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Post by Commissioner on Aug 31, 2013 7:18:22 GMT -5
This thread is to collect previews on the Horizon League for 2013-14.
Here are couple to start:
USA Today: 1. Wright State
College Sports Madness: 1. Wright State 2. Green Bay 3. Oakland
Joe Lunardi (Bracketology) 1. Detroit
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Post by Commissioner on Aug 31, 2013 7:20:17 GMT -5
The Sporting News: 1. Wright St 2. Cleveland St 3. Youngstown St 4. Wisconsin Green Bay 5. Valpo 6. Oakland 7. UIC 8. Detroit 9. Wisconsin Milwaukee
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 4, 2013 9:50:34 GMT -5
Big Apple Buckets:
1. Wright St. (12-4) 2. Green Bay (11-5) 3. Cleveland St. (9-7) 4. Youngstown St. (8-8) 4. Oakland (8-8) 6. Valparaiso (7-9) 6. Detroit (7-9) 8. UIC (6-10) 9. Milwaukee (4-12)
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 4, 2013 17:30:20 GMT -5
Maybe we'll be able to sneak up on people this year.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 5, 2013 18:37:41 GMT -5
Lindy's Sports' HL preview:
1. Wright State 2. Green Bay 3. Cleveland State 4. Oakland 5. Youngstown State 6. UIC 7. Valparaiso 8. Detroit 9. Milwaukee
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 19, 2013 21:56:13 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 21, 2013 11:29:44 GMT -5
Athlon Sports HL preview:
1. Green Bay 2. Oakland 3. Wright State 4. Valparaiso 5. Youngstown State 6. Detroit 7. Cleveland St 8. UIC 9. Milwaukee
HT to TJMK
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 23, 2013 11:17:27 GMT -5
"A Daly Dose of Hoops" by Jaden Daly
1. Oakland 2. Valparaiso 3. Wright State 4. Detroit 5. Youngstown State 6. Green Bay 7. Cleveland St 8. UIC 9. Milwaukee
Daly seems to have done more work than most of the others, including accounting for incoming talent. Still, I suspect he's a bit optimistic on Valpo and UD. And he doesn't mention Kiefer Sykes in discussing Green Bay. is that - forgetting Sykes - why he has them so low?
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 23, 2013 11:22:49 GMT -5
Assigning 9 points for 1st, 8 for 2nd, and so on, a composite of the 6 rankings out early (TSN, Lindy's, Big Apple Buckets, USA Tdy, Daly Dose, and Athlon) would be:
9/25: Updated to include Blue Ribbon:
1. Wright State 59 2. Green Bay 51 3. Oakland 44.5 4. Cleveland State 42 5. Youngstown State 33.5 6. Valparaiso 32.5 7. UIC 23 8. Detroit 22.5 9. Milwaukee 7
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 23, 2013 14:37:14 GMT -5
"A Daly Dose of Hoops" by Jaden Daly 1. Oakland 2. Valparaiso 3. Wright State 4. Detroit 5. Youngstown State 6. Green Bay 7. Cleveland St 8. UIC 9. Milwaukee Daly seems to have done more work than most of the others, including accounting for incoming talent. Still, I suspect he's a bit optimistic on Valpo and UD. And he doesn't mention Kiefer Sykes in discussing Green Bay. is that - forgetting Sykes - why he has them so low? Yeah, I think you are right about the Sykes thing. He missed that. I do give him credit for being up to date on Calliste and acknowledging the presence of Carlton when discussing the Titans. I think he's got Oakland too high, too.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 25, 2013 16:14:48 GMT -5
Blue Ribbon Basketball:
1. Wright State 2. Green Bay 3. Cleveland State 4. Oakland 5. UIC 6. Valparaiso 7. Detroit 8. Youngstown State 9. Milwaukee
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 26, 2013 18:10:03 GMT -5
Here's my analysis of Wright State for the upcoming season:
2013: 10-6, 3d (T) Horizon; 23-13 overall, CBI.
At first glance, what’s not to like about the 2014 Wright State Raiders? The Raiders return 12 players from last year’s surprising 23 win team, including all five starters and 9 players who averaged 14 minutes or more per game. In addition, Butler transfer Chrishawn Hopkins (9.1 ppg in 2012) becomes eligible at the end of fall semester. The likely 10-man rotation will include 9 juniors or seniors. Not surprisingly, Wright State has been the favorite of most national prognosticators to win the Horizon this year.
But a closer examination suggests that the Raiders are not so formidable as they first appear. Let’s start with last year’s surprising season. To start, remember, that if this is the same personnel that won 23 games last year, it is also the same personnel picked to finish dead last in last year’s pre-season polls. The prognosticators were wrong in their assessment of WSU's talent, but were they all that far wrong? Perhaps not.
Until the CBI, when they beat Tulsa (RPI 124) and Richmond (RPI 91) at home, the Raiders beat just one team all season with an RPI below 150 – Detroit, whom they skinned twice, once in the regular season and then on a last second shot in the conference tournament. Indeed, the Raiders were a remarkable 6-0 last year in conference games decided by one possession (that is, 1 to 3 points). You might call that clutch play or good coaching. But others would call that luck, particularly given that the Raiders were one of the league’s worst free throw shooting teams, finishing 7th in the conference. Split those six nailbiters 3-3, and the Raiders would be looking at a 7-9 conference record and a 6th place finish.
Similarly, the Raiders’ projected conference record, based on actual points scored and allowed, would have been just 8-8, with an overall record of 19-17 (That is, the average team with Wright State’s points scored and points allowed would have finished 8-8 in conference and 19-17 overall, vs. WSU’s 10-6 and 23-13). Again, you can call it clutch play and good coaching, or you can call it plain luck, or maybe some of each. But it suggests a decline is more likely than an improvement.
The stats show a number of weaknesses in Wright State that suggest that they overperformed last year. The Raiders were a so-so shooting team, 4th in the Conference (just .001 ahead of #5 Green Bay). They were 6th in 3-point shooting percentage and 7th in 3 pointers made. As noted, they were 7th in free throw shooting. Hopkins has a reputation as a scorer, but at Butler he was not a good shooter, hitting just 35.3% from the floor and 26.7% from 3-point range, so he may not improve things as much as some expect. In freshman wing JT Yoho, they did have the league’s #2 3-point shooter, but Yoho’s lack of defense often kept him on the bench.
In addition, the Raiders were not a good rebounding team, finishing 6th in the conference with an average deficit of 1.3 rebounds per game. Their offensive rebound percentage was last in the league, not a good sign for a so-so shooting team, and their defensive rebounding percentage was just 4th. Nor did the Raiders take good care of the ball. They were 8th in the league in total turnovers, ahead only of Valparaiso, which played a much more up-tempo game. And they were 7th in Assists/Turnover ratio, ahead only of 8th place Cleveland State and last place Milwaukee. This is another area where the addition of the veteran guard Hopkins may not really help – at Butler he had more turnovers than assists, by a considerable margin.
So how did the Raiders end up with 23 wins? Besides winning close games, the key to WSU’s success last season was a swarming defense. The Raiders forced 15.8 turnovers per game, a remarkable number given their relatively slow-paced style of play (Only Detroit, playing a much more up-tempo style, forced more, an average of 16.4 per game. Similarly, they were second to Detroit in steals per game.) The Raiders come at teams in waves, constantly changing match-ups and keeping their own players fresh (which may have helped garner all those one-possession wins).
Even beyond the addition of Hopkins, there is reason to believe the Raiders could improve in 2014. The team’s best player, 6-8 forward Cole Darling, missed 13 games last year with injuries, including the final 10. The sharpshooter Yoho should be more consistent and can pick up his defense; junior point Reggie Arceneaux has also been inconsistent for two years but may be ready to blossom. Junior forward Tavares Sledge is another player who has yet to reach the potential he showed as a recruit. The team’s tremendous depth allows it to go big or small as the circumstances demand, and they can accordingly match up well with any team in the league.
Despite these advantages, color me a Wright State skeptic. It’s not that I think they’re going to completely collapse or anything, and in fact a cream puff non-conference schedule almost guarantees an overall 18 win season and a CIT bid in a worst case scenario. But as I’ve tried to demonstrate above, I think their success last season is a bit misleading. They look to me more like a team heading for a come-down than a charge to the top. And that’s before we consider the possible effects of injuries. 6-5 senior guard Matt Vest, the only player to start all 36 games last season, had hip surgery in the off-season. His recovery remains uncertain. Darling has had a series of shoulder problems that have hindered him throughout his collegiate career, and as noted missed the last quarter of last season with a foot injury and recurring shoulder problems. 6-10 senior forward A.J. Pacher also had off-season surgery. Wright State’s depth could be sorely tested.
There’s a reason why Wright State is generally considered the Horizon pre-season favorite, and frankly, they've earned it. But there’s also an old adage, “buy low, sell high.” Last year was a good time to buy Wright State low. This year? Wright State will be a tough opponent in every game, and a factor in the race, but don’t anoint them champs yet.
Probable Starting Line-up: F: Tavares Sledge 6-9 Jr.; 4.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg F: Cole Darling 6-8 Sr.; 11.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg G: Kendall Griffin, 6-4 Sr.: 6.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg. PG: Reggie Arceneaux, 5-9 Jr.: 8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.5 apg; .346 3P%. G: Matt Vest, 6-5 Sr.: 5.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.2 apg.
Other Key Players: F: A.J. Pacher 6-10 Sr: 5.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg. F: Jerran Young 6-6 Sr: 8.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg F: J.T. Yoho 6-6 So: 6.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, .422 3P%. G: Chrishawn Hopkins 6-1 Jr.: (2012 Butler) 9.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.5 apg. G: Miles Dixon 6-1 Sr: 8.5 ppg.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 28, 2013 21:34:33 GMT -5
This is the second of my Horizon 2014 team analyses.
Valparaiso 2013: 13-3, 1st Horizon, 26-8 Overall, NCAA
After a two-year run at the top of the league, Valparaiso loses all 5 starters and its top 6 players in minutes played last season, including 2012 Conference Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff and 2nd team all-conference selection Kevin Van Wijk. But the cupboard was not left entirely bare, and there’s quite a bit of new talent, so Valpo approaches the season with confidence.
This year’s Valpo edition starts with size. The one sure starter up front is 5th year senior and Indiana transfer Bobby Capobianco. The 6-10, 235 lb. Capobianco averaged 5.9 ppg and 4.5 rebounds in 2013 while shooting 55% from the floor. Capobianco’s game is too limited for him to become a break out star, but he’s a very good player and will be a solid regular. Likely to join Capobianco up front is 6-10, 245 lb. Jamaican Junior Vashil Fernandez. Fernandez averaged just 7 minutes per game in 27 games last year, but Valpo has anticipated big things from the big guy since his signing. If Fernandez can’t step up, the Crusaders will turn to 7-0 Alabama transfer Moussa Gueye. Gueye is not an offensive threat, but he rebounds and alters the shot of most anybody trying to get in the lane. I think it is unlikely that both Fernandez and Gueye will start, but the option to go huge across the front line is a nice one to have. But if only one starts, as I think likely, I think Fernandez gets first chance because of his greater upside. Also available is David Chadwick, a 6-9 5th year senior transfer from Rice. Chadwick lends depth but if he’s playing more than 10-15 minutes per game it’s not a good sign for Valpo.
A trio of freshmen are likely to battle for the final spot in the front line: 6-7 Jubril Adekoya, 6-8 Alec Peters, and 6-4 Clay Yeo. Peters, who chose Valpo over Boston College, Butler, St. Louis and a number of other offers, is probably the best of the trio. Adekoya also fielded a host of mid-major offers before choosing the Crusaders. Yeo is not as good a player as Peters and Adekoya, but he’s a bigger scoring threat on a team that needs to find points, and a better ball handler on a team that, at least early, will be weak at PG. He’s also a three point threat, which this team needs. As a result, I think he’ll get the nod. Alternatively, if none of the frosh are ready Coach Bryce Drew could go with 6-5 senior guard Jordan Coleman on the wing. Coleman averaged 4.4 points and 2.5 rebounds in just under 15 minutes per game last season.
Valpo’s best player may be a guy who’s played all of 39 minutes of college ball and won’t be eligible until mid-December. Former St. Louis coach Rick Majerus once called Billiken transfer Keith Carter the best floor leader he’d ever coached after Andre Miller. As a freshman last year, Carter was injured in the Billikens’ second game of the season, missed 7 games, returned to play 21 minutes against Eastern Illinois on December 19, and then announced two days later he was leaving the program. He’ll be eligible for Valpo’s game against NAIA member Southeastern on December 22, and the Crusaders need him badly. A key weakness to last season’s squad was lack of depth at the point, which Detroit, in particular, used to its advantage. Carter will be the Crusaders’ point once eligible.
Until then, they’ll muddle through the non-conference schedule with South Florida transfer Lavonte Dority at the point. Dority is a shooting guard at heart, but was often forced to play the point last season when starter Erik Buggs hit the bench. He averaged 8.6 points in just 21 minutes per game, but had more turnovers than assists. Dority likes to chuck it up, but he’s not actually shown himself to be a good shooter, averaging less than 32% from the floor in two seasons at USF, and 37% last year, including 31% from behind the arc. Still, he’s the kind of guy who can light it up on a hot night. He’ll probably slide over to the #2 slot when Carter comes in, although he could be used as a spark off the bench with the starting gig going to Coleman or another touted freshman, Nick Davidson. And still another freshman, 5-11 Lexus Williams, will back up the point or could even take the job from Dority until Carter is eligible. Williams is quick, sees the floor well, and should eventually be a good player, but probably isn’t ready to step in to a major role this year. Nonetheless, given Dority’s weaknesses as a point guard Williams will be given the opportunity to play if he shows well in practice.
Valpo’s biggest problem this year may be getting points on the board, an odd situation for a school that is usually at or near the top of the conference in scoring and points per possession. If Drew lets him, Dority would be happy to chuck up 20 shots a night and average about 14-15 ppg, but that’s probably not the best move for a winning team. Capobianco should average in double digits and is capable of the occasional big night, but he’s not a true, consistent scoring threat. So someone has to step up there – it could be Fernandez or Coleman, or perhaps Carter, or one of the freshman – all are possibilities but none the obvious candidate.
In two years at Valpo Bryce Drew has shown himself to be one of the nation’s best young coaches, but this year will easily be his toughest test to date. He’s got to bring together a team of freshmen and transfers, mix in a new point guard ten days before the conference schedule begins, and find somebody who can score points. And there’s not much time to do this: they’ve got games with Murray State, Mercer, Central Florida, and at Illinois, Ohio U. and Evansville, before the end of November. Then St. Louis visits on December 7. So don’t be surprised if Valpo is slow out of the gate.
But ultimately, there’s talent here. Valpo is a likely middle of the pack team, perhaps finishing as high as 3rd or a low as 7th or even 8th. If I had to pick winners today, I’d likely pick league favorite Wright State to beat Valpo when they meet on January 10 in the ARC. But Valpo should get better as the year goes along, and if I had to pick today I’d pick Valpo to win a March rematch of last year’s Horizon Tournament championship game with WSU. Other Horizon teams definitely don’t want to let Valpo sneak through this year, because the Crusaders are only going to get better in 2015 and 2106 as Carter and the freshmen mature.
Probable Starting Lineup: PG: Keith Carter, 6-0 Soph. Played 3 games with St. Louis in 2012-13. SG: Lavonte Dority, 6-1 Sr., 8.6 ppg, 1.9 apg. F: Clay Yeo 6-4 Fr. F: Bobby Capobianco 6-10 Sr., 5.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, .551 FG% C: Vashil Fernandez 6-10 Jr., 1.1 ppg, 1.4 rpg
Other Key Players: G: Jordan Coleman, 6-5 Sr.: 4.4 ppg. PG: Lexus Williams, 5-11 Fr. SG: Nick Davidson, 6-3 Fr. F: David Chadwick, 6-9 Sr.: (2012 Rice) 1.5 ppg, 0.9 rpg. F: Jubril Adekoya, 6-7 Fr. F: Alec Peters, 6-8 Fr. C: Moussa Gueye, 7-0 Sr.: (2013 Alabama) 1.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.4 blocks pg.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 1, 2013 11:19:18 GMT -5
This is the third of my Horizon team pre-season analyses, covering the Oakland Grizzlies. Oakland2013: 10-6, 4th place Summit League: 16-17 overall, CIT. Go around Horizon League fan boards, and there’s always a certain disgruntlement with the Horizon League. It should be better, bigger, smaller, get rid of its remaining privates, add more privates, require tougher scheduling policies, and on and on. Not around Oakland. Grizzly fans are ecstatic to escape the Summit League for the higher plateaus of the Horizon. And they’ve got a team that ought to be competitive right away. My personal view, though, is that many fans around the league are a bit too excited about the addition of Oakland. Obviously that’s not the case around the corner of Livernois and McNichols, but even leaving aside local biases, Oakland’s strength is often overestimated. Let’s start with the obivious – the Griz had a losing record last season. Big picture, the Grizzlies have one of the smallest arenas, lowest average attendances, and smallest basketball and overall athletic budgets in the Horizon. Oakland’s basketball success in the last decade has largely come from pummeling inferior Summit competition. In non-conference play over the past 5 years, Oakland is just 26-42 against D-I opponents. This is in part because they have tended to play very difficult non-conference schedules against lots of top high-majors, but not entirely so: for example, they are just 5-5 against the MAC and 0-2 against the MVC in that time, leagues much closer to the Horizon in level of play than is the Summit. In other words, success in the Summit won’t automatically translate into success in the Horizon. And while Loyola has been the Horizon’s weak sister for the last decade, long term their endowment, history, and location give them more potential, at least if they are really serious about getting serious again about basketball. Nor is it clear, as I’ve noted elsewhere, that Oakland’s “murderer’s row” scheduling philosophy will help the Horizon’s overall RPI, though it should help Oakland’s. Be that as it may, Oakland is here, and they should field a very competitive team this year. The immediate effect of the Oakland for Loyola swap is certainly to make the Horizon a better league in 2014. Oakland’s game starts with Travis Bader, a 6-5 wing who averaged 22.1 ppg last season, 5th best in the nation and second (after Creighton’s Doug McDermott) among returning players. He also led the nation in 3 pointers made. If you think Ray McCallum played a lot last year, note that Bader averaged almost two minutes MORE per game than McCallum, while playing in every game. Bader was on the floor for 95% of Oakland’s minutes last year. He should bring lots of attention to the Horizon this year and it wouldn’t be surprising if he followed Ray McCallum and Norris Cole as an All-American selection. Bader is by no means the only talent. The returning point guard is 5th year senior Duke Mondy, a Providence transfer who averaged 12 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds last season. In the middle Oakland has a third contender for all-conference honors in 6-10, 260 lb. junior Corey Petros. who averaged 12.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, shooting 56% from the floor. The question is whether there is enough behind these three to propel the Grizzlies to the top of the standings. Coach Greg Kampe has state that he wants to turn the point over to touted freshman Kahlil Felder from day one. Felder is good but there’s always some risk in a freshman point guard. If Felder does start, Mondy slides over to the #2, and the final starter will be one of a pair of junior transfer forwards, Ralph Hill from Dayton or Tommy McCune from West Virginia. McCune was a highly rated high school recruit who was booted from West Virginia after various brushes with the law and violations of team rules. He transferred to Oakland, where Kampe kicked him off the team last year. But after being booted McCune stayed in school, is said to have worked hard, and has been given one final chance. My guess, however, is that Hill gets the starting nod. If Felder can’t handle the point, both McCune and Hill could start. Oakland’s bench is thin, however, and getting thinner. Earlier this month it was announced that 6-9 back-up forward Raphael Carter will miss the entire season to have femoral acetabular impingement surgery, whatever that is (it sounds bad, and I wish him well). 6-6 forward Dante Williams averaged 3.7 points and 1.8 rebounds in 15 minutes per game. 6-5 sophomore forward Lloyd Neely was a disappointment last year, and played just 150 minutes on the entire season. In the backcourt, the lack of depth got a lot worse this week when it was announced that 5-9 senior guard Ryan Bass, who started 24 games last season, averaging 9.3 ppg, was leaving the team for unspecified reasons. That will make it tougher for Oakland to use the three guard line up and perhaps guarantee some added opportunity for Hill and McCune. It also provides a chance for freshman guard Nick Daniels or even walk-on soph Mitch Baenziger. But basically, we're probably looking at a 7 man rotation, assuming no further attrition. The loss of Carter points up another potential weakness – while Petros is a force in the middle, with Carter out he will be the only Grizzly in the rotation topping 6-6, except for McCune, who despite his 6-8 stature weighs just 200 pounds and really is a perimeter player. Fortunately for OU, Petros has been pretty good at staying out of foul trouble. Oakland’s style, like Detroit’s, is up-tempo, and UD/Oakland games ought to be a high scoring spectacle. If the Titans don’t defend the trey better than last year, Bader could go for 50 against UD. But the flip side is that Oakland was dead last in the country last year in 2 pt. FG defense. And with the Horizon featuring more size up front than it has in many a year, Oakland could have real difficulty. In the bigger picture, if Felder is good; if McCune stays out of trouble and plays like the Big 10/Big East recruit he once was; if Ralph Hill is quite a bit better than he was at Dayton; and if they avoid injuries, Oakland could be extremely good. More likely, they’ll be one of several contenders in a wide-open Horizon League race. I’ll say a top 4 finish is reasonable, but I don’t see Oakland winning it. Probable Starting Lineup PG: Kahlil Felder, 5-9 Fr. SG: Duke Mondy, 6-4 Sr., 12.0 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.4 rpg. SF: Travis Bader, 6-5 Sr., 22.1 ppg, .394 3P%. F: Ralph Hill, 6-6 Jr., (Dayton 2012) 1.4 ppg. C: Corey Petros, 6-10 Jr., 12.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .565 FG%. Other Key Players: F: Tommy McCune, 6-8 Jr., (West Virginia 2012) played 13 games, 4.5 mpg. F: Dante Williams, 6-6 Jr., 3.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg. F: Lloyd Neely, 6-5 Soph., 1.1 ppg. G: Nick Daniels, Fr. UPDATE 10/10: Looks like Tommy McCune will start ahead of Ralph HIll. If not McCune, Williams is likely to claim that spot.
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Post by Commissioner on Oct 3, 2013 23:53:56 GMT -5
This is the 4th pre-season analysis of Horizon teams.
Green Bay 2013: 10-6 Conference (3d T); 18-16 overall; CIT.
I don’t like predictions – they can be wrong. Open-ended analysis provides a better margin of safety- you can never be definitively proven incorrect. But I will confess, Green Bay would be my choice to win what should be a wide open Horizon league race this year. I think any team but Milwaukee could win it, and the odds of Green Bay winning are well under less than 50 percent. But if forced to choose, I’d go with the Phoenix.
When I analyzed Wright State’s chances, I noted that there are several signs that the Raiders simply over-performed last year. For Green Bay, those signs tend to go the other way – the Phoenix should have done better. For one thing, Green Bay was 2-5 in games decided by a single possession. While Green Bay and Wright State finished with identical 10-6 conference marks, the Phoenix won by an average of 4.9 ppg, to Wright State’s 3.1 ppg margin. After a miserable start, the Phoenix went a very respectable 15-9, including a win over Marquette. Green Bay also had to get through a number of distractions during the season, including the flap with Ryan Bross and Wardle’s coaching style, but also the suspension of Brennan Cougill for violating team rules, and the mid-season departure of 3 point specialist Kam Ceroni. I’ve no idea of who was right or wrong, but it doesn’t matter. Some think this will be a distraction this year. I think the opposite is more likely – the distractions are over and the guys who are left know what to expect and want to be there.
Green Bay also got the benefit of an overseas trip this summer, which I think usually pay dividends. Playing admittedly weak competition in the Bahamas, they won all three games even though playing without star Alec Brown, who was out with a sprained ankle. He’ll be ready by the time the season starts, and in fact has never missed a game in his 3 years at Green Bay.
Green Bay’s fortunes will rise or fall with two players: center Brown and point guard Kiefer Sykes. Brown’s 2013 season was widely viewed as a disappointment, although in fact his numbers were remarkably similar to 2012. His scoring and assists were actually up a bit, though the rest of his stats were down slightly across the board. This may have gone largely unnoticed because he came on strong late, after most everybody had already labeled his season “disappointing.” For the season, Brown averaged 14.1 points, shooting just .449. But he was getting better all season. For example, he averaged just 11.9 ppg in non-conference play, versus 15.8 in conference. For his last 12 games, he averaged 17.1 ppg and nearly 2 blocks per game, while shooting .517 from the floor. He was playing his best ball down the stretch, averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, while shooting 56% from the floor, over Green Bay’s last 6 games. In other words, he kept getting better all season, almost any way you slice it. I’m guessing Brown has a really big year in 2014, but that’s just my guess.
Sykes gives the Phoenix an excellent point guard, so they’ve got arguably the league’s best players at arguably the two most important positions. Sykes, first team all-conference a year ago, looked very ready in the Caribbean, averaging 24 points, 6 assists, and 6.3 steals in the Bahamas.
But there’s more behind these two. Up front, Jordan Fouse led the league in rebounding as a freshman. Indeed, the Phoenix were the best rebounding team in the league last year, and ought to be again. Brennan Cougill, a tough rebounder, is gone, but 6-8 junior Alfonzo McKinney, a high school teammate of Sykes and a transfer from Eastern Illinois, steps in to take his place. As a sophomore at EIU in 2012, McKinney averaged 10.2 points and 7 rebounds, while shooting .567 from the floor, second best in the OVC. McKinney averaged 9.3 rebounds in just 14 minutes per game in the Bahamas. 6-9 junior Greg Mays is another banger up front. Dan Turner was the team’s leading rebounder as a freshman in 2011, but has been hurt most of the past two years. He missed the Bahamas games and can’t be counted on in 2014, but if he were to come back, the Phoenix would be downright scary on the boards.
In the backcourt, Sykes is joined by returning sophomore Carrington Love, and three players who weren’t around a year ago: Lamin Fulton, an active guard who transferred from St. Peter’s by way of NW Florida JC, Rutgers transfer Vince Garrett (also a high school teammate of Sykes), and soph swing man Josh Humphrey, back from an injury red shirt year. They’ve also got a pair of big freshmen guards who might surprise.
The downside to picking Green Bay to win it is that the Phoenix haven’t really addressed their weaknesses of a year ago – turnovers and lack of 3 point shooting. Last year they were 6th in the league in total turnovers and 8th in turnover margin. Neither Garrett nor Humphries will help much there, and Fulton had more turnovers than assists at St. Pete’s two years ago. Meanwhile, the transfer out of Sultan Muhammad will hurt. On the three-point front, the Phoenix were 8th in 3 point FGPct., and last in three-pointers made last season. Muhammad and Ceroni were the club’s biggest 3 point threats, and both transferred out. Sykes and Brown both shot over 40% from behind the arc last year, so they’re not without long-range threats, but both took only about 70 attempts. Fulton will take the trey, too, but it’s not his strength. The Bahamas trip was not encouraging: Sykes shot 2 of 13 from behind the arc, his one shortcoming on the trip, while Love was 3 of 15.
At the other end of the floor, Brown and Fouse are the league’s top two returning shot blockers, and a big reason why Green Bay was second last year in opponent’s shooting percentage. But breakdowns on the perimeter mean that they give up a lot of 3 pointers – worst in the league last year except for Detroit.
So in some ways, the 2014 Phoenix look a lot like the 2013 Phoenix. But that’s not the worst place to be, and there are enough indicators that the Phoenix did not live up to their talent last year. I think things will be different in 2014.
Probable Starters: PG – Keifer Sykes, 5-11 Jr.; 15;9 ppg, 4.3 apg; 3.3 rpg, 1.1 steals pg; .431 3P%; .815 FT Pct. G- Carrington Love, 6-1 Soph: 2.6 ppg F- Alfonze McKinney, 6-8 Jr. (2012 Eastern Illinois): 10.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg; .567 FG% F- Jordan Fouse, 6-7 Soph: 6.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg; 1.6 spg, 1.4 blocks. C – Alec Brown, 7-1 Sr., 14.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg.
Other Key Players: G – Lamin Fulton, 5-10 Jr. (NW Florida JC; averaged 8.9 ppg for St. Peter’s in 2012) G/F – Josh Humphrey, 6-5 Soph. (2012) 1.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg. G – Vince Garrett, 6-6 Sr. (Rutgers) 1.5 ppg. F – Greg Mays, 6-9 Jr.: 6.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg
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