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Post by Commissioner on Dec 30, 2013 22:37:15 GMT -5
As the non-conference season wraps up, I thought I would try to review what we’ve learned about Horizon teams as we head into Conference play. I’m going to divide this into two posts. This first is just an overview of the league’s performance in non-conference play. The second will look at each team in the league.
The Horizon currently ranks #13 in Conference RPI, and with the season nearly halfway done, is starting to settle in here. This is down one spot from last year’s #12 finish. The split of the Big East into the Big East and the American Athletic has left both conferences ahead of the Horizon, knocking us down one spot. We have passed up the decimated Conference USA, but slipped behind the MAC, which is having its strongest season, top-to-bottom, in years. Indeed, after several years of dominating the MAC in head-to-head play, the Horizon is just 6-13 against the MAC this year.
Thus, contrary to the hopes of some, it seems highly unlikely that the Horizon will crack the top 10 this year. The league has been 11th-13th in Conference RPI every year since 2006, so this is our normal “comfort zone.” While the league could still move up or down a couple spots (and down is more likely, for reasons I won’t address here, but in fact we’re likely to drop) rapid shifts are unlikely. There is now a fair bit of distance between the Horizon and both the #12 MAC and the #14 Sunbelt. The Conference RPI is .5029. Were Loyola still a member instead of Oakland, it would be .4910, which would drop the Horizon in 15th position overall, behind the Sunbelt and the Big West.
The Horizon has the #11 non-conference SOS ranking, but only a .444 winning percentage (counting only D-I opponents), down considerably from last years .530 and the conference’s worst non-conference winning percentage since at least 2009. Only two teams – Green Bay and Milwaukee, will have compiled winning records against D-I teams in non-conference play, although adding in wins against non-DI teams send 6 teams into conference play with overall winning records.
Here is the league’s record against opponents by RPI (as of Dec 30): 1-25: 0-10 26-50: 0-7 51-100: 3-14 101-150: 5-8 151-200: 10-9 201-300: 26-7 300+: 5-5 (ick. Three of these losses come from UIC). Non-DI: 20-0
By Conference: ACC: 1-3 America East: 0-1 American Athletic: 2-3 Atlantic Sun: 1-2 Atlantic 10: 1-2 Big East: 0-4 Big South: 0-1 Big 10: 0-7 Big West: 0-1 Colonial: 3-2 (all 3 wins over James Madison) CUSA: 3-1 Ivy: 0-1 MAAC: 2-0 MAC: 6-13 MEAC: 2-1 Missouri Valley: 3-4 Mountain West: 1-1 Northeast: 4-1 Ohio Valley: 5-3 PAC 12: 0-2 SEC: 0-1 Southern: 3-0 Southland: 1-0 SWAC: 2-0 Summit: 2-0 Sunbelt: 1-3 WAC: 2-1 WCC: 3-2 Non DI: 20-0
It is, of course, extremely likely that the Horizon will be a 1 bid league again this year, although Green Bay could sneak into the at-large discussion with a very strong performance in the conference season.
It isn’t shocking that the league is down some, with the league’s top two players from a year ago, and 6 of 10 all-conference selections, leaving. Still, I would have to rank the non-conference season quite disappointing, with only Milwaukee really exceeding expectations and, at a minimum, Wright State and UIC falling short of expectations.
The league’s best wins at this point are probably: 1. Green Bay 75, Virginia 72. 2. Oakland 73, Ohio U. 58 (a dominating performance over a good MAC team) 3. Milwaukee 83, Northern Iowa 72. (NIU is only 5-6 but against a very tough schedule, including a win over VCU). 4. Detroit 65, @ South Florida 60 (road win over an AAC team) 5. Cleveland State 78, @ Kent State 70. (Road win over good MAC team)
That’s a pretty slim list. Trying to create a top 10 list was too depressing.
So it’s not a good year overall for the Horizon. But the conference race could be very exciting and wide open. I’ll review how the individual teams look entering that race in the next post.
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Post by Commissioner on Dec 31, 2013 12:16:07 GMT -5
Here are mid-season previews for the first 4 teams in the conference as predicted by the preseason media poll. (RPI and Sagarin ratings as of 12/31.)
Green Bay Record: 9-3 RPI: 65 Sagarin: 83 Best Win: Virginia. Worst Loss: @ Eastern Michigan. Green Bay was the preseason favorite of the Horizon media, if only barely – they actually got fewer first place votes than Wright State. But the Phoenix have lived up to that billing, and if anything have more clearly established themselves as the conference favorite.
Alec Brown remains an enigma, occasionally dominant (40 points against Fairfield), too often MIA, especially in big games (2 points, 1 rebound against Wisconsin; 9 points, 1 rebound against Virginia). But Kiefer Sykes has emerged as an early favorite for HL Player of the Year, averaging 19.5 point (3rd in the league) and 4.9 assists (2nd). He’s scored in double figure in every game so far. Jordan Fouse leads the league in rebounds at 8.6 per game, and Brown and Fouse are 1st and 3rd, respectively, in blocked shots. (Green Bay is second in the nation in blocks per game).
Greg Mays (9.7 points, 4.8 rebounds), Carrington Love (9.5 ppg), and Vince Garrett (8.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg) have provided scoring and rebounding depth, and freshman Ken Lowe has been a pleasant surprise, playing over 13 minutes per game and assuring little defensive fall-off when Brown is out of the game. Mays and Lowe are also in the top 10 in the league in blocked shots. With that strong a presence down low, it is not surprising that other teams tend to shoot poorly against the Phoenix. Green Bay is 39th nationally in field goal defense. They are also a very strong rebounding team (37th in the country in rebound percentage). As reinforcements, 6-7 forward Alfonzo McKinney should be ready for conference play after missing the non-conference season following surgery. Transfer Lamin Fulton gives them a serviceable back-up point guard.
Green Bay is, in my opinion, the only team with the capability of running away with the league title. Not saying they will, but they’re the only team that can. Green Bay also remains the Horizon’s one hope for NCAA at-large bid. The Phoenix are 9-3, and have one more non-conference game in January with Chicago State, which they should win. Unfortunately, three of their wins are against non-DI teams (Green Bay caught a bad break when a multi-team tournament was cancelled at the last moment, costing the Phoenix a couple of D-I road games they likely would have won and forcing the late substitution of D-II Northern Michigan. But they’ve got a win over Virginia, and their losses are respectable enough. Losing at Eastern Michigan is damaging but not damning (EMU, 7-4, currently has an RPI of 58). They lost to Wisconsin by 3, and lost in the Alaska Shootout to a very good Harvard team, after leading both games late. Had they won those two, they’d be strong at-large contenders. But they’re not dead yet. If they go, for example, 13-3 in league play, they’d be 23-6 overall (20-6 vs. D-I), and if they then lost in the Horizon tournament final they’d be 24-7, with a win over Virginia and probably with a top 50 RPI, and on the edge of the at-large discussion.
In any case, the clear Horizon favorite at this point.
Wright State Record: 8-7 RPI: 293 Sagarin: 199 Best Win: Bowling Green. Worst Loss: @ North Carolina A&T. I never liked Wright State as a favorite to win the league, and it’s always nice to be vindicated (if I’m not speaking too soon). Wright State’s performance is disappointing, but it probably shouldn’t be. This is the same Wright State team as last year – pretty much literally. Last year’s team, as I noted before the season started, was 6-0 in games decided by 3 points or less. Call it luck or call it clutch play, either way that type of performance is hard to sustain. This year, they are 1-2 so far in close games. Turn around those two losses and they’d be 10-5 – less than many expected but not so obviously below expectations, and nearly identical to last fall’s 9-4 non-conference mark against a similarly weak schedule.
The other reason I didn’t expect that much from Wright State is that they have everybody back. I remember one of my high school tennis teammates played D-I tennis. The summer after our freshman year of college I saw him and he told me his team had finished last, but “we have everybody back.” “Well, that’s kinda bad, isn’t it?” I asked. We tend to assume that teams with “everybody back” will get better, but it ain’t necessarily so. Most of WSU’s top players last year were juniors, not freshmen, and so there’s less likelihood of continued development. And with everybody back, it’s not like some player suddenly emerges with more playing time, or goes from being the #2 or #3 option to the #1 option.
Thus, Wright State looks very much the same as last year. Last year they had 8 players average between 5 points and 11.5 points per game. This year, they have 8 players averaging between 5 points and 11.5 points per game – and of course, those are mainly the same guys.
Last year folks looked at Wright State’s low-scoring games and assumed that they were a plodding, walk-it-up-the-floor squad, but that’s only half the story. The were a slow paced team, but the other reason for their low scores was an extremely inefficient offense coupled with a lock down defense. Wright State was 31st in the nation in defensive efficiency and 14th in forcing turnovers. This year’s team ranks about the same in pace and offensive efficiency, but the defensive efficiency has declined. Not a lot, but enough to make the difference in close games. They are still forcing the turnovers – 2nd in the nation – but their overall defensive efficiency has dropped from 31st to 73rd, while their offensive efficiency is essentially unchanged. They’re still a good defensive team, but for whatever reason not as good as last year.
In summary, despite the optimistic projections of Wright State fans and national media for a league title, followed the gritty reality of an 8-7 non-conference season against a pushover schedule, there really hasn’t been much change at Wright State. Last year they probably played a bit over their heads, and certainly they won the close games. This year, they may be playing slightly below their talent (a veteran team like this shouldn’t be 0-7 on the road) and they’re not winning all the close games. It’s little more than that. They’ve also had some nagging injuries and been without Tavares Sledge (although last year they missed Cole Darling for much of the season). In any case, Sledge is back, and Butler transfer Chrishawn Hopkins became eligible in mid-December and has now played in 4 games. Though his impact has been limited, the Raiders are 3-1 in those games. So those two will add to the depth of an already deep team.
The Raiders are a good team and should finish in the top half of the league. They could win the conference title, or the conference tournament, but more likely they’ll finish they’ll finish 2nd-5th and lose in the tournament, leaving them with about 18 wins total, and a probable CIT bid.
Cleveland State Record: 8-6 RPI: 127 Sagarin: 101 Best Win: @ Kent State. Worst Loss: @ San Francisco
Cleveland State has, rather quietly, played better than I think people realize. None of their losses are really bad – every team that has beaten them (Akron, Toledo, Kentucky, Drexel, Eastern Michigan, and San Francisco) is at least .500 against D-I opponents, four of the six are in the top 60 in RPI, and all but Akron were on the road. Nobody has blown them out. Their wins aren’t stunning either, but they include the road win at Kent State and a home victory over a solid Iona team.
Probably the biggest disappointment for CSU is that Anton Grady (9.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) has not been more dominant, but coming off an injury redshirt year it often takes some time to totally get in the swing of things. Nick Minnerath’s 2013 season, for example, didn’t take off until conference play. Also on the downside, JC transfer Ismaila Dauda has not been the inside factor some (including me) thought he might be, and Marlin Mason’s numbers are way down (from 8 points, 5.3 rebounds to 5.5 points, 3.7 rebounds).
But any disappointment there should be more than offset by the development of Bryn Forbes and the play of a pair of transfers, Trey Lewis and Jon Harris. The sophomore Forbes has established himself as one of the top shooting guards in the league. He is 4th in scoring at 17.6 ppg, and second to Travis Bader in total 3 pointers made. He is third in the conference in 3 point shooting pct, but with more than twice as many attempts as each of the two players ahead of him. If we raise the bar to true 3 point shooters – at least 75 attempts on the season - he’s 7th nationally in 3 point shooting percentage.
Harris, from Miami of Ohio, leads the team in rebounding while contributing nearly 10 points per game. He’s a remarkably consistent player, scoring between 8 and 15 points in 10 of 14 games, and grabbing between 5 and 8 rebounds in each of CSU’s first 12 games. He’s shooting over 50% from the floor and 70% from the line. Penn State transfer Lewis, meanwhile, is averaging 3.6 assists per game and is a more stable point guard than Charlie Lee, with fewer turnovers. A pleasant surprise has been Lewis’s scoring. He’s averaging 13.9 ppg.
Lewis play has actually increased the effectiveness of Charlie Lee, last year’s Horizon assist leader but a mercurial player who can be prone to turnovers. Sharing the point duties, Lee has dramatically reduced his turnovers. He remains an important part of the offense, hitting 40% of his three point attempts and averaging 9.9 ppg.
With Forbes bombing away, CSU is a better than average 3 point shooting team, and also effective at 3 point defense. But there’s not really anything CSU does that is outstanding. Nor, however, is there any glaring weakness. CSU has probably been the most consistent team in the league so far, and may be the most likely challenger to Green Bay for the conference title.
Oakland Record: 5-10 RPI: 149 Sagarin: 169 Best Win: Ohio U.; Worst Loss: @ Western Michigan
Oakland has had a rough year, with the unexpected departure of Ryan Bass, the loss of Raphael Carter and Jalen Hayes for the season to injuries, the brief suspensions of Duke Mondy and Dante Williams for an ugly incident involving a woman on the team’s California road trip, and a killer early season schedule that had them on the road for their first 7 games, and an 0-7 start. Next they’ve got a schedule that gives them 4 of their first 6 Horizon games on the road.
Meanwhile, Dayton transfer Ralph Hill has been a total dud, sophomore forward Lloyd Neely hasn’t stepped up to fill the void, and West Virginia transfer Tommie McCune (6.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, .398 FG%) has been less than a major force. OU has been left to rely on sophomore walk-on Mitch Baenziger as a major part of the rotation.
Despite all that, Oakland isn’t dead yet. The Grizzlies have won 5 of their last 8, losing only to a good Eastern Michigan team in overtime, to Michigan State by just 4 points, and to Indiana on the road. The wins have included a 73-56 thrashing of a good Ohio U. team and a 15 point victory over Illinois State, an MVC team that is otherwise undefeated since Thanksgiving.
OU remains a dangerous team. Duke Mondy leads the nation in steals, and Travis Bader (22.1 ppg) in 3 point field goals made (by a substantial margin), and that means it is hard to count OU out of a game. Freshman point guard Kahlil Felder has averaged over 5 assists per game and has a better than two to one assists/turnover ratio.
Oakland is a weak rebounding team, with no inside presence beyond the lumbering Corey Petros (13.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg), and a poor defensive team. But Kampe isn’t going to let this team fold. The 4th place preseason prediction still seems reasonable, though in the wide-open mash of teams chasing Green Bay anywhere from 2nd to 9th seems possible. There are too many weaknesses for me to see Oakland winning the Horizon regular season, but I can definitely see a hot Oakland team capturing the conference tournament and getting a first round NCAA rematch with Michigan State.
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Post by Commissioner on Dec 31, 2013 14:04:44 GMT -5
Here are teams 5-9 in the Horizon, per the preseason media poll.
Youngstown State Record: 9-6 RPI: 164 Sagarin: Best Win: vs. Eastern Kentucky (neutral court); Worst Loss: Austin Peay
What do you say about YSU? It is what it is, I guess.
Kendrick Perry is the best player in the Horizon, and he has improved from last year. His scoring (20.8 ppg) is up, his shooting percentage is up (52%), his assists (4.5 pg) are up, his turnovers are down, his steals are up (2.9 pg – 5th in the nation). He has scored in double figures, with at least 1 rebound and 1 assist, in every game.
There’s a tendency to say that whether YSU wins or loses depends on Perry, but I don’t think that’s right. Perry is the rock – the one thing YSU can always count on. But he’s not a dominant enough player to lift them to the top of the Horizon by himself. Whether they win or lose depends more on his supporting cast. And there is some talent there, but it is remarkably inconsistent.
The front line players - Bobby Hain (10.1 points, 7 rebounds), Kamren Belin (13.2/4.7), and Ryan Weber (10.1/4.2) are all talented but frustratingly inconsistent. So is freshman guard Marcus Keene (8.6 points, 2.7 assists), though he has the excuse that he’s a freshman. DJ Cole (7.9 points, 3.9 assists, 3-1 assist/turnover ratio) is steady at the point, but not a major offensive threat, and backup guard Shawn Amiker (6.3 points) is a solid role player. Amiker’s playing time has increased lately and he had a big game in YSU’s last outing, with 20 points and 7 rebounds in 18 minutes against South Dakota.
The end result is that YSU looks better on paper than the results on the court show. They are a good passing team, and you can’t sag off them because Perry, Belin, Weber, and Keene can all hit the three. This leads to good inside looks, a high shooting percentage, and a relatively efficient offense. With Perry, they essentially have two point guards on the floor at almost all times, and accordingly they have the best turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio in the league. The defense has been adequate. But you add it all up, and they’ve still got a terrible home loss to Austin Peay, a bad road loss to UMKC, and no particularly impressive win. Their six D-I conquests have a combined 21-52 W-L record.
YSU ought to be better, but there’s little indication they’re prepared to break out of the middle of the Horizon pack.
Valparaiso Record: 8-7 RPI: 161 Sagarin: 136 Best Win: Loyola Marymount; Worst Loss: @ Central Florida
Valpo has been about what I expected, but since I didn’t know what to expect, that’s not saying much. They are a good shooting team and they run the floor well, but a high turnover rate cuts deeply into their offensive efficiency. (They are 337th nationally in turnovers per possession). The December arrival of transfer Keith Carter was supposed to stabilize Valpo at the point, but so far Carter is averaging a rather high 2.3 turnovers in 20 minutes per game, and Valpo’s two worst losses – blowout road losses to Central Florida and East Tennessee State – have come in Carter’s three games. But as Carter shakes off the rust of a mid-season transfer, he should get better.
Meanwhile, LaVonte Dority is averaging 15.5 ppg and should be still more effective relieved of point duties. Freshman Alec Peters (14.3 points, team-best 5.3 rebounds) is a stud, albeit a turnover-prone stud, and the other touted freshmen – back-up point Lexus Williams and small forwards Jubril Adekoya and Clay Yeo, have all contributed.
As I suspected he would be, Alabama transfer Moussa Gueye has been something of a disappointment , but he and Vashil Fernandez form a solid presence in the middle, averaging a combined 9.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game. They also turn it over a lot. Jordan Coleman (10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds) and Bobby Capobianco (8.5/4.3) have done well enough, though more might have been expected, especially from Capobianco.
Valpo was playing its best ball of the season entering Christmas week, and looked like a possible contender, but suddenly looked horrible in losses to Central Florida and East Tennessee. Maybe working Carter into the rotation disturbed the team’s flow or something. If the last two games are just a brief lapse, to be corrected with the start of Horizon play, this team will contend. If they’re a harbinger of things to come, the Crusaders will struggle to keep their heads above water. And if it’s a lapse but one that will occur again, they’ll finish right around the preseason prediction of 6th place. And they’ve got to cut down on the turnovers (17 against CFU, 24 at ETSU).
UIC Record: 5-9 RPI: 242 Sagarin: 267 Best Win: @ Southeast Missouri State; Worst Loss: Eastern Illinois
Let’s see: losses to Eastern Illinois (#317 RPI) – at home, no less; Loyola (RPI #314), and Cal-Riverside (RPI #313). A 35 point loss to Northwestern. That’s tought to top. I didn’t expect a lot from UIC this year, but I expected a lot more than that.
UIC really has been that bad. They are no better than 6th in the Horizon in every statitistical category except defensive rebound percentage, which they lead in part because they are so poor at field goal percentage defense.
The bright spot has been Purdue transfer Kelsey Barlow, who has delivered 16.9 points, 4.6 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game. But UIC has been turnover prone, doesn’t shoot well, and doesn’t play good defense. That pretty well sums it up. The loss of junior center Will Simonton hasn’t helped, but that’s not really the problem.
To get better, UIC needs someone to emerge as a consistent scoring threat besides Barlow. Mark Brown is the most obvious candidate, but senior forward Hayden Humes’ production is also way down (from 10.3 to 6.9 points, and 5.2 to 3.5 rebounds). Brown is averaging 12.3 points on the year, but only 9.7 points over the last 11 games.
I think UIC is capable of playing better. They dominated Illinois for a half on a neutral floor, and led that game well into the second half. They played very respectable games in narrow losses to Drake (8-3, RPI 68) and SMU (10-2, RPI 62). But if they can’t find some consistency and a second threat on offense, it will be a struggle to stay out of the conference cellar.
Detroit Record: 7-8 RPI: 174 Sagarin: 184 Best Win: @ South Florida; Worst Loss: Stony Brook
Detroit, like Valpo, lost pretty much everything from a year ago. The Titans are basically a “win ugly” team that has played well in stretches (winning at South Florida, a 3 point loss at NC State, blowing out Toledo and Akron for a half) and very poorly in stretches (getting blown out by Toledo and Akron in the second half, the worst loss in the school’s 105 year basketball history at Connecticut).
Much was expected this year from sophomore transfer Carlton Brundidge (8.5 ppg). Too much, in fact. After what amounts to a two year layoff, Brundidge has struggled and looked more like a typical freshman (which he essentially is) than a top 100 recruit (which he was in high school). Fortunately, the Titans have benefited from the play of two unheralded freshman guard recruits, Jarod Williams (8.1 ppg, a team best 2.5 apg) and Matthew Grant (8.3 ppg).
Meantime, veteran forwards Juwan Howard (17.4 points, 6.1 rebounds) and Evan Bruinsma (11.3/8.3) have carried the team. At center, Ugochukwu Njoku is not an offensive threat but he’s among the league leaders in rebounds and blocks. Think of him as Moussa Gueye without the high expectations and fewer turnovers. 6-7 jc transfer Patrick Onwenu has lacked consistency. Sophomore Anton Wilson (8.6 ppg), a top 150 recruit in high school, had a very slow start but seems to have finally found his role on the team, averaging 15 points over the last 4 games while shooting 17 of 32 from three-point range.
As the great Titan Reggie says repeatedly, these Titans have to be on all the time to win. They are too green and have too many weaknesses to win without playing 100% all the time. A second division finish is, unfortunately, the most likely result for this club. But the Titans probably have as high a potential ceiling, vis a vis where they are now, as any team in the league. They’ll win some games and in what is (can we say this enough) a wide open league could do well. The Titans get 3 of their first 4 conference games at home, and a fast start is essential to their chances.
Milwaukee Record: 10-4 RPI: 107 Sagarin: 146 Best Win: Northern Iowa. Worst Loss: @ Loyola.
Milwaukee is this year’s Wright State. A near unanimous pick to finish last (including by this humble chronicler), the Panthers have parlayed a weak non-conference schedule and some surprisingly good ball into the best non-conference record in the Horizon. (They are also the only team in the conference that has not played at least two non-DI games).
A key part of the Panthers success has been a couple of transfers. Matt Tiby (from the jc ranks) leads the team in scoring (14.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.8 rpg). Steve McWhorter, from Indiana State, leads the team in assists (3.5 pg) while allowing Jordan Aaron (12 ppg) to play the #2 slot, where he is more effective. Senior forward Kyle Kelm (13.8 points, 5.1 rebounds) is a candidate for most improved player in the league, but so is sophomore small forward Austin Arians (12.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg).
The Panthers are thin - sophomore forward JJ Panoske and senior guard Thierno Niang are the only other players averaging over 10 minutes per game, and Niang is injury prone, having missed 5 games this year and 18 last year. Milwaukee has a couple of really bad losses on its resume – at Loyola, and to Northeastern last week on a neutral court. Their wins are a motley bunch – besides Northern Iowa, they include the likes of Alabama State, Judson College, UMKC, San Jose State, and Northern Illinois – but wins they are. Milwaukee shoots well, which is always nice, and defends the perimeter extremely well. I still don’t take Milwaukee for a real threat to win the league, but like Wright State last year, I wouldn’t be shocked if they notch 9 conference wins and an upper division finish.
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