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Post by Commissioner on Feb 15, 2021 10:44:52 GMT -5
Honest question...is any other conference approaching tourney seedings this way, with a double-secret formula that may or may not make any sense? I am not aware of any such silliness in any other responsible conference where the tournament seeding of a member school's team would be based upon anything but its finish in the regular season standings. I checked the websites of the A-10, the Summit League and the Sun Belt and could not find anything other than the usual tiebreakers for seeding. I wouldn't really object if they just openly said, "while the regular season standings will be the primary factor in seeding, because of the unbalanced scheduling, we have appointed a commmittee [sportswriters, retired coaches, the Horizon Roundtable guys, who cares] that may make adjustments in seeding based on head to head play and strength of conference schedule." I wouldn't favor it, but it would be OK. This secret formula stuff is ridiculous. And by the way, would anyone really think the actual standings are horribly off the mark or unfair: 1. Cleveland State 14-4 (holds traditional tie breaker by virtue of 2 wins over NKU; WSU plays NKU this weekend and could claim tie-breaker with a sweep) 2. Wright State 14-4 3. Northern Kentucky 10-6 4. Detroit 8-6 5. Oakland 9-9 6. YSU 8-10 7. IUPUI 6-8 8. Milwaukee 6-9 9. Green Bay 7-11 10. UIC 5-9 11. Fort Wayne 5-13 12. Robert Morris 3-10 In the virtual tie between YSU and IUPUI, YSU would still hold tie-breaker by virtue of win over WSU. YSU/IUPUI play two this weekend. Milwaukee might have a strong claim to be seeded above IUPUI. They're a half game behind the Jags, but took 3 of 4 from IUPUI in the season, and have a win over CSU. The virtual tie between Green Bay and UIC may be decided when they play this weekend. If they split, GB would have a slight winning percentage advantage and would hold tie breaker by virtue of win over NKU.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2021 12:13:58 GMT -5
Here comes the pages of complaints:
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Post by titantarheel on Feb 15, 2021 13:30:44 GMT -5
Northern KY is 10-6, Oakland is 9-9....so of course the HL has put OU ahead of NKU. Okay.
UD 8-6, YSU 8-10...so of course YSU is ahead of us. Okay. Even IF we played those extra 4 games, and lets say we lost them only then would we be 8-10 and have the same record. AND we'd still have in our back pocket the fact we are 2-0 against Youngstown. Makes no freaking sense. Not playing a game is counting more than a loss. Fantastic HL. I'll also point out that LAST week YSU was #5 and we were #6, and beating Youngstown twice AT their place wasn't big enough to pass them. I don't know.
Similarly, UIC is 5-9 and FWayne is 5-13 and yet FW is ahead of UIC, although FW swept UIC this season. But again it would take UIC losing the 4 games they didn't play until that tie breaker came into play and went Fort Wayne's way.
GB 7-11 up ahead of IUPUI 6-8 and Milwaukee 6-9. GB lost both games to Milwaukee and split with IUPUI.
Embarrassing disaster. It's gross. And yes, I'm more frustrated since we are getting screwed by this but even still it clearly lacks sense and their nifty formula just can't be regarded as anything but a joke.
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Post by upbasketballfan on Feb 15, 2021 13:40:30 GMT -5
Here comes the pages of complaints: The secret about this formula is that there is no formula it just gives the league office unquestionable control. We have nothing to complain about. We cling to stupidity so when we experience it we should expect it. Our reasoning being we must be ripest garbage in a garbage league before we try to climb out of the dumpster. This whole thing is kind of like a self flogging.
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Post by ptctitan on Feb 15, 2021 14:34:02 GMT -5
Clearly, the HL wants us and OU to play a 5th time this season.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 15, 2021 14:52:42 GMT -5
It's all games played--that's obviously the #1 trait. How far ahead would the Titans have to finish to move above YSU or Oakland? Well, we're up on Fort Wayne, which played 18 games. They're 5 games behind us in the standings, and we beat them twice. So we know that's enough. But wait... we're three up on Green Bay in the standings, and beat them twice. So we know that that's enough. But we're only two up on YSU, and beat them twice. So that seems to be the break point. If a team has played 4 more games, you have to be up at least 3 games on them in the standings, including two wins over that team.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 16, 2021 18:58:32 GMT -5
From Tony Paul in the Detroit News:
“... Oakland coach Greg Kampe defended his team being seeded ahead of Detroit Mercy in the current Horizon League tournament projections, pointing out the Titans will have played 10 home games out of 16, and will have played only seven of 11 league foes. ‘No mathematical formula in the world is going to reward you for that,’ Kampe said.”
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 16, 2021 19:34:34 GMT -5
From Tony Paul in the Detroit News: “... Oakland coach Greg Kampe defended his team being seeded ahead of Detroit Mercy in the current Horizon League tournament projections, pointing out the Titans will have played 10 home games out of 16, and will have played only seven of 11 league foes. ‘No mathematical formula in the world is going to reward you for that,’ Kampe said.” I don't object to OU being seeded ahead of us. They beat us 3 of 4. By the end of this weekend, they'll have played 12 of 20 conference games on the road, while we'll have played just 6 of 16 on the road. They beat Wright State. There's an argument to put us ahead of them--we've got a better overall record; our schedule of opponents has been tougher (not accounting for home/road); they've got embarrassing losses to teams at the bottom of the league (Robert Morris, 2 to UIC, 2 to Green Bay)--but I can see the call. It's YSU that really raises eyebrows. And may be Northern Kentucky, which has played a very soft conference schedule (although that will get a lot tougher with 2 games at Wright State this weekend). Here is a little table with the criteria the league claims: Games Played, Winning Percentage, Road Wins, Strength of Schedule. Team | Games | Record | Pct. | Home | Road | SOS* | Oakland | 18 | 9-9 | .500 | 4-4 | 5-5 | 128-118 .520 | Northern Kentucky | 16 | 10-6 | .625 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 98--126 .438 | Youngstown State | 18 | 8-10 | .444 | 4-4 | 4-6 | 134-124 .519 | Detroit | 14 | 8-6 | .571 | 4-4 | 4-2 | 118--98 .546 |
* SOS is winning percentage of conference opponents, after removing games against team. YSU has played 4 more games than we have--all road games. Assume if we played the 4, we would lose them all, we'd have the same record as YSU, the same home and road records, and the two wins over YSU--at YSU. Also, note that we've played the toughest schedule of these 4 teams, so our 4 extra games would be against relatively weak teams. NKU is also interesting. They've only played 4 games against teams in the top half of the league, and their record is 1-3. While we've benefited from a home-heavy schedule, we've played 10 of our 14 games against teams in the top half of the league, with a 4-6 record. We have no bad losses, unlike OU, NKU (2 home losses to IUPUI, road loss to Green Bay), or YSU (home losses to Green Bay and UIC).
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 16, 2021 19:58:57 GMT -5
Yeah, we are probably getting a bit screwed and I would rather have the bye, but I hope the coach/team just focus on whatever bracket path they are assigned to take. The four teams that get a bye will go a stretch of nine days without playing, that ultimately may not be a good thing. At minimum Detroit Mercy should get to host a first round game against one of the bottom four teams — hopefully that will allow a “tuneup” opportunity that could propel the Titans to even greater things on the way to Indy.
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Post by titantarheel on Feb 17, 2021 7:18:33 GMT -5
For what it’s worth...the WCC just announced yesterday they are following the HL lead (well they didn’t say that but their actions are). They are working with Ken Pom to seed their tourney based on a formula. www.slipperstillfits.com/2021/2/16/22286919/wcc-tournament-kenpomPs- kampe is wrong, we should be ahead of OU in seeding. Pps- i don’t think the Titan players will care or dwell on this. They will just play the games that are lined up for them. Who knows, for motivation maybe coach Davis could do something like put a Better Made on each players shoulder before the tourney kicks off.
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Post by ptctitan on Feb 17, 2021 8:40:40 GMT -5
If KenPom were the deciding factor in the HL formula, then we'd be in the top 4. It is clear that we will never be above #5 even if we sweep RMU this weekend. The imbalance between home and road games also appears to be the main reason why Oakland is #3 and NKU is #4 even though NKU has a winning record. The big thing is that we win this weekend so we finish with a winning record in the HL for the first time since Ray's 2012-13 regular season championship team. Then, we have a built-in complaint for the entire off-season when the league seeds us 6th behind YSU. If we win this weekend, then we will likely be seeded 5th or 6th and play either RMU or PFW at home in the first round. Then, at Oakland or at NKU in the quarterfinals if we win our home game. Winning both of those games would get us to the semifinals where we would play either WSU or CSU.
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 17, 2021 12:48:32 GMT -5
If KenPom were the deciding factor in the HL formula, then we'd be in the top 4. It is clear that we will never be above #5 even if we sweep RMU this weekend. The imbalance between home and road games also appears to be the main reason why Oakland is #3 and NKU is #4 even though NKU has a winning record. The big thing is that we win this weekend so we finish with a winning record in the HL for the first time since Ray's 2012-13 regular season championship team. Then, we have a built-in complaint for the entire off-season when the league seeds us 6th behind YSU. If we win this weekend, then we will likely be seeded 5th or 6th and play either RMU or PFW at home in the first round. Then, at Oakland or at NKU in the quarterfinals if we win our home game. Winning both of those games would get us to the semifinals where we would play either WSU or CSU. and in an earlier post Agreed. Though I've discussed it as much as anyone here, ultimately this is fan grist. The players and coaches have to practice and get ready for games. If they're taking more than a passing interest in this stuff, then we've got real problems. Also as Rogo noted: We're playing the last place team at home this weekend, so there is zero chance for us to move up unless we win while teams ahead of us lose, and we would need to pass two teams to get a first round bye. Besides, I'd rather watch the Titans play. So in the end, we've probably got more to lose than to gain this weekend, and the important thing is to take care of business. All that said, if we take two and OU--playing at Milwaukee--loses, we'll end up 2-3 ahead of them in the standings, with a better road winning percentage and a slightly tougher conference slate (though that's before adjusting for home/road games). Likewise, we enter the weekend 2 up on YSU (which hosts IUPUI). So if we sweep and they lose, we're up 3-4 games, have a better road record, would finish ahead of them in the standings even if you figured all 4 of our non-made-up games would be losses, and would have swept them in Youngstown. If we gain even 1 game on YSU this weekend, how can they be seeded above us when, if all our unplayed games are counted as losses, we'd still be ahead of them, and have the same road record? NKU is most interesting. They'd have to lose twice for us to overtake them, but that could happen--they're hosting Wright State. They will play the weakest schedule of all the contenders, and--if they're swept--have just 1 win against the top 6 teams in the league. Anyway, bottom line: just win, baby!
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Post by Commissioner on Feb 17, 2021 13:32:20 GMT -5
It only gets worse. From the Dayton Daily News:
So if CSU and Wright State finish with identical records (and they split their season series), only the team chosen by the magical secret formula gets to say it won the regular season?
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Post by motorcitysam on Feb 17, 2021 14:06:29 GMT -5
That's jacked up.
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Post by Rogobob77 on Feb 17, 2021 14:10:56 GMT -5
They didn’t want to shell out money for two trophies.
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