Game Preview: Wright State, December 19/20
Dec 17, 2020 22:17:20 GMT -5
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Post by Commissioner on Dec 17, 2020 22:17:20 GMT -5
Wright State
When: Saturday, December 19, 2:00 p.m.
Sunday, December 20, 2:00 p.m.
Where: Calihan Hall (no fans)
TV: ESPN3
Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM
Also WRZX 106.5 FM (Dayton)
The HL’s preseason favorite and defending regular season champ, Wright State, comes to Historic Calihan Hall for two this weekend. This is going to be a strange year, with the double home series, and no one knowing just how valuable the home court advantage is with no fans. A Titan weekend sweep would effectively give them a three game lead over the Horizon favorite, because we’d not only be up two in the standings, but would control the tie breaker. Similarly, a double defeat would effectively put us three behind the Raiders. Warren Nolan’s system predicts the Raiders to finish the season 22-1--in other words, to go unbeaten in league play. I don’t see that happening, but it does indicate what a daunting task gaining three games on them would be. Lose both, and any title hopes may be gone just two games in to conference play.
Wright State was the conference favorite in every pre-season poll I tracked this year. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/21892/thread. The main reason is 6-8 Senior Center Loudon Love, the defending HL Player of the Year, and the unanimous pre-season pick to repeat as such. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/21900/thread. Love hasn’t disappointed this year: In three non-conference games, he’s averaged 12.7 point, 13 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks, while shooting 55% from the floor.
Love has an able supporting cast, led by 6-6 sophomore guard Tanner Holden. Holden is a stat stuffer, a guy who does a bit of everything on the floor. 6-6 transfer Tim Finke and 6-5 junior Jaylon Hall give Wright State 2 more big guards. They make WSU a tough team to guard, as all three can hit the three, and have both the size to overpower small guards and the quickness to beat many forwards. Holden and Finke are good rebounders, too, and combined with Love and back-up forward Grant Basile, the Raiders have dominated the boards in their early games. Sophomore Trey Calvin is sort of the point guard—-that is, he handles the ball more than anyone else, but Coach Scott Nagy doesn’t rely on him in the same way as he did Gary Gentry in the last couple years. Holden in particular will share ball-handling duties.
Wright State is not deep. Sophomore forward Grant Basile is the only guy you can count on to see much court time after the starting five. Basile was a member of the conference all-freshman team last year (as was Holden) and he’d be starting on almost any other Horizon team. He's a very solid rebounder and low post scoring threat. But there’s not much else. Watch for freshman guard Alex Huibregtse and junior forward James Manns. Huibregste is averaging over 17 minutes per game, but his time has dropped in each of WSU’s games, from 25 to 18 to 9 minutes, and he really hasn’t shown much—he has a total of 4 points, 3 rebounds and an assist, and is 1-8 from the floor. Manns is an extremely one-dimensional player who has never been able to establish himself in Nagy’s rotation, and he’s unlikely to play more than a few minutes. But if Wright State needs points in a hurry—well, that’s Manns’ one dimension: the guy can score. Last year he averaged over 29 points per 40 minutes played, shooting 44% from three and 88% from the line. That a guy with those offensive numbers can't get regular time tells you something about the rest of his game, especially on defense. So we’ll not see much of him unless the Raiders just can’t get any offense going. Freshman guard Andre Harris may also see some time.
Wright State has played three games this year. They were whipped 80-64 by Marshall in the season opener, but Marshall’s pretty solid, with a 4-1 record that includes a 14 point win over Ohio U. The Raiders have since clubbed a couple of MAC squads, Miami (which is 2-2 in the early going after being picked for last in the MAC East) and Bowling Green (4-2, picked for 2d in the MAC East).
The Raiders are the clear favorites, and deserve to be (there’s no spread yet from Vegas, but KenPom favors the Raiders by 5). They enter the game with an early NET rank of 127 and an impressive RPI of 33, although those numbers don’t mean much so early. Other than center (admittedly a pretty big "other") I do think the Titans potentially match up pretty well. Fraser, Johnson, and Kuol are big guards who can go inside or out with the trio of Holden, Hall, and Finke. Whether the Titans can stop Loudon and Basile underneath is another matter, and it may depend on how quickly Waterman, Brandon, and Buay Koka can blend in. The flip side is whether the Raiders can stop Antoine Davis. Davis has averaged 29.8 points in 4 career games against the Raiders, including 28 and 24 in last year’s match-ups. That was when the raiders had Gentry, a better defensive guard than anyone on this year’s roster. Antoine’s been off in the early going, but it’s just a matter of time, no? Meanwhile, Dwayne Rose was also effective against WSU last year, scoring 32 points in the two games. But the Titans had no answer for Love, and it’s not clear they’ll have one this year. Waterman hasn’t played a game in a over a year and lacks bulk if Love can isolate and back him down; Isiani has been playing well but just isn’t as good as Love; Koka adds bulk and depth, but is new to the system; and Brandon hasn't played yet this year, and it may be he's not quite 100 percent yet. Hopefully Coach Davis can figure out a team approach to shut Love (and Basile) down.
The Raiders are not deep, as we’ve noted, and playing back-to-back games may be tough. OTOH, they’ve played just once since December 5, so they’re probably not on the edge of exhaustion heading into the week-end. A double defeat will be disappointing, but will hardly mean the Titans aren’t capable of a solid, first division finish. A pair of wins will mark the Titans as the team to beat. And a split? I’ll take that, though it’s not my preferred choice.
As a bit of a historical note, back when the Titans were in the Missouri Valley Conference, we used to play conference rival Houston in back-to-back games. One year the Cougars would come to Detroit for a weekend and play two; the next year the Titans would go to Houston and do the same (one reason the Titans dropped out of the MVC was the travel). I don’t know that we’ve done that with any team since.
Wright State has won 12 of the last 14 meetings, and now leads the all-time series 34-27.
Projected Raider Starters:
PG: Trey Calvin, 6-0 Soph. (12.3 ppg, 2.3 apg, 40.0% 3PtFG)
SG: Tanner Holden, 6-6 Soph. (12.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G/SF: Jaylon Hall, 6-5 RS Jr. (8.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.7 apg)
G/SF: Tim Finke, 6-6 RS Soph. (11.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
C: Loudon Love 6-8 Sr. (12.7 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.7 bpg)
Bench
G: Alex Huibregtse, 6-3 Fr. (1.3 ppg)
G: Andre Harris, 6-3 Fr. (3.0 ppg)
F: James Manns, 6-7 RS Jr. (1.0 ppg)
PF: Grant Basile, 6-9 RS Soph. (11.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg)
When: Saturday, December 19, 2:00 p.m.
Sunday, December 20, 2:00 p.m.
Where: Calihan Hall (no fans)
TV: ESPN3
Radio: WLQV 1500 AM & 92.7 FM
Also WRZX 106.5 FM (Dayton)
The HL’s preseason favorite and defending regular season champ, Wright State, comes to Historic Calihan Hall for two this weekend. This is going to be a strange year, with the double home series, and no one knowing just how valuable the home court advantage is with no fans. A Titan weekend sweep would effectively give them a three game lead over the Horizon favorite, because we’d not only be up two in the standings, but would control the tie breaker. Similarly, a double defeat would effectively put us three behind the Raiders. Warren Nolan’s system predicts the Raiders to finish the season 22-1--in other words, to go unbeaten in league play. I don’t see that happening, but it does indicate what a daunting task gaining three games on them would be. Lose both, and any title hopes may be gone just two games in to conference play.
Wright State was the conference favorite in every pre-season poll I tracked this year. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/21892/thread. The main reason is 6-8 Senior Center Loudon Love, the defending HL Player of the Year, and the unanimous pre-season pick to repeat as such. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/21900/thread. Love hasn’t disappointed this year: In three non-conference games, he’s averaged 12.7 point, 13 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks, while shooting 55% from the floor.
Love has an able supporting cast, led by 6-6 sophomore guard Tanner Holden. Holden is a stat stuffer, a guy who does a bit of everything on the floor. 6-6 transfer Tim Finke and 6-5 junior Jaylon Hall give Wright State 2 more big guards. They make WSU a tough team to guard, as all three can hit the three, and have both the size to overpower small guards and the quickness to beat many forwards. Holden and Finke are good rebounders, too, and combined with Love and back-up forward Grant Basile, the Raiders have dominated the boards in their early games. Sophomore Trey Calvin is sort of the point guard—-that is, he handles the ball more than anyone else, but Coach Scott Nagy doesn’t rely on him in the same way as he did Gary Gentry in the last couple years. Holden in particular will share ball-handling duties.
Wright State is not deep. Sophomore forward Grant Basile is the only guy you can count on to see much court time after the starting five. Basile was a member of the conference all-freshman team last year (as was Holden) and he’d be starting on almost any other Horizon team. He's a very solid rebounder and low post scoring threat. But there’s not much else. Watch for freshman guard Alex Huibregtse and junior forward James Manns. Huibregste is averaging over 17 minutes per game, but his time has dropped in each of WSU’s games, from 25 to 18 to 9 minutes, and he really hasn’t shown much—he has a total of 4 points, 3 rebounds and an assist, and is 1-8 from the floor. Manns is an extremely one-dimensional player who has never been able to establish himself in Nagy’s rotation, and he’s unlikely to play more than a few minutes. But if Wright State needs points in a hurry—well, that’s Manns’ one dimension: the guy can score. Last year he averaged over 29 points per 40 minutes played, shooting 44% from three and 88% from the line. That a guy with those offensive numbers can't get regular time tells you something about the rest of his game, especially on defense. So we’ll not see much of him unless the Raiders just can’t get any offense going. Freshman guard Andre Harris may also see some time.
Wright State has played three games this year. They were whipped 80-64 by Marshall in the season opener, but Marshall’s pretty solid, with a 4-1 record that includes a 14 point win over Ohio U. The Raiders have since clubbed a couple of MAC squads, Miami (which is 2-2 in the early going after being picked for last in the MAC East) and Bowling Green (4-2, picked for 2d in the MAC East).
The Raiders are the clear favorites, and deserve to be (there’s no spread yet from Vegas, but KenPom favors the Raiders by 5). They enter the game with an early NET rank of 127 and an impressive RPI of 33, although those numbers don’t mean much so early. Other than center (admittedly a pretty big "other") I do think the Titans potentially match up pretty well. Fraser, Johnson, and Kuol are big guards who can go inside or out with the trio of Holden, Hall, and Finke. Whether the Titans can stop Loudon and Basile underneath is another matter, and it may depend on how quickly Waterman, Brandon, and Buay Koka can blend in. The flip side is whether the Raiders can stop Antoine Davis. Davis has averaged 29.8 points in 4 career games against the Raiders, including 28 and 24 in last year’s match-ups. That was when the raiders had Gentry, a better defensive guard than anyone on this year’s roster. Antoine’s been off in the early going, but it’s just a matter of time, no? Meanwhile, Dwayne Rose was also effective against WSU last year, scoring 32 points in the two games. But the Titans had no answer for Love, and it’s not clear they’ll have one this year. Waterman hasn’t played a game in a over a year and lacks bulk if Love can isolate and back him down; Isiani has been playing well but just isn’t as good as Love; Koka adds bulk and depth, but is new to the system; and Brandon hasn't played yet this year, and it may be he's not quite 100 percent yet. Hopefully Coach Davis can figure out a team approach to shut Love (and Basile) down.
The Raiders are not deep, as we’ve noted, and playing back-to-back games may be tough. OTOH, they’ve played just once since December 5, so they’re probably not on the edge of exhaustion heading into the week-end. A double defeat will be disappointing, but will hardly mean the Titans aren’t capable of a solid, first division finish. A pair of wins will mark the Titans as the team to beat. And a split? I’ll take that, though it’s not my preferred choice.
As a bit of a historical note, back when the Titans were in the Missouri Valley Conference, we used to play conference rival Houston in back-to-back games. One year the Cougars would come to Detroit for a weekend and play two; the next year the Titans would go to Houston and do the same (one reason the Titans dropped out of the MVC was the travel). I don’t know that we’ve done that with any team since.
Wright State has won 12 of the last 14 meetings, and now leads the all-time series 34-27.
Projected Raider Starters:
PG: Trey Calvin, 6-0 Soph. (12.3 ppg, 2.3 apg, 40.0% 3PtFG)
SG: Tanner Holden, 6-6 Soph. (12.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G/SF: Jaylon Hall, 6-5 RS Jr. (8.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.7 apg)
G/SF: Tim Finke, 6-6 RS Soph. (11.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
C: Loudon Love 6-8 Sr. (12.7 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.7 bpg)
Bench
G: Alex Huibregtse, 6-3 Fr. (1.3 ppg)
G: Andre Harris, 6-3 Fr. (3.0 ppg)
F: James Manns, 6-7 RS Jr. (1.0 ppg)
PF: Grant Basile, 6-9 RS Soph. (11.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg)