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Post by Commissioner on Mar 7, 2022 9:49:52 GMT -5
I see that Lunardi now has CSU playing in the play-in game in the NCAA in his bracket, as of today. Frankly, this would be better than just being a regular 16th seed--as was noted somewhere in another thread by Rogo or someone, you get a full share for winning the play-in game. In other words, if CSU (or whomever wins the HL tournament) is in the playoff game and wins it before getting blitzed by Gonzaga, the Horizon gets 2 revenue shares; if we're not in the play in game and just get blitzed in the first round by Duke, the Horizon just gets 1 share. I'll take the chance at a second share and the ability to claim a tournament win against the embarrassment of being in the play-in game. (And how did it come to this?--Not that long ago HL winners were routinely seeded 9th-12th.)
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 7, 2022 10:06:18 GMT -5
Bids Earned so Far:
NCAA Murray State (OVC Auto): 30-2, #23 NET Loyola (MVC Auto): 25-7, #25 NET Longwood (Big South Auto): 26-6, #123 NET
NIT Northern Iowa (MVC Auto): 20-11, #102 NET Texas State (Sunbelt Auto): 21-7, #125 NET
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 7, 2022 23:58:32 GMT -5
Bids Earned through 3/7, with W-L record and NET rank:
NCAA Murray State (OVC Auto): 30-2, #23 Loyola (MVC Auto): 25-7, #25 Longwood (Big South Auto): 26-6, #123 Chattanooga (Southern Auto): 27-7, #61 Georgia State (Sunbelt Auto): 18-10, #168
NIT Northern Iowa (MVC Auto): 20-11, #102 Texas State (Sunbelt Auto): 21-7, #125 Cleveland State (Horizon Auto): 20-10, #175 Towson (CAA Auto): 25-8, #64
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 8, 2022 23:02:04 GMT -5
Bids Earned through 3/8, with W-L record and NET rank:
NCAA Murray State (OVC): 30-2, #23 Loyola (MVC): 25-7, #24 Longwood (Big South): 26-6, #123 Chattanooga (Southern): 27-7, #60 Georgia State (Sunbelt): 18-10, #159 Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun): 22-10, #139 Wright State (Horizon): 20-13. #193 Delaware (CAA): 21-12, #136 Bryant (NEC): 22-9, #215 South Dakota State (Summit): 30-4, #64 Gonzaga (WCC): 26-3, #1
NIT Northern Iowa (MVC): 20-11, #102 Texas State (Sunbelt): 21-7, #128 Cleveland State (Horizon): 20-10, #184 Towson (CAA): 25-8, #73
CBI VMI: 16-15, #163.
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 9, 2022 21:46:47 GMT -5
Only one team clinched a bid tonight, with Colgate keelhauling the Navy to win the Patriot League bid. Of interest to Titan fans, Youngstown State has accepted a bid to the Basketball Classic (nee CIT).
Bids Earned through 3/9, with W-L record and NET rank:
NCAA Murray State (OVC): 30-2, #23 Loyola (MVC): 25-7, #25 Longwood (Big South): 26-6, #123 Chattanooga (Southern): 27-7, #62 Georgia State (Sunbelt): 18-10, #158 Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun): 22-10, #139 Wright State (Horizon): 20-13. #192 Delaware (CAA): 21-12, #135 Bryant (NEC): 22-9, #215 South Dakota State (Summit): 30-4, #64 Gonzaga (WCC): 26-3, #1 Colgate (Patriot): 23-11, #131
NIT Northern Iowa (MVC): 20-11, #102 Texas State (Sunbelt): 21-7, #127 Cleveland State (Horizon): 20-10, #185 Towson (CAA): 25-8, #74 Iona (MAAC): 25-7, #90.
CBI VMI: 16-15, #162. UNC-Ashville: 16-14, #224 UNC-Wilmington: 23-9, #177
Basketball Classic Youngstown State: 17-14, #248 Appalachian State: 19-14, #159 Florida Gulf Coast: 21-11, #197
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Post by calihanmole on Mar 9, 2022 21:56:52 GMT -5
A few other teams have accepted Basketball Classic invites. App State was one. You have to search twitter to find them.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Mar 9, 2022 22:10:10 GMT -5
FWIW, the Detroit Mercy NET ranking is #231.
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Post by calihanmole on Mar 9, 2022 22:14:51 GMT -5
We are #231 in the NET. Certainly near some CBI and BC teams. Boy, having IUPUI, Green Bay, Robert Morris and Milwaukee in the conference really dragged down everyone else’s number, including us. Crazy to think that simply having IUPUI in our league might pop our CBI bubble dreams. That COVID bout that cost us home games also not helping.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Mar 9, 2022 22:23:05 GMT -5
We are #231 in the NET. Certainly near some CBI and BC teams. Boy, having IUPUI, Green Bay, Robert Morris and Milwaukee in the conference really dragged down everyone else’s number, including us. Crazy to think that simply having IUPUI in our league might pop our CBI bubble dreams. That COVID bout that cost us home games also not helping. I think having a losing record is the bigger issue than the crappy NET rank. The scheduled game with Rochester was cancelled because weather issues caused the Titans to play back-to-back league games, an unfortunate circumstance in the quest to be .500.
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 10, 2022 8:28:44 GMT -5
FWIW, the Detroit Mercy NET ranking is #231. FWIW, the Titans' rank under the old RPI measure is 193, vs. 232 this morning under NET.
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Post by ptctitan on Mar 10, 2022 12:10:53 GMT -5
Bellarmine news.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Mar 10, 2022 12:41:22 GMT -5
I hope Bellarmine takes out their frustrations by joining the Horizon League. Bellarmine played in the CBI last year, so I guess they could get a bid to that tournament again or maybe the BC.
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 10, 2022 23:05:16 GMT -5
Only one team clinched a bid tonight, with Colgate keelhauling the Navy to win the Patriot League bid. Of interest to Titan fans, Youngstown State has accepted a bid to the Basketball Classic (nee CIT).
Bids Earned through 3/10, with W-L record and NET rank:
NCAA Murray State (OVC): 30-2, #23 Loyola (MVC): 25-7, #25 Longwood (Big South): 26-6, #123 Chattanooga (Southern): 27-7, #62 Georgia State (Sunbelt): 18-10, #158 Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun): 22-10, #139 Wright State (Horizon): 20-13. #192 Delaware (CAA): 21-12, #135 Bryant (NEC): 22-9, #215 South Dakota State (Summit): 30-4, #64 Gonzaga (WCC): 26-3, #1 Colgate (Patriot): 23-11, #131
NIT Northern Iowa (MVC): 20-11, #102 Texas State (Sunbelt): 21-7, #127 Cleveland State (Horizon): 20-10, #185 Towson (CAA): 25-8, #74 Iona (MAAC): 25-7, #90.
CBI VMI: 16-15, #162. UNC-Ashville: 16-14, #224 UNC-Wilmington: 23-9, #177
Basketball Classic Youngstown State: 17-14, #248 Appalachian State: 19-14, #159 Florida Gulf Coast: 21-11, #197 Wofford: 19-13, #108
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Post by Commissioner on Mar 11, 2022 11:52:09 GMT -5
Looking at Lunardi's last 8 in, first 8 out this morning. He's not God, but he's pretty good.
Last 4 byes: Miami (23-9, NET Rank #63) Rutgers (18-12, #77) Michigan (17-14, #34) Notre Dame (21-10, #53)
Miami plays #7 Duke; Rutgers plays #24 Iowa. Probably all these two can do is help their position, so if Lunardi is right, they're probably good on being in the field (I suppose Rutgers would be hurt if they lose to Iowa like Northwestern did last night, but any reasonably close loss to Iowa isn't going to hurt them). Michigan and Notre Dame, OTOH, are now done--they can't help themselves. Moreover, we're far enough in to the tournaments that no one ahead of them is likely to suffer a loss that would drop them behind either of the two. At least two teams right behind them--Wyoming and Indiana--are in positions to score wins that could move them past the Irish and/or Wolverines.
Last 4 In: Wyoming (24-7, #44) Wake Forest (23-9, #45) Xavier (18-13, #40) Indiana (19-12, #41)
All of these 4 teams are in big danger of falling out of the field due to any bid stealers, or just someone winning one or two more big conference tournament games. Wake and Xavier are done for the year, and Xavier especially is in a weak position. An Indiana win over Illinois today almost certainly jumps them past both inactive teams, but even a close loss might do that. Meanwhile, there are other teams still playing that could pass them. If Wyoming beats Boise State, they can probably breath easy. A loss won't kill them, but it will be tight. I think, though, that they're in, barring a blowout loss today or a bunch of bid stealers. Basically, I suspect Xavier and Wake are out if the teams in the next group win today. And if Wyoming and Indiana, and 2 to 4 teams in the next group win today, Michigan and Notre Dame might want to hold off on travel plans.
First 4 Out: SMU (22-7, #48) Dayton (22-9, #52) Virginia Tech (21-12, #33) Oklahoma (18-14, #38)
All 4 of these teams can play their win, and any of them that wins today will probably pass up at least Xavier, and quite likely Wake Forest. SMU plays Tulsa today. A loss probably knocks them out; a win doesn't help much as a win, but it probably sets up an American Conference semi-final against Memphis, which, from a ranking stand point, is almost a no-lose situation, where a loss doesn't kill and a win puts them in. Dayton is in a similar position, but really, they probably have to win two--they play UMass today, a game that won't help them much, and then either Richmond or VCU. Either of those wins would be nice, and probably put them past Xavier and maybe Wake and Indiana, but a loss would really leave them on the edge. A loss today to UMass probably takes them out of the discussion. Tech plays North Carolina, and if they win, the winner of Duke/Miami. A win over UNC today may well be enough, but a loss would leave them in extremely dicey territory, too. Oklahoma is really interesting. After a 2-11 stretch, they've won 4 straight. The first three--West Virginia, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State--didn't move the needle a lot, but yesterday's win over Baylor sure did. They face Texas Tech today, a chance to take another big step forward.
Next 4 Out: BYU (20-10, #54) VCU (21-8, #51) Texas A&M (20-11, #55) Virginia (19-13, #80)
I figure BYU and Virginia are out. They're done playing and can't help themselves. Pretty tough to envision them moving past 5-6 teams, AND not being caught by anyone behind them. VCU is basically in the same position as Dayton, but even weaker--I think they have to reach the A10 final to have a shot. A&M, like Oklahoma, has come roaring back from a long funk--after losing 9 of 10, they've won 5 straight. A win today over Auburn may leapfrog past enough teams to make the field. But while a loss won't really hurt, that won't move them past anybody. So they've got to win today.
Teams that could fall into the at-large pool, i.e. currently, automatic qualifier spots are being held for these teams, that would be legit at-large bubble candidates if they lose: North Texas (22-5, #35). North Texas plays Louisiana Tech today, and if they win, the winner of UAB and Middle Tennessee. There's no killer loss there--Tech will be a quad 2 game. Currently Lunardi has them as a #12 seed, along with the last 4 teams in the at-large field, so it would be close. If they lose to Tech today, I think out. If they win, then lose in the CUSA final, I think they're in.
Davidson (24-5, #46). Davidson plays Fordham today in the A10 quarters. If they lose, I think they miss. But if they win only to lose in the semis (St. Bonaventure/St. Louis) or finals (probably Dayton or VCU) they should be OK, albeit very close. Of course, if VCU or Dayton wins the A10 tournament, you more or less swap Davidson with them on the bubble.
Those two are about the only bid steal possibilities left in the mid-major conferences--I suppose that if Vermont (26-7, #55) loses the American East final to UMBC, they might get consideration, but probably not.
Among the high majors, teams still playing that could steal a bid by winning the tournament (in addition to those bubble teams listed above): Penn State (don't see them winning three more)
Colorado
Mississipi State Vanderbilt
Cincinnati Tulane Temple Tulsa UCF
St. Louis St. Bonaventure Richmond UMass
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Post by motorcitysam on Mar 11, 2022 12:37:33 GMT -5
Looking at Lunardi's last 8 in, first 8 out this morning. He's not God, but he's pretty good. Last 4 byes: Miami (23-9, NET Rank #63) Rutgers (18-12, #77) Michigan (17-14, #34) Notre Dame (21-10, #53) Miami plays #7 Duke; Rutgers plays #24 Iowa. Probably all these two can do is help their position, so if Lunardi is right, they're probably good on being in the field (I suppose Rutgers would be hurt if they lose to Iowa like Northwestern did last night, but any reasonably close loss to Iowa isn't going to hurt them). Michigan and Notre Dame, OTOH, are now done--they can't help themselves. Moreover, we're far enough in to the tournaments that no one ahead of them is likely to suffer a loss that would drop them behind either of the two. At least two teams right behind them--Wyoming and Indiana--are in positions to score wins that could move them past the Irish and/or Wolverines. Last 4 In: Wyoming (24-7, #44) Wake Forest (23-9, #45) Xavier (18-13, #40) Indiana (19-12, #41) All of these 4 teams are in big danger of falling out of the field due to any bid stealers, or just someone winning one or two more big conference tournament games. Wake and Xavier are done for the year, and Xavier especially is in a weak position. An Indiana win over Illinois today almost certainly jumps them past both inactive teams, but even a close loss might do that. Meanwhile, there are other teams still playing that could pass them. If Wyoming beats Boise State, they can probably breath easy. A loss won't kill them, but it will be tight. I think, though, that they're in, barring a blowout loss today or a bunch of bid stealers. Basically, I suspect Xavier and Wake are out if the teams in the next group win today. And if Wyoming and Indiana, and 2 to 4 teams in the next group win today, Michigan and Notre Dame might want to hold off on travel plans. First 4 Out: SMU (22-7, #48) Dayton (22-9, #52) Virginia Tech (21-12, #33) Oklahoma (18-14, #38) All 4 of these teams can play their win, and any of them that wins today will probably pass up at least Xavier, and quite likely Wake Forest. SMU plays Tulsa today. A loss probably knocks them out; a win doesn't help much as a win, but it probably sets up an American Conference semi-final against Memphis, which, from a ranking stand point, is almost a no-lose situation, where a loss doesn't kill and a win puts them in. Dayton is in a similar position, but really, they probably have to win two--they play UMass today, a game that won't help them much, and then either Richmond or VCU. Either of those wins would be nice, and probably put them past Xavier and maybe Wake and Indiana, but a loss would really leave them on the edge. A loss today to UMass probably takes them out of the discussion. Tech plays North Carolina, and if they win, the winner of Duke/Miami. A win over UNC today may well be enough, but a loss would leave them in extremely dicey territory, too. Oklahoma is really interesting. After a 2-11 stretch, they've won 4 straight. The first three--West Virginia, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State--didn't move the needle a lot, but yesterday's win over Baylor sure did. They face Texas Tech today, a chance to take another big step forward. Next 4 Out: BYU (20-10, #54) VCU (21-8, #51) Texas A&M (20-11, #55) Virginia (19-13, #80) I figure BYU and Virginia are out. They're done playing and can't help themselves. Pretty tough to envision them moving past 5-6 teams, AND not being caught by anyone behind them. VCU is basically in the same position as Dayton, but even weaker--I think they have to reach the A10 final to have a shot. A&M, like Oklahoma, has come roaring back from a long funk--after losing 9 of 10, they've won 5 straight. A win today over Auburn may leapfrog past enough teams to make the field. But while a loss won't really hurt, that won't move them past anybody. So they've got to win today. Teams that could fall into the at-large pool, i.e. currently, automatic qualifier spots are being held for these teams, that would be legit at-large bubble candidates if they lose: North Texas (22-5, #35). North Texas plays Louisiana Tech today, and if they win, the winner of UAB and Middle Tennessee. There's no killer loss there--Tech will be a quad 2 game. Currently Lunardi has them as a #12 seed, along with the last 4 teams in the at-large field, so it would be close. If they lose to Tech today, I think out. If they win, then lose in the CUSA final, I think they're in. Davidson (24-5, #46). Davidson plays Fordham today in the A10 quarters. If they lose, I think they miss. But if they win only to lose in the semis (St. Bonaventure/St. Louis) or finals (probably Dayton or VCU) they should be OK, albeit very close. Of course, if VCU or Dayton wins the A10 tournament, you more or less swap Davidson with them on the bubble. Those two are about the only bid steal possibilities left in the mid-major conferences--I suppose that if Vermont (26-7, #55) loses the American East final to UMBC, they might get consideration, but probably not. Among the high majors, teams still playing that could steal a bid by winning the tournament (in addition to those bubble teams listed above): Penn State (don't see them winning three more) Colorado Mississipi State Vanderbilt Cincinnati Tulane Temple Tulsa UCF St. Louis St. Bonaventure Richmond UMass Good stuff.
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