Post by Commissioner on Jan 27, 2021 10:21:54 GMT -5
Youngstown State
Record: 8-8, 4-8 Horizon.
NET Rank: 274
RPI Rank: 219
Ken Pom: 248
When: 5:00 p.m. Friday, January 29, and Saturday, January 30.
Where: Youngstown (no fans allowed)
TV: ESPN 3
Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM; 570 AM WBKN for YSU feed through internet
This was supposed to be the breakthrough year for Jerrod Calhoun's Youngstown State Penguins. The Penguins had shown steady improvement in Calhoun's first three seasons, and last season' 18-15 record got them on the right side of .500 for the first time since 2013, and was their best record since finishing 19-11 in 2001. Calhoun returned his top 4 players: all-conference guard Darius Quisenberry, two-time all-defensive selection Garret Covington; and forwards Naz Bohannon and Michael Akuchie. The Penguins were picked to finish 2nd by the Horizon League Poll, and of 10 pre-season publications I tracked, none had the Penguins lower than 4th.
Yet, with the conference season more than halfway done, YSU finds itself in a familiar place--10th in the now 12 team Horizon. The season started out well enough, as the Penguins won 4 of their first 5, but Quisenberry was hobbled with an ankle injury and the Penguins lost a pair--with Quiz on the bench--to Cleveland State in late December. Quisenberry returned for 2 games against Green Bay during the first week of January--the Penguins split the pair--but was not 100% and has not played since. YSU is 3-4 in his absence, with one of those wins coming against Carlow College.
It's pretty easy to pinpoint the source of YSU's troubles: Quisenberry playing at less than 100% early, and not at all since January 2. Quisenberry has reportedly been seeing a specialist in the Dayton area and Coach Calhoun has repeatedly said he expects Quisenberry to play again this year, but has suggested no timetable for his return. I don't expect him to play this weekend, but if he does, YSU takes on a whole new dimension. YSU's biggest weakness has been shooting--they rank 252nd in the NCAA in field goal percentage, and 318 in three point percentage. And that's despite the fact that Bohannon, a 52% shooter, has taken far and away the most shots of anyone on the team. Quisenberry improves that situation directly through his own shooting, and by getting the team better shots as one of the league's best point guards. He also improves the defense. But YSU can be a dangerous team even without Quisenberry--they beat Wright State without him in early January--so the Titans are still going to have to be on their game.
With Quisenberry out, Bohannon, who entered the year as YSU's #2 all-time rebounder since joining D-1, is clearly YSU's key player. He's averaging 16.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in conference play. He's also a solid passer who can play the high post against the Titan zone. Michael Akuchie is a solid if somewhat inconsistent forward. Lately he's been playing well--he totaled 26 points and 20 rebounds last weekend against UIC. Akuchie can step out and hit the three, if the right Akuchie shows up. YSU is woefully short of three-point shooting, and Akuchie is supposed to fill that need. In YSU's 8 victories, he's 11-25 from three (44%). In 8 losses, he is 1-24 (4%). There's a good chance we'll know which Akuchie has shown up from his first 3 point attempt, and that may determine the course of the game.
The off guard/small forward is Garrett Covington, a reliable player and tenacious defender (as noted, two-time all-conference). While Covington isn't a huge scorer, he has hit double figures in 9 of YSU's 16 games, with a high of 24 against Cleveland State's tough defense. He's not a three point shooter, though--25$ last year, 22% this year. (I suppose noting those percentage means he'll make 7 of 12 attempts this weekend). Youngstown plays a fair amount of zone defense, but when they go man-to-man Covington will likely guard Antoine Davis. (YSU held Davis to 14 points on 5 of 20 shooting in the first game last year, but Davis dropped 34 on YSU in the rematch). The other starting guards should be a pair of freshmen, Shemar Rathan-Mayes, and Myles Hunter. Rathan has taken over the point duties in Quisenberry's absence, and is averaging 3.3 assists with a very respectable 1.8 A/TO ratio. At 33%, he leads the team in three point field goals, although he's been in a shooting slump, making just 4 of his last 25 attempts. To add more long-distance fire power, Calhoun recently inserted Hunter into the starting lineup, and the 6-5 guard from North Carolina has responded by making 45% of his threes in 4 starts (he's at 42.5% for the year).
Historically, Calhoun will usually play 9 or 10 guys for meaningful minutes, but recently he seems to have shortened his bench considerably. His top subs are a pair of 6-5 freshman guards, Daniel Ogoro and Alex Vargo, 6-4 junior guard Geoff Hamperian, and, when he wants some size, 6-8 William Dunn, another freshman who hails fro Quincy, Michigan. 6-8, 220 pound freshman Cheick Traore is the biggest man on the squad, but after getting quite a bit of PT in December, he's scarcely seen the floor the last two weekends.
If somebody--presumably one or more of Akuchie, Rathan, or Hunter--steps up to knock down threes over the Titan zone, Detroit could have problems. Bohannon gives them a strong low-post presence, and Covington is a slasher who can take it to the hoop. YSU is also a good rebounding team, and especially a good offensive rebounding team. Add to that the Titan preference for zone defense, and we could see a lot of offensive boards and second chance points for YSU. That said, if the Titans' shoot well, we ought to win. Covington's presence aside, YSU is simply not a good defensive team--indeed, they are a bad defensive team. Bohannon gives them some presence in the middle, but beyond those two, the rotation is porous. I'd really like to see us sweep and get to .500 in league play, and that's doable. Getting swept would be a real downer. Something tells me YSU--predicted to finish near the top of the league, remember--is not yet ready to give up the ghost, and a road split may be the best we get.
Probably YSU Starters
PG: Shemar Rathan-Mayes, 5-11 Fr (10.9 ppg, 3.3 apg, 33.3% 3Pt)
SG: Myles Hunter, 6-4 Fr (8.5 ppg, 42.5% 3Pt)
SF: Garrett Covington, 6-5 Sr (10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 22.2% 3Pt)
PF: Michael Akuchie, 6-8 Sr (8.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 24.5% 3Pt)
PF: Naz Bohannon, 6-6 Sr. (17.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 52.3% FG)
Bench
PG: Daniel Ogoro, 6-5 Fr (2.6 ppg, 1.5 apg)
SG: Alex Vargo, 6-5 Fr (5.1 ppg, 30.0% 3Pt)
SG: Geoffrey Hamperian, 6-4 Jr (3.5 ppg, 43.8% 3Pt)
F: William Dunn, 6-8 Fr (4.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 24.1% 3Pt)
PF: Cheick Traore, 6-8 Fr (1.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg)
Record: 8-8, 4-8 Horizon.
NET Rank: 274
RPI Rank: 219
Ken Pom: 248
When: 5:00 p.m. Friday, January 29, and Saturday, January 30.
Where: Youngstown (no fans allowed)
TV: ESPN 3
Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM; 570 AM WBKN for YSU feed through internet
This was supposed to be the breakthrough year for Jerrod Calhoun's Youngstown State Penguins. The Penguins had shown steady improvement in Calhoun's first three seasons, and last season' 18-15 record got them on the right side of .500 for the first time since 2013, and was their best record since finishing 19-11 in 2001. Calhoun returned his top 4 players: all-conference guard Darius Quisenberry, two-time all-defensive selection Garret Covington; and forwards Naz Bohannon and Michael Akuchie. The Penguins were picked to finish 2nd by the Horizon League Poll, and of 10 pre-season publications I tracked, none had the Penguins lower than 4th.
Yet, with the conference season more than halfway done, YSU finds itself in a familiar place--10th in the now 12 team Horizon. The season started out well enough, as the Penguins won 4 of their first 5, but Quisenberry was hobbled with an ankle injury and the Penguins lost a pair--with Quiz on the bench--to Cleveland State in late December. Quisenberry returned for 2 games against Green Bay during the first week of January--the Penguins split the pair--but was not 100% and has not played since. YSU is 3-4 in his absence, with one of those wins coming against Carlow College.
It's pretty easy to pinpoint the source of YSU's troubles: Quisenberry playing at less than 100% early, and not at all since January 2. Quisenberry has reportedly been seeing a specialist in the Dayton area and Coach Calhoun has repeatedly said he expects Quisenberry to play again this year, but has suggested no timetable for his return. I don't expect him to play this weekend, but if he does, YSU takes on a whole new dimension. YSU's biggest weakness has been shooting--they rank 252nd in the NCAA in field goal percentage, and 318 in three point percentage. And that's despite the fact that Bohannon, a 52% shooter, has taken far and away the most shots of anyone on the team. Quisenberry improves that situation directly through his own shooting, and by getting the team better shots as one of the league's best point guards. He also improves the defense. But YSU can be a dangerous team even without Quisenberry--they beat Wright State without him in early January--so the Titans are still going to have to be on their game.
With Quisenberry out, Bohannon, who entered the year as YSU's #2 all-time rebounder since joining D-1, is clearly YSU's key player. He's averaging 16.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in conference play. He's also a solid passer who can play the high post against the Titan zone. Michael Akuchie is a solid if somewhat inconsistent forward. Lately he's been playing well--he totaled 26 points and 20 rebounds last weekend against UIC. Akuchie can step out and hit the three, if the right Akuchie shows up. YSU is woefully short of three-point shooting, and Akuchie is supposed to fill that need. In YSU's 8 victories, he's 11-25 from three (44%). In 8 losses, he is 1-24 (4%). There's a good chance we'll know which Akuchie has shown up from his first 3 point attempt, and that may determine the course of the game.
The off guard/small forward is Garrett Covington, a reliable player and tenacious defender (as noted, two-time all-conference). While Covington isn't a huge scorer, he has hit double figures in 9 of YSU's 16 games, with a high of 24 against Cleveland State's tough defense. He's not a three point shooter, though--25$ last year, 22% this year. (I suppose noting those percentage means he'll make 7 of 12 attempts this weekend). Youngstown plays a fair amount of zone defense, but when they go man-to-man Covington will likely guard Antoine Davis. (YSU held Davis to 14 points on 5 of 20 shooting in the first game last year, but Davis dropped 34 on YSU in the rematch). The other starting guards should be a pair of freshmen, Shemar Rathan-Mayes, and Myles Hunter. Rathan has taken over the point duties in Quisenberry's absence, and is averaging 3.3 assists with a very respectable 1.8 A/TO ratio. At 33%, he leads the team in three point field goals, although he's been in a shooting slump, making just 4 of his last 25 attempts. To add more long-distance fire power, Calhoun recently inserted Hunter into the starting lineup, and the 6-5 guard from North Carolina has responded by making 45% of his threes in 4 starts (he's at 42.5% for the year).
Historically, Calhoun will usually play 9 or 10 guys for meaningful minutes, but recently he seems to have shortened his bench considerably. His top subs are a pair of 6-5 freshman guards, Daniel Ogoro and Alex Vargo, 6-4 junior guard Geoff Hamperian, and, when he wants some size, 6-8 William Dunn, another freshman who hails fro Quincy, Michigan. 6-8, 220 pound freshman Cheick Traore is the biggest man on the squad, but after getting quite a bit of PT in December, he's scarcely seen the floor the last two weekends.
If somebody--presumably one or more of Akuchie, Rathan, or Hunter--steps up to knock down threes over the Titan zone, Detroit could have problems. Bohannon gives them a strong low-post presence, and Covington is a slasher who can take it to the hoop. YSU is also a good rebounding team, and especially a good offensive rebounding team. Add to that the Titan preference for zone defense, and we could see a lot of offensive boards and second chance points for YSU. That said, if the Titans' shoot well, we ought to win. Covington's presence aside, YSU is simply not a good defensive team--indeed, they are a bad defensive team. Bohannon gives them some presence in the middle, but beyond those two, the rotation is porous. I'd really like to see us sweep and get to .500 in league play, and that's doable. Getting swept would be a real downer. Something tells me YSU--predicted to finish near the top of the league, remember--is not yet ready to give up the ghost, and a road split may be the best we get.
Probably YSU Starters
PG: Shemar Rathan-Mayes, 5-11 Fr (10.9 ppg, 3.3 apg, 33.3% 3Pt)
SG: Myles Hunter, 6-4 Fr (8.5 ppg, 42.5% 3Pt)
SF: Garrett Covington, 6-5 Sr (10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 22.2% 3Pt)
PF: Michael Akuchie, 6-8 Sr (8.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 24.5% 3Pt)
PF: Naz Bohannon, 6-6 Sr. (17.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 52.3% FG)
Bench
PG: Daniel Ogoro, 6-5 Fr (2.6 ppg, 1.5 apg)
SG: Alex Vargo, 6-5 Fr (5.1 ppg, 30.0% 3Pt)
SG: Geoffrey Hamperian, 6-4 Jr (3.5 ppg, 43.8% 3Pt)
F: William Dunn, 6-8 Fr (4.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 24.1% 3Pt)
PF: Cheick Traore, 6-8 Fr (1.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg)