Post by Commissioner on Jan 1, 2015 19:21:20 GMT -5
With Conference play beginning in less than 24 hours, let's take a brief review.
It's been a tough non-con season for the Horizon. The league is currently 14th in Conference RPI, but 19th in W-L Percentage (D-I games only). The 47-63 non-con record will now start recycling through each team's opponents' W-L record in each league game, and as opponent's W-L is the largest component of RPI, this will drag the league's RPI steadily down. RPI Forecast predicts a #18 finish for the conference, the lowest in a long, long time.
Here is the conference breakdown in games by opponent's RPI:
1-50: 0-12
51-100: 3-15
101-150: 9-13
151-200: 6-9
201-250: 6-5
251-300: 9-6
300+ : 14-3
Non-DI: 19-0
Here are the Horizon breakdowns:
Best Wins:
1. Green Bay @ Miami
2. Green Bay vs. Georgia State
3. Wright State @ Belmont
4. Green Bay vs. Evansville (N)
5. Valparaiso vs. Portland (N)
6. Wright State vs. Belmont
7. Valparaiso vs. Murray State (N)
8. Detroit @ Toledo
9. Valparaiso @ Eastern Kentucky
10. Green Bay @ Florida Gulf Coast
Predictions
Green Bay
The Phoenix have a road win at Miami, split a home and home with a good mid-major, Georgia State, and beat Evansville on a neutral floor and Florida Gulf Coast on the road. Wisconsin and the road loss at Georgia State wouldn't look too bad except that both losses were by more than 20 points. And it hurt when the Phoenix lost out in Vegas to Cal-Irvine.
The Phoenix are clearly the team to beat. Everyone is healthy, Kiefer Sykes is playing well, Alfonso McKinney has really helped up front. The Phoenix would be a contender for at large bid if they get through the Conference season with no more than 2 losses, and they're a pretty good bet to do that.
Valparaiso
Valpo is the one school that has really exceeded pre-season expectations, and those expectations were pretty good to start with. The Crusaders' losses are to a couple of mediocre high majors, Missouri and New Mexico. They were held to under 50 points in each and lost by 15 and 17 points, respectively. They've got some solid wins, but nothing special - Murray State and Portland in Nashville, a road win at Eastern Kentucky. With a big conference season, they could be in consideration for an at-large NCAA bid if they lose in the tournament, but they're the kind of team that, even if that happens, could have really benefitted from the old Bracket Busters. Valpo opens at Oakland on Friday, and their next three are at home. Their season is then likely to be made or broken the last two weaks in January, when they play 5 straight on the road, including Green Bay.
Sophomore forward Alec Peters is averaging 19 points and the Walker non-brothers, freshman Tevonn and juco transfer Darien, have emerged as legit scoring threats out of the backcourt. Vashil Fernandez is doing what was expected - getting rebounds and blocking shots - and Keith Carter is holding his own at the point in the absence of Lexus Williams. This is pretty simple - if teams don't catch Valpo this year, they're going to be really hard to catch the next couple years.
Wright State
At this point I'd predict Wright State to finish 3rd, simply because they're the only remaining team (except perhaps Youngstown State) which hasn't really sucked the last few weeks. The high point of their resume is a sweep of the home & home with Belmont. Their worst loss is to Cal-State Fullerton at a tournament in South Carolina-Upstate. There's not much else positive in their resume, although beating USC-Upstate on the road may be a bit of a sleeper win.
Joe Thomasson, the juco transfer, has been as good as I thought he'd be (11.9 points, 5.9 rebounds per game) but the real story has been the emergence of junior forward JT Yoho (16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds) as a consistent performer and scorer. Freshman Grant Benzinger has also been a pleasant surprise.
Right now WSU is ailing - forward Steve Davis will miss Friday's opener against Detroit, and it is said that Chrishawn Hopkins has the flu, Reggie Arceneaux a broken bone in his foot, and Joe Thomasson has banged up his knee. If the banged up Raiders lose to Detroit, they then face a tough schedule layout - road games at Green Bay and Youngstown, then home games but against Cleveland State and Valpo, and then 3 more on the road, Green Bay at home, and finally Cleveland State on the road. If they get through all that in reasonable shape, they could close strong, with 4 of the next 5 at home and then close at UIC.
Cleveland State:
After Wright State, the league really looks a mess. I'll put the Vikes 5th because I think they've still got the talent that made them a popular pre-season favorite. But the truth is that they've done nothing to back that up. Indeed, they've got two of the worst losses of any conference team, at 3-9, #304 RPI Savannah State, and at home to Eastern Illinois. Their best win is a home win over #194 RPI San Francisco. Except for Trey Lewis, pretty much everyone has disappointed.
Detroit
Can the Titans really be as bad as they've been playing? Obviously, I don't think so, or I'd drop them even further. But the bottom line is that sophomore guards Jarod Williams and Matthew Grant really haven't improved, transfer Patrick Ackerman has disappointed, Patrick Onwenu is injured, and the team just can't find any rhythm. Still, we've got Juwan Howard, and like Cleveland State, on paper the talent looks better. The Titans have a favorable early conference schedule, and will need to make their mark early. After Wright State on Friday, they've got Oakland and Milwaukee at home, then UIC on the road.
Oakland
Tough to know what to do with Oakland. They played their Kampe Murderers' Row non-con, and of course did little more than pile up a bunch of losses. But they do have a win over Toledo, and played Pittsburgh to overtime. Kahlil Felder remains a dynamic if somewhat turnover prone point guard, and Corey Petros is still one of if not the best big man in the league. Felder leads the nation in minutes per game, and Petros is 14th. Can they hold up? Tommie McCune and Dante Williams have played well enough at forward, and Nick Daniels has come off another injury to add at least a little depth in the backcourt. Like Detroit, Oakland needs to make its move early - 5 of the Grizzlies first 7 conference games are at home.
Youngstown State
YSU has no good non-con wins - a road win at #227 Robert Morris and a home win over #199 Northern Kentucky are the best - but their losses aren't bad either, except for a stinker home loss to Kenessaw State. They took Illinois State to OT in Normal, and were competitive against a trio of pretty good MAC clubs - Kent, EMU, and CMU. Marcus Keene is scoring (16.9 ppg), Bobby Hain is playing great, Shawn Amiker is playing well. No depth and no defense, but they just don't strike me as an awful team.
Their conference play opens with 4 of 5 on the road, including Green Bay and Valpo, so a bad conference start is likely, but maybe they'll be able to sneak up on people later in the year.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee fans were really upset with me for raking their team over the coals in my preseason previews, but I think I've been pretty well vindicated. Their loss to SIU-Edwardsville is probably the worst of any Horizon team so far this year. They have no wins over teams with RPIs below 200, and are winless in true road games. They enter the conference season reeling, with 5 losses in 6 games. That includes a 22 point loss at Depaul, a 39 point loss to Wisconsin, a 30 point loss at Arkansas, and a 24 point loss to South Dakota. It's not the names on the jerseys, but the margins that are depressing. McWhorter and Tiby and pretty good players and the Panthers could yet stabilize the situation. Right now they, Detroit, and Cleveland State seem to be battling it out for the most lost at sea team in the conference.
UIC
Just a horrible team, but they've got enough to be dangerous at home and I don't expect a repeat of last year's 1 win season. Jake Wiegand has played well.
Non-Conference All Conference Teams
First Team:
F - Alec Peters, Valparaiso
F - Juwan Howard, Detroit
C - Bobby Hain, Youngstown
G - Trey Lewis, Cleveland State
G - Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay
Second Team:
F - JT Yoho, Wright State
F - Jake Wiegand, UIC
C - Corey Petros, Oakland
G - Kahlil Felder, Oakland
G - Steve McWhorter, Milwaukee
All Freshman Team
F - Paris Bass, Detroit
C - Tai Odiase, UIC
G - Grant Benzinger, Wright State
G - Tevonn Walker, Valparaiso
G - Nick Daniels, Oakland
POY: Alec Peters, Valparaiso
Freshman of Year: Paris Bass, Detroit
Defensive POY: Jordan Fouse, Green Bay
It's been a tough non-con season for the Horizon. The league is currently 14th in Conference RPI, but 19th in W-L Percentage (D-I games only). The 47-63 non-con record will now start recycling through each team's opponents' W-L record in each league game, and as opponent's W-L is the largest component of RPI, this will drag the league's RPI steadily down. RPI Forecast predicts a #18 finish for the conference, the lowest in a long, long time.
Here is the conference breakdown in games by opponent's RPI:
1-50: 0-12
51-100: 3-15
101-150: 9-13
151-200: 6-9
201-250: 6-5
251-300: 9-6
300+ : 14-3
Non-DI: 19-0
Here are the Horizon breakdowns:
Team | W-L | RPI | Sagarin | Pomeroy |
Green Bay | 11-3 | 46 | 58 | 55 |
Valparaiso | 13-2 | 70 | 60 | 78 |
Wright State | 8-6 | 112 | 162 | 148 |
Oakland | 4-10 | 195 | 226 | 199 |
Detroit | 6-8 | 198 | 181 | 170 |
Youngstown State | 9-6 | 199 | 208 | 235 |
Cleveland State | 6-8 | 207 | 156 | 136 |
UIC | 4-11 | 281 | 314 | 316 |
Milwaukee | 5-9 | 291 | 295 | 266 |
Best Wins:
1. Green Bay @ Miami
2. Green Bay vs. Georgia State
3. Wright State @ Belmont
4. Green Bay vs. Evansville (N)
5. Valparaiso vs. Portland (N)
6. Wright State vs. Belmont
7. Valparaiso vs. Murray State (N)
8. Detroit @ Toledo
9. Valparaiso @ Eastern Kentucky
10. Green Bay @ Florida Gulf Coast
Predictions
Green Bay
The Phoenix have a road win at Miami, split a home and home with a good mid-major, Georgia State, and beat Evansville on a neutral floor and Florida Gulf Coast on the road. Wisconsin and the road loss at Georgia State wouldn't look too bad except that both losses were by more than 20 points. And it hurt when the Phoenix lost out in Vegas to Cal-Irvine.
The Phoenix are clearly the team to beat. Everyone is healthy, Kiefer Sykes is playing well, Alfonso McKinney has really helped up front. The Phoenix would be a contender for at large bid if they get through the Conference season with no more than 2 losses, and they're a pretty good bet to do that.
Valparaiso
Valpo is the one school that has really exceeded pre-season expectations, and those expectations were pretty good to start with. The Crusaders' losses are to a couple of mediocre high majors, Missouri and New Mexico. They were held to under 50 points in each and lost by 15 and 17 points, respectively. They've got some solid wins, but nothing special - Murray State and Portland in Nashville, a road win at Eastern Kentucky. With a big conference season, they could be in consideration for an at-large NCAA bid if they lose in the tournament, but they're the kind of team that, even if that happens, could have really benefitted from the old Bracket Busters. Valpo opens at Oakland on Friday, and their next three are at home. Their season is then likely to be made or broken the last two weaks in January, when they play 5 straight on the road, including Green Bay.
Sophomore forward Alec Peters is averaging 19 points and the Walker non-brothers, freshman Tevonn and juco transfer Darien, have emerged as legit scoring threats out of the backcourt. Vashil Fernandez is doing what was expected - getting rebounds and blocking shots - and Keith Carter is holding his own at the point in the absence of Lexus Williams. This is pretty simple - if teams don't catch Valpo this year, they're going to be really hard to catch the next couple years.
Wright State
At this point I'd predict Wright State to finish 3rd, simply because they're the only remaining team (except perhaps Youngstown State) which hasn't really sucked the last few weeks. The high point of their resume is a sweep of the home & home with Belmont. Their worst loss is to Cal-State Fullerton at a tournament in South Carolina-Upstate. There's not much else positive in their resume, although beating USC-Upstate on the road may be a bit of a sleeper win.
Joe Thomasson, the juco transfer, has been as good as I thought he'd be (11.9 points, 5.9 rebounds per game) but the real story has been the emergence of junior forward JT Yoho (16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds) as a consistent performer and scorer. Freshman Grant Benzinger has also been a pleasant surprise.
Right now WSU is ailing - forward Steve Davis will miss Friday's opener against Detroit, and it is said that Chrishawn Hopkins has the flu, Reggie Arceneaux a broken bone in his foot, and Joe Thomasson has banged up his knee. If the banged up Raiders lose to Detroit, they then face a tough schedule layout - road games at Green Bay and Youngstown, then home games but against Cleveland State and Valpo, and then 3 more on the road, Green Bay at home, and finally Cleveland State on the road. If they get through all that in reasonable shape, they could close strong, with 4 of the next 5 at home and then close at UIC.
Cleveland State:
After Wright State, the league really looks a mess. I'll put the Vikes 5th because I think they've still got the talent that made them a popular pre-season favorite. But the truth is that they've done nothing to back that up. Indeed, they've got two of the worst losses of any conference team, at 3-9, #304 RPI Savannah State, and at home to Eastern Illinois. Their best win is a home win over #194 RPI San Francisco. Except for Trey Lewis, pretty much everyone has disappointed.
Detroit
Can the Titans really be as bad as they've been playing? Obviously, I don't think so, or I'd drop them even further. But the bottom line is that sophomore guards Jarod Williams and Matthew Grant really haven't improved, transfer Patrick Ackerman has disappointed, Patrick Onwenu is injured, and the team just can't find any rhythm. Still, we've got Juwan Howard, and like Cleveland State, on paper the talent looks better. The Titans have a favorable early conference schedule, and will need to make their mark early. After Wright State on Friday, they've got Oakland and Milwaukee at home, then UIC on the road.
Oakland
Tough to know what to do with Oakland. They played their Kampe Murderers' Row non-con, and of course did little more than pile up a bunch of losses. But they do have a win over Toledo, and played Pittsburgh to overtime. Kahlil Felder remains a dynamic if somewhat turnover prone point guard, and Corey Petros is still one of if not the best big man in the league. Felder leads the nation in minutes per game, and Petros is 14th. Can they hold up? Tommie McCune and Dante Williams have played well enough at forward, and Nick Daniels has come off another injury to add at least a little depth in the backcourt. Like Detroit, Oakland needs to make its move early - 5 of the Grizzlies first 7 conference games are at home.
Youngstown State
YSU has no good non-con wins - a road win at #227 Robert Morris and a home win over #199 Northern Kentucky are the best - but their losses aren't bad either, except for a stinker home loss to Kenessaw State. They took Illinois State to OT in Normal, and were competitive against a trio of pretty good MAC clubs - Kent, EMU, and CMU. Marcus Keene is scoring (16.9 ppg), Bobby Hain is playing great, Shawn Amiker is playing well. No depth and no defense, but they just don't strike me as an awful team.
Their conference play opens with 4 of 5 on the road, including Green Bay and Valpo, so a bad conference start is likely, but maybe they'll be able to sneak up on people later in the year.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee fans were really upset with me for raking their team over the coals in my preseason previews, but I think I've been pretty well vindicated. Their loss to SIU-Edwardsville is probably the worst of any Horizon team so far this year. They have no wins over teams with RPIs below 200, and are winless in true road games. They enter the conference season reeling, with 5 losses in 6 games. That includes a 22 point loss at Depaul, a 39 point loss to Wisconsin, a 30 point loss at Arkansas, and a 24 point loss to South Dakota. It's not the names on the jerseys, but the margins that are depressing. McWhorter and Tiby and pretty good players and the Panthers could yet stabilize the situation. Right now they, Detroit, and Cleveland State seem to be battling it out for the most lost at sea team in the conference.
UIC
Just a horrible team, but they've got enough to be dangerous at home and I don't expect a repeat of last year's 1 win season. Jake Wiegand has played well.
Non-Conference All Conference Teams
First Team:
F - Alec Peters, Valparaiso
F - Juwan Howard, Detroit
C - Bobby Hain, Youngstown
G - Trey Lewis, Cleveland State
G - Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay
Second Team:
F - JT Yoho, Wright State
F - Jake Wiegand, UIC
C - Corey Petros, Oakland
G - Kahlil Felder, Oakland
G - Steve McWhorter, Milwaukee
All Freshman Team
F - Paris Bass, Detroit
C - Tai Odiase, UIC
G - Grant Benzinger, Wright State
G - Tevonn Walker, Valparaiso
G - Nick Daniels, Oakland
POY: Alec Peters, Valparaiso
Freshman of Year: Paris Bass, Detroit
Defensive POY: Jordan Fouse, Green Bay