of run-and-gun, defeating high scoring Iona in an 86-81 shootout.
It’s not quite clear what happened after that successful start, but the Flames didn’t hold another team below the 50 point level all season, and staggered through with a 9-15 record the rest of the year, including a 4-8 finish. Their 17-15 regular season was enough for a CIT bid, where they managed a first round win thanks to drawing 11-21 Chicago State, which got an automatic bid as the Great West tournament champion.
Now UIC faces the 2013 season having lost more scoring and rebounding to graduation than any team in the league except for Valpo and Detroit, which as the league’s top two teams in recent years have quite a bit more margin for decline. In Gary Talton, Daniel Barnes, and Josh Crittle the Flames lost their top 3 scorers, 3 of their top 4 rebounders, and their top two in assists. Also gone is Anthony Kelly, a valuable bench player.
Despite these losses, the new-look Flames seem confident heading into the 2014 season. A major reason for that confidence is transfer Kelsey Barlow, a starter at Purdue before being kicked off the team in 2012 after an altercation in a bar. This followed his suspension for “conduct detrimental to the team” immediately before the 2011 NCAA tournament (there are rumors, but I caution only rumors, that he failed a drug test. The University has never specified the reason for that suspension). His teammates were unfazed – senior captain Ryne Smith immediately called Barlow’s dismissal “addition by subtraction.” At the time of his dismissal, Barlow was playing some of the best ball of his career, including a 14 point effort against Ohio State and a 10 point, 8 rebound performance against Northwestern.
The Flames’ hopes to contend in the Horizon now rest substantially on the talented but troubled 6-5 senior guard. He is potentially a dominant talent in the Horizon – if he’s got his act together and isn’t too rusty from nearly a year and a half of inaction (sitting out his transfer year and missing the end of the 2012 season after his dismissal).
The other key player for the Flames is 6-8 senior power forward Hayden Humes. Humes is a solid all-around player who can score inside, drain the three, hit the boards, and pass well. Humes was a part-time starter at Toledo as a freshman in 2011, and due to Toledo’s APR problems was able to transfer to UIC, where he has been a starter for two seasons, without sitting out a year. He hasn’t gotten a lot of attention in his two seasons at UIC but don’t be surprised if Humes is an all-conference player at year-end.
The other returning starter is 6-4 junior wing Mark Brown. Look for Barlow, Humes and Brown to be joined in the starting lineup by Jordan Harks, a 6-8 graduate transfer from Central Arkansas, and Joey Miller, a 6-3 guard who was something of a disappointment after transferring from Eastern Illinois, averaging just 3.9 ppg and shooting just 31% both from the trey and overall, after averaging 10.4 at EIU in 2012. 6-10, 235 lb. junior Will Simonton and 6-8, 230 lb. soph Jake Wiegand provide some major size and depth up front and give coach Howard Moore the option to go big or small in the lineup, with Brown as the swing man. Indeed, Moser may take this route from the start, bringing Brown off the bench, just to give him some added depth at guard.
Junior Jay Parker started twice last season while playing 32 games. Parker is not an offensive threat but can provide minutes at the point. Expect 6-5 freshman wing Pat Birt, a 3-star recruit who got a lot of high major interest but mainly mid-major offers, to get some opportunities. 6-5 junior forward Ahman Fells and 6-4 sophomore guard Gabe Snider are deep on the bench but will see action.
UIC’s big weakness on offense is a lack of 3 point shooting other than Humes. They were a not a good rebounding team last year (-1.3 per game) and will be worse this year unless Simonton and Wiegand step up their games. And they’re a bit slow. But you can be sure that Moore’s team will play tough defense, and won’t turn the ball over much.
UIC needs to win this year – Barlow, Humes and Harks, probably their 3 best players, are all seniors. The Flames have an attractive non-conference schedule including a game against hated big brother Illinois on a neutral floor in Chicago and a home game against cross-town Northwestern. After last season’s Dr. Jeckyl opening but Mr. Hyde finish, and with so much rides on how Barlow performs, UIC is one of the toughest teams in the league to predict. They are not doing well with pre-season prognostcators, generally being predicted for 7th or 8th, but if you wanted to put some money on a long shot, you could do a lot worse than bet on UIC.
Probable Starters: G: 6-5 Sr. Kelsey Barlow (Purdue 2012), 8.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.7 apg G: 6-3 Jr. Joey Miller, 3.9 ppg, SF: 6-4 Jr. Mark Brown, 5.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg. PF: 6-8 Sr. Hayden Humes, 10.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 40% 3P%. F: 6-8 Sr. Jordan Harks, (Central Arkansas) 7.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .587 FG%.
Other Key Players: PG: 5-10 Jr. Jay Parker, 1.3 ppg, 1.0 apg. SF: 6-5 Fr. Pat Birt PF: 6-8 Soph. Jake Weigand, 2.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg. C: 6-10 Sr. Will Simonton, 2.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 14, 2013 21:51:42 GMT -5
CBS Sports projects: 1. Wright State 2. Green Bay 3. Oakand
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 15, 2013 19:47:06 GMT -5
Horizon Fan Poll:
1. Green Bay 2. Wright State 3. Cleveland State 4. Valparaiso 5. Oakland 6. UIC 7. Detroit 8. Youngstown State 9. Milwaukee
No idea how many voted, but I think the Horizon fans deserve to be included in the composite pre-season rankings. Those rankings are now as follows, with first place votes in parens:
1. Wright State 84 (6) 2. Green Bay 77 (3) 3. Cleveland State 61 4. Oakland 60.5 (1) 5. Youngstown State 50.5 6. Valparaiso 47.5 7. Detroit 33.5 8. UIC 32 9. Milwaukee 10
Ratings include: TSN, Athlon, Lindy's, Blue Ribbon, ESPN, USA Today, Mid-Major Madness, Big Apple Buckets, Daily Dose of Hoops, and Horizon Fan Poll.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 16, 2013 17:55:11 GMT -5
This is the 8th Preview:
Cleveland State 2013: Horizon 5-11, 7th (T); Overall 14-18.
Cleveland state had just 2 winning seasons in their first 13 years in the Horizon, but it took Gary Waters just two seasons to turn things around. From 2008 to 2012 the Vikings averaged 22 wins, with 1 NCAA and 3 NIT appearances. Last year was a setback as the Vikes finished just 14-18, but don’t expect CSU to stay down long.
Cleveland State is probably a year away, but snatching a title in 2014 isn’t at all out of the question. The Vikings have most everyone back, and some major additions coming on.
Let’s start with what comes back. Junior PG Charlie Lee turns the ball over too much, and is not a strong enough defensive player (though he gets lots of steals), to be among the league’s elite, but he did lead the league in assists last season while averaging 11.6 ppg and hitting 40% from behind the 3 point arc. Last season’s Horizon Newcomer of the Year, East Lansing sophomore Bryn Forbes, hit 39% from behind the arc while averaging 12.7 ppg. 6-4 wing Sebastian Douglas and 6-7, 260 pound senior center Devon Long were effective role players, and 6-6 junior Marlin Mason emerged as a solid performer.
The roster also includes a couple more returning big men: 6-9, 260 lb. sophomore center Aaron Scales, who didn’t play much last year but had offers from Missouri, Cincinnati, Wichita State and Washington State out of HS, and 6-9, 240 lb. senior PF Luda Ndaye, a dependable reserve who has played in 93 games over the last three seasons.
If that was it for CSU, you wouldn’t be predicted for the top of the league, but you’d be respectable.
But then come the add-ons. We’ll start with a guy who, while a major addition, isn’t new at Wolstein. As a freshman in 2012, Anton Grady was on the Horizon All-Newcomer team and finished in the top 10 in the league in blocked shots and rebounds. Last year Grady was leading the team with 13.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game when he was injured in the team’s 6th game. Grady just played few enough games to qualify for a medical redshirt season, and while the Vikings missed him last year, the thought of three more seasons has to be a happy one.
Three other major additions are sophomore guard Trey Lewis, a transfer from Penn State, 6-7 senior forward Jon Harris, a transfer from Miami (OH), and 6-10 junior center Isamaila Dauda, from Polk JC. Lewis started 6 games for Penn State as a true freshman in 2012, but missed much of the Big 10 season with back and hand injuries; Harris was a part time starter at Miami the last two seasons, and finished strong last year, averaging 15.6 points and 5.6 rebounds over the last 5 games of the season; Dauda averaged double figures in rebounds at Polk JC and had scholarship offers from Miami (Fla.) and Arkansas.
With CSU’s depth up front, another newcomer with talent, 6-7, 240 lb. freshman PF Demonte Flannigan, will find it tough to get PT. But Flannigan can play ball: rated “3 stars” by Scout and Rivals, he chose CSU over DePaul, Wisconsin, Richmond, Penn State, Xavier, and Miami (Fla.) among others. He is reported to be a very strong post player with excellent back-to-the-basket moves. Flannigan’s high school team was also nicknamed the Vikings, which probably accounts for him choosing Cleveland.
CSU has the size and bulk to match up with Valparaiso, a point guard who can drive an up-tempo game to compete with Detroit and Youngstown, depth to match Wright State, three point shooting comparable to Oakland, offensive punch inside, and good coaching in Waters. Lewis should help cut down turnovers, and we should expect to see a three guard lineup a lot with Lee, Lewis, and Forbes all on the floor. The Vikings took a little European tour this summer and went 5-0, winning by an average of more than 20 points. Forbes, in particular, was outstanding, averaging 22.6 ppg.
This is a very good team, but Waters has to blend a lot of newcomers into a cohesive whole, and there are enough question marks – most notably Grady’s comeback, Dauda’s ability to step up from JC ball, and the ability of Lee or Lewis to provide steady leadership at the point – to keep me from predicting CSU to top the league. But I like this club.
Probable Starters: PG: Charlie Lee, 5-8 Jr; 11.6 ppg, 4.8 apg, .399 3P%. SG: Bryn Forbes, 6-3 Soph.; 12.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .389 3P% SF: Marlin Mason, 6-6 Jr.: 8.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg. PF: Anton Grady, 6-8 Soph.; (6 games) 13.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg; 2.2 apg, 1.3 bpg.; (2012) 8.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg., 1.4 bpg. C: Devon Long, 6-7 Sr.: 6.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg., .615 FG%.
Other Key Players: PG: Trey Lewis 6-2 Soph: (Penn State 2012) 5.6 ppg, .347 3P%. SG/SF: Sebastian Douglas, 6-4 Jr.: 6.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg. F: Jon Harris, 6-7 Sr.: (Miami, Oh.) 8.5 ppg; 4.2 rpg; .385 3P%. PF: Luda Ndaye, 6-9 Sr.: 3.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg. PF: Demonte Flanigan, 6-7 Fr. C: Ismaila Dauda, 6-10 Jr.: (Polk JC) 10.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg. C: Aaron Scales, 6-9 Soph.: 1.5 ppg, 1.2 rpg
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 19, 2013 22:48:40 GMT -5
Here's a final preview, of Detroit. Detroit2013 Conference: 12-4 (2nd); Overall 20-13 (NIT) So the Ray McCallum (the player) era at Detroit is over. It was good, but to me it largely feels like a missed opportunity. Unusual circumstances enabled the Titans to nab a top 30 high school recruit, but beyond that, the Titans surrounded McCallum with some very good talent. Nick Minnerath was a classic mid-major story, a fine player - I think at some point he'll get at least a few games in the NBA - found in a most unusual place due to a most unusual story. Most mid-majors are lucky to see a big man like Eli Holman once every 20 years. Jason Calliste was a very good mid-major 2-guard. Doug Anderson had holes in his game, but his raw athletic ability and the excitement he could bring to a game are rare, indeed, in the mid-major ranks. The 2012 season got off to a rocky start due to injuries and off-court turmoil. Eventually the time the Titans got it going and won the Horizon tournament, but their early season losses doomed them to a #15 seed and a super tough draw against Kansas. Last year was even more of a missed opportunity. Let me suggest just a few possibilities: The Titans don’t play a terribly flat game at Bowling Green, and get the win; The Titans close out the game against St. John’s. The Titans don’t (literally) throw it away late, and win at Temple. The Titans hang on to beat Valpo by 1 at Calihan, instead of losing by 1. That would have given the Titans a 24-7 regular season mark, with road wins over 2 BCS top-50 teams in St. John’s and Temple. That’s not giving the Titans every break – I’m not saying they complete the rally to beat Syracuse, hold on to their big early leads at Pitt and Miami, don’t lose to a mediocre Cleveland State team. That 24-7 mark, with the victory over Valpo, makes the Titans regular season champs, and thus hosts of the Horizon tournament. Playing at Calihan, would they have beaten Wright State by 2 instead of losing by 2? That would make the Titans 25-7. If they then beat Valpo at home again in the final, they’re Horizon champs at 26-7; even losing, their 25-8 might well have merited an at-large bid. But at 26-7, with their schedule, they probably would have been seeded in the 10-12 range, an excellent place from which to make a Sweet 16 run. Well, enough with the woulda/coulda/shoulda. The Ray years, if perhaps a bit disappointing, were nonetheless good years, and marked the return of the program to competitiveness. This year, of course, the Titans lose a ton. Since readers here pretty well know the Titans, rather than break down the team, let me do a different approach. Let’s compare UD to Valpo. Valpo and Detroit have been the league’s two best teams the last two years, but only Valpo lost a higher percentage of last year’s scoring and rebounding than the Titans. Although the composite preseason predictions have Valpo 6th and the Titans 7th, the distance between the two is considerable. Moreover, of 11 predictions I’ve recorded, only ESPN predicted the Titans to finish ahead of the Crusaders. So let’s compare the two teams. Key Returning Players:Bobby “the Thug” Capobianco v. Evan Bruinsma (by the way, does “Bruinsma” mean “Momma Bear?”):I think most everyone around the league thinks of Capobianco as a superior to Bruinsma, but it’s not obvious that that’s the case - at least not from results. Capo’s perceived advantage, I think, stems mainly from his impressive physique and his Indiana Hoosier pedigree. But last year in Horizon League play, Capobianco averaged 6.1 points and 4.6 rebounds; Bruinsma averaged 6.3 points and 4.5 rebounds. Capo shot .578 from the floor; Bruinsma .565, but Bruinsma outshot Capo from two-point range, .651 to .586. His lower overall percentage came because he took 3 times as many 3-pointers, hitting a very respectable 36.8% of them (in other words, Evan is a 3 point threat – Capo is not). Bruinsma hit 72% of his free throws, to Capobianco’s .656. True, Bruinsma played about 6 and a half minutes more per game than Capobianco, but I’m not sure that counts in Capo’s favor. Is Capo really better than Bruinsma? Hardly clear. Lavonte Dority v. Juwan Howard:This is a more difficult comparison, because the two play different positions, but they’re not all that dissimilar, and they are the each team’s other returning rotation player, so I’ve paired them up. Between them, I think a reasonable person could go either way. I’d choose Howard, though. He’s a better defensive player, and a better pure shooter. Other Returning PlayersJordan Coleman v. Anton Wilson : 6-5 senior Jordan Coleman averaged 4.4 ppg in 15 minutes per game. 6-5 soph Anton Wilson played half as much PT and averaged 1.8 ppg. Here, I can see an observer giving the edge to Coleman, but my guess is that Wilson, the soph, has a much higher upside than Coleman, the senior. Wilson was a much more highly rated recruit and I expect that will show with more PT this year. Coleman is a decent role player, but Wilson a double figure scoring threat. Vashil Fernandez v. Ugochkwu Njoku:In my Valpo preview, I suggested that Fernandez would be the likely starter ahead of Moussa Gueye. I figure Drew will give him the chance to earn the job, because he has a higher upside than Gueye. But I was probably wrong in thinking Fernandez, even given the chance, would earn the job over the Alabama transfer. The 6-11 Fernandez last year averaged 7.3 minutes, 1.1 points, and 1.4 rebounds, with 14 blocks. The 6-10 Njoku averaged 6.3 minutes, 0.8 points, and 1.6 rebounds, with 20 blocks. Njoku fouls more, but both foul too much. Njoku seems to have much better hands, with one-third as many turnovers. You tell me: does Valpo have an edge here? Newcomers: Keith Carter v. Carlton BrundidgeEach team will have new, touted sophomore transfer point guard. Brundidge never fit into the Michigan system and immediately got stuck behind Trey Burke. Carter played in just 3 games for St. Louis last year, but he did average 13 minutes a game in those appearances. Brundidge was more highly recruited, a top 100 player in some rankings, but Rick Majerus called Carter his best ever recruit at St. Louis. My guess is that both will be good, but that Brundidge is more likely to be a dominant player. Flip a coin on who you’d pick. Moussa Gueye v. Patrick OnwenuThe 7 footer Gueye transfers into Valpo for 1 season. Gueye started 27 games for Alabama last year, but averaged just 15 minutes, 1.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. Despite his size, he shot just 37% from the floor, and 42% from the stripe. Valpo fans are very excited by Gueye, but I think they are due for a big disappointment. Sure, he started 27 games for ‘Bama, but how impressive is that? It's not like 'Bama won the national championship- they didn't even make the tournament. And Gueye was arguably the worst starting player last year in the SEC, and he actually logged the minutes of a so-so bench player. So what’s it mean to be the worst starter in the SEC? How many Horizon players are better than the worst starter in the SEC? Are Gueye’s numbers more impressive than those of Onwenu? Onwenu averaged 17.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and shot 47% at Highland CC. Sure, it’s a whole different level of play, but of course, guys come up from those type of JC numbers to become BCS starters all the time. (Remember Patrick was being recruited by Georgia when he chose UD). In his 1 year of JC ball, Gueye averaged 10.3 points and 8.7 rebounds. We can say pretty confidently that Onwenu, a JC All-American, was a better JC player than Gueye. Or we can compare 2012 seasons: Onwenu was a freshman at Texas Southern, averaging 8.8 minutes, 3.1 points, and 1.3 rebounds. Gueye was a redshirt soph at Alabama, averaging 8 minutes, 1.5 points, and 1.8 rebounds. Now again, SEC competition is a heck of a lot better than the SWAC, but I’m not sure I give any big edge to Gueye there. I will be surprised if Gueye scores more than Onwenu this year – Gueye is an offensive sinkhole. He’ll be a big presence on defense. As with almost every pairing on this list, I think you could reasonably pick either player, but I’d pick Onwenu. Alec Peters v. Paris Bass. The 6-8 Peters is a very good recruit who will play a key role for Valpo. The 6-8 Bass is a very good recruit who will play a key role for Detroit. Peters is an inside player who can go outside. Bass is a outside player who can go inside. I’d guess that Peters is more game ready this year if only because Paris is still so thin, but that’s really a guess. Peters had lots of mid-major offers, plus BC, Butler, Saint Louis, and signed early or he might have gotten more. Bass was a late bloomer – hardly recruited at all until midway through his spectacular senior year at Seaholm, followed by his triumphant AAU season this summer. By late summer, he was sitting on a dozen good mid-major offers while the likes of Iowa, UConn, and Memphis were urging him to go to prep school and join their class of 2014. Peters was predicted for newcomer of the year in the Horizon pre-season poll. I suppose we should respect that and give Valpo the edge, but again, it’s not something that is obviously the case. Clay Yeo v. Matt Grant. Yeo is a solid recruit and probably, objectively, deserves the edge over Grant. I still think Grant is going to be surprisingly good, but we’ll see. Lexis Williams v. Jarod Williams. The quick freshman point guard vs. the tall freshman point guard. Mix and MatchDavid Chadwick v. Jermaine Lippert Newcomer Chadwick, a 6-9, 220 lb graduate senior transfer, averaged 7 minutes, 1.5 points, and 0.9 rebounds for Rice. Lippert, a 6-8 senior forward, average 4.6 minutes, 1.1 points, and 1.1 rebounds for Detroit. Jubril Adekoya v. Olumide Solanke: The 6-7 freshman Adekoya and the 6-11 senior Solanke both figure to spend a lot of time on the bench. I’d give the edge to Adekoya, but I’m not sure it matters. LeftoversNick Davidson v. . The Titans have only an 11 man roster, whereas Valpo’s freshman guard will play. Edge Valpo, I suppose. So is Valpo really better, as most the “experts” seems to think? I suppose I’d join the crowd and be prepared to give them a slight edge, but when you match the two teams up this way, it’s not exactly a landslide. And perhaps it shows how many questions there are this year in the Horizon. Miscellania: The Titans have had 4 straight winning seasons for the first time since they ended a string of 9 straight winning seasons in 2003-04. The Titans longest streaks of winning seasons: 10 (1971-1980) 9 (1996-2004) 9 (1936-1944) 7 (1960-1966) 4 (2010-2013) 4 (1949-1952) 4 (1911-1914) The Titans will also be trying to win 20 games in 3 consecutive seasons for the first time since winning 20 or more in 4 consecutive seasons from 1998-2001. The Titans also had 3 consecutive 20 win seasons from 1977-1979. The Titans’ all-time leaders in coaching wins: 1. Bob Calihan 306 2. Perry Watson 261 3. Lloyd Brazil 185 4. Ray McCallum 86 5. Dick Vitale 78 Dick Vitale’s first game as Titan coach was 40 years ago, on December 1, 1973. The Titans beat Hillsdale, 96-63. This year also marks the 40th anniversary of the first match-up between Detroit and Oakland. The Titans beat Oakland 100-75 in December, 1973. The 1973-74 squad is also the only Titan team to beat Michigan and Michigan State in the same season. This is the 15th anniversary of the 1999 team, the last Titan squad to win an NCAA tournament game, beating UCLA. It’s the 35th anniversary of the 1979 team, the last Titan squad to be nationally ranked. It’s the 45th anniversary of Spencer Haywood’s 1 season in Detroit. Haywood set the Titans’ single season records for points and rebounds per game (32.1 and 21.5), and is the Titan’s last “teamed” All-American. This is the 50th anniversary of the 1964 team, which lead the nation in scoring. The Titans averaged 96.1 ppg, but gave up 86 ppg and finished just 14-11. Dick Dzik led the team with 21.7 ppg and 20.8 rpg. Sophomore Dorie Murrey added 16.9 ppg, Al Cech 15.8, and Terry Page 10.9. It’s the 75th anniversary of the 1938-39 team, which featured Detroit’s first All-American, Bob Calihan. Other members of the All-America team that year included Irving Torgoff (Long Island), Urgel Wintermute (Oregon), Chet Jaworski (Rhode Island), and Bernie Opper (Kentucky). The 1939 Titans went 15-5, with Calihan averaging 13.3 ppg.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 22, 2013 21:44:51 GMT -5
Here's the Horizon Media Poll: 1. Green Bay (21) 390 2. Wright State (22) 389 3. Cleveland State (2) 338 4. Oakland (1) 258 5. Youngstown State (1) 219 6. Valparaiso 205 7. UIC 151 8. Detroit 141 9. Milwaukee 69
And here's the NBC College Basketball Talk Prediction: 1. Wright State 2. Green Bay 3. Oakland 4. Cleveland State 5. Youngstown State 6. UIC 7. Valparaiso 8. Milwaukee 9. Detroit
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 22, 2013 21:47:58 GMT -5
Latest Composite Ranking:
1. Wright State 101 (7) 2. Green Bay 94 (4) 3. Cleveland State 74 4. Oakland 73.5 (1) 5. Youngstown State 60.5 6. Valparaiso 54.5 7. UIC 39 8. Detroit 36.5 9. Milwaukee 13
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Post by Commissioner on Nov 4, 2013 21:46:48 GMT -5
Using Ken Pom rankings, Big Apple Buckets ran 10,000 computer simulations, and came up with this: Outright Win Conference: 1. Green Bay 31.6% 2. Wright St. 27.0% 3. Oakland 4.7% 4. Valparaiso 4.0% 5. Detroit 3.7% 6. Cleveland St. 2.9% 7. Youngstown St. 1.7% 8. UIC 0.0% 9. Milwaukee 0.0% Win or tie for title: 1.Green Bay 48.1% 2. Wright State 42.9% 3. Oakland 10.6% 4. Valparaiso 9.2% 5. Detroit 9.1% 6. Cleveland State 7.0% 7. Youngstown State 4.4% 8. UIC 0.3% 9. Milwaukee 0.1% Average Wins: 1. Green Bay 10.7 2. Wright State 10.5 3. Oakland 8.5 4. Valparaiso 8.3 5. Detroit 8.2 6. Cleveland State 8.0 7. Youngstown State 7.5 8. UIC 5.2 9. MIlwaukee 4.9 Average wins needed to win league: 12 www.nycbuckets.com/2013/11/10000-sims-horizon-league/
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