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Post by Commissioner on Sept 13, 2019 8:56:52 GMT -5
Who is the mystery 4th team for the MGM Main Even Middleweight Division? At this point, the most likely scenario, and what I glean from the Titans published schedule, is that the three teams committed--UD, UC-Irvine, and Louisiana--play a round robin, with 1 game on each of the 24th, 25th, and 26th. Otherwise, here are the schools that are not committed to an exempt event, have not released their schedules, and have the proper dates (Nov 24-26) still open from what we know of their schedules. (When you have too much time on your hands, you do these sorts of things.) Idaho State Northern Arizona Manhattan Marist St. Peter's Siena Fresno State St. Francis, PA Western Illinois Winthrop Theoretical but Highly unlikelySacramento State (plays at Pepperdine Nov. 23) Charlotte (plays at Georgia State Nov. 27) Iona (plays in Lakeland, Florida on Nov. 23) Army (plays at Binghamton, Nov. 23) Lehigh (plays at St. Mary's (CA), Nov. 23) Or they drag in some D-II program. Will there be a 4th team added to the Vegas event? It'll be odd if not--they'll have one game on the 25th of November between two "middleweights," sandwiched between 3 games on the 24th and 26th. And two of the "heavyweight" squads, Clemson and Colorado, have open dates. (In Colorado's case, just 1--they released a 30-game schedule this week that includes a game with UC-Irvine. So one game would fill out both their MGM 4 game exempt possibility and a full 31 game schedule.) However, as near as I can tell, there are now just 2 teams from in the country that are not in an exempt event, have the right dates open, and are not playing on the 23rd or 27th--Northern Arizona and Fresno State. I wonder if Fresno would agree to be in the "middleweight" division when their conference partner, Wyoming, is a "heavyweight," and Fresno will very likely be the better team this year. In theory, a couple of the squads from my "highly unlikely" category are still out there, but remain highly unlikely--is Lehigh or Iona gonna play on the 23rd and then fly to Vegas to play on the 24th? Sacramento State would be the most likely, with "only" a 5 hour drive from Pepperdine to Vegas, and no time zone change, but beyond that still unlikely probability, they've already got a game scheduled with Colorado, according to the latter's schedule, which makes it highly unlikely that they'll schedule a second home game with Sacramento State, which would be necessary to fill the empty slot on the Buffalos schedule. Charlotte could definitely fit if, say, the Georgia State game were moved a day or two, to the 28th or 29th of November, both of which are open for both teams. Well, it won't affect us much if they do add a 4th team--it just means we'll definitely play one of UCI/Louisiana and have a 50% chance of facing the other, or substituting some other team.
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 13, 2019 14:12:00 GMT -5
Who is the mystery 4th team for the MGM Main Even Middleweight Division? At this point, the most likely scenario, and what I glean from the Titans published schedule, is that the three teams committed--UD, UC-Irvine, and Louisiana--play a round robin, with 1 game on each of the 24th, 25th, and 26th. Otherwise, here are the schools that are not committed to an exempt event, have not released their schedules, and have the proper dates (Nov 24-26) still open from what we know of their schedules. (When you have too much time on your hands, you do these sorts of things.) Idaho State Northern Arizona Manhattan Marist St. Peter's Siena Fresno State St. Francis, PA Western Illinois Winthrop Theoretical but Highly unlikelySacramento State (plays at Pepperdine Nov. 23) Charlotte (plays at Georgia State Nov. 27) Iona (plays in Lakeland, Florida on Nov. 23) Army (plays at Binghamton, Nov. 23) Lehigh (plays at St. Mary's (CA), Nov. 23) Or they drag in some D-II program. Will there be a 4th team added to the Vegas event? It'll be odd if not--they'll have one game on the 25th of November between two "middleweights," sandwiched between 3 games on the 24th and 26th. And two of the "heavyweight" squads, Clemson and Colorado, have open dates. (In Colorado's case, just 1--they released a 30-game schedule this week that includes a game with UC-Irvine. So one game would fill out both their MGM 4 game exempt possibility and a full 31 game schedule.) However, as near as I can tell, there are now just 2 teams from in the country that are not in an exempt event, have the right dates open, and are not playing on the 23rd or 27th--Northern Arizona and Fresno State. I wonder if Fresno would agree to be in the "middleweight" division when their conference partner, Wyoming, is a "heavyweight," and Fresno will very likely be the better team this year. In theory, a couple of the squads from my "highly unlikely" category are still out there, but remain highly unlikely--is Lehigh or Iona gonna play on the 23rd and then fly to Vegas to play on the 24th? Sacramento State would be the most likely, with "only" a 5 hour drive from Pepperdine to Vegas, and no time zone change, but beyond that still unlikely probability, they've already got a game scheduled with Colorado, according to the latter's schedule, which makes it highly unlikely that they'll schedule a second home game with Sacramento State, which would be necessary to fill the empty slot on the Buffalos schedule. Charlotte could definitely fit if, say, the Georgia State game were moved a day or two, to the 28th or 29th of November, both of which are open for both teams. Well, it won't affect us much if they do add a 4th team--it just means we'll definitely play one of UCI/Louisiana and have a 50% chance of facing the other, or substituting some other team. Thanks for doing the digging on that, Commissioner.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Sept 13, 2019 14:43:33 GMT -5
FWIW, Detroit Mercy and Irvine’s schedules both show they will be in Vegas on 11/24 and 11/26, Louisiana’s schedule on their website has them playing on consecutive nights, 11/25 and 11/26. So something is not right. If there were just three teams involved, the matchups to give each school two games could be: 11/24 Detroit v. Irvine 11/25 Irvine v. Louisiana 11/26 Detroit v. Louisiana or 11/24 Detroit v. Irvine 11/25 Detroit v. Louisiana 11/26 Irvine v. Louisiana But then either Detroit or Irvine’s posted dates are wrong. At link, information about Cox Pavilion, the facility tournament will take place: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox_Pavilion
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 16, 2019 5:17:09 GMT -5
NC State schedule was released. LinkWe play them at PNC Arena five days after they play Georgia Tech in their first ACC game.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Sept 16, 2019 13:57:19 GMT -5
A Tweet I saw this afternoon from the Horizon League suggests the conference schedule will be released sometime tomorrow.
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 17, 2019 9:34:34 GMT -5
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 17, 2019 11:04:15 GMT -5
We play at Oakland on December 28th and then Gonzaga on Dec 30.
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 17, 2019 11:11:02 GMT -5
It will be a tough start to conference play for the Titans--at Oakland on December 28, then to the west coast for Gonzaga on December 30, back for a home stand against the two preseason favorites, Northern Kentucky on January 3 and Wright State on January 5. That's followed by 4 straight road games. To sum that up, that's 5 of the first 7 on the road, with the two home games against the conference favorites.
The obvious flipside is that it gets easier, with 7 of the last 11 at home.
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 17, 2019 11:14:43 GMT -5
12/28 at Oakland
1/3 - NKU
1/5 - Wright St
1/9 - at Cleveland St
1/11 - at Youngstown St
1/16 - at Milwaukee
1/18 - at Green Bay
1/23 - IUPUI
1/25 - UIC
1/31 - Oakland
2/6 - at Wright St
2/8 - at NKU
2/13 - Youngstown St
2/15 - Cleveland St
2/21 - Green Bay
2/23 - Milwaukee
2/27 - at UIC
2/29 - at IUPUI
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 17, 2019 11:21:00 GMT -5
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 17, 2019 11:33:36 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner on Sept 18, 2019 10:23:31 GMT -5
Hope for the best, expect the worst:
Are we ready for the worst? Titans lose on the road to superior ACC teams, NC State and Clemson, to start season. Wyoming is very beatable but it's on the road 2 days after Clemson. Hop on the plane, cross two time zones, play a game that will be ending around 11 pm EST. Titans lose that one. Then it's to Vegas for two solid mid-majors, Cal-Irvine (winner of 31 games a year ago, favorite in the Big West) and Louisiana. Say we lose the first and barely the second. Suddenly we're 0-5. We return to the midwest to play a couple of decent MAC teams on the road. At home, I like our odds. But at Ohio and Kent State, say we lose two more close ones. 0-7.
Finally, we beat Eastern at home for a win, but fall at Notre Dame 72 hours later. Then it's two more home games, but the opponents are CAA favorite Northeastern and MAC favorite Toledo, and we're trying to add two big guys to the team, with the disruption that can cause. Suddenly we're 1-10. We pocket a home win over SIU-E and we're 2-10 entering conference play.
Now we take on Oakland on the road. Tough game. 2-11.
Then at Gonzaga. 2-12.
Finally, we return to Horizon with home games against the conference favorites, Wright State and Northern Kentucky. 2-14.
Are we ready for a 2-14 start?
I think we'll do better, but I don't think this is at all beyond the realm of possibility. And I'll add that if that happens, we need to avoid panic. First, the schedule gets easier. Second, either we're not in post-season play, so this is a year to build, or we are, so we've still got the conference tournament. If you look further, I see no reason that we couldn't go 9-6 (or better, but I'm expecting the worst, right?) the rest of the regular season. The big thing this year is meaningful progress. But there's a good chance that even though we're making progress, it won't show up in the W-L record, certainly not through the first week of January.
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Post by motorcitysam on Sept 18, 2019 13:13:20 GMT -5
Hope for the best, expect the worst: Are we ready for the worst? Titans lose on the road to superior ACC teams, NC State and Clemson, to start season. Wyoming is very beatable but it's on the road 2 days after Clemson. Hop on the plane, cross two time zones, play a game that will be ending around 11 pm EST. Titans lose that one. Then it's to Vegas for two solid mid-majors, Cal-Irvine (winner of 31 games a year ago, favorite in the Big West) and Louisiana. Say we lose the first and barely the second. Suddenly we're 0-5. We return to the midwest to play a couple of decent MAC teams on the road. At home, I like our odds. But at Ohio and Kent State, say we lose two more close ones. 0-7. Finally, we beat Eastern at home for a win, but fall at Notre Dame 72 hours later. Then it's two more home games, but the opponents are CAA favorite Northeastern and MAC favorite Toledo, and we're trying to add two big guys to the team, with the disruption that can cause. Suddenly we're 1-10. We pocket a home win over SIU-E and we're 2-10 entering conference play. Now we take on Oakland on the road. Tough game. 2-11. Then at Gonzaga. 2-12. Finally, we return to Horizon with home games against the conference favorites, Wright State and Northern Kentucky. 2-14. Are we ready for a 2-14 start? I think we'll do better, but I don't think this is at all beyond the realm of possibility. And I'll add that if that happens, we need to avoid panic. First, the schedule gets easier. Second, either we're not in post-season play, so this is a year to build, or we are, so we've still got the conference tournament. If you look further, I see no reason that we couldn't go 9-6 (or better, but I'm expecting the worst, right?) the rest of the regular season. The big thing this year is meaningful progress. But there's a good chance that even though we're making progress, it won't show up in the W-L record, certainly not through the first week of January. A sobering analysis, yet one grounded in reality. Could be a tough start.
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 18, 2019 13:54:05 GMT -5
We, as fans, have to accept the fact that Coach Davis does not care what our non-conference record is because, as long as the HL remains a one-bid league, his objective is to get the team ready to succeed in the HL. The best team in the HL is not going to be seeded above #14 anyway. In 2017, NKU was a 15 seed. In 2018, Wright State was a 15 seed. Last NKU was a 14 seed.
Wright State could win 27 games this season and the HL tourney and not be more than 14 seed.
So, the coaches think that givent hose initial odds, we need to get back into the tournament, then we can make our statement.
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Post by ptctitan on Sept 18, 2019 14:32:01 GMT -5
We're playing Cal Irvine on Nov 24 and Louisiana on Nov 25. Both games at 3 pm.
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